The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[bh32]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Kind of feels like that's really more of a campaign to keep everyone else's job.  A lot of people depend on him staying in charge here.  I can see a world where he steps back into a senior FO role and gives Bieniemy all of the day to day HC duties, and Harris hires some more FO people, with only a few changes to the assistant coaching staff coming.

 

I don't hate that outcome at all, and it's what I'd encourage if I were the owner.  I'd let Bieniemy and Rivera finish their contracts here, give Howell another season with them, and then reassess everyone at the end of 2024.

Oh hell no..Ron and Co should all be gone at end of year..you think they have done a good job of acquiring talent through the draft and free agency? Ron is a terrible talent evaluater 

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

I watched tonight's game and it's not hard to come away thinking Howell has a better future than the 1st overall pick. I know we all have biases, and Carolina fans would have theirs with Young, but I need an unbiased take to sell me on someone lots of NFL teams thought was the 1st overall pick. And then how that pick isn't already a bust. And then how the NFL community at large is evaluating Howell based on his draft position.

 

I'm going to be plain, right now, Bryce Young can't play in the NFL. He's an extra data point for failure. He's also a pre-draft outlier.

 

Can this improve? I don't think so, but I'm not an expert.

 

Of course Bryce Young can get way better.  What he is as an NFL player is far from defined, and Kirk Herbstreit has seen Bryce Young play a lot of good football at Alabama.  He knows what Bryce's strengths are when he's playing to his potential.

 

And Bryce having a bad start to his career isn't an indictment of picking a QB early.  Especially when the #2 pick has been killing it.

42 minutes ago, bh32 said:

Oh hell no..Ron and Co should all be gone at end of year..you think they have done a good job of acquiring talent through the draft and free agency? Ron is a terrible talent evaluater 

 

Do you like Sam Howell?

[Going Commando]

16 hours ago, philibusters said:

Assuming it would take three first rounders to get Drake Maye, I think there is going a preference to give Howell a shot.  If Maye ends up developing into a top 10 QB and Howell doesn't well, it was definitely a mistake, but three first rounders is a lot.

 

It is a lot.  But to lock in your QB position for a new regime with a super blue chipper like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, it's worth it.  Our whole future becomes clearly defined after making that kind of move.  GM, HC, QB all tied together and working toward one goal.

 

And you can mitigate the cost by trading more of our vets.  You can trade Howell.  You can trade  Allen or Payne.  Allen and Payne both absolutely have a trade market and Howell probably would too.  We know teams were calling about Jon after his tirade a couple of weeks ago.  I would absolutely hate to lose him, but to secure our long term future at QB, I would do it.

 

Just don't trade Terry.  A young QB needs Terry.

[Warhead36]

I love Maye but I'm not sure Maye > Howell + 3 1sts. 

 

[Going Commando]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

I love Maye but I'm not sure Maye > Howell + 3 1sts.

 

Me neither.  But that kind of move is all about long term security and ceiling.  You make that kind of trade for Maye, and we know beyond any shadow of doubt what our long term plan at QB is under a new regime.  Everything they do from that point on becomes about building the team around him, and then getting him to his second contract as an elite QB with a contender built around him and a fair contract in place.  The exact way that it's been done with Burrow and Lawrence and Allen and Jackson.

 

As for the ceiling consideration, Williams and Maye are Burrow/Lawrence caliber prospects.  They have the upside to be the best QBs in the league one day.  You plop Trevor Lawrence down in our huddle, and we would run our division and compete for top two seeds in the NFC for the next ten years.  A perennial MVP caliber QB in the NFC, where all of his peers are in the AFC, would be the surest path to a SB we can create.

 

I think one of Maye or Williams is going to go up for sale during the draft, we just have to be willing to pay through the nose to get them.

[bird_1972]

40 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I love Maye but I'm not sure Maye > Howell + 3 1sts. 

 

 

Didn't we already try this once before with RG3? 

 

Hard pass.

[zCommander]

33 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Me neither.  But that kind of move is all about long term security and ceiling.  You make that kind of trade for Maye, and we know beyond any shadow of doubt what our long term plan at QB is under a new regime.  Everything they do from that point on becomes about building the team around him, and then getting him to his second contract as an elite QB with a contender built around him and a fair contract in place.  The exact way that it's been done with Burrow and Lawrence and Allen and Jackson.

 

As for the ceiling consideration, Williams and Maye are Burrow/Lawrence caliber prospects.  They have the upside to be the best QBs in the league one day.  You plop Trevor Lawrence down in our huddle, and we would run our division and compete for top two seeds in the NFC for the next ten years.  A perennial MVP caliber QB in the NFC, where all of his peers are in the AFC, would be the surest path to a SB we can create.

 

I think one of Maye or Williams is going to go up for sale during the draft, we just have to be willing to pay through the nose to get them.

 

Please help me find Joe and Trevor on this list. 

 

 

Howell is > Maye or Williams. Why? Because he is already in the NFL and playing really well. Some of you keep on forgetting many had Howell as a 1st rounder maybe a 2nd rounder. If we have had selected him instead of Dotson would you be so eager to dump him and go after Maye or Williams?

 

It is so crazy to see Howell on that list that high with the way our OL has been. Dumping all these drafts picks on Maye or Williams will be fools gold instead of building the OL first. 

[bird_1972]

3 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Please help me find Joe and Trevor on this list. 

 

 

Howell is > Maye or Williams. Why? Because he is already in the NFL and playing really well. Some of you keep on forgetting many had Howell as a 1st rounder maybe a 2nd rounder. If we have had selected him instead of Dotson would you be so eager to dump him and go after Maye or Williams?

 

It is so crazy to see Howell on that list that high with the way our OL has been. Dumping all these drafts picks on Maye or Williams will be fools gold instead of building the OL first. 

 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, as they say. 

 

For once, let's realize what we have and not chase after the bright, shiny object. We may find ourselves depleted of draft picks and stuck with the next Zach Wilson.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Of course Bryce Young can get way better.  What he is as an NFL player is far from defined, and Kirk Herbstreit has seen Bryce Young play a lot of good football at Alabama.  He knows what Bryce's strengths are when he's playing to his potential.

 

And Bryce having a bad start to his career isn't an indictment of picking a QB early.  Especially when the #2 pick has been killing it.

 

Do you like Sam Howell?

 

What are Bryce's strengths? There are no apparent attributes or tendencies that I can see for building around and developing.

 

I wonder if I would think the same if we still had Taylor Heinicke. Watching Howell has made QB's with lesser arms and accuracy really negatively stand out.

[Warhead36]

51 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Didn't we already try this once before with RG3? 

 

Hard pass.

I mean RG3 was worth it until he got hurt. The difference is, there was no Howell-level prospect at that time so we had to make that trade(although in hindsight we had no idea we would have ended up with Cousins later in that same draft).

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

48 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Please help me find Joe and Trevor on this list. 

 

 

Howell is > Maye or Williams. Why? Because he is already in the NFL and playing really well. Some of you keep on forgetting many had Howell as a 1st rounder maybe a 2nd rounder. If we have had selected him instead of Dotson would you be so eager to dump him and go after Maye or Williams?

 

It is so crazy to see Howell on that list that high with the way our OL has been. Dumping all these drafts picks on Maye or Williams will be fools gold instead of building the OL first. 

This is such a critical point to mention. Howell is facing NFL defenses and doing a very good job. Many " can't miss " college prospects end up as flops in the NFL. Even ones who analysts think that they are positive about. So I would find it absolutely preposterous to give up a bunch of draft capital for a player who may crap the bed at the next level. If you already have a solid QB ( with the potential to be great), you should build around that guy. Add talented offensive linemen and better skill players around him. 

[Going Commando]

59 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

What are Bryce's strengths? There are no apparent attributes or tendencies that I can see for building around and developing.

 

Bryce's arm is average, which is all it really takes to be an elite NFL QB.  His special traits are his accuracy/touch and his field vision and instincts.  His time at Alabama was just play after play of hitting third and fourth reads and late options on the opposite side of the field from his initial reads.  His touch on throws all over the field is also feathery.  One of the reasons Jahmyr Gibbs looked so good on catch and runs last year was because of how catchable a Bryce Young pass is.  Bryce's physical make up for an NFL QB is below average, maybe even marginal.  But his feel for the position is truly special.  All of that stuff governed by feel/instinct, from placing and timing throws, making all of his reads, playing with anticipation, etc.  Is even more important in the NFL than it is in college.  He's gotten off to a slow start in the NFL, and he doesn't have dominant physical traits to fall back on like say, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis.  He's just going to have to take his lumps and adjust to the game and master the speed of it.  But he absolutely can do that, and Carolina is all in on him.  They'll give him the time to do it.

 

They drastically need to improve the team around him though.  The defense has all of their young talent on it.  He doesn't have any other good NFL players on his offense, and they're going to have to get way better weapons for Young to succeed.  They'll have to get better up front too in order for Young to find and hit those late options.

[Warhead36]

The issue for Young is: is his team gonna be able to put the pieces around him? They're already without their 1st in 2024 which could end up being the 1st overall pick. That's a huge asset that they won't have available to them. and Carolina isn't exactly a FA hotspot, they'll have to overpay for decent talent.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

16 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Bryce's arm is average, which is all it really takes to be an elite NFL QB.  His special traits are his accuracy/touch and his field vision and instincts.  His time at Alabama was just play after play of hitting third and fourth reads and late options on the opposite side of the field from his initial reads.  His touch on throws all over the field is also feathery.  One of the reasons Jahmyr Gibbs looked so good on catch and runs last year was because of how catchable a Bryce Young pass is.  Bryce's physical make up for an NFL QB is below average, maybe even marginal.  But his feel for the position is truly special.  All of that stuff governed by feel/instinct, from placing and timing throws, making all of his reads, playing with anticipation, etc.  Is even more important in the NFL than it is in college.  He's gotten off to a slow start in the NFL, and he doesn't have dominant physical traits to fall back on like say, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis.  He's just going to have to take his lumps and adjust to the game and master the speed of it.  But he absolutely can do that, and Carolina is all in on him.  They'll give him the time to do it.

 

They drastically need to improve the team around him though.  The defense has all of their young talent on it.  He doesn't have any other good NFL players on his offense, and they're going to have to get way better weapons for Young to succeed.  They'll have to get better up front too in order for Young to find and hit those late options.

 

Maybe last night was just a bad night. All those positive attributes you mentioned he struggled with. I'm a little shocked how inadequate the #1 pick looked.

[samy316]

Bryce Young is just too small for the NFL QB position in today's game.  He can't see over defenders, and he doesn't have the physical capabilities to elude the rush from the pocket like the prototypical QB's playing the position today.  Young doesn't have a talented squad (or good coaching if we're being honest here) to make up for his deficiencies in size and physicality.  To avoid the bust label, he's going to have to get to a team with a loaded roster of fast WR's and a dominant OL (like he had at Alabama).  He's the kind of QB that can become average to above average, if his team's talent is significantly better than the opposing team.  If Young is the QB of an average squad or worse, he's not going to be long for this league, because he's not good enough to overcome size and strength.  If Carolina's FO doesn't get smart and load up on weapons and OL in the next 2 seasons. Young will definitely become a bust, because he can't overcome being on an average or bad team.

 

Since Carolina gave up a LOT just to trade up to get Young, he's going to be pushed hard by the NFL community and the media to perform up to a standard that I'm not sure he can get to.  Not having a 1st/2nd next draft and a 2nd in 2025, is going to force them to go on a spending spree to improve the team.

Edited November 10, 2023 by samy316

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I love Maye but I'm not sure Maye > Howell + 3 1sts. 

 

My guess is Howell would be part of the trade if we wanted to move up for Maye.  

 

IF, and this is a big if, but IF Howell continues the trajectory he's on, he'd easily fetch a 1st round pick in an offseason trade. Maybe a 1st+.  The rumor was, after 2016, Kyle was willing to trade a first for Cousins which turned into the 2nd overall pick or something like that.  

 

Howell right now has to be seen as a top 10-15 QB in the league after only 10 starts, with a high ceiling because of his arm talent and ability to extend plays and use his legs.

 

He's also on a 5th round rookie contract for one more year.

 

Personally, I wouldn't move up for Maye or Williams because neither has played a snap in the NFL, and the first several QBs taken in the draft who come in with a lot of hype, well, the hit rate isn't great:

 

2023: (This is all too early to tell, but based on what we've seen)
#1 - Bryce Young, BAD

#2 - CJ Stroud, GREAT

#4 - Anthony Richardson, GOOD then hurt

 

2022:

None in the top 10

 

2021:

#1 - Lawrence, GREAT

#2 - Zach Wilson, BAD (so bad that Dax Milne is dating his ex)

#3 - Trey Lance, BAD (worse than Zach, now backing up Dak)

#11 - Justin Fields, OK 

 

2020:

#1 - Joe Burrow, FRANCHISE

#5 - Tua, GOOD/GREAT (I think he's good but looks great with the supporting cast)

#6 - Justin Herbert, GOOD (My hot take is Herbert is highly overrated and still living off his rookie year success.  He makes bad decisions at bad times pretty consistently.)

 

2019:

#1 - Kyler Murray,BAD

#6 - Daniel Jones, BAD

 

2018:

#1 - Baker Mayfield, BAD

#3 - Sam Darnlod, VERY BAD

#7 - Josh Allen, FRANCHISE

#10 - Josh Rosen, VERY BAD

 

2017:

#2 - Mitch Trubisky, VERY BAD

#10 - Mahomes, FRANCHISE

#12 - Watson, WHO THE HELL KNOWS? 

 

2016:

#1 - Jared Goff , GOOD (He might be tied with Kirk as "the best of the good.")

#2 - Wentz, BAD

 

2015:

#1 - Jameis Winston, BAD

#2 - Marcus Mariota, VERY BAD

 

I'll stop there. The trend is apparent.  Even top picks are very hit or miss.  

 

Guys are hyped all the time.  "Can't miss prospect" and "Prototypical size" and all the other stuff.  And the bust rate is extremely high, even if picked in the top 5.

 

So, with all that said, absent something catastrophic happening, the safer bet is to keep Howell and not trade up to get Williams/Maye.  Statistically, one of the two of them is going to bust hard.  Howell seems to be much more of a sure thing at this point.

[Skinsinparadise]

[Warhead36]

If Howell is good enough to get a 1st then I'm not trading him and I don't think any decent GM would either.

[Conn]

At the rate we throw, imagine if our WRs weren’t dropping so many of these balls downfield. Howell feels almost due for a 500+ yard 3-4 TD performance to really rev up the national hype machine 

[method man]

This idea of trading Howell away and then a bunch of firsts for Maye is a truly idiotic discussion because there isn’t a chance it happens unless Howell were to fall apart over the rest of the season. As Standig noted, Howell, even at his current level of play, is the main pitch (along with stable ownership, $90M in cap and picks) to get the strongest GM and HC in here

[MisterPinstripe]

Let's also remember that in every game except that mess of a Bill's game, Sam has 14 TDs and 5 INTs. I'd take that every day of the week. That game really skews his stats.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, Conn said:

At the rate we throw, imagine if our WRs weren’t dropping so many of these balls downfield. Howell feels almost due for a 500+ yard 3-4 TD performance to really rev up the national hype machine 

Add a WR, TE and RB….plus 2 OL, I would do all of that via the draft. Howell is going to ****ing ball for us. 

[method man]

12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Add a WR, TE and RB….plus 2 OL, I would do all of that via the draft. Howell is going to ****ing ball for us. 

Even if he regresses a bit, he has still earned the lead shot at the job in 2024

[Est.1974]

Just now, method man said:

Even if he regresses a bit, he has still earned the lead shot at the job in 2024

Not too long ago I was open minded to our approach at QB.

 

Now - Howell is my #1 in 2024. We would be outright idiotic to do anything else.