The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I figure the Giants will absolutely draft a QB. It will just be a question of which one and where as they will be able to move around the board depending on who they like.

 

They will be fine eating Jones cap hit for one year. I am certain they wish they never made the deal but it seemed right at he time. 

 

Although...they do have Devito who looked like Joe Montana last week lol

 

 

 

Drake and Caleb would be a no brainer for them if they land with one of the top picks.  I'd put it at just about 100% if they pick that high judging by buzz.

 

But thinking about it, you are probably right that they take a QB regardless of where they land -- Penix, Daniels, McCarthy.  They have a new regime.  They had a good first year.  Bad 2nd.  They'd have a hard time selling the future by doubling down on Daniel Jones.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Drake and Caleb would be a no brainer for them if they land with one of the top picks.  I'd put it at just about 100% if they pick that high judging by buzz.

 

But thinking about it, you are probably right that they take a QB regardless of where they land -- Penix, Daniels, McCarthy.  They have a new regime.  They had a good first year.  Bad 2nd.  They'd have a hard time selling the future by doubling down on Daniel Jones.

Yes, I could see them liking one of the other QBs and they would have a year to groom them with Dimes and Devito maybe too. that would also allow them to build their team with other picks.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Yes, I could see them liking one of the other QBs and they would have a year to groom them with Dimes and Devito maybe too. that would also allow them to build their team with other picks.

 

Yep, Daniel Jones is basically under contract for one more year where you got an escape.  But with an ACL he might not be ready to start. 

 

Giant fans are as sick of losing as this fan base.  They aren't walking away from Caleb or Drake.  i don't think Schoen sent double the scouts that any other team did to watch Drake for show.    Ditto him personally going to watch these QBs.  There might be more smoke centering around the Giants at them wanting a QB than any other team.

 

Yeah i think even if they don't pick top 2, they are likely hitting QB.  Only pause for them is Marvin Harrison Jr., can you pass him over if he's there lets say they are picking 3? 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Riggo#44]

14 hours ago, method man said:

 

This is one of the many reasons I want Ben Johnson. He has a reputation of thinking "he knows nothing" and takes a lot of feedback from those around him. Read about his working relationship with Goff. What's interesting about BJ is that he has played under a lot of coaches and, as a result, scene a lot of different schemes. McVay has been in some version of the WCO his entire career

 

I saw that about Johnson too and had heart bubbles. My biggest gripe with him is his lack of flexibility and adaptability--he's trying to run Reid's offense without Reid's parts. He's been marginally better than Turner with a much better QB.

[Going Commando]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

With the teams right now in the top 8 of the draft, removing us.  The only likely shot is if the Bears end up with #1 and #2.  So for the Caleb discussion, to me its ALL about the Bears losing, nothing else smacks me as having any reality.  Only other long shot is if Kyler Murray just kills it in the home stretch where the Cards brass has to think twice, but if that happens, I don't see how the Cards will have that top 2 pick.

 

Look at the length and dead money left on Murray's contract.  They can't move on from him for years without burning somewhere between a third and a quarter of their total salary cap for a player who wouldn't be on the team.  They won't be able to trade that contract and get someone to take on his money for years either.  It's financially untenable for them to draft a QB in the first right now.  They either have to pick one of the weapons and sell it as supporting a near term future with Murray, or even better, auction off the pick for a boatload of future firsts.  I absolutely think they would deal the #2 if they got it, regardless of how well Murray plays.  They are stuck with him in the same way Denver would have been stuck with Russell Wilson if they were in the same boat.

 

I wonder if the Giants would trade with us, but for them the calculus wouldn't be Daniel Jones and Marvin Harrison or Drake Maye.  It'd be Daniel Jones and three first round picks vs Drake Maye.  The reality for them is Schoen and Daboll have to win in 24 to keep their jobs.  They're already committed to Jones financially, and selling Jones plus three firsts as their best chance at a quick turnaround is no tougher than selling Drake Maye plus eating Jones's contract.

 

I do think there is a chance that the Giants try and trade up for Caleb Williams though.  If they get #2, I could see them trying it.  But I can't see Chicago saying yes unless they don't really have a preference between the two prospects.  I could see Williams moving the needle for the Giants a lot more than Maye.  He's so spectacular and pedigreed that I do think starting over with him and eating the Jones contract would be an easier sell for Schoen and Daboll.

[Going Commando]

31 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Yes, I could see them liking one of the other QBs and they would have a year to groom them with Dimes and Devito maybe too. that would also allow them to build their team with other picks.

They don't have a year to red shirt a QB prospect and keep losing.  They are already going to have a wave of firings on the coaching staff after this season.  Both Martindale and Kafka are going to be fired.  If they don't win in '24, Schoen and Daboll will be in the next wave.

 

They're in a precarious spot right now, with basically only a year more of equity than our lame duck staff, and Saquon probably leaving in free agency.  They need an immediate turnaround, and they're probably not actually going to get it with any of the rookie QBs.  I think it'd actually be a relief for them to finish third and get Marvin Harrison and say look our hands were tied instead of getting #2 and feeling obligated to pick Maye and stare down the barrel of another losing season in 24.  That's why I think the #2 pick can be had with a big trade offer, even if they get it.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Look at the length and dead money left on Murray's contract.  They can't move on from him for years without burning somewhere between a third and a quarter of their total salary cap for a player who wouldn't be on the team.  They won't be able to trade that contract and get someone to take on his money for years either.  It's financially untenable for them to draft a QB in the first right now.  They either have to pick one of the weapons and sell it as supporting a near term future with Murray, or even better, auction off the pick for a boatload of future firsts.  I absolutely think they would deal the #2 if they got it, regardless of how well Murray plays.  They are stuck with him in the same way Denver would have been stuck with Russell Wilson if they were in the same boat.

 

I wonder if the Giants would trade with us, but for them the calculus wouldn't be Daniel Jones and Marvin Harrison or Drake Maye.  It'd be Daniel Jones and three first round picks vs Drake Maye.  The reality for them is Schoen and Daboll have to win in 24 to keep their jobs.  They're already committed to Jones financially, and selling Jones plus three firsts as their best chance at a quick turnaround is no tougher than selling Drake Maye plus eating Jones's contract.

 

I do think there is a chance that the Giants try and trade up for Caleb Williams though.  If they get #2, I could see them trying it.  But I can't see Chicago saying yes unless they don't really have a preference between the two prospects.  I could see Williams moving the needle for the Giants a lot more than Maye.  He's so spectacular and pedigreed that I do think starting over with him and eating the Jones contract would be an easier sell for Schoen and Daboll.

 

Some think the Cards would just have to cut Murray and deal with cap consequences if they can't trade him.  The cap hit next year is insane.  But then it gets much easier.  But plenty of buzz that the Cards would take a QB.

 

As for the Giants.  Their whole season has evolved at least from their fan base that I've witnessed, some within my family and the NY media -- that we screwed up on that Daniel Jones contract but thankfully there is an out after a year and we might get a generational QB so life isn't too bad.  That is coupled with no team seems to be covering those two QBs scouting wise more than the Giants. 

 

So with all of that they'd blow off the pick and also trade it to a division rival?  It would be unprecedented and maybe the most wild off season transaction I'd have ever witnessed.  Shocking wouldn't even cover it for me. 

 

As for Schoen and Daboll is in win now mode and that might have them double down on Jones.  At least judging by clippings from the NY media and the fans I've been exposed to -- that trsaction alone would make their seat super hot by doubling down on Daniel Jones and forgoing Caleb or Drake at best, at worst they will become instant hated punchlines.  It would be their version of Josh Harris saying on 2nd thought he decided to double up and give Ron Rivera a new 5 year contract.  Fans would go ape.  

Edited November 21, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

They don't have a year to red shirt a QB prospect and keep losing.  They are already going to have a wave of firings on the coaching staff after this season.  Both Martindale and Kafka are going to be fired.  If they don't win in '24, Schoen and Daboll will be in the next wave.

 

 

 

Daniel Jones took one season off of being a punchline in NY last year.  He regained that status again this year.

 

Daboll was the Coach of the Year last year and they won a playoff game.  This year they got ravaged by injuries. 

 

I think somehow the ownership would be patient with them as to Drake or Caleb. 

 

If they doubled down on Daniel and passed over Caleb and Drake -- Schoen will be instantly clowned by their fans and the media in ways that would make the clowning on Gettleman look tame in comparison.

 

I don't think Daboll is stupid.  He'd get the politics of it which would be mockery on sterioids to make that move.  

 

And even if I played along with the wild fantasy, zero chance Schoen would do this AND trade a dude who is considered a stud young QBs to a division rival.

 

I get you are excited about the prospect about doing this but IMO you will drive youself crazy if you keep imagining all these teams throwing away the opportunity to draft these guys.  You've followed the draft for eons.  How often have we heard when QBs are considered this level good that teams want to trade away the picks?  It happened with RG3 because the Rams just drafted Bradford high but otherwise guys like Burrow, Luck, Trevor aren't put for sale.  

Edited November 21, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Koolblue13]

Chicago, NE, Giants are all in front of us and might go QB. A slew of teams behind us probably want to move up for one. Could turn into another 2021 QB frenzy draft.

 

Great for us to pick up more draft picks.

[Thinking Skins]

Thought this was relevant

 

 

 

Dag, I spent all that time searching through my twitter timeline looking for this video I saw this morning and you had already posted it 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[philibusters]

 

I don't know if the Cardinals could trade Murray but its possible.   About 70 million of his deal was signing bonus.   The first two years covered 24 of that 70 million dollar signing bonus.  So that leaves 46 million left.  That is the deadcap the Cardinals would take if they traded Murray.  That is a lot, but they would have a relatively cheap QB in the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye so they could probably swing that.   For the team trading for the Cardinals, the year to year numbers wouldn't be as bad as it is for the Cardinals because the 46 million of prorated singing bonus wouldn't be on their books, the Cardinals would have had to eaten that at the time of the trade.  Looking at Overtehcap , the cap hit for the team acquiring Murray over the next three years would be something like 38 million in 2024, 32 million in 2025 and 42 million in 2026 which could be feasible.  So it comes down to how highly do people around the league think of Murray.

 

https://overthecap.com/player/kyler-murray/7792

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by philibusters

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Chicago, NE, Giants are all in front of us and might go QB. A slew of teams behind us probably want to move up for one. Could turn into another 2021 QB frenzy draft.

 

Great for us to pick up more draft picks.

 

Trading back IMO I think definitetly in play.  The anayltics guy who Harris hired generally likes the idea of accumulating picks.

[Thinking Skins]

I think the owners liking Sam is good news cause it gives us insight into the talks he'd be having with the GM. Owner would be involved in finding a QB - not solely, but involved, and definitely invilved in having talks about the contract he would offer Sam after next year.

 

So these are the types of things that he would need to think about with a GM because of things like the type of hits Sam is taking and things like concussions, head injuries, neck injuries I fear those a lot more than the old fashioned career enders like leg brakers and ACLs. But because he is so physical and is used like a punching bag (maybe refs will protect him more as he develops) but he needs to slide more, not learn to slide more but just acutally choose to slide more.

 

So the question will be will the juice be worth the squeeze. Will we be signing him to a Kyler Murray contract in 2 years and see him injured and see our team still only hovering at 7-8 wins every year (at best). If thats the case, thats a bad scenario. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Trading back IMO I think definitetly in play.  The anayltics guy who Harris hired generally likes the idea of accumulating picks.

Shen liking to trade back and a bunch of teams fighting to move up might actually be our turn around year. Maybe grab a first for next year and load up on day two picks to build a core of the team. Lines, TE etc and have flexability moving forward.

[zCommander]

Howell should be the guy next year.

 

Said it back in 2021 - build the OL and then drop a QB. That hasn't been done yet (except maybe for the QB). The OL still needs to be fixed first. Howell, regardless of how his season ends, up or down, buys you another year to build the OL. Do not trade up but trade down and collect as many OL as possible. Except don't trade if your stud tackle is at the spot though. 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by zCommander

[RandyHolt]

I vote lets not trade back and water down talent, as THE rule. Unless our draft slot happens to fall at the beginning of the next tier of players and someone overpays. Trade backs can work sure yeah I remember that one year. But so can trade ups and staying put. Trading down is kinda doubling down that you have a superior scouting dept when in reality it theoretically should be harder to hit on those picks. If its hard to find diamonds in the rough its ok to take the diamond in your face.Take a WR1 vs 2 WR2s.  We need game changers not complimentary players that can get us to 500.

Edited November 21, 2023 by RandyHolt

[Thinking Skins]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Shen liking to trade back and a bunch of teams fighting to move up might actually be our turn around year. Maybe grab a first for next year and load up on day two picks to build a core of the team. Lines, TE etc and have flexability moving forward.

Man, I'm thinking about Shen and I get a bad vibe from that video. Given it's only one video but the fact that he points out TE scares me. I hope he doesn't draft a TE in the (first round of the) draft. We could get a LT or a WR or an edge. Basically I'd like to go anywhere in the draft that would be expensive to go in FA and it's good player available at our position. 

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Man, I'm thinking about Shen and I get a bad vibe from that video. Given it's only one video but the fact that he points out TE scares me. I hope he doesn't draft a TE in the (first round of the) draft. We could get a LT or a WR or an edge. Basically I'd like to go anywhere in the draft that would be expensive to go in FA and it's good player available at our position. 

I don't know if it necessarily means we'll draft a TE high. His point in the video is that premium TEs are good value because they typically don't cost as much but in today's NFL can be just as impactful as a real good WR. For example Travis Kelce is only making like $10 Mil a year. There are average WRs who make 50% more.

 

His other more controversial point is to take RBs high because you get good value out of it, which I guess makes sense since you get them for their prime 5 years for cheap and then can discard them when they get old and expensive.

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't know if it necessarily means we'll draft a TE high. His point in the video is that premium TEs are good value because they typically don't cost as much but in today's NFL can be just as impactful as a real good WR. For example Travis Kelce is only making like $10 Mil a year. There are average WRs who make 50% more.

 

His other more controversial point is to take RBs high because you get good value out of it, which I guess makes sense since you get them for their prime 5 years for cheap and then can discard them when they get old and expensive.

I know, but part of me thinks he may want to get a TE "in his system" so they can franchise him for that reason. 

[samy316]

Howell has definitely earned the right to start next year, and he should be given every opportunity to by the new coaching staff.  Unless we somehow end up at #1 or #2 in the draft, I don't see us getting a QB in the 1st round.  If we play our cards right, we could have a Top 5 pick for the 2024 draft.  If that's the case, this opens up a whole new set of possibilities to either acquire a legit blue chip prospect, or trade down and acquire significant draft capital.  I've been thinking of our needs, and if we have # 4 or # 5, we should explore the possibility of drafting a legit WR or a TE in Marvin Harrison Jr, or Brock Bowers.  I haven't been that enthralled with our WR group this year, and I feel like we need an absolute #1 WR like MHJR to shoot our offense into the stratosphere.  I love TMac, but I think it's about time we start thinking of getting him a legit big WR that can compliment him.  I like Dotson too, but I just think we need another big time WR to stretch our passing game.  Same with Brock Bowers.  I think having a bonified stud at WR or TE will go a long way towards Howell's progression into a Top 10 QB moving forward.

 

I know that we have to draft OL (probably a couple of OL), but we can also take advantage of our $90 million in cap space and sign top tier OL too.  This could be a draft that shakes out in our favor, once we get a quality GM and FO.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I know, but part of me thinks he may want to get a TE "in his system" so they can franchise him for that reason. 

Well if there was ever a draft to adopt that strategy it'd be this one with Bowers. I'm also super against taking a TE high and have made that position clear many times, but even I can't deny Bowers has some ridiculous upside.

[RandyHolt]

We could have had Trey McBride instead of Mathis. We can play that game all day long though, as can any team. Requisite just sayin Eugene would be happy and not fixated on a TE.

 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

We could have had Trey McBride instead of Mathis. We can play that game all day long though, as can any team. Requisite just sayin Eugene would be happy and not fixated on a TE.

 

I like TEs in the 2nd round. Just not in the 1st. The track record is just abysmal.

[RandyHolt]

44 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I like TEs in the 2nd round. Just not in the 1st. The track record is just abysmal.

They take their share of abuse and seem to have a limited shelf life. I like your 2nd round thinking.