2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[The Consigliere]

20 hours ago, KDawg said:

Corral playing was the right move. Still respect him for it.

No it wasn’t. You can do the latter though and I understand why.

[KDawg]

Just now, The Consigliere said:

No it wasn’t. You can do the latter though and I understand why.

Yes it was. See? We can both say things as fact when its opinion based. Fun.

[The Consigliere]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I guess will see

 

 

 

That take is ludicrous. If he can’t be 100% for the combine and pro day it will only hurt him. People casually assuring us that risking your entire future as a pro for the bowl season is just so rich. Let me point to Jake Butt, Bryce Love, that LB the cowboys took a doubtless others who saw their futures flushed down the toilet for last career game appearances. I hope Corral is fine but nothing is guaranteed as he found out last night. Bad medicals on him and he drops rounds, not slots.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sounds like they're gonna take a major run at Wagner. Be nice to have a LBer like that again.

[The Consigliere]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Yes it was. See? We can both say things as fact when its opinion based. Fun.

No, he risked serious injury in a game that wouldn’t impact his stock as much as his combine+pro day would and then he got hurt. You’re arguing sentiment, I’m arguing risk management and his career. He gambled w/his career and got lucky he didn’t suffer an even worse injury. You can support the cause of ole miss or the character of playing these games as he and howell did and scouts do credit them for this but that credit doesn’t outweigh how much they’re punished on draft day if they get hurt. 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

No, he risked serious injury in a game that wouldn’t impact his stock as much as his combine+pro day would and then he got hurt. You’re arguing sentiment, I’m arguing risk management and his career. He gambled w/his career and got lucky he didn’t suffer an even worse injury. You can support the cause of ole miss or the character of playing these games as he and howell did and scouts do credit them for this but that credit doesn’t outweigh how much they’re punished on draft day if they get hurt. 

 

I'm not arguing anything with you. I think he did the right thing. You are more greed based in decisions.

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sounds like they're gonna take a major run at Wagner. Be nice to have a LBer like that again.

If they did that it would allow them to at QB with the 1st no problem if they desire. could also go hard at one of those FA FS's.

That would leave the rest of the draft and FA $ to attack the other spots

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

It’s a shame we pretty much have to use our 1st on a qb, because a stud FS or LB would be great for this team.

You don’t waste first round picks on LB’s unless they’re edge rushers. It’s poor use of draft capital and salary cap room efficiency. Safety is a bit more complicated and worthwhile if the player is a strong asset in pass defense/coverage.

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You don’t waste first round picks on LB’s unless they’re edge rushers. It’s poor use of draft capital and salary cap room efficiency. Safety is a bit more complicated and worthwhile if the player is a strong asset in pass defense/coverage.

You need to take it down a notch, champ. 

[The Consigliere]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'm not arguing anything with you. I think he did the right thing. You are more greed based in decisions.

Greed. Whose. Ole Miss me thinks. It’s the kids career. The NFL doesn’t suddenly gift Jake Butt. 4 year contract w$20 mill guaranteed if he tears his ACL in his final Bowl game. Nope, he loses that shot. Jaylon Smith tears his acl in his last game for Norte dame and goes from top 5 pick to day 2 after thought Bryce Love goes from most explosive back in college to out of the nfl after 2 seasons and no starts following his final Stanford game catastrophe.  There’s a litany of careers lost by players who risked this and lost the gamble and their career in the process. My sympathy and prerogative is for these players and their careers, it has zilch to do w/greed unless we’re talking the uni’s and the ncaa that raked in mountains of cash while paying the players nothing and shifting all the risk to them while enculcating in them a sense that somehow, prioritizing their career, for once, over that of others is somehow wrong. Just strikes me as absurd, I get the high minded ideals of being there for your teammates but by that point it’s time a player look after #1 in a sport so violent and w/careers already so short.

Edited January 2, 2022 by The Consigliere

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

Greed. Whose. Ole Miss me thinks. It’s the kids career. The NFL doesn’t suddenly gift Jake Butt. 4 year contract w$20 mill guaranteed if he tears his ACL in his final Bowl game. Nope, he loses that shot. Jaylon Smith tears his acl in his last game for Norte dame and goes from top 5 pick to day 2 after thought Bryce Love goes from most explosive back in college to out of the nfl after 2 seasons and no starts following his final Stanford game catastrophe.  There’s a litany of careers lost by players who risked this and lost the gamble and their career in the process. My sympathy and prerogative is for these players and their careers, it has zilch to do w/greed unless we’re talking the uni’s and the ncaa that raked in mountains of cash while paying the players nothing and shifting all the risk to them while enculcating in them a sense that somehow, prioritizing their career, for once, over that of others is somehow wrong. Just strikes me as absurd, I get the high minded ideals of being there for your teammates but by that point it’s time a player look after #1 in a sport so violent and w/careers already so short.

 

Again, here you are arguing in terms of money. Which tells me how you think. He played for his TEAMMATES. Not the university. Not money. His team. The people he went to work with every day and built relationships with.

 

Youd don't think he made the right call? Cool.

 

I do. Let's not pretend like your OPINION is a fact. You do that alot.

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

You need to take it down a notch, champ. 

No, I’m good.  Feel free to disagree, or not, but people have done the work on slaray cap efficiency and hit rate w/picks and contract value returns and all of that regarding positions in round 1. Best targets in terms of value returned are positions like QB, Edge, LT, RT, CB and oddly, WR ( would have never guessed that). Worst values tend to be RB, ILB, box safeties, centers,  Fb’s back in the day etc. interior OL gets more valuable as you slide deeper into round 1. Can’t remember how DT’s did in the studies but I think they were reasonable returns as well.

 

Basically round 1 is best utilized on the lines, QB, corners and WR’s though I think WR’s hit plenty on day 2 to justify crossing them off (they also have a horrific hit rate after round 4). OL’s at least until recently (not sure if the data still holds, assume it does) are consistently great value to target through about slot 130ish in terms of success rate.

 

[The Consigliere]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Again, here you are arguing in terms of money. Which tells me how you think. He played for his TEAMMATES. Not the university. Not money. His team. The people he went to work with every day and built relationships with.

 

Youd don't think he made the right call? Cool.

 

I do. Let's not pretend like your OPINION is a fact. You do that alot.

I know what he did and why he did it and I wish players had people to protect them from these instincts. I don’t disagree w/your premise. I’m not blind to this character trait being a part of the metal make up you want in a player and especially in a QB but sometimes good traits can be used to hurt you and your own interests. You keep thinking this is about money as if there isn’t two sides to the issue here. Loves career is over, same w/Butt’s, jaylon Smith’s was harmed irreparably, Heck Marcus Lattimore, an October injury to be sure, showed what can happen. Gurley before Gurley but that injury left his entire career in the dustbin, bad luck, it happens, but when you can actually protect yourself, you should, Chase took a lot of stick for protecting himself last year and now. He’s helping guide Cincy to their first division title in decades. 
 

I get we’ll never agree on this, but it needs to be understood that the it’s about money digs on my take are misdirected. These players have a career to prioritize just like their fellow university students, and that prioritization is 1000% justifiable especially considering the consequences when things go wrong when they and their potential career have already long been forgotten and moved on from by their alma mater.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Feel free to rip me or drag my old moronic takes all you want. I’m fine w/it. It’s a message board to argue one’s pov, if you’re wrong you should own it, nobody is losing employment over a random take on a message board.

 

I am not ripping you.  But you seem to take it that way.  Thus I go out of my way to couch things to you as we are all wrong about stuff, because heck that's true, we all are.   If you or me or anyone here is nailing everything, we are wasting our time on the thread.  We should be working in a FO.  Parcells once said the best GMs get it right 50% of the time.  if we supposedly are better than that then we are wasting our talents here. 

 

It's hard for me to forget some of your takes because you seem to be the most definitive person here about your takes and are willing to call people as being wrong with absolute conviction when you disagree.  Part of the reason why I'll repeat a thing that i recall you arguing with me about in the past with conviction and ended up wrong is simply if it applies to a current definitive take of yours.   And look I am not even saying you are wrong.  Just saying maybe its possible you are wrong?  I got some strong opinions about some things but rarely I feel that way with total conviction.  There is a crap shoot element to all of this.  It's mostly opinion from all of us. 

 

So yeah I don't give a rats behind about how much you touted to trade for Rosen because you got it wrong.  For example, on the FA thread I touted Richardson as a FA want and he sucked.  So I try to learn from it.  I've nailed some good stuff and looked like a moron on other things.  My point about Rosen and Darnold centered on a point which is its another example of why I am not hung up on what the draft media thinks of a draft class.  That's why to me its relevant when you harp on that point. 

 

If you are taking a QB in 2017, media draft geeks would say pass if you could considering Rosen and Darnold are the jewels so wait for them in 2018.  And then Mayfield ended up a sexy pick, too in theory.    They ended up wrong.  They've been wrong about a heck of a lot when it comes to QBs. 

 

I think the other thing you don't consider enough is even if lets say Young and Stroud just kill it, what are the odds we are in position to draft them?  You talk in terms of being a student of the history of this stuff, then you should know that teams rarely trade out of spots to give up the theoritical sure things QBs.  

 

The shot to trade up is typically the QBs that don't seem slam dunk.   the pond we likely shop in next year if we passed on the spot this year would be the 4th or 5th top QBs in that draft in theory.  Who are those guys?  Tough to guess.  Maybe Jefferson, Rattler?

 

 

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

As for the ‘22 class, my main issue is the prospects are uniformallyweaker than the ‘20, ‘21 and ‘23 classes. Just like five years ago we’ve settled on prioritizing QB in the wrong offseason. Maybe we get lucky but I’m skeptical. 

 

It might be.  But what is your opinion based on?  If its mock draft consensus takes or analytics they've struggled with these calls as much as NFL teams, maybe even more.  

 

I am not arguing that the 2022 class is as good as 2023.  In theory sure 2023 looks better right now.  But, i am not looking at the knock out models and thinking heck yeah in 2023 that's who we will be dating if we just wait.  i am thinking we are likely dating the cute girl who lives next door whether its in 2023 or 2022 -- not the models.  So how do I compare them?     Corral versus Rattler.  Jefferson versus Pickett.  Etc.  Otherwise i think we are living in fantasy land if we think we are drafting in the top 2.   We might even be in better position to get that player in this draft versus next year considering I am not so sure we will be drafting top 10 next year.

 

I'd wager that no one puts up more analyltics on this thread than me.  I charted every position in the last draft and including every analytical grade I can find on a spread sheet and put it here.  i love that stuff.  But IMO its not definitive.   There is a reason why NFL teams have scouting teams who go watch these players in person and interview everybody they can find about players.  

 

The thing is especially for QBs, its tough to live and die with stats.  Traits matter.  Context matter.  Intangibles matter.    PFF had Will Grier as the #3 Qb in the 2019 draft.  It's not the only weird ranking they've had at that spot.   Numbers wise he was very exciting.  So was Colt McCoy and a slew of others over the years.  No one has invented the wheel on evaluating college QBs.   if they did whether it was Kiper, McShay, PFF, Warren Sharp, they'd be billionaries.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-top-10-quarterbacks-for-2019-nfl-draft

 

The advanced numbers suggest Will Grier may be the steal of the 2019 NFL Draft

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Ah Will Grier, I think like 1-2 people here liked him, but the rest thought he wasn't an NFL caliber thrower.  Every now and then general ES consensus nails a player well.

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Ah Will Grier, I think like 1-2 people here liked him, but the rest thought he wasn't an NFL caliber thrower.  Every now and then general ES consensus nails a player well.

@volsmetfreaking hated something awful on Grier...he convinced most of us who thought he might have had a shot, that he did not lol

[Skinsinparadise]

Messing with the math a little, if we beat the Giants which I think we will, I think we end up with pick #11.

[Skinsinparadise]

49 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

@volsmetfreaking hated something awful on Grier...he convinced most of us who thought he might have had a shot, that he did not lol

 

He hated Grier and Haskins.  He dug Drew Lock and Rosen though.    Case in point we all get some right, and get some wrong.   The key for me is I love reading detailed takes whether i agree with them all or not.  It's interesting for me and also a fun way to kill time in the off season.  And volsmet did them as well as anyone here IMO. 

 

 I got to give @volsmet major props as I've mentioned before he made me see Qbs in a totally different way than I ever looked at them before. 

 

Initially, I bought to some degree into the Riddick, etc hype on Haskins early in the draft process before really watching Haskins closely and volsmet kept pestering me on this thread to take a closer look at Haskins and told me what to look for.  I did.  I finally watched 5 games back to back one morning of Haskins.  And my opinion did a 180 on him.  But more importantly for me, it changed my approach from that point on when watching that spot.  And I got to thank him for it.  Too bad he's not here anymore. 😢

[Skinsinparadise]

I'd have a meltdown if this is what happens.  I don't mind Ridder as a 2nd rounder flier.  Top 10 pick, no way. 

 

 

3.

 

Texans

Kenny Pickett

QB, Pittsburgh

The Texans have managed to navigate this season and squeeze out a few wins. The future of the Texans is still unclear due to Deshaun Watson's legal issues and trade demands. To the benefit of the Texans, Kenny Pickett has emerged as a franchise quarterback. Pickett is an accurate quarterback that can make all the throws and has shown great decision-making skills within the Pitt offense. Pickett has solidified himself as the No. 1 quarterback in this draft but now it's time to start considering him as a top-five pick.

6.

Panthers

Matt Corral

QB, Ole Miss

The Panthers have exhausted the veteran quarterback market over the past couple of years, even trying to recapture the magic with Cam Newton. None of these options have proven to be good options and it's time the panthers draft a quarterback. With this pick, the Panthers select Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. Corral is a mobile QB that can win with his arm and also be a threat to run with the football. Corral has experience playing in Lane Kiffin's offense that has the same principles that have started to infiltrate the NFL. As long as Corral is in the right system, he can be a good NFL QB and could become a franchise player for the Panthers.

 

9.

 

Washington

Desmond Ridder

QB, Cincinnati

Taylor Heinicke has had a season that showed moments of him being a starter and others where he looked like a backup quarterback. As constructed, Washington has a roster that has led them to be a fringe-level playoff team. But if they want to take be considered true NFC contenders, they need stable play from the quarterback position. Desmond Ridder is a proven leader that now in back-to-back years has more than held his own when his team was outmatched against opponents such as Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama. A quarterback that has the leadership traits like Ridder combined with his consistent level of play should serve as a benefit for Washington and help them take the next step.

[Riggo#44]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd have a meltdown if this is what happens.  I don't mind Ridder as a 2nd rounder flier.  Top 10 pick, no way. 

I scratched my head at that one too--granted it's almost 4 mos before the draft--but this was just odd. Especially with Willis or Howell not in the 1st round

[DWinzit]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He hated Grier and Haskins.  He dug Drew Lock and Rosen though.    Case in point we all get some right, and get some wrong.   The key for me is I love reading detailed takes whether i agree with them all or not.  It's interesting for me and also a fun way to kill time in the off season.  And volsmet did them as well as anyone here IMO. 

 

 I got to give @volsmet major props as I've mentioned before he made me see Qbs in a totally different way than I ever looked at them before. 

 

Initially, I bought to some degree into the Riddick, etc hype on Haskins early in the draft process before really watching Haskins closely and volsmet kept pestering me on this thread to take a closer look at Haskins and told me what to look for.  I did.  I finally watched 5 games back to back one morning of Haskins.  And my opinion did a 180 on him.  But more importantly for me, it changed my approach from that point on when watching that spot.  And I got to thank him for it.  Too bad he's not here anymore. 😢

I know a lot of people didn't like his style but he was a favorite poster of mine. He did really push Rosen almost as much as he blew up Grier. I do recall him hammering home on Haskins being NG. I really liked some of the late rounders he had so much intell and insight on.

3 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

I scratched my head at that one too--granted it's almost 4 mos before the draft--but this was just odd. Especially with Willis or Howell not in the 1st round

Agreed, no way Ridder goes top ten. After his last performance he won't get drafted in the top 20. If WFT takes a QB in that scenario, they would need to look seriously at Howell or Willis

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I know a lot of people didn't like his style but he was a favorite poster of mine. He did really push Rosen almost as much as he blew up Grier. I do recall him hammering home on Haskins being NG. I really liked some of the late rounders he had so much intell and insight on.

 

Yeah I was more than cool with volsmet.   Fun reading his takes.    What I loved about the Haskins stuff was he wouldn't leave me alone on it, he pestered me until I dove deeper on Haskins' game.   And I didn't really finally get to it until a few or so weeks before the draft.  But the exchanges i had with him on Haskins ironically changed how i've looked at Qbs ever since.  So I owe him one.   But yeah he had a lot of good takes IMO. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

I think Howell is one of the QBs they are evaluating seriously. It was reported they sent scouts to the Pitt-UNC game and it was reported they sent a scout to at least another UNC game this season. 

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Messing with the math a little, if we beat the Giants which I think we will, I think we end up with pick #11.

 

I doubt it but I really hope RIvera sees the big picture and uses this as an "evaluation" game. Let Allen play for a bit and let Shurmur play a bit. Sit all starters you can except for Terry who I hope they try to forcefeed to a 1000 yard season

[Koolblue13]

That mock is whacked. I doubt most of those things happen. I doubt Lloyd is the 3rd LBer taken and certainly not that far back. I like Brisker a lot, but not in the first. 

 

If any of those 3 LBers get to the Cowboys, they'll take one since they're losing Vander Esch. Hill won't go that early and I think Cine is 2nd or 3rd safety off the board, probably early second.

 

Far too many QB teams to see only those 3 go round one.

 

And we'd take Howell who I think might be the target after Corral.