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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


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Just now, TheItalianStallion said:

He's trending upward, but his handoffs are very lethargic. I wish he'd put the ball in the RBs hands a little faster.


This is why I couldn’t live without ES. The nitpicking is at the highest possible level.

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With Tyler Larsen at center, the Commanders’ offense is settling in

 

 

...Howell said. Then he singled out center Tyler Larsen, who has started back-to-back games since the Commanders benched Nick Gates. “Tyler came in and is doing a really good job … with making the right calls and me and him being on the same page.”

 

Larsen is an unlikely hero for the line. At 32, he’s one of the team’s oldest players. He’s coming off two season-ending leg injuries in a row. Washington acquired two centers this offseason — signing Gates to a three-year, $16.5 million deal and using a third-round draft pick on Ricky Stromberg — and cut Larsen from its initial 53-man roster. Yet the line looks the best it has all year when helmed by the former undrafted free agent out of Utah State.

 

One of the most obvious improvements has been stouter pass protection. Larsen (6-foot-4, 335 pounds) replaced Gates (6-5, 312), and left guard Chris Paul (6-4, 324) stepped in for the injured Saahdiq Charles (6-4, 322), who has played lighter than his listed weight. Coach Ron Rivera estimated the line gained 60 pounds with Larsen and Paul as starters. There are trade-offs — the new linemen aren’t as athletic in the screen game, for example — but the switch has been worth it, considering the Commanders pass as often as any team in the NFL.

 

Compare how the Commanders handled blitzes against the New York Giants and the Patriots. In the New England game, in part because of Larsen, Howell had cleaner pockets and more time, as seen on his 33-yard touchdown throw to wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Several players also noted the benefits of a more successful running game.

“There’s a lot of girth between our two guards and our center,” Rivera said, explaining the boost in line play. “Secondly, I think the big part of it, too, has really been how veteran Tyler is — his experience, his understanding and feel for what we’re doing and how we’re doing it.”

 

...But Larsen is relatively quiet. He mentors Stromberg, whom the team hopes can be its center of the future, and he handles his business. Larsen describes himself as a family man with a steady routine; he looks forward to getting home from the office to go on walks with his wife, Sam, and their four kids. He’s vocal about autism awareness because his son Ty was diagnosed in 2019. There are times when he cuts the quintessential figure of a no-nonsense veteran.

 

“I don’t remember a single … play,” Larsen said after beating the Patriots. “I just remember blocking 90 [defensive tackle Christian Barmore] and 92 [defensive tackle Davon Godchaux]. That’s all I remember.”

 

On the field, Larsen communicates the protection calls and determines which way the line should slide. In the running game, he identifies the middle linebacker and helps organize the blocking assignments. It’s sometimes hard to pick up on his impact because he’s not theatrical and doing lots of arm-waving or chest-beating.

 
 

In his re-watch of the Patriots game, Rivera said, Larsen stood out when he picked up a three-man stunt. Cosmi was stuck on a rusher, so Larsen realized there would be an unfilled gap and slid over. He blocked the rusher, who otherwise would have broken through.

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10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Pass happy is good. The strength of this team right now is a strong arm QB throwing to above average skill position players. 

 

It's not good for Sam or for the offense in general.  It gets him hit too much and it kills our efficiency by making us too easy to defend.  We have got to find a way to have more balance in order to break through this 20-24 point wall we get stuck at each game.  Then we will have a legit potent scoring offense that can make a run for the playoffs.

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From Keim.  He's referenced Larsen replacing Gates has been a big deal.  Heck even Bieniemy has hinted said the same.  When Bieniemy mentioned Larsen brings a calmness, it seem to suggest Gates' at times high strung personality doesn't calm Howell.

 

Keim has now referenced many times they should have done more in the off season to upgrade this O line.  But what's interesting is he's hinted at it including in the article i posted the other day about Howell from him that this regime now gets that too.  I get the impression of this regime stays they'd attack the O line in the off season.  For me I don't care too little, too late, I want them gone.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38678708/nfl-2023-midseason-report-afc-nfc-questions-critical-stats

Washington Commanders (4-5)

FPI rank: 28
Chances to make the playoffs: 7.8%
Chances to win their division: Less than 0.1%

What we know: Quarterback Sam Howell can play. Through nine games, Howell, who entered the season with one career start, was second in the NFL in passing yards (2,471) and seventh in touchdowns (14) but also tied for first in interceptions (nine). In his past five games, he has thrown 10 touchdowns to only four picks. Howell still has a lot to learn before anyone can rightly know where his career ultimately will go, but he's off to a promising start.

What we don't know yet: Who will be retained? At 4-5, Washington likely will need a strong second half for the coaches to stick around another year under new owner Josh Harris. The Commanders haven't finished with a winning record in Ron Rivera's first three seasons, though they did win the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9. To help their case, the defense, which ranks 30th in points and 28th in yards, must finish strong.

Stat that defined the first half: Forty-four sacks allowed. It's a combination of youth (Howell), an offense that has thrown the ball 38 times more than the No. 2 team (Minnesota) and a line that needed to be built better. Howell was on pace to be sacked 97 times at one point but now is on pace for 83 -- which would still set an NFL record. Howell has remained healthy, but the sacks have lost an NFL-high 293 yards. -- John Keim

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Larsen is not an unlikely hero for most Washington fans. We watched what we brought to the table last year. Gates brought attitude to the line but by game 3 we were calling for Larsen or Strom to take over Center. The coaches just didn't want to admit mistakes. Next up, Wylie...

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11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable

 

I think the ceiling for this team is the 7th seed in the playoffs, making an immediate exit.  Even if Sam and the offense continue ascending, the defense is still awful.  I don’t think we are at risk of more Ron.

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25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable.

 

 

 

Listening to beat guys, Sheehan, etc, they assure me with what they are saying not to worry about Ron surviving because he won't.  I guess will see.

 

Ron IMO had an awful off season.  But his rhetoric has been equally off putting with the praise of Dan, send me my SB ring when I am gone, being annoyed with reporters expecting him to win in year 4, on and on.   The Chase Young stuff is a bit off putting, too for me.

 

I think he's a nice guy genuinely but has become delusional and was given so much power than he didn't realize it's gone to his head.  Another example of why we don't want a HC to run everything.  They start feeling entitled.  

 

Also if Ron runs to his usual script.  It might feel like a run now.  November is his month.  December alas isn't his month.  So far the season has happened like I expected.  Not that I predicted every win or loss correctly.  But I said a roller coaster.  Down moments.  But with some high moments where it feels like we might make the playoffs.  Until we don't.

 

Not that hard to predict, all am doing it rehashing the ride of the last 2 seasons.   There have been glimmers of optimism in both seasons.

 

I do think Howell makes it a bit different.  But also i didn't expect the defense to suck.  So i am not sure how that all balances out. 

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9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim has now referenced many times they should have done more in the off season to upgrade this O line.  But what's interesting is he's hinted at it including in the article i posted the other day about Howell from him that this regime now gets that too.  I get the impression of this regime stays they'd attack the O line in the off season.  For me I don't care too little, too late, I want them gone.

 

I'm never going to agree that their effort on building the OL this off-season was drastically deficient and a cause for firing.  The OL isn't even that bad this year.  We're 14th in pass block win rate and 17th in run block win rate.  The line is average, which is a good outcome considering how awful the draft class was and how treacherous the FA class ended up being.  People got too down on the line because of how many sacks we were giving up, without recognizing that isn't the best way to judge the line.  We were throwing at the highest rate in the league and Sam and Bieniemy are inexperienced and learning on the job.  The focus on the sacks caused people to miss that we were actually still winning our blocks and moving the ball most of the game.

 

I'm wondering when the fan base is going to come around and admit that not only is Andrew Wylie not a terrible player, he is actually pretty good.  It's happened with Leno, eventually Wylie's PFF scores and AV totals and block win rate stats will get through too.  He was our best choice to upgrade tackle this off-season.  He's been flat out better than McGlinchey and Jawaan Taylor at half their price, and he is clearly a better fit for our offense than Kaleb McGary.  He's also been better than all of the rookie tackles picked after 16, so unless you want to argue that not moving up for Darnell Wright is a fireable offense, I don't buy that any rookie draft option was clearly better for the line this year.

 

As for the swing on Gates, we had to bring in some kind of vet.  We drafted an OC that most of you all loved, but he wasn't going to be ready to play this year.  Very few rookie Cs are ever good and this C class had no high end prospects in it.  We absolutely could not go into the year penciling in Larsen as the vet C after consecutive season ending injuries.  We needed an outside vet and Gates was cheap.  Ethan Pocic was the only better option, and he apparently wanted to stay with the Browns.

 

We did the best we could.  We didn't reach in the draft or overspend in free agency.  We had a tight budget to work with because the franchise was trapped in the middle of being sold for the entire player acquisition period of the off-season. Our OL coach missed a lot of the off-season because of surgery.  We had to replace four starting spots from last year's line.  And we have an inexperienced QB and offensive playcaller who both had issues with pressure that followed them here from their previous teams.

 

Bottom line, we got a decent starting RT on a bargain contract and a cheap vet C who can at least be a decent back up in an off-season where it was a struggle to find the money to keep our own players.  We got a couple of nice interior OL prospects in the middle rounds of a bad draft class.  Stromberg still has a great chance to be our starting OC next year, and Braeden Daniels is still a good project despite his injury.  The dude has a very similar physical profile to Joe Thuney, who is an awesome player for KC and a clear fit for this offense.  That's not bad work and the results have not been nearly as bad as people say.

 

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26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I'm never going to agree that their effort on building the OL this off-season was drastically deficient and a cause for firing.  

 

 

I know.

 

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The line is average, which is a good outcome considering how awful the draft class was and how treacherous the FA class ended up being. 

 

 

As to pure stats-pressures -- this o line is bottom rung.  

 

PFF this O line's best friend still ranks it #20 this week.  That's below average.   I agree that they (if PFF is now the be all and end all judge) don't think its terrible but they do think its below average.

 

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

We were throwing at the highest rate in the league and Sam and Bieniemy are inexperienced and learning on the job.  

 

 

I agree that its a contributing factor.

 

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

 

I'm wondering when the fan base is going to come around and admit that not only is Andrew Wylie not a terrible player, he is actually pretty good. 

 

 

I know you like Wylie.  The only thing I'll say in his defense but its also a criticism is this.  I studied him like i studied draft prospects.   i wrote a long take on him before the season.  Doesn't mean i am right but I spent enough time on him to feel that I can come up with an opinion.  His wins are very clean.  He stays square in front of the defenders and unlike some prospects I've watched, when he wins they aren't sloppy where they are barely get by type of wins.  In other words, the defenders don't often get to his outside shoulder where it looks like he's poised to lose contain but scrapes by.  His wins are very solid.

 

But then bam, he gives up a bad pressure or sack.  Often at critical times in games.  To use a baseball analogy, it won't be a sloppy inning where he loads the bases and gets out of it by hook or crook.  He's the type that gives up homeruns.  When he gets hit he gets hit hard.  So it makes sense that an outfit like PFF would like him. PFF doesn't give a rats behind of it a pressure or sack in a big moment.  Every play is graded the same way.  So if he wins cleanly on lets say 25 reps. But then gives up a few pressures and a sack.  By their metrics that's a good game.

 

He's 4th in the league in sacks given up.  And I think he's top 3 in pressures.    And we've seen the bad sacks and pressures come at inopportune moments in games.  So for fans to embrace Wylie, I think you might be waiting a long time.   I don't recall much consternation about Leno, at least nothing like Wylie.

 

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

He's also been better than all of the rookie tackles picked after 16, so unless you want to argue that not moving up for Darnell Wright is a fireable offense, I don't buy that any rookie draft option was clearly better for the line this year.

 

 

  

Even if I bought into your thought that Wylie was the best signing they could have made.  2 thoughts on that.

 

1.  My want in FA was interior not tackle.  I agree the tackle market wasn't hot.  That's what the draft was for,

 

2.  i am not gradiing Ron on a curve which you seem to be doing.  He made these bad moves to create these specific holes.  So whether their permutations of the draft and FA didn't flow to dig himself out of the hole he put himself in is irrelevant to me.   

 

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

That's not bad work and the results have not been nearly as bad as people say.

 

 

Feels like even Ron realizes he didn't do enough to upgrade the O line based on what's been said recently.  

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42 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable.

 

My sense of the way the FO works is that Ron doesn't get very involved with the player personnel operations of the FO.  I think he lets Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble run their draft and free agency the way they want to, and I know I'm alone on this take, but I think Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble generally do a good job.  So even though Ron is their boss, I think they are still empowered to operate the way a regular FO does, and do so.

 

I think Eugene Shen was Harris's way of trying to strengthen the FO with a high level voice in the room who shares his sports management philosophy, and this was done in lieu of firing the GMs and bringing in his own people.  I think that Harris doesn't view that as necessary yet based on how the season has gone.

 

And lastly, I think we all jumped the gun on writing out Rivera's pink slip based on the first half of the season.  I'm pretty sure I did.  If Rivera truly has found his franchise QB like we are all hoping, then that should reset his window here.  He also did what Harris wanted and traded Montez and Chase and proved he will collaborate with Harris's vision and basically made sure the team will stay cheap for next season.  He's only one game out of a wild card spot at the halfway point, and the Vikings are super vulnerable.  He's not giving Josh Harris reasons to fire him.

 

I want to see this effort to develop Sam Howell play out.  Ron's and Bieniemy have done a poor job coaching most of this year, but they're Sam's best shot at panning out here.  They are necessarily 100% in his corner and them getting to at least see out there contracts buys the necessary time for Sam to grow into the job.

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3 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

My sense of the way the FO works is that Ron doesn't get very involved with the player personnel operations of the FO.  I think he lets Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble run their draft and free agency the way they want to, and I know I'm alone on this take, but I think Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble generally do a good job.  So even though Ron is their boss, I think they are still empowered to operate the way a regular FO does, and do so.

 

I think Eugene Shen was Harris's way of trying to strengthen the FO with a high level voice in the room who shares his sports management philosophy, and this was done in lieu of firing the GMs and bringing in his own people.  I think that Harris doesn't view that as necessary yet based on how the season has gone.

 

And lastly, I think we all jumped the gun on writing out Rivera's pink slip based on the first half of the season.  I'm pretty sure I did.  If Rivera truly has found his franchise QB like we are all hoping, then that should reset his window here.  He also did what Harris wanted and traded Montez and Chase and proved he will collaborate with Harris's vision and basically made sure the team will stay cheap for next season.  He's only one game out of a wild card spot at the halfway point, and the Vikings are super vulnerable.  He's not giving Josh Harris reasons to fire him.

 

I want to see this effort to develop Sam Howell play out.  Ron's and Bieniemy have done a poor job coaching most of this year, but they're Sam's best shot at panning out here.  They are necessarily 100% in his corner and them getting to at least see out there contracts buys the necessary time for Sam to grow into the job.

 

I don't think the FO does a bad job at identifying talent. I think they do a bad job maximizing it. They overdraft, they don't manage assets...

 

Which was why trading Young AND Sweat was a major positive in my eyes. It's a step in the right direction.

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15 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

My sense of the way the FO works is that Ron doesn't get very involved with the player personnel operations of the FO.  I think he lets Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble run their draft and free agency the way they want to, and I know I'm alone on this take, but I think Mayhew, Hurney, and Gribble generally do a good job.  So even though Ron is their boss, I think they are still empowered to operate the way a regular FO does, and do so.

 

I think Eugene Shen was Harris's way of trying to strengthen the FO with a high level voice in the room who shares his sports management philosophy, and this was done in lieu of firing the GMs and bringing in his own people.  I think that Harris doesn't view that as necessary yet based on how the season has gone.

 

And lastly, I think we all jumped the gun on writing out Rivera's pink slip based on the first half of the season.  I'm pretty sure I did.  If Rivera truly has found his franchise QB like we are all hoping, then that should reset his window here.  He also did what Harris wanted and traded Montez and Chase and proved he will collaborate with Harris's vision and basically made sure the team will stay cheap for next season.  He's only one game out of a wild card spot at the halfway point, and the Vikings are super vulnerable.  He's not giving Josh Harris reasons to fire him.

 

I want to see this effort to develop Sam Howell play out.  Ron's and Bieniemy have done a poor job coaching most of this year, but they're Sam's best shot at panning out here.  They are necessarily 100% in his corner and them getting to at least see out there contracts buys the necessary time for Sam to grow into the job.

 

You liked Ron's off season and were all in on him coming back and defended Ron a bunch this off season.  Then you were out on Ron when the season started going south,    Now you want Ron back again.

 

Feels to me you somewhat a victim of the vicissitudes of a Ron Rivera season here.  Lows.  Highs.  Highs usually right now this month.  But we end up around 8-9.  the emotions of the ride ebb and flow.  i am tired of it.

 

I think its beyond absurd that a new coaching regime-FO would dump Sam if he keeps going on this trajectory.  This franchise couldn't find that guy forever and the first thing they'd do is move on from a dude who has looked the best in season 1 since RG3.  Eagles don't do it with Hurts.  Giants don't do it with Daniel Jones.  None of our previous regimes did it -- not Gibbs, not Zorn, not Jay and that's for dudes who weren't playing well.  I think the odds that a new coach would jump ship on Howell from the jump is maybe 1%?  

 

The idea that Ron did what Harris wanted with Chase is wild.  Have you been paying attention to all the stories circulating about that move.  Ron would have likely moved Chase for a 7th rounder if that's all he got.  He was done with him.  Based on Chase's comments the feeling was clearly mutual on that front. 

 

I don't get the vibe that next season they are going cheap.  Clearly with all the rap about the O line, they plan to spend there and elsewhere next off season.  According to both Keim and Russini the vibe is expect an aggressive off season for a change. 

 

I don't think Harris would survive fan outcry for Ron coming back this off season.  I think he's smart enough to see that so i am not worried. 

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Yeah I don't buy this argument that a new regime would just dump Howell, assuming he continues his current trajectory. Now if you wanna argue that Howell having to learn his third new system in three years will hurt him, then I can see that. But personally I think that's overblown. If your QB is good and the coach/OC is good, you'll be fine. People like to bring up Jason Campbell and how he had to learn a new system every year, but Campbell sucked(or was average at his best)regardless and it wouldn't have mattered.

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13 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

This is pretty good. And is what most of us see. The building blocks are there for an elite QB. His footwork still needs work. That will come with time. The pass pro is suspect. Thomas really got exposed in that vid as a serious liability in pass protection. And either EB's route design is poor or the WR's are running wrong routes quite often. We could never know which is going on though. With all of the limitations the team/scheme is putting on Howell's development he has actually been quite impressive. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is pretty good. And is what most of us see. The building blocks are there for an elite QB. His footwork still needs work. That will come with time. The pass pro is suspect. Thomas really got exposed in that vid as a serious liability in pass protection. And either EB's route design is poor or the WR's are running wrong routes quite often. We could never know which is going on though. With all of the limitations the team/scheme is putting on Howell's development he has actually been quite impressive. 

The WR routes are a concern. I'm starting to think it actually might be the WRs. We had that same issue last year with Turner as well, guys running in the same place. 

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12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Pass happy is good. The strength of this team right now is a strong arm QB throwing to above average skill position players. 

Before the season I would have agreed that we have above average skill position players. I dont anymore. Howell has actually exposed the weaknesses of them with his arm. We need to find a couple in the off season imo. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Before the season I would have agreed that we have above average skill position players. I dont anymore. Howell has actually exposed the weaknesses of them with his arm. We need to find a couple in the off season imo. 

I think our WR corps is still above average. Its not dominant, but definitely above average. Thomas is a solid receiver(but not a dynamic threat and can't block for crap). The RBs have made plays and are a decent group.

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11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

He's 4th in the league in sacks given up.  And I think he's top 3 in pressures.    And we've seen the bad sacks and pressures come at inopportune moments in games.  So for fans to embrace Wylie, I think you might be waiting a long time.   I don't recall much consternation about Leno, at least nothing like Wylie.

 

You're focusing on a narrow evaluation that is absolutely a direct result of the style of offense we have run and the QB being inexperienced.  When you throw 40 times a game and most of those are long developing concepts from a true pass set, then your tackles are going to lose blocks and give up more pressures than every team below that extreme.  It's just too large a volume of disadvantaged pass blocking reps where the defense knows what you are doing beforehand and you have to block longer than the norm.  The same thing happened to KC last year, but they still had a great offense playing in that style.

 

I don't buy the un-clutch argument either.  If my tackle is winning 90% of his pass blocks, then that's good enough period.  All players make mistakes that feel big and horribly timed in the heat of a game, and the fans absolutely did crush Leno for his missed blocks that felt like game losers.  Remember Kayvon Thibodeaux's first career touchdown last year?  That play basically caused the fan base to write Leno off as a low ceiling JAG who needed an immediate upgrade.  Well we were wrong about that.  Leno is pretty good, affordable, and upgrading him won't be easy even if we use a high first round pick.

 

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Even if I bought into your thought that Wylie was the best signing they could have made.  2 thoughts on that.

 

1.  My want in FA was interior not tackle.  I agree the tackle market wasn't hot.  That's what the draft was for,

 

2.  i am not gradiing Ron on a curve which you seem to be doing.  He made these bad moves to create these specific holes.  So whether their permutations of the draft and FA didn't flow to dig himself out of the hole he put himself in is irrelevant to me.   

 

If viewing our offseason moves in the full context necessary to understand what was possible and prudent is grading on a curve, then so be it.  I hated giving up on Scherff and Trent too, but we did replace them with good players.  Leno and Cosmi are legitimately good.  Andrew Wylie is pretty good too.  They make up for losing Trent, Scherff, and Moses.

 

Do you really think Ron deserves to be fired for not picking Christian Darrisaw in 2021?  For not trading up for Darnell Wright this year?  Even though our current tackles are both decent players and certainly aren't the source of our problems on offense (or with the team as a whole)?  There is so much more that goes into a coaching regime's worthiness than contingencies built around one or two players, especially an OL.

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Just now, Warhead36 said:

I think our WR corps is still above average. Its not dominant, but definitely above average. Thomas is a solid receiver(but not a dynamic threat and can't block for crap). The RBs have made plays and are a decent group.

Honestly the only one I consider above average right now is Terry. And he has had his share of drops as well. All of the rest are replaceable imo. 

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