The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The irony about Wentz is the Colts went through a similar rodeo last season.

 

Some here thought Frank Reich has Wentz figured out all wrong and the way to play him was like you got Dan Marino -- 40 plus throws a game and let it all hang. 

 

But the Colts started winning when they instead started majoring in the run game and used Wentz more as a game manager.  Maybe Reich who was considered at the time the dude who knew Wentz the most, not that dense about him.

 

To me its a hard call between Wentz and Taylor if Taylor loses a game he should win like this game on Sunday.  If they win keep him in there.

 

With Wentz

 

A. They can take advantage of the run game by stretching the field.

 

B.  I think he can tear apart or come close to doing it versus weak secondaries ala what he did in against Jacksoville, the Titans and the 2nd half against the Lions in ways that Taylot can't.  Taylor has been medicore or less against really all secondaries good or bad defenses.

 

C.  He'd provide a slight upgrade as to actualy posing as a running threat in a game.  Sounds crazy but the stats show it.

 

With Heinicke

 

A.  He provides a spart to the team as for his personality.  As I mentioned before, Wentz is a flat personality and the offense seems to match his flatness.

 

B.  He's clutch.  Wentz isn't.  So in big moments and big games, i am sort of expecting Wentz to fold whereas I expect that big play from Taylor.

 

C.  Better pocket presence than Wentz IMO and more wiggle in the pocket to deal with the pass rush.

 

 

Yup. This is why it's a tough conversation to have and damned if you do and damned if you don't. We really need a better QB situation to remedy that conversation. But for now people on both sides can make compelling points to bring to the table in defense of either guy as the starter.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Yup. This is why it's a tough conversation to have and damned if you do and damned if you don't. We really need a better QB situation to remedy that conversation. But for now people on both sides can make compelling points to bring to the table in defense of either guy as the starter.

 

 

 

Agree.  Both are "meh" options.    Heinicke is the no brainer option IMO as long as they keep winning.    I would pause though if he puts up a lemon game against the Giants and they lose.  The Giants secondary is awful.  Their defense isn't good.  I like their D line though.   But if he struggles against them, imagine the 49ers the week after?

 

lol, some matchups I prefer Wentz, others Heinicke.  For example Henicke really struggled against the Vikings which is the worst ranked defense in the league.  Every other QB except Heinicke has lit the Vikings up in the 2nd half of the season just about.  Heinicke barely got over 150 yards, had a 53% completion rate and threw a crushing pick. I think Wentz would have lit them up.  But conversely, against the Colts I think we'd have lost with Wentz -- the gravity of the game I think would have brought out his worst and Wentz isn't exactly the Comeback King. 

 

I agree that Howell brings the best out of both players skill set wise.   Howell has a rocket of an arm and has mobility and isn't afraid to use his legs.  Neither Wentz or Heinicke are accurate QBs.  Howell's accuracy is better.  The mystery obviously is does he know this offense enough and is ready to read an NFL defense.  I don't blame Rivera for not experimenting with this during a playoff run.  But I do suspect Howell can run this basic scheme they are doing currently with Heinicke.  A ton of handoffs, screens, shallow crossers (mesh plays). 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

49 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Yup. There's a dual argument here, too.

 

One side: If Turner was a good OC than they would have recognized the correct path in the beginning was a heavy focus on the run game and stuck with that. Rebuttal: "Brian Robinson was hurt, though... That effected the plan". 

 

Other side: Good coaches adjust and Turner did. Rebuttal: But situational playcalling is still lacking.

 

People are going to be upset no matter what. 

I’m still not sold on Turner overall, he again remains TBD in my mind…because of all you just said.

 

I was furious with him when he kept wanting to go for the long ball early on when defenses were getting immediate pressure.  Sure, Carson compounded matters by being shook - but it’s up to the OC to counter that.  In fairness, it’s not like they have years together.

 

I have to tip my cap though for what he’s constructed for TH.  It’s overlooked by a lot of folks, but it takes grit and patience to plod like we need to plod.  Beyond that he’s often times dialing up plays where I could make the read and throw, almost Shanny-like.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree.  Both are "meh" options.    Heinicke is the no brainer option IMO as long as they keep winning.    I would pause though if he puts up a lemon game against the Giants and they lose.  The Giants secondary is awful.  Their defense isn't good.  I like their D line though.   But if he struggles against them, imagine the 49ers the week after?

I still don’t know if 1 lemon where we lose is enough to go to Wentz.  Perhaps 1.5, and we’d see Wentz after halftime against the Niners.

 

With Heinicke, the majority of his games are lemons of his own making, and then he comes alive to dig his way out.  The one thing he really hasn’t done though is turn it over a ton - which probably has more to do with limited chances to do so (and bad corners dropping gimmes and refs taking dudes out😭). The 49ers are a team though that capitalizes on the bad throws, or strip sacks hanging in the pocket.  
 

Obviously, I don’t want to spend Xmas Eve salty, so hopefully he proves me wrong.  Or the defense gives Purdy hell and we somehow pull off a W in an ugly slopfest.

Edited December 16, 2022 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Skinsinparadise]

[HogsVa7]

26 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I still don’t know if 1 lemon where we lose is enough to go to Wentz.  Perhaps 1.5, and we’d see Wentz after halftime against the Niners.

 

With Heinicke, the majority of his games are lemons of his own making, and then he comes alive to dig his way out.  The one thing he really hasn’t done though is turn it over a ton - which probably has more to do with limited chances to do so (and bad corners dropping gimmes and refs taking dudes out😭). The 49ers are a team though that capitalizes on the bad throws, or strip sacks hanging in the pocket.  
 

Obviously, I don’t want to spend Xmas Eve salty, so hopefully he proves me wrong.  Or the defense gives Purdy hell and we somehow pull off a W in an ugly slopfest.

I watched the 49ers game last night. As a Heinicke supporter, I believe he's going to throw like three picks against that defense. The 49ers defense is just a different animal. I hope he proves me wrong but Idk.

[skinny21]

@Skinsinparadise  @KDawg Great points all around.  I’d add some other pros/cons and questions - 

 

Wentz-

 

Cons:

 

Can Wentz make the proper read quickly enough - and this stems from a few things - a lack of familiarity in the offense (unknown how much of an issues this currently is), criticisms about Wentz’s propensity to not take the easy passes, and Kurt Warner’s breakdowns showing Wentz not recognizing number advantages and issues reading the key defender.

 

Related to that point, and adding in Wentz’s lack of mobility in the pocket, do we risk more negative plays - especially sacks/fumbles with him in?

 

And of course, do those points above lead to fewer sustained drives/less TOP?

 

Pros:

 

Teams are more likely to keep both safeties deep (or play cover 3/4) with Wentz in the game, which could/should help the run game.

 

Tougher for teams to play coverage like the Giants did - sitting on routes and breaking on the ball - because Wentz can get the ball to the receiver quicker.

 

Heinicke-

 

Cons:

 

Teams can prioritize defending the run game with TH behind center.

 

Misses some “gimme” plays, like the sailed ball to a wide open Thomas near the goal line early in the Giants game.

 

Struggles in the red zone, seemingly in part because of the tighter windows.

 

Pros:

 

Heinicke seems to be getting the ball out quickly and seems to be (for the most part?) finding the proper reads while doing so.

 

Teams might be more hesitant to play man coverage with Heinicke’s ability to scramble.

 

Do teams rush differently - ie, are they being coached to maintain rush discipline to not let TH get out of the pocket?

 

 

I’m with you guys too that this current system seems like an ideal way to get Howell into the game (not this year, though I will probably have that lingering “what if?” thought).  I think of it a bit like how Brady was treated at the beginning of his career - let the team do most of the work while your young qb develops.  Could it still be a struggle for him?  Sure.  But as you guys point out, the pros he offers vs Wentz and Heinicke, along with not having the same weaknesses as them, is a big leg up.  

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

I watched the 49ers game last night. As a Heinicke supporter, I believe he's going to throw like three picks against that defense. The 49ers defense is just a different animal. I hope he proves me wrong but Idk.

Much of the “it’s only a matter of time” comments from many of us pertaining to Heinicke turning it over stems from both the eye test and it’s compounded by the metrics that he throws the riskiest ball in the league.

 

That said, we’ve seen it now in two different seasons where for whatever reason, defenders drop a lot of his ducks.  Hence all the rabbit foot talk.  I’ve never seen anything like it.  I bet guys like Case Keenum watch defenders drop Heinicke’s bad throws and punch holes in the wall in frustration.

 

So my hope is that rabbits foot remains on him at all times and those errant throws continue to get dropped.  But yes, all things logical indicate this will be an awful matchup for him.

[Koolblue13]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Heinicke is struggling against some of the worst defenses in the NFL, the 49ers, best defense in the NFL, is likely going to be a brutal match up 

 

I like our D vs their offense though. Hopefully chase gets a little PT this week and comes on strong next, because the defenses are going to be as capable, if not more of scoring than the offenses.

[Koolblue13]

22 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

I watched the 49ers game last night. As a Heinicke supporter, I believe he's going to throw like three picks against that defense. The 49ers defense is just a different animal. I hope he proves me wrong but Idk.

If Heinicke doesn't finish that game, I think Howell will give us a better chance of winning.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

If Heinicke doesn't finish that game, I think Howell will give us a better chance of winning.

Isn’t Wentz now the backup?

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Isn’t Wentz now the backup?

Yeah, but I think with Howells wheels and rocket, he'd be better to start.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Yeah, but I think with Howells wheels and rocket, he'd be better to start.

No argument from me.  I kind of wish Wentz was done for the year, so if anything happened to Heinicke or he poops the bed there would be no choice but to see Howell.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

No argument from me.  I kind of wish Wentz was done for the year, so if anything happened to Heinicke or he poops the bed there would be no choice but to see Howell.

I want to see Wentz, just to see if we can run our offense successfully with Wentz, now that it's come together and Turner has settled in, so we can gauge if he has anything in the tank going forward, because if he does and he's good in the lockerroom, resigning Wentz to a very affordable deal could be a good move. I'm kind of doubting that happens though. I'm thinking as excited as Turner was to have a big armed QB, he's settled into knowing that he has to start run first for now, no matter who is back there.

[LD0506]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I agree that Howell brings the best out of both players skill set wise.   Howell has a rocket of an arm and has mobility and isn't afraid to use his legs.  Neither Wentz or Heinicke are accurate QBs.  Howell's accuracy is better.  The mystery obviously is does he know this offense enough and is ready to read an NFL defense.  I don't blame Rivera for not experimenting with this during a playoff run.  But I do suspect Howell can run this basic scheme they are doing currently with Heinicke.  A ton of handoffs, screens, shallow crossers (mesh plays). 

 

I'd agree with this but it seems that the real sticking point is our OC. Can and will he craft a plan to play to Howell's strengths, or will he expect/demand that the square peg pound itself into the round hole of his existing scheme? IMO Turner is this great architect that draws up beautiful plans but refuses to listen to the engineer that argues what's possible.

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

I'd agree with this but it seems that the real sticking point is our OC. Can and will he craft a plan to play to Howell's strengths, or will he expect/demand that the square peg pound itself into the round hole of his existing scheme? IMO Turner is this great architect that draws up beautiful plans but refuses to listen to the engineer that argues what's possible.

I think he's a bit slow to make changes to his plans and he obviously was excited to have a legit QB to start this year, but the way we have won with Heinickie at QB is proof that he's not hammering square pegs into round holes. I'm assuming that he's learned that he has to follow his Dads lead and lean on the run to open the rest of it up.

[mistertim]

8 hours ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

Where do you get we have a top 5 rushing offense?

 

8 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

Our rushing is ranked 14th in total yards. #1 are the Bears and then the Eagles and then Ravens, Falcons and 5th are the Browns.

 

Are you like only counting the last 5 or 6 games only?

 

Yes I'm counting more recent games after we got some OL back from injury, a healthy BRob, and a focus by Turner on the running game. We currently have a top 5 rushing attack in yards per game. Same with defense. It was not very good early in the season, then they made changes and are now a top 3 defense in terms of yards allowed.

 

So my point stands: we have a very effective running game, a very good defense, and a crappy passing offense. So it makes no sense to say TH should get the lions share of the credit. He's not asked to do all that much.

[CommDownMan]

23 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

All that aside, I still don’t expect a big payday for Taylor no matter how the team ends up.  Not from us, and nowhere else really.  I’ll eat the crow if that’s how it shakes out, but I suspect the market won’t be much, even if we head to the playoffs and steal a game.  The only possible way I could see that is if all the sudden he looks way better as a passer and starts scampering all over the field by foot.  Obviously, that’s incredibly unlikely to happen.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/taylor-heinicke-17249/cash-earnings/

Over 7 seasons Heinicke has about 7.6 mill earnings (1.1mill per).  2-3 years/5-7mill per would probably feel like a big payday (especially to non-football players).  I think it's just a relative "big payday" IMO.  

 

I don't believe the $19.7 mill per they show on Sportrac, but I do think $5-7mill/year is something he can reasonably negotiate for a deal.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, LD0506 said:

 

I'd agree with this but it seems that the real sticking point is our OC. Can and will he craft a plan to play to Howell's strengths, or will he expect/demand that the square peg pound itself into the round hole of his existing scheme? IMO Turner is this great architect that draws up beautiful plans but refuses to listen to the engineer that argues what's possible.

 

The irony is Turner did change the offense to what he thought Wentz could do. I don't think Scott Turner's idea of going with a heavy vertical passing gamer was foolish.  Plenty on this thread were saying Reich was wrong to put the breaks on Wentz last year and they should showcase Wentz's big arm.  Things went awry in that Wentz's mobility seemed a peg worse than expected and the O line's pass protection took a nose dive.  But heck even with all of that, we saw for 2.5 games some semblence of an explosive offense.

 

So I don't think Turner is some lost puppy who would struggle with game planning for Howell.  But even if he did, my point is the exact scheme they are running with Taylor should work more than fine with Howell.  For example they do run some RPOs and RO in this offense in the mix of things, Taylor chooses to hand off the ball in those cases -- Howell would likely keep the ball enough to keep defenses more honest.

 

Also, Howell is plenty adept dealing with pocket pressure -- his O line in his last season was horrendous. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

I’ll add that we really don’t want Wentz seeing playing time and getting a significant injury. From a contractual perspective that would guarantee his salary for next season. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

5 minutes ago, CommDownMan said:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/taylor-heinicke-17249/cash-earnings/

Over 7 seasons Heinicke has about 7.6 mill earnings (1.1mill per).  2-3 years/5-7mill per would probably feel like a big payday (especially to non-football players).  I think it's just a relative "big payday" IMO.  

 

I don't believe the $19.7 mill per they show on Sportrac, but I do think $5-7mill/year is something he can reasonably negotiate for a deal.

 

 

With who though?

 

I think the market will solve the Heinicke debate.  If he fetches a multi year deal with decent guaranteed money at $5-$7M per, great for him but I’d prefer it not be us. 

[CommDownMan]

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

With who though?

 

I think the market will solve the Heinicke debate.  If he fetches a multi year deal with decent guaranteed money at $5-$7M per, great for him but I’d prefer it not be us. 

 

Well, I can't speak to the who.  It's backup money and I wouldn't be surprised to see a team take a shot.

 

When guys can do this, I feel like Heinicke can get another contract.  

https://www.the-sun.com/sport/5654970/nfl-chase-daniel-contract-super-bowl/#:~:text=His career earnings are set,base salary of %241.8m.&text=According to Spotrac%2C Daniel has,in basic salary since 2009.

 

Take out rookies here and how many guys jump as good backup options (average per year the middle column)?  I think someone will aim in this area for his services.  From this list it is likely a 1 year deal, maybe 2.  So after this I'd definitely say the argument against 3 years would be a strong one and I'd remove that from the original post.  A slightly higher 1 year (Bridgewater, 6.5mill) or 2 year (T.Taylor 11mill or 5.5 per) seem like a fair comp.

 

[Koolblue13]

This is the only team that wanted to sign him for multiple years, now, after his second starting stretch he's back on the hot seat with the HC refusing to name him a long term starter and bringing the starter back to tha active roster and you guys are discussing the contract that Heini could "demand."

 

I love this place.

[SoCalSkins]

11 hours ago, BraveWarrior said:

I don't think we've shown that we can be consistently good enough to think we're ready to "dominate" superior opponents. Everything came together for us when we beat Philly, and they were flat that night. We had luck on our side too, getting calls and breaks that normally go against us going for us. But remember, the Eagles smacked us in the mouth earlier in the season. And, the Cowboys handled us pretty easily as well. Can we win against the Giants without giving our absolute best effort? Maybe. Beating the 49ers with anything less than a near perfect game from everyone in all three phases? Improbable. 

 

Heinicke is undefeated against the Eagles and has yet to play the Cowboys. The 49ers are starting a 3rd string rookie. The dude Zappe in New England looked great too in his first two starts. He comes down to earth against us. DFoe and Curl will get multiple picks in my opinion. Best record in a 9 game span since 1991 and everyone is doom and gloom. Our D can shut down everyone. Break out the champagne and Super Bowl plans. Phoenix is very nice in February. 

[mistertim]

29 minutes ago, CommDownMan said:

 

Well, I can't speak to the who.  It's backup money and I wouldn't be surprised to see a team take a shot.

 

When guys can do this, I feel like Heinicke can get another contract.  

https://www.the-sun.com/sport/5654970/nfl-chase-daniel-contract-super-bowl/#:~:text=His career earnings are set,base salary of %241.8m.&text=According to Spotrac%2C Daniel has,in basic salary since 2009.

 

Take out rookies here and how many guys jump as good backup options (average per year the middle column)?  I think someone will aim in this area for his services.  From this list it is likely a 1 year deal, maybe 2.  So after this I'd definitely say the argument against 3 years would be a strong one and I'd remove that from the original post.  A slightly higher 1 year (Bridgewater, 6.5mill) or 2 year (T.Taylor 11mill or 5.5 per) seem like a fair comp.

 

 

I think one big difference here is that most of these guys have the talent and "potential" to be full time NFL starters. IMO Heinicke doesn't. He's a good dude that people like, he has the clutch gene and can make big plays at important times, but I think he's just too limited as a passer for anyone to really look at him and think he could be their guy.

 

So they'd be coming into it with the view of him being nothing but a backup, so that will probably put a cap on how much they're willing to spend. I'd be surprised if anyone offered him more than a couple million per year at most.