The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, sinews said:

I can't be the only one who thinks Daniels is the ultimate smokescreen and that our FO is going to surprise most everyone on Thursday. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. I've made amends with the JD pick but I still think it will be Maye. I reserve the right to be wrong, of course. 

 

Look, I simply don't buy the apparent universal narrative around Daniels. It's *too* much, they overclocked him. I'd be willing to bet that all these insider voices trace back to the same pool of about ~15 people and the rest is amplification and echo chamber. You know these reporters are busy and stretched as is, they aren't conducting scientific polls. They all have their go-to sources and almost certainly some of them overlap. 

 

Something doesn't add up here.

 

In any case, I actually prefer Daniels as a passer to a runner, I just want to see him do it consistently when his run threat is mitigated or taken away. I honestly don't think he'll be able to break those long ones in college as easily in the pros. 

 

I have thought about this too. I think it's unlikely. I don't think anyone of our team is working on a smokescreen because there simply is no need for it. The draft starts at #2. The reality is, that they do not talk. Everything comes from outside. How credible that is, who knows. But I think at this point it is undeniable that this has gained a lot of steam in recent days and I am not super confident that this is all unbased.

 

However, I would absolutely LOVE it, if we surprise everyone and pick Maye. Not just because I think Maye is the clearly (!) better prospect but because I would love how no one in the entire league had any idea what we are doing. And I think that is a good representation of a functional organization. The same is true if we end up picking JJ obviously. But I wouldn't love that because I don't think he is on the same level as Daniels, let alone Maye.

[Warhead36]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I hope, if all of this smoke is fire, that you're going to survive this. 

Meh, Ive accepted that its gonna be Daniels. 

[Going Commando]

****ing RGIII.  No I do not want another 2012.  I want an annual contender for the next 15 years.  How pathetic is it that 2012 has become our Glory Days for anyone who didn't grow up in the 80s?

[Warhead36]

Just now, Going Commando said:

****ing RGIII.  No I do not want another 2012.  I want an annual contender for the next 15 years.  How pathetic is it that 2012 has become our Glory Days for anyone who didn't grow up in the 80s?

I want 2012 repeat for the next decade without the injury. 

[Chump Bailey]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Doesnt make sense to me either but ultimately Im just a dumb fan so wtf do I know?

 

Far from it partner. 

[sinews]

Maybe smokescreen is the wrong term, force of habit. I don't think our FO is deliberately putting out fact or fiction to throw off the scent or anything, they're just letting the media do their job and run with whatever narrative is hot. And JD is *hot*

 

I just think the FO is doing their own thing and we'll have to see if that coincides with the seeming league-wide opinion on Thursday. Can't wait! 

Edited April 23 by sinews

[OtisDriftwood25]

There is pressure in the media to get the top few picks right. Ron use to feed Standig our picks so it was easier to decipher in the past.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

There’s literally nothing to suggest that our coaches are in the bag for Daniels, nor Peters is succumbing to pressure from them to draft him.

 

 

 

Yeah I get Maye is VERY VERY VERY popular on this thread.  And Daniels has become VERY VERY VERY unpopular on this thread.  Not with all but some.

 

And that's cool., Maye's my guy too.  And in most of the draft world that I watch puts me in the orbit of seeing a lot of pro Daniels takes versus Maye.  So this place is a nice refuge from that.  If I want to go to my pro Maye country its this thread and PFF primarily.  Just never been part of the anti-Daniels camp.  But do share some love for Maye.

 

I know the Peters hire was much better received than the Quinn hire.  So our favorite hero Peters has to be with us on Maye.  And if they don't go with Maye, it has to be that rascal Quinn who oddly seems obsessed with what keeps defensive coordinators up late at night.

 

Look I got no doubt everyone is part of this decision and will weigh in.  That's been said,  They would be idiots not to do it that way IMO.   I doubt teams ever with their first round picks in particular don't discuss that pick with the coaches and get their input.  But the final call for a GM driven FO is the GM.

 

And what makes it even clearer in this case is Quinn in two different interviews referenced how Peters is teaching him how to do the QB evaluations and in one of those interviews said he left that session with Peters and told his wife wow is Peters a stud.

 

I'll say this at a minimum if Keim is right and Maye might be third on their board right now -- no way I buy that Peters is pounding the table for Maye.  It actually sounds ridiculous that it would be the case if Keim is right.  We read recently the story about how Harris didn't go with Magic Johnson's recommendation for Belichick in part because he wanted a GM centric model not a HC driven model.  

 

Yet, Peters somehow fell under his own sword and made it a defacto HC model and having a D coordinator make the call for him.

 

It takes a lot of imagination IMO to make the case that this wasn't Peters call at the end.  Having said that, will see, there is always some expose at some point about how the sausage was made.  But I'd say at a minimum zero chance Peters is pining right now for Maye if he's indeed 3rd on the board. 

Edited April 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, sinews said:

Maybe smokescreen is the wrong term, force of habit. I don't think our FO is deliberately putting out fact or fiction to throw off the scent or anything, they're just letting the media do their job and run with whatever narrative is hot. And JD is *hot*

 

I just think the FO is doing their own thing and we'll have to see if that coincides with the seeming league-wide opinion on Thursday. Can't wait! 

I legit believe other teams are forcing the Daniels hype to get us to pick him. Maye is the real prize(after Caleb of course). 

[Chris 44]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Meh, Ive accepted that its gonna be Daniels. 

Not me...Im holding out for Maye.

[Warhead36]

Just now, Chris 44 said:

Not me...Im holding out for Maye.

Itd be so cool if we really did fool/shock the world and take Maye. Would put us on the map as one of THOSE teams that really are operating on another level.

 

But thats never in the cards for us. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I legit believe other teams are forcing the Daniels hype to get us to pick him. Maye is the real prize(after Caleb of course). 

 

Peters would have to be weaker and dumber than Bruce Allen and Cerrato to let media noise determine which player he likes best.

 

[Panninho]

 

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Almost never is big time hyperbole.  If they draft him, I'll spend a day just capturing some of these plays.  It's not just once in a blue moon.  But its definitiely not nearly enough.

 

If I can do something very well.  I can be taught to that thing I do well more often.  I don't think that's a cazy high mountain to climb.  But will see.

This guys is getting his stats mostly from PFF. 15 attempts in 1 season is not a lot, that equates to a little more than once per game when scrambling. For a guy who is as much on the move as Daniels that is a ridiculously low number. Not talking about designed roll-outs but off schedule improvisation. Just from my personal memore, I cannot remember many instances of seeing Daniels throw while scrambling either.

 

Edited April 23 by Panninho

[Chris 44]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Itd be so cool if we really did fool/shock the world and take Maye. Would put us on the map as one of THOSE teams that really are operating on another level.

 

But thats never in the cards for us. 

 I dont look at it as a shock other than it appears to be going against the narrative/grain in the media right now, I just feel he is the better prospect especially viewing long term.

[Panninho]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Peters would have to be weaker and dumber than Bruce Allen and Cerrato to let media noise determine which player he likes best.

 

Yeah. I don't see that happening. If they pick Daniels, I think they pick him because they flat out think he is the better QB. I don't see that personally but I don't think that Peters is a fool that gets talked into a pick.

[TheGoodBits]

7 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Yeah. I don't see that happening. If they pick Daniels, I think they pick him because they flat out think he is the better QB. I don't see that personally but I don't think that Peters is a fool that gets talked into a pick.

Agreed. All the media reports are that league scouts and teams have a significant preference for Daniels. They view him as 1B to Caleb’s 1A (with a handful thinking Daniels is the 1A). If Washington doesn’t pick him, it’s one of two reasons:

 

-either the narrative is dead wrong and just silly season BS

or

-something about Daniels spooked us (medicals, interview, etc)

 

I think there’s too much out there from reliable reports to think the narrative is BS. So I fully expect the pick to be Daniels, but if it is not, it’s probably not based on that is on tape. 

Edited April 23 by TheGoodBits

[OtisDriftwood25]

I was pretty much locked in on JD when they traded Howell. I do not think Cooley does as much research as he use to but I agree with one thing. Maye could have the most upside in the draft but would benifit from sitting year one. I do not think this team signed Marriota with the intention of starting him without injury. I see a lot of similarities with Maye and Jordan Love. In terms of footwork and seeing it open. It’s no knock to Maye. I believe an offensive coach like KO could make year one work with him. Good offensive line, true number one receiver, great play calling.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Yeah. I don't see that happening. If they pick Daniels, I think they pick him because they flat out think he is the better QB. I don't see that personally but I don't think that Peters is a fool that gets talked into a pick.

 

Agree.  Peters is collabrative.  I think most good GMs are.  The monolithic types ala Belichick IMO aren't as good at what they do.  

 

Look even as an amatueur who has fun doing draft evaluations for kicks -- am almost done with my O line rankings which I'll post today.  But before I do, I'll start reading what others say.  Sometimes it doesn't register with me.  But sometimes it makes me to take another look -- and try to see what they are seeing.

 

I am sure for someone like Peters its that point on sterioids.  It doesn't hurt to listen.  

 

And its sexy to bring the coaches into this as to a media story.  I got no doubt if they pick whichever QB they pick we will read some expose about Kliff liked this, Brian Johnson liked that, Quinn liked that, etc.    GMs like to give the vibe that everyone weighed in versus being dictators.  And I'll put money that whenever the story comes out it will reference what the coaches liked, and some will say, aha! Seeeeeeeee!  the coaches made the call.  

 

But lol, almost every story about a draft pick is a celebration story where everyone was on board.  And for those who want to make the case that it was coaches.  They will have that ammunition because when don't you read about coaches loving the player they just took?  

 

But getting past that, Peters was hired to run a GM centric model.  If he was a figurehead to the coaches, why not just stay in SF?  He wanted this job from what I've read in part because he would have real power, not fake power.  Harris also prefers the GM centric model.  So you got all of that AND Quinn flat out saying that Peters is teaching him how to evaluate QBs including things he's never thought of in the past. 

 

Yet somehow i am supposed to believe that Peters loves another QB more but the poor sap is subjugating his take for others in the most important pick of his career when he came here in the first place for having real power and specifically not having a coach with the final say.

 

 

Edited April 23 by Skinsinparadise

[fanman8825]

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Doesnt make sense to me either but ultimately Im just a dumb fan so wtf do I know? Still feel like Daniels over Maye is a colossal blunder but Ill learn to live with it.

I am with you as well. I am really still surprised it’s going to be Daniels. Sure I will still hold out hope for Thursday but the writing is on the wall for JD

[Warhead36]

I will say in watching more Daniels tape, yeah he doesn't throw on the move often, but when he does he is actually quite good at it. I've always said I love how quick and fluid his release is(very Aaron Rodgers-esque in that regard). So the optimist in me is thinking we can coach him to do that more instead of run more. I believe in college he was always coached to run when out of the pocket because his legs were more of a weapon than any receiver he could find, but for us he'll have some dawgs(like he put it) to get the ball to when he's on the move.

 

I will also say that I think our offense at the very least has a chance to be exciting and fun to watch. Again, like 2012 vibes, except with a better set of skill players around the QB and more picks to get even more help as well(our 2012 draft did nothing to help RG3 with no 2nd, bust Lariebus in the 3rd, and Cousins a backup QB in the 4th).

 

And I will also say that our Kingsbury, Johnson, and Pritchard are all used to mobile/athletic QBs. Heck even our OL coach's best results came when coaching up an OL for a mobile/athletic QB(Allen in Buffalo). So, I think they can develop something that'll allow Daniels to hit the ground running(no pun intended).

 

At the very least there are at least reasons to be optimistic for taking Daniels. How long will it last before he gets himself killed? Who the heck knows. 

[KDawg]

I haven’t seen many people really change their stances on these guys. 
 

The knocks/positives are all the same. They haven’t changed one bit. Preferences have, but no new info has really come out aside from Daniels agent being an agent of chaos.

 

Maye: big, strong, fast, athletic, strong arm. Sloppy/happy feet, sacks himself, mechanics cause accuracy issues

 

Daniels: Fast, athletic, baseline to a bit better NFL arm, high end production, clean mechanics. Frail (this is a really big knock), game is reliant on speed which makes bulking up a lot more complicated, agent says stupid ****.

 

McCarthy: good across the board but master of nothing, athletic, fast, protects himself, has the most experience as it pertains to various forms off offense (gun, under, etc), reports indicate his teammates would run through a wall for him. He didn’t throw much, Michigan leaned on strong running game and not him, didn’t need to come up clutch most of the time, doesn’t have the same perceived ceiling as the others.

 

Williams: Athletic, absolute monster of a playmaker, good arm, has faced a lot of adversity at USC, good athlete. Holds the ball too long, quirky dude, doesn’t handle adversity well outwardly (not a personal issue, we’re all different, but how does a locker room respond?) and he’s shorter than the rest.

 

Nothing has changed. With any of them.

 

 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

13 hours ago, KDawg said:

It’s tricky. He’s a mid 20’s male athlete who has had top flight nutritionists available to him since at least 2018.

 

Adding muscle mass is doable, and adding it gradually will help, but it’s tricky. Some guys put on weight and lose a lot of their quickness, even if the speed remains. Some do it so we’ll you barely notice.

 

He certainly can add good weight to his frame. He has the room for it. But he has to be careful. The reason he’s so highly touted is his ability to make plays with his legs.

 

His smart move is to slowly fade away from being a runner - stop me if you’ve heard that from someone before - and become a bit bigger and a pocket passer. That increases his longevity tenfold. But that transition should really be through his rookie contract.

 

The discipline to do that is… not common. And he’s had the opportunity to do it while in college and hasn’t. 
 

I don’t know.

 

I keep coming back to the “well, if he’s healthy you’re going to be so happy they picked him” and it’s reassuring as hell.

 

Until the cynical side of my brain says, “ya, but what if he’s not?”

Can putting on considerable mass severely alter your passing accuracy, similar to nba players with their shot?

[KDawg]

Just now, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Can putting on considerable mass severely alter your passing accuracy, similar to nba players with their shot?

I mean, it could. But he can’t pack on considerable mass anyways. 10-15 lbs seems like a lot but over his entire body shouldn’t screw with throwing mechanics too much. The dude has ALOT of room to grow. 

[Warhead36]

Just now, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Can putting on considerable mass severely alter your passing accuracy, similar to nba players with their shot?

It shouldn't if it comes on naturally but the issue again is Daniels's frame isn't really built to add more weight. 

 

We're honestly better off him just staying super light and hoping his quick release/processing and super speed keep him out of harm's way, but we should accept the fact that its likely he'll miss 2-3 games a year minimum.

[Dan T.]

9 hours ago, Conn said:

It’s a vanishingly small chance at an extremely low percentage play. Drafting a top QB is also a low percentage play, yes—but it’s the best chance you have. Purposely settling for a QB outside that top-10ish talent bar just lowers your odds to hit a ton. 
 

Penix will probably go top-20 because teams are desperate. Nix won’t be a 1st round pick. You’d have to really hate winning football games and playoff games to purposely trade out of the premium QB picks for one of these lesser prospects in the mid-1st to mid-2nd. It’s not viable unless you get extremely lucky. The 49ers built an incredible roster and if they didn’t absolutely luck out with Purdy as a late round pick they would all be well on their way to getting fired with no answer forthcoming at QB. Again it’s not viable because you can’t plan for it, you luck into it. You can’t purposely hit on a QB between the 2nd and 7th rounds, it’s luck. And you’re even lucky if a mid-1st round QB hits. Hell you’re lucky (but less lucky) if a top-5 pick QB hits. But these things come in degrees, and you’d be absolutely crazy not to take the swing on the blue chip prospect in the top-3 when you have the chance, you may not draft that highly again for a decade if our FO is remotely competent. It’s extremely hard to be that bad. We’re extremely lucky to be in this position and the stars really had to align for us to be here at #2, even with the team totally quitting on Rivera and lacking in talent we barely did it. 

There’s a fallacy in your argument and it’s named Trey Lance the Niners’ number 3 overall pick in 2021. 
 

it goes to show it’s all a crapshoot, even at the top of the draft. The Redskins/Commanders have too many examples of this going back to Heath Shuler, Haskins, RG3, etc.  Ask your grandad about Gary Beban. 
 

It would not surprise me if Bo Nix  or Michael Pennix has a better NFL career than Maye, Daniels, or MCCarthy. 
 

Evaluators do the best they can with the information they have, but man, life and football is really complicated.