2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

There are 4 players I see them taking at 11 and ignoring trade options:

Wilson who was the potential of becoming a WR1 and a dangerous punt returner

London who is a great fit opposite Terry and for Wentz plus eases the need for an additional TE

Hamilton and Lloyd who can be moved like chess pieces in the D

 

 

 

 

 

That's where I am, too.

 

And if both receivers are gone I'm at least listening to trade offers to move back. Would take a lot for me to move from Lloyd. Wouldn't take as much for me to move off Hamilton.

 

Personally, I want nothing to do with the corners. Zero. Not a knock on their abilities or what I think their careers could be. But I don't think they are as good on the need weighted BPA scale as Lloyd, Hamilton, Wilson or London. 

 

I also strongly believe the best way to help our D isn't by drafting more defensive talent. It's to make sure the offense can win a track meet. IF Brown turns out to be the deep threat and Samuel returns to Carolina form... Adding another solid receiver opposite McLaurin and adding a back makes this offense a lot more dynamic and dangerous. 

[mhd24]

If London & Wilson are gone, that means (most likely), then the top 10 went (in some order):  Hutch, Walker, Ekwonu, KT, Neal, Cross, Gardner, Wilson, Johnson, & London.  At 11, all QBs are available (along with Hamilton, Olave, Lloyd, Stingley, and Penning).  The following teams behind us are:

12). Minny (would trade up for Stingley, an edge (if KT or Johnson slip), or Davis

13). Hou (would trade up for an edge, Hamilton, or Davis)

14). Bal (would trade up for Stingley, an edge, or Penning)

15). Philly (not likely to trade with division, but if they offered a premium, than maybe)

16). NO (could trade up for QB1, although they likely want WR, OL, or CB)

17). LAC (could easily trade up (don't have a lot of capital) for Penning or Davis)

18). NO (see above)

19). Philly (see above)

20). Pitt (I don't see it, but I guess for QB.  I think they'll be patient and wait)

21). NE (don't see them trading up)

22). GB (unless they love Olave and are willing to give up a premium)

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I also strongly believe the best way to help our D isn't by drafting more defensive talent. It's to make sure the offense can win a track meet. IF Brown turns out to be the deep threat and Samuel returns to Carolina form... Adding another solid receiver opposite McLaurin and adding a back makes this offense a lot more dynamic and dangerous. 

 

Yep.  They got to be able to put up points.  I recall in 2018 when they had a nice run for a stretch grinding out tight wins mostly -- when they faced a hot Matt Ryan and a hot Drew Brees they got smoked.  They need to be a team for all seasons so to speak.  Another big time WR, and RB I think would get that done.

 

Below is what a personnel guy from another team said about this team

 

 

[Koolblue13]

@Skinsinparadise I'm pretty sure that Steve was saying Wentz has only played with the best centers, not bad ones.

[Skinsinparadise]

Brugler's new mock, funky in places, he is usually somewhat plugged in.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

@Skinsinparadise I'm pretty sure that Steve was saying Wentz has only played with the best centers, not bad ones.

 

You are right, I read that point too fast.  I deleted that point now.  It doesn't though change my thoughts about Linderbaum.  I like him as a player but that's now who I want in the first considering the context of this team.  If I am another team with a different context in play, then yeah in the late first, i'd be good with it. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

That's where I am, too.

 

And if both receivers are gone I'm at least listening to trade offers to move back. Would take a lot for me to move from Lloyd. Wouldn't take as much for me to move off Hamilton.

 

Personally, I want nothing to do with the corners. Zero. Not a knock on their abilities or what I think their careers could be. But I don't think they are as good on the need weighted BPA scale as Lloyd, Hamilton, Wilson or London. 

 

I also strongly believe the best way to help our D isn't by drafting more defensive talent. It's to make sure the offense can win a track meet. IF Brown turns out to be the deep threat and Samuel returns to Carolina form... Adding another solid receiver opposite McLaurin and adding a back makes this offense a lot more dynamic and dangerous. 

If they took any other player unless there was a freak faller I would consider it a reach based on their belief in a need. It would totally be a Davis style move. I am worried this occurs but as I have stated many times, very much would rather a small trade down. 

 

The teams #1 need is definitely to bring in another weapon. Would love to see Terry with serious (healthy) weapons around him coupled with a QB that is capable of all the tosses.

 

As far as CB's go, I am a big fan of Gardner and Stingley but I agree they don't fill the largest needs.

 

I evidently see our needs as wider than some. I hate that we didn't address at least one of them before entering the draft. To me, that and not working on a contract with Terry are two pre draft missteps 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Brugler's new mock, funky in places, he is usually somewhat plugged in.

 

 

 

I think I've said this before but...

 

I LOVE seeing Sam Howell to Washington. If this was before we traded for Wentz.

 

To use our 2,3,5 and next year's 2 or 3 on QBs who aren't surefire franchise guys is WAY too much draft capital. Our QB shopping for the year is done, in my opinion. If Wentz flames our season is shot anyways and I want a shot at next year's QB crop.

 

That would be a mistake. And I am big time on the Howell fan club. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Mrshadow008]

Welp im officially out on Hamilton just cant trust a player with this type of judgement 🤣

[DWinzit]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Brugler's new mock, funky in places, he is usually somewhat plugged in.

 

 

 

You are right, I read that point too fast.  I deleted that point now.  It doesn't though change my thoughts about Linderbaum.  I like him as a player but that's now who I want in the first considering the context of this team.  If I am another team with a different context in play, then yeah in the late first, i'd be good with it. 

I would have guessed they take London over Hamilton

 

Looking at the selections in the 40's sure ticks me off about giving up those few spots to Indy

[markmills67]

I'm still sticking with who I think the Commanders will draft in the 1st round. 

 

Jordan Davis (DT). 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

To Keim's point about not needing Lloyd because we don't need a third linebacker, at no point in his hypothetical career as a Washington Commander would Devin Lloyd be LB3 here.  He's booting Jamin or Holcomb out of a starting job because he's way better than both of them.  You draft Lloyd because he's a great player and an upgrade over two guys who are not good players.  At what point in the offseason did we do a 180 and decide that Jamin and Holcomb weren't garbage and LBer was no longer the weakest spot on the defense?  Because that was an indelible lesson of the season.

 

Knowing Keim some.  He's almost never advocating "his" point.  He's just about always advocating what he thinks they are thinking based on his sources with the team.  He's not always right but often is on that front.  Among other things, he's the only reporter who pulled off Wentz being on their radar.  I used to think Standig was just a hair behind Keim as for being plugged in but I'd say not anymore, since Standig said he was surprised about the Wentz deal.

 

As I put on here before, Keim months back talked a lot about LB and Lloyd specifically was mentioned more than any other player.  But after they acquired Wentz, and let Landon Collins go there seems to be a shift in their thinking.  But also if you follow what Keim says (which again is what he's hearing they are thinking) they aren't off on the LB train.  But they might be off taking one with their first pick at 11.  So guessing what they are thinking is they like some dudes in the 2nd perhaps and are not longer fixated on a first round LB.

 

Having said that recalling past drafts, Keim tends to be most accurate as the draft gets closer.  So I am curious to see if there is some other shift soon?  As Tony Pauline likes to say, teams have their big draft meetings right around now and that sometimes can shift their thinking. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

If we drafted Howell with Walker and Spiller still out there, I'd be so pissed off. I don't see it.

[Forever A Redskin]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Knowing Keim some.  He's almost never advocating "his" point.  He's just about always advocating what he thinks they are thinking based on his sources with the team.  He's not always right but often is on that front.  Among other things, he's the only reporter who pulled off Wentz being on their radar.  I used to think Standig was just a hair behind Keim as for being plugged in but I'd say not anymore, since Standig said he was surprised about the Wentz deal.

 

As I put on here before, Keim months back talked a lot about LB and Lloyd specifically was mentioned more than any other player.  But after they acquired Wentz, and let Landon Collins go there seems to be a shift in their thinking.  But also if you follow what Keim says (which again is what he's hearing they are thinking) they aren't off on the LB train.  But they might be off taking one with their first pick at 11.  So guessing what they are thinking is they like some dudes in the 2nd perhaps and are not longer fixated on a first round LB.

 

Having said that recalling past drafts, Keim tends to be most accurate as the draft gets closer.  So I am curious to see if there is some other shift soon?  As Tony Pauline likes to say, teams have their big draft meetings right around now and that sometimes can shift their thinking. 

 

I think the team has made the same realization a lot of us have. That with the depth of the draft the drop off from Lloyd to the 2nd round LBs isn't that huge.

 

I think their top-30 visits are really telling. The majority of their interviews are 2-5th round talents. That sounds like a trade back to me.

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

If we drafted Howell with Walker and Spiller still out there, I'd be so pissed off. I don't see it.

 

Agreed. I think the whole point of Wentz was to buy one more year building the rest of the roster. Cut bait if he doesn't work out, and trade up next year for their guy. Unless of course Wentz surprises everyone and figures it out finally. 

 

Another reason I think we trade back is to recoup the lost picks from Wentz. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

I think the team has made the same realization a lot of us have. That with the depth of the draft the drop off from Lloyd to the 2nd round LBs isn't that huge.

 

I think their top-30 visits are really telling. The majority of their interviews are 2-5th round talents. That sounds like a trade back to me.

 

Agreed. I think the whole point of Wentz was to buy one more year building the rest of the roster. Cut bait if he doesn't work out, and trade up next year for their guy. Unless of course Wentz surprises everyone and figures it out finally. 

 

Another reason I think we trade back is to recoup the lost picks from Wentz. 

I definitely think trading back is the goal if we can make it happen. Judging by our 30's and stuff coach says and FAs we've looked at we definitely want DBs and LBers.

 

We have a ton of options. WR, RB, DB and ILB seem to be the primary goals.

[Chump Bailey]

Thanks for posting Brugler's mock SIP. 

 

Desmond Ridder to the Steelers at #20 is something I see happening

 

No way in hell would I take Walker over any of the top 3 OT's

 

Jermaine Johnson is overrated IMO

 

George Pickens is underrated IMO

 

[KDawg]

@Going Commando No one all of a sudden decided our linebackers were great.

 

But: Holcomb did improve last year. Jamin was a rookie last year. Lloyd would be an upgrade to both, agreed. But the reason I see the value in Lloyd is his tremendous flex. Lloyd can be the MIKE in the 20% of snaps we're in the 4-3. Lloyd can be the hybrid/flex guy when we're in a 4-2. Lloyd can be an edge rusher, Lloyd can cover. But drafting Lloyd doesn't send Holcomb or Davis to the bench, in my opinion.

 

All three can be on the field at the same time in virtually any scenario. except obvious pass downs and Dime personnel where you might keep Lloyd as a 00 tech backer and bring in coverage guys in the slots

 

If we use a 00tech backer, it's Lloyd. If we use 10/30/20 tech backers it's Holcomb/Davis and Lloyd slides out to flex. 

 

Having said all that... This team needs to be able to win a track meet and score. Higher scoring O = D with ears pinned back. Best way to improve the D is to improve the O. If you are using weighted BPA for draft strategy, it's tough to outweigh a high end receiver. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by KDawg

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I think it’s safe to assume free agency is done until after the draft. There’s still serious talent out there. Whatever we do in the draft, I’d expect us to still add talent afterwards … especially if we don’t trade down for 11 and stick with only having 1-2-4-6-7-7 … 6-7-7 are bodies you hope make the roster. 1-2-4 are guys you’ll want as starters and depth. And we have 3-4 legit starter and depth needs so unless we trade back and end up with 1-2-2-2-4-6–7-7 … which probably allows us to fill most needs without a post draft FA signing

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Mrshadow008 said:

Welp im officially out on Hamilton just cant trust a player with this type of judgement 🤣

Well in fairness he was born in 2001 which means he was 2 when Jordan played his last game and wasn't even alive to hear Jackson.

[Going Commando]

9 hours ago, mistertim said:

@Going Commando

 

The Chiefs were considered smart for taking Humphrey because they got a very good Center prospect at the end of the 2nd round. If they'd have had a top 10-15 pick and used it on a Center they probably would have been laughed at.

 

There's not much reason to spend a 1st on a Center because you can find guys who end up really good in later rounds. Interior OL IIRC is one of the best bets if you're looking for really good players outside of the 1st round. And it's not like I'm some outlier on this...it seems NFL GMs and coaches pretty much agree based on how they draft.

 

You talking about Humphrey and Kelce is interesting because neither of them were 1st rounders, both of them were better prospects than Linderbaum is, and yet you want us to take Linderbaum with our borderline top 10 pick.

 

It seems like Linderbaum is another guy you've fallen head over heels for. It was the same with Willis. From the way you talked about him, Willis wasn't just a good QB prospect, he was some transcendent talent the likes of which has never graced this world before. Now you seem to be doing that with Linderbaum too.

 

You're just making **** up now.  First off, I talked endlessly about how I liked Willis, not loved him, and that either he or Pickett was merely the best option this draft class had to offer us.  Both takes are right by the way, they became the consensus top 2 QBs just like I said they would, and actually your take that Willis will fall into the second round is going to be totally wrong.  Second, in that post I specifically said I wasn't advocating taking Linderbaum at 11, although we'd be making a value selection if we did.  I said he'd be a huge value selection after trading down and a way better pick than reaching for any of these receivers.  He's a way better player and prospect than any of them are.

 

Third, Linderbaum is a far better prospect than Kelce and Humphrey were.  Where are you even getting that take from?  He is way easier to see coming than they were, and that's why he's still widely projected in the first round and they were never projected that high.  Nobody in the world so Jason Kelce coming, that's why he was a sixth round pick.  If you redrafted the 2011 class today, Kelce goes no later than 10th and that was one of the best classes ever.  And his stunningly successful NFL precedent is why people can see Linderbaum coming now.  Every single draftnik in the country knows he's one of the best players in the class, he's getting mocked later than his rational value because nobody wants to spend a high pick on a center-only prospect.  The NFL world undervalues the center position, and I've argued for why it's irrational that they do.  Linderbaum is the best center-only prospect to come along that I can ever remember, and that's not a controversial take.  Yes, he is a better prospect than Travis Frederick and Maurkice Pouncey were with their 10 percentile athleticism.

 

Finally, Creed Humphrey, by every measure and ranking I've seen, was a top five player from his rookie class.  If you like PFF scores, he had the 27th highest grade in the NFL last season regardless of position and experience.  He was the key to the turnaround of the Chiefs OL, and they absolutely could have picked him 11th overall and nobody would question it.

 

Sure, it's possible to find great centers in the late rounds just as it's possible to find great players at any position in the late rounds.  But you can't get Tyler Linderbaum in the late rounds.  The reason Linderbaum is going to be a high pick is because, barring unpredictable circumstances outside the kid's control, he's going to be a great player.  That surety that you're getting a great player is what you pay for.  That is the basis of draft stock value.  If I have a valuable pick, I'd rather spend it on a prospect I am totally confident will be a great player than one I'm not sure about.  And beyond that simple use of value, I would rather trade down and exploit a market inefficiency in the way the NFL values the position of a prospect to extract even more value from my draft.  That kind of exploitation of irrationalities common throughout the league is what the good team builders do.

 

I'm not worried about banging the table for this kid at all.  My confidence level that he'll end up being one of the best players from this class is high, and I am much more conservative and risk averse than the room here.  I think you guys need to see the big picture and realize this class is not that good and there are very few guys worth banging the table for this year.  Linderbaum is easily one of the few, and if I had a job in the front office for a team that ran the kind of offense that we run, then Linderbaum would be one of the only kids this year that I'd be comfortable staking my job on.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

I think I've said this before but...

 

I LOVE seeing Sam Howell to Washington. If this was before we traded for Wentz.

 

To use our 2,3,5 and next year's 2 or 3 on QBs who aren't surefire franchise guys is WAY too much draft capital. Our QB shopping for the year is done, in my opinion. If Wentz flames our season is shot anyways and I want a shot at next year's QB crop.

 

That would be a mistake. And I am big time on the Howell fan club. 

 

I've been thinking about the possibility of QB in the second the past few days, and I'm torn on this scenario because it activates contradicting philosophies for me.

 

On the one hand, I firmly believe in BPA drafting and I can very easily accept an argument that Howell at 47 is a BPA selection yielding big time value.  Maybe even like +15 to +20 value.

 

On the other hand, I also believe that if you have two QBs, you really have none, and that the crucial factor in the sustained success of a QB is the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage.

 

Drafting Howell into this situation undermines the chance of Rivera forming that marriage with Wentz, and probably also means we never give Howell a real shot too.  So yeah, it feels like a good way to make sure none of these QBs succeed.

 

For better or worse, it feels like we took our shot with Wentz and we need to see it through.  It's hard for me to accept because I am risk averse and Wentz is such a boom or bust player--deep flaws, spectacular playmaking ability.  I can see him being awesome here, but his flaws are really frustrating and they are probably the reason he lost the support of ownership in Indy.

 

But I can't shake the feeling that Howell could be an absolute home run of a second round pick.  You're not going to find QB prospects as good as him in the mid second of most draft classes.  He's got the right kind of quiet and humble personality that we look for in our QBs.  He's got the toughness and playmaking upside we want.  He'd come into a situation where he has a college teammate with built in familiarity, plus he'd get to sit for his entire rookie season if he needs to.  He could be a really good fit here.

 

It's a very risky pick.  Worst case scenario, everything falls apart and we've had another one player class and are still unsettled at QB after having invested all of our day two capital into the position for two years.  Good case scenario, Wentz flames out or gets hurt or whatever, but Howell is a successful hedge and saves everyone's job and we've finished our QB search in the Rivera era.  Best case scenario, Wentz is awesome and Howell rides the pine for a few years in a Phil Rivers type situation, or a Kevin Kolb type situation.

 

I don't know if I would take the risk if I were in charge, but I think Ron Rivera has a lot of job security here, particularly for a coach that's QB shopping entering his third season.  He can probably tolerate the risk.  I think we can also mitigate the risk of picking a 2nd round QB by trading down from 11.  If you give me two more top 50 picks, I can still get a great draft class in the first two days even if I don't get any value from Howell.

[Warhead36]

We aren't taking a QB in the 2nd round so its a moot point. Rivera is married to Wentz now.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I would love the fit too if they hadn't traded Matt Ryan.  But the Falcons pushed the rebuild button after Tom Brady un-retired.  They need to take Willis or Pickett at 8.  They're going to have to take their lumps this year and get their cap in order for the '23 season.

 

I'm hoping they take a WR instead though.  IMO Willis sitting there at 11 is our best shot at getting a team to trade up with us.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I've been thinking about the possibility of QB in the second the past few days, and I'm torn on this scenario because it activates contradicting philosophies for me.

 

On the one hand, I firmly believe in BPA drafting and I can very easily accept an argument that Howell at 47 is a BPA selection yielding big time value.  Maybe even like +15 to +20 value.

 

On the other hand, I also believe that if you have two QBs, you really have none, and that the crucial factor in the sustained success of a QB is the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage.

 

Drafting Howell into this situation undermines the chance of Rivera forming that marriage with Wentz, and probably also means we never give Howell a real shot too.  So yeah, it feels like a good way to make sure none of these QBs succeed.

 

For better or worse, it feels like we took our shot with Wentz and we need to see it through.  It's hard for me to accept because I am risk averse and Wentz is such a boom or bust player--deep flaws, spectacular playmaking ability.  I can see him being awesome here, but his flaws are really frustrating and they are probably the reason he lost the support of ownership in Indy.

 

But I can't shake the feeling that Howell could be an absolute home run of a second round pick.  You're not going to find QB prospects as good as him in the mid second of most draft classes.  He's got the right kind of quiet and humble personality that we look for in our QBs.  He's got the toughness and playmaking upside we want.  He'd come into a situation where he has a college teammate with built in familiarity, plus he'd get to sit for his entire rookie season if he needs to.  He could be a really good fit here.

 

It's a very risky pick.  Worst case scenario, everything falls apart and we've had another one player class and are still unsettled at QB after having invested all of our day two capital into the position for two years.  Good case scenario, Wentz flames out or gets hurt or whatever, but Howell is a successful hedge and saves everyone's job and we've finished our QB search in the Rivera era.  Best case scenario, Wentz is awesome and Howell rides the pine for a few years in a Phil Rivers type situation, or a Kevin Kolb type situation.

 

I don't know if I would take the risk if I were in charge, but I think Ron Rivera has a lot of job security here, particularly for a coach that's QB shopping entering his third season.  He can probably tolerate the risk.  I think we can also mitigate the risk of picking a 2nd round QB by trading down from 11.  If you give me two more top 50 picks, I can still get a great draft class in the first two days even if I don't get any value from Howell.

 

Not popular but I'd see what I could get for Payne/Sweat.

 

Not sure I'd pull the trigger after losing Matt I and Settle, though, on anything with Payne. But are we really going to pay him? Tons of resources tied up on the defense moving forward.

 

I don't love the idea of trading back, either. I don't want to pass on talent for maybe talent. A bird in hand is worth more than one getting shot over a swamp. 

 

But I think we need to acquire picks somehow and the only way I know how are those two guys. 

 

Whatever way, if we wound up with two second rounders... I'd still pass on Howell.

 

Again, this is coming from the guy who wanted him more than 99.5% of this forum. I STILL think he winds up as the best QB in this class. But we went with Wentz. We gave up a 3/5/2 (or 3) for him. I just can't see a scenario where it's a good play to take Howell. The second we got Wentz I think that ship sailed, which was slightly dismaying but I understood. 

 

I want to be in the mix for a franchise QB next year if we are bad. I also want the ability to move up if necessary for a QB next year. Not saying Wentz is going to flame... but I like to forward think these things.

 

Taking Howell and having Wentz really kind of stops you from going QB1 next year because... now that's even more resources tied up. You could try to move Wentz... or Howell... but teams know you HAVE to move them and the return isn't going to be worth a whole lot. 

[Warhead36]

Falcons could literally draft any position except TE and it'd fill a need. I think they roll with Mariotta for a year and then address QB next year in a more loaded class. They're basically a lock for a top 5 pick in 2023 at this point.