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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


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Just now, Number 44 said:

Or the number of pressures was very low.  A pressure is defined as a play in which a defender gets within a yard an a half of the QB before the pass.  I hope that we all can agree that the defense is attempting to pressure the QB on all pass plays.  If we give the QB no credit for avoiding pressure to the point that he allowed only 89 pressures (within 1.5 yards) in the season, we are kidding ourselves.  Avoiding pressures is a good thing.  Not sure how there can be disagreement on that.  When we are dealing with small sample size, percentages can easily appear distorted.  I think it's safe to say that pretty much every game there's at least one play where the OL has a blown assignment and a sack happens where the QB had no chance.  To pretend that all 22 of Daniels' sacks were his fault seems rather silly to me.  This is true of pretty much all college QBs.  I'm sorry, I just don't see sacks as being a problem for Daniels, and certainly nothing I've seen here would cause me to change my mind on that.  Peace.

 

  

 

Again, stop with the dumb straw man arguments. Nobody here has said that "all 22 of Daniels's sacks were his fault". Of course that would be silly. Which is why nobody said it.

 

And if you have an issue with how the PTS ratio is derived, perhaps you should email the people at PFF (who watch film of all of the snaps and grade them) and ask them to explain their methodology. Because, as of now, you're basically just using a fantasy argument where you think we should mostly ignore the bad PTS percentage because of your belief that Daniels is just that good at avoiding pressure.

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45 minutes ago, ILikeBilly2 said:

I'm confused by what you are saying.  If he had:

1) the best online of the top 3 qbs

2) the best WRs of the top 3 qbs

3) makes excellent decisions to move and avoid the pressure

4) was sacked 22 times

 

If all true, his sack number is terrible.  Give him Maye's oline and receivers and his sack numbers would balloon.  Maye, with worse support only had 29 sacks.  Give him the limited pressure JD faced and his sacks are likely in the teens.

Maye also threw 100 more passes than Daniels.

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5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

I saw someone posted the rankings, but I don't think I saw anyone post the vid w/ associated explanations.

 

Unfortunately there are no timestamps in the vid but someone in the comments posted this so you can jump around to the prospects your interested in.

 

8:35 Caleb Williams

14:48 Jayden Daniels

16:36 J.J. McCarthy

18:38 Drake Maye

20:55 Michael Penix Jr.

24:02 Bo Nix

27:05 Jordan Travis

27:46 Joe Milton

 

 

 

I actually really like the way J.T. breaks down plays and his analysis methods in general. He's obviously very knowledgeable about the position and defenses, looks, etc. But still, his predictions and rankings kind of suck.

 

 

Fields over Lawrence. Our very own elite Jake Fromm 5 spots ahead of Justin Herbert.  :ols:  

 

Again, this isn't to slam on J.T. himself necessarily. Just to point out that pretty much nobody is amazing at predicting future QB success in the NFL, regardless of their background.

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24 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Fellas, believe what you want.  We aren't going to help Peters with his decision.  The STP ratio is 24% because the number of pressures is low, not because the number of sacks is high.  That seems obvious to me, but apparently not to everyone.  So be it.  If you think Daniels is bad, I'm not going to argue with you any more about it.

 

I'm a big fan of Daniels, loved watching him play, and won't pitch a fit if Washington drafts him. It probably doesn't help that I grew up in Baton Rouge and have been an LSU fan for more than a few decades. So it makes me a little sad to say, I want Maye. Too many things about Daniels scare me, and yes like many here I have RG3PTSD. 

 

At this point, I think just about everyone posting in here has pored over analytics, over and over, and beaten them to death with Jayden Daniels' mom's stick. Don't ask. Anyhoo, we've all learned way too much about "stable" and "sticky" metrics - and one of the most stable AND sticky metrics is the very-misunderstood pressure-to-sack ratio. 

 

I recently posted the article linked below, which seems to me to be the best of many I've run across, both at explaining the metric, looking at historical application, and examing this year's QB crop in some detail.

 

Please note: P2S doesn't care how many times a QB is either pressured or sacked. The sole focus is: When the QB *is* pressured, how often does that pressure result in a sack? So what it's measuring is a QB's ability to escape pressure, no matter the means - scrambling to extend and throw, scrambling and running, simply throwing the ball away etc.

 

In that evaluation, Jayden has consistently remained in the Danger Will Robinson! zone, finishing above the red-flag 20% mark *every* one of his five (well, 4.5, thanks covid) college seasons. 

 

As the article makes clear, this is not necessarily an NFL-career death sentence for Daniels - but it is a HUGE (!) sign of potential, very serious problems.

 

Interesting to note, Sam Howell had the second-highest college career P2S ratio (26.7%) of any college QB since 2015 (worst: Brett Hundley at a so-bad-it's-impressive 31.9%), and he took what, 65 sacks in his first full year as an NFL starter? Daniels now slots in at #4 on that list with 24.5%, between Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder. So Jayden is not in great company with this very sticky (predictive of NFL success) and stable (consistently sticky) metric. 

 

That's just too scary for me when we have the #2 pick in a strong QB class. Maybe GMAP is less risk averse, who knows?

 

Anyway, I hope this article helps clarify P2S and its use in evaluation.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pressure-sack-rate-applied-112029054.html

 

Pressure to sack rate: What is it and how can it be applied?

NBC Sports
Wed, Apr 3, 2024, 7:20 AM EDT
 

What is Pressure to Sack Rate?

A pressure, as defined by NFL Next Gen Stats, is:

 

A pass-rush play where the rusher affects the quarterback before the pass is thrown. A pass rush becomes a pressure when pressure probability exceeds 75 percent. This includes sacks, QB hits, QB hurries and other plays where the pass rusher comes into close proximity with the quarterback; it will also include plays where the pass rusher has a free path to the QB or is winning the matchup with the blocker.

 

One common misconception about P2S% is that quarterbacks who drop back more often will have a worse P2S% than those who don't. However, last year's leader in dropbacks, Patrick Mahomes (732), had an 11.2 percent P2S% — the second-lowest number among qualified quarterbacks (min. 250 dropbacks).

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Patriots reportedly asking for  the equivalent of 5 first round picks or more to move off of their 3rd pick.

 

If the bidding is that crazy and if we can go down a bit and still get our qb, we would be foolish not to at least investigate the opportunity.

 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20240408_195345_YouTube.thumb.jpg.e35012745f612f812885c5dd8aa952ba.jpg

Edited by CommanderInTheRye
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6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Again, stop with the dumb straw man arguments. Nobody here has said that "all 22 of Daniels's sacks were his fault". Of course that would be silly. Which is why nobody said it.

 

And if you have an issue with how the PTS ratio is derived, perhaps you should email the people at PFF (who watch film of all of the snaps and grade them) and ask them to explain their methodology. Because, as of now, you're basically just using a fantasy argument where you think we should mostly ignore the bad PTS percentage because of your belief that Daniels is just that good at avoiding pressure.


He’s not arguing that the number is wrong. He is arguing that it’s being used to say something that’s not represented in the film. Which apparently many scouts agree with and I would argue is able to be gleaned from watching him play. It’s why I said in the beginning it’s a slightly arbitrary stat.

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1 minute ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Patriots reportedly asking for more the equivalent of 5 first round picks to move off of their 3rd pick.

 

If the bidding is that crazy and if we can go down a bit and still get our qb, we would be foolish not to at least investigate the opportunity.

 

You always leave the door open to godfather offers.

Problem is somebody has to offer it. The chances of that deal coming across the table is slim to none. The kind of compensation needed to move us or the Pats off our spot is astronomical. You'd pretty much have to be a moron to pay that price.

 

But if someone wants to get froggy and do something royally stupid? Doors open.

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1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Again, stop with the dumb straw man arguments. Nobody here has said that "all 22 of Daniels's sacks were his fault". Of course that would be silly. Which is why nobody said it.

 

And if you have an issue with how the PTS ratio is derived, perhaps you should email the people at PFF (who watch film of all of the snaps and grade them) and ask them to explain their methodology. Because, as of now, you're basically just using a fantasy argument where you think we should mostly ignore the bad PTS percentage because of your belief that Daniels is just that good at avoiding pressure.

You seem paranoid.  🙂  I didn't say that you said it.  I said that it would be silly to pretend that they were all his fault.  Apparently you agree.

 

Like all stats, STP ratio has a purpose, but it isn't the be all, end all.  PFF doesn't claim that it is.   My point was, and remains, we need to look at stats with an understanding  of the context.  For example, if a QB has a propensity to throw the ball up for grabs when being pressure to avoid sacks, his STP  ratio might look good, but he's likely to have bad outcomes.  The whole reason I even looked into this was the obvious fact that 22 sacks is by no means a high number for a QB to have in a season, and he certainly isn't throwing a lot of interceptions, either.  The 24%  STP ratio that folks kept throwing out there seemed odd, given the sack number.  It then became clear that, in Daniels' case, the guy was doing an outstanding job avoiding pressure.  Again, I can't see any reason to buy an argument that sacks are a problem for Daniels.

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Spielman

 

 

 

 

Tier 2 

Jayden Daniels (LSU)

  • Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210 pounds
  • Accolades/notable statistics: 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, highest passer efficiency rating (208.0) in a season in FBS history

 Pro comp: Baltimore Ravens two-time NFL MVP QB Lamar Jackson

"I've been comparing him to Lamar since the Florida game when he made it look like a Madden football game where someone was playing a college defense, and he was running all over the place," Spielman said.

  • Highest he could get drafted: 2nd overall 
  • Lowest he could get drafted: 6th overall
  • Best team fit: Washington Commanders with OC Kliff Kingsbury

Final Thoughts:

Jayden Daniels put together one of the most productive seasons in college football history in 2023. No, that is not an exaggeration. Thanks to throwing for 3,812 passing yards, 40 touchdowns through the air and just four interceptions while completing 72.2% of his passes, Daniels registered college football's passing efficiency rating record for a single season in 2023 (208.0). He was just as adept at making plays with his feet, racking up 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 135 carries. Daniels led the all quarterbacks in both yards per carry (8.4) and yards per pass attempt (11.7) as he earned the distinction of being the only quarterback of the 21st Century to average 300 or more passing yards per game as well as 75 or more rushing yards per game. 

The knocks on Daniels are his arm strength, a frame that brings up durability questions, being willing to take hits one would see in Looney Toons cartoon and that he will turn 24 as a rookie. 

Drake Maye (North Carolina)

  • Height: 6-4 | Weight: 223 pounds
  • Accolades/notable statistics: 2022 ACC Player of the Year, only FBS player with 7,000+ pass yards & 1,000+ rush yards in past two seasons

 Pro comp: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

"I watched him play live against Miami two years ago, and I was really impressed with his demeanor and the way he throws the ball. I think he's an underrated athlete," Spielman said. "I think he is a good athlete that can make plays. The biggest things that I saw was the do too much mentality this year, trying to overcompensate because of the receivers that he had. Tez Walker didn't play until halfway through the year. He didn't have anyone else to throw to. The offensive line didn't protect him very well. I think he was trying to do too much. The other thing that stuck out to me that he is going to have to learn is the pre and post-snap reads. I think sometimes he gets a little hesitant in the pocket if the defense changes the look on the back end a little bit. He just tried to force too many plays that weren't there. He tried to overcompensate for things instead of trying to play within the scheme and system, but I think they just were undertalented compared to what he had a year ago [in 2022] and the way he played a year ago. I think this guy has huge upside."

  • Highest he could get drafted: 2nd overall 
  • Lowest he could get drafted: 3rd overall
  • Best team fit: New England Patriots with OC Alex Van Pelt

Final Thoughts:

Drake Maye possesses the build (6-foot-4, 229 pounds), athleticism and arm talent  to make just about any throw whether it's scrambling or launching a deep ball from inside the pocket. The stats match the traits since he was the only quarterback to throw for over 7,000 yards (7,929) and run for over 1,000 (1,247) since 2022. Maye also took great care of the football despite forcing throws his senior year with a lackluster supporting cast: he had a 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate, which tied for the seventh-lowest among FBS quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. Maye is worthy of being the second overall pick in this draft class. 

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3 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

You seem paranoid.  🙂  I didn't say that you said it.  I said that it would be silly to pretend that they were all his fault.  Apparently you agree.

 

Like all stats, STP ratio has a purpose, but it isn't the be all, end all.  PFF doesn't claim that it is.   My point was, and remains, we need to look at stats with an understanding  of the context.  For example, if a QB has a propensity to throw the ball up for grabs when being pressure to avoid sacks, his STP  ratio might look good, but he's likely to have bad outcomes.  The whole reason I even looked into this was the obvious fact that 22 sacks is by no means a high number for a QB to have in a season, and he certainly isn't throwing a lot of interceptions, either.  The 24%  STP ratio that folks kept throwing out there seemed odd, given the sack number.  It then became clear that, in Daniels' case, the guy was doing an outstanding job avoiding pressure.  Again, I can't see any reason to buy an argument that sacks are a problem for Daniels.

 

I'm not paranoid, I just don't like disingenuous arguments, and you've been chock full of them so far. Implying that anyone is saying that all of JD's sacks were his fault is a lie and just dumb because nobody said it. Which you know.

 

And I don't see the point in much more of this back and forth because you're literally just ignoring points and repeating the same stuff. The sack number isn't relevant. The ratio of pressures to sacks is. But you keep harping on the sack numbers. 

 

And no, Daniels doesn't have the propensity to throw the ball up for grabs to avoid sacks or pressure. He doesn't have the propensity to throw the ball when pressured. He has the propensity for often running as soon as he gets pressured. So um, yeah, that would make sense with regards to interceptions.

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44 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

in Daniels' case, the guy was doing an outstanding job avoiding pressure.

 

I've watched multiple of the "every Daniels run and pass" videos, mostly trying to convince myself he should be our pick, and I'm not sure I see that in the film.  I've been down on the LSU OL for a few years now, feel like they were riding a reputation rather than actually performing to the level of that rep, but I will say that there was clear improvement from 2022 to 2023 there, and apparently college coaches felt the same way, since the LSU OL was one of the few finalists for the annual OL award that went this year to Washington.

 

I just don't see very many examples of Daniels avoiding what would otherwise be classified as "pressure" (whether under the 1.5-yard marker, the standard cited in the article I linked above: "A pass rush becomes a pressure when pressure probability exceeds 75 percent" - or some other standard). 

 

Rather, it seems that the LSU OL simply did a better job this year of preventing pressure - which shouldn't have been difficult after their horrid performance in 2022, but I digress. 

 

Basically, it looks to me like Jayden is exactly what the P2S metric has said he is for 5 consecutive years - much more likely than most to get sacked when presented with pressure.

 

That's a pretty scary thought, especially given his slight frame (and despite his injury-free college career), when we think about how horrible the Washington OL was last year, the results with similarly-P2S-risky Sam Howell, and the (poor, imho) odds that our somewhat-newly-constructed OL will be significantly better than last year (this is where I would ordinarily rant about our choice of new OL coach being a guy who 'coached' the NYG OL to even more sacks allowed than Washington - how is that possible!? - but I will stop here on that count).

 

I do hope Daniels ends up being a metric-destroyer with a long and successful NFL career, but I also don't want to chew my fingernails to stubs every time the Commanders snap the ball, so I'd rather he go somewhere else to defy the odds.

 

44 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Hear me out, OK? We should take Maye at number two and then trade five first round picks to move back up to number three and take Alt.

 

I was with you until it said Alt and not Daniels. And then Penix and Rattler at 36/40. And then Milton, Hartman, Pratt, Slovis and Leary in the late rounds. We'll be the Costco of quarterbacks, just bringing them in on pallets.

Edited by Dah-Dee
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Just now, Dah-Dee said:

I've watched multiple of the "every Daniels run and pass" videos, mostly trying to convince myself he should be our pick, and I'm not sure I see that in the film.

I don’t believe it’s on the film. It’s not on any of the film I’ve watched. Pick out any game from 2023 and you’ll see on pretty much every dropback he’s either throwing it at the top of his drop to the first read, holding it and not going through progressions but waiting for one of his stud receivers to come open when he has a clean pocket, or taking off and running.

 

Now, go back to the year before that and you’ll see him going through some progressions and not bailing at the first sign of pressure but you’ll also see him taking a ****load of sacks.

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1 minute ago, Llevron said:

That damn Daniels tricking us by making positive plays with his legs and throwing to open WRs!!! 

The problem is that style isn’t going to be sustainable for anybody in the NFL and especially not someone with his build.

 

edit: I think somebody said it well in here yesterday. The thing about Maye is there’s nothing that he can’t do. You’ve seen him do it. Now, he needs to be coached up a lot in order to do it the right way consistently but with Jaden Daniels, there are things that an NFL quarterback needs to do that I don’t know if he’s even capable of. 

Edited by Sacks 'n' Stuff
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2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not paranoid, I just don't like disingenuous arguments, and you've been chock full of them so far. Implying that anyone is saying that all of JD's sacks were his fault is a lie and just dumb because nobody said it. Which you know.

 

And I don't see the point in much more of this back and forth because you're literally just ignoring points and repeating the same stuff. The sack number isn't relevant. The ratio of pressures to sacks is. But you keep harping on the sack numbers. 

 

And no, Daniels doesn't have the propensity to throw the ball up for grabs to avoid sacks or pressure. He doesn't have the propensity to throw the ball when pressured. He has the propensity for often running as soon as he gets pressured. So um, yeah, that would make sense with regards to interceptions.

I implied nothing.  You continue to assert that sacks are a concern with Daniels.  I was showing that he doesn't have a big number to begin with, and that it is very likely that a good number of his sacks were through no fault of his own.  You claim to agree, yet, somehow, you continue your assertion.  The player's frame is a concern, and for all I know, the Commanders brain-trust may well eliminate the player based on that alone.  But sacks certainly don't concern me as far as Daniels is concerned, and I really doubt is Peters and company are concerned about his sacks, either.  The tape gives no reason to worry about sacks, the seemingly high STP ratio seems mitigated once analyzed, and the raw sack and pressure stats are good.  It does seem odd to me to argue that sacks are a problem for a player and say that the sack number is irrelevant.  Sorry, I just can't agree with you.

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55 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Pick out any game from 2023 and you’ll see on pretty much every dropback he’s either throwing it at the top of his drop to the first read, holding it and not going through progressions but waiting for one of his stud receivers to come open when he has a clean pocket, or taking off and running.

 

Yeah, I think that's an exaggeration, 2023 film has numerous examples - that I am too tired and lazy to go pick out so for glob's sake don't ask - where Daniels has his head on a swivel, does that little Denbrock-taught tap-dance in the pocket and hits reads 3-5. 

 

But the film is also almost completely absent of Daniels going through reads, then throwing it away under pressure instead of getting sacked. Also too few (but not zero) examples of scrambling to extend play and finding open receiver, versus scrambling to extend and then running (sometimes with an open receiver missed).

Edited by Dah-Dee
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By and large the type of former QB more likely to be on daily 9-5 type NFL media coverage, or have their own side hustle YouTube channel, are the smart but athletically limited clipboard holders that didn’t earn franchise contracts (or enough money to keep them from needing to engage in a full-time, or even part time, jobs creating content for mooks like us). Guys who might have a mind for grinding tape but didn’t necessarily have the tools/ability to succeed as starters.
 

J.T O’Sullivan, Dan Orlovsky, Kurt Benkert etc. 

 

I don’t think it’s surprising that this type of former player often prefers completely mechanically sound dudes rather than toolsy “rule breakers” at the position. Nobody should be surprised by that imo. It’s an inherent bias in a lot of these guys doing their own tape grinding and their own evaluations that nobody seems to acknowledge. They oftentimes prefer guys who win the way they were taught they had to win. They see impending disaster in the habits of guys like Maye, Herbert, Allen, even Mahomes because of course they do. And sometimes they’re right.

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8 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I implied nothing.  You continue to assert that sacks are a concern with Daniels.  I was showing that he doesn't have a big number to begin with, and that it is very likely that a good number of his sacks were through no fault of his own.  You claim to agree, yet, somehow, you continue your assertion.  The player's frame is a concern, and for all I know, the Commanders brain-trust may well eliminate the player based on that alone.  But sacks certainly don't concern me as far as Daniels is concerned, and I really doubt is Peters and company are concerned about his sacks, either.  The tape gives no reason to worry about sacks, the seemingly high STP ratio seems mitigated once analyzed, and the raw sack and pressure stats are good.  It does seem odd to me to argue that sacks are a problem for a player and say that the sack number is irrelevant.  Sorry, I just can't agree with you.

 

You said that it was silly to imply that all of JD's sacks were his fault. Who said they were? That's implying that anyone was saying they were all his fault, when nobody did.

 

And good god, what is it with you and the raw sack numbers? It is not the sack numbers. I don't care about the sack numbers. It's the amount of times he was sacked relative to those sack numbers and pressures. I honestly don't understand how many more times I have to say that before it sinks in, but it seems it just isn't. You're either intentionally being obtuse in order to push your view on Daniels or you're just genuinely being obtuse. You don't seem like a dumb guy so I'm going to assume the first. In which case the debate is irrelevant at this point.

 

And your claim that the high PTS ratio is "mitigated" is based on nothing but your belief that Daniels has some sort of mystical pressure avoidance that nobody else does.

Edited by mistertim
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1 hour ago, BayouBrave86 said:

You should have to link reports when you're making claims like this. Can you please provide proof of this? 


It’s not my job to repost articles already cited in the thread for those with poor memories or emotional syndromes where they forget facts and evidence presented because it disagrees with their views.

 

In this case, I will do you a kindness and give you a few links you could have searched this thread for or googled:

 

https://arizonasports.com/story/2702818/report-jayden-daniels-mom-aided-asu-in-alleged-recruiting-violations/

https://sports.yahoo.com/yahoo-sports-exclusive-dossier-reveals-extent-of-ncaa-allegations-against-arizona-state-football-055252113.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAf2f9GVmn5lQrBrajRJ6hdNuOANnHovypI6JE26ntIbBJWzVHWnwEhE6n2QIl2-cbik23TnW-vmttwJWz6YiOLiTQ78us16me6cFmbY6FpjHL2mr9qb9A14ftGAET4OezCFHFExkQJhf1CdPsffIvaSPJoI2uYRP-mLYe8UfePk

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/27/commanders-may-need-weigh-mom-factor-draft-day/
 

Perhaps in the future you will simply accept everything I write or opine regarding a player or coach as fact. Almost as if a great football deity shared knowledge with you. You’re welcome.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Conn said:

By and large the type of former QB more likely to be on daily 9-5 type NFL media coverage, or have their own side hustle YouTube channel, are the smart but athletically limited clipboard holders that didn’t earn franchise contracts (or enough money to keep them from needing to engage in a full-time, or even part time, jobs creating content for mooks like us). Guys who might have a mind for grinding tape but didn’t necessarily have the tools/ability to succeed as starters.
 

J.T O’Sullivan, Dan Orlovsky, Kurt Benkert etc. 

 

I don’t think it’s surprising that this type of former player often prefers completely mechanically sound dudes rather than toolsy “rule breakers” at the position. Nobody should be surprised by that imo. It’s an inherent bias in a lot of these guys doing their own tape grinding and their own evaluations that nobody seems to acknowledge. They oftentimes prefer guys who win the way they were taught they had to win. They see impending disaster in the habits of guys like Maye, Herbert, Allen, even Mahomes because of course they do. And sometimes they’re right.

That had never occurred to me. Good point

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