BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[China]

University of Michigan immunologist says pandemic will end in 2022

 

Michigan seeing highest daily COVID case counts since pandemic began

 

With the coronavirus spreading at an unseen rate in Michigan and beyond, it can be hard to imagine any end in sight.

 

But University of Michigan immunologist and professor Dr. Jim Baker says he thinks the pandemic will come to an end in 2022.

 

Dr. Baker joins us on Flashpoint this week to discuss the current state of the pandemic and its future.

 

“When we talk about pandemic, this huge wave of infection that goes around the world, we usually see a lot of different phases,” Dr. Baker explained to Devin Scillian on Sunday’s Flashpoint program. “The more people are immune to the virus, the more people have a vaccine, the less likely they’re going to have a serious effect from this.”

 

Dr. Baker has been keeping a pandemic blog and recently wrote about the pandemic ending this year.

 

“We have been focused on number of infections with COVID-19 because of the very sensitive and accurate diagnostic tests (PCR) we have developed. In contrast, as we look at the end of the pandemic, we now need to focus less on infections and more on deaths. That is truly the important marker of a pandemic’s impact and the only comparable measure to the 1918 flu epidemic where there were no diagnostic tests,” Baker wrote.

 

“In the 1917 flu pandemic, after the initial burst of infections and deaths, two waves of deaths followed, each one less impactful. This is how pandemics end; two “echo” waves each being less and less significant. It is because in each wave the most susceptible individuals have been killed off as the rest of the population develops immunity. A similar pattern was seen in the 2011 Influenza A pandemic and it has now emerged with COVID-19. This pattern shows the COVID-19 pandemic is burning out.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Not buying it.  All we need is for another strain to develop which seems likely.

[China]

Stay home or work sick? Omicron-driven COVID-19 surge poses a conundrum

 

As the raging omicron variant of COVID-19 infects workers across the nation, millions of those whose jobs don’t provide paid sick days are having to choose between their health and their paycheck.

 

While many companies instituted more robust sick leave policies at the beginning of the pandemic, some of those have since been scaled back with the rollout of the vaccines, even though omicron has managed to evade the shots. Meanwhile, the current labor shortage is adding to the pressure of workers having to decide whether to show up to their job sick if they can’t afford to stay home.

 

“It’s a vicious cycle,” said Daniel Schneider, professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. “As staffing gets depleted because people are out sick, that means that those that are on the job have more to do and are even more reluctant to call in sick when they in turn get sick.”

 

Low-income hourly workers are especially vulnerable. Nearly 80% of all private sector workers get at least one paid sick day, according to a national compensation survey of employee benefits conducted in March by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But only 33% of workers whose wages are at the bottom 10% get paid sick leave, compared with 95% in the top 10%.

 

A survey this past fall of roughly 6,600 hourly low-wage workers conducted by Harvard’s Shift Project, which focuses on inequality, found that 65% of those workers who reported being sick in the last month said they went to work anyway. That’s lower than the 85% who showed up to work sick before the pandemic, but much higher than it should be in the middle of a public health crisis. Schneider says it could get worse because of omicron and the labor shortage.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[tshile]

58 minutes ago, China said:

Not buying it.  All we need is for another strain to develop which seems likely.

Why does that change what he said? We already saw two major strains develop, yet the numbers are tracking along with what he said. 
 

and it’s pretty consistent with what my wife is seeing. 
 

and the numbers would be even better if more people were vaccinated. 
 

This…. Is how it ends. Ideally we would have done a better job before vaccines were available to limit deaths, then everyone would have gotten vaccinated and it’d tail off. 
 

still going that route, just taking longer with more deaths. Which is completely expected, given how we’ve decided to handle getting vaccinated. 

[China]

CDC warns off tourists from popular Caribbean island getaway

 

In its first update of travel advisories for 2022, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has added just one new destination -- a popular Caribbean winter getaway -- to its highest-risk category.

The CDC advises travelers to avoid Aruba, a Dutch island just off the coast of South America, as it now resides at Level 4 with a "very high level" of Covid-19 risk.

The CDC places a destination at Level 4 when more than 500 cases per 100,000 residents are registered in the past 28 days.

This is a slowdown from the pace of additions in the past two weeks. One week ago, Sweden and two other European nations were added to Level 4. And two weeks ago, Spain and seven other destinations around the world were placed at Level 4.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

15 minutes ago, tshile said:

Why does that change what he said? We already saw two major strains develop, yet the numbers are tracking along with what he said. 
 

and it’s pretty consistent with what my wife is seeing. 
 

and the numbers would be even better if more people were vaccinated. 
 

This…. Is how it ends. Ideally we would have done a better job before vaccines were available to limit deaths, then everyone would have gotten vaccinated and it’d tail off. 
 

still going that route, just taking longer with more deaths. Which is completely expected, given how we’ve decided to handle getting vaccinated. 

 

If a new strain develops that is more deadly then the number of deaths will stop decreasing and increase, which is contrary to what he is predicting.  Is is possible what he is predicting will happen?  Yes.  But even if it does, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer than just 2022 to fade into non-pandemic levels.  BTW, I"m not sure what levels of death are considered low enough for it no longer to be considered a pandemic.  

 

Also, he notes that he is focusing on deaths, not infections, and right now we're seeing a huge surge in infections.  Omicron seems to be less deadly so we may not see as large a corresponding surge in deaths, but that doesn't mean we won't with the next variant.

 

Edit:

He also states that after the initial round of infections and deaths there are two further waves of deaths.  Maybe I'm reading the graphs differently, but I'm seeing at least 3 waves of deaths (so far) after the initial round of infections and deaths.  

Edited January 10, 2022 by China

[tshile]

1 hour ago, China said:

does, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer than just 2022

Oh. Yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised if the timing is off by quite a bit, or the number of waves. Sorry, I misunderstood your comment. 
 

i guess I was focusing specifically on the general idea of what the pattern from start to end is going to look like. Because what he outlined is basically my understanding of what is most likely to happen, even if his timing is off. 
 

we will continue to see waves where deaths decrease. Part of that is due to immunity. Part is also due to the most vulnerable being the ones that die, and over time the people that make up “the most vulnerable” shrink - or, the group becomes less vulnerable over time because, well, people die. Part of it would also be do to increased information; as people protect themselves better they lower the viral load at exposure and lessen the severity (unless that’s changed, idk if it has)

 

and his point is that focusing on infections is old hat. It was important last year and the year before. But at this point infection numbers are driving panic and hysterics because people recall how it felt in 2020. But it’s not 2020. Required staying in the hospital and deaths have plummeted as a percentage of infected people. Hospitals here are flooded - not with severely ill covid people but people with covid going to the hospital and being another number in the paperwork. And it takes a while to get someone checked in, tested, evaluated, and released. It just does. 
 

I think, without any direct knowledge or expertise, the idea that it’s time to move past looking at infection numbers 24/7 makes sense in terms of being a valid idea. 

[tshile]

And maybe I’m just completely biased here but I recall the first and even second wave, from a healthcare perspective, being about how to secure ventilators. How to find trained staff (places were waving certain requirements…) How to alter entire hvac systems to create negative pressure rooms out of the rest of the hospital. Panic over which methods yielded what results. Does rotating the patient x times a day help? Is there an advantage to doing it x+y times a day? Getting masks, gowns, gloves… just ongoing and never ending supply issues. 
 

 

right now the issues I’m seeing are:

- informing the public a bit better on when it’s appropriate to go to the hospital and when it’s not

- dealing with staff shortages because staff is getting sick 

- just the sheer number of people to process, most of which didn’t need to go to the hospital in the first place

- and generate budget issues cause this is all new for everyone 

 

we’re in a different spot. And it’s time to discuss it in a way that is more reflective of the current reality, and the most likely future, and get beyond how we were talking about it 10-20 months ago. 

1 hour ago, China said:

CDC warns off tourists from popular Caribbean island getaway

 

In its first update of travel advisories for 2022, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has added just one new destination -- a popular Caribbean winter getaway -- to its highest-risk category

Hah wife is gonna be pissed. Wanted to go there. Our vegas, outerbanks, and Costa Rica trips all got strapped because of covid 😂 we’ve had a rough time trying to get away. 
 

Only successful trips have been to go skiing out in wva/md/pa

 

 

[steve09ru]

So my brothers antibody therapy with uva got cancelled as they said it’s ineffective against omicron variant.  

[China]

New COVID variant identified in France — but experts say we shouldn’t fear it

 

Scientists have identified a previously unknown mutant strain in a fully vaccinated person who tested positive after returning from a short three-day trip to Cameroon.

 

Academics based at the IHU Mediterranee Infection in Marseille, France, discovered the new variant on December 10. So far, the variant doesn’t appear to be spreading rapidly and the World Health Organization has not yet labeled it a variant of concern. Nevertheless, researchers are still describing and keeping an eye on it.

 

The discovery of the B.1.640.2 mutation, dubbed IHU, was announced in the preprint server medRxiv, in a paper still awaiting peer review. Results show that IHU’s spike protein, the part of the virus responsible for invading host cells, carries the E484K mutation, which increases vaccine resistance. The genomic sequencing also revealed the N501Y mutation — first seen in the Alpha variant — that experts believe can make COVID-19 more transmissible.  

 

In the paper, the clinicians highlight that it’s important to keep our guard and expect more surprises from the virus: “These observations show once again the unpredictability of the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and their introduction from abroad,” they write. For comparison Omicron (B.1.1.529) carries around 50 mutations and appears to be better at infecting people who already have a level of immunity. Thankfully, a growing body of research proves it is also less likely to trigger severe symptoms.

 

Experts insist that IHU, which predates Omicron but has yet to cause widespread harm, should not cause concern – predicting that it may fade into the background. In an interview with the Daily Mail, Dr. Thomas Pea****, a virologist at Imperial College London, said the mutation had “a decent chance to cause trouble but never really materialized. So it is definitely not one worth worrying about too much at the moment.”

 

The strain was first uploaded to a variant tracking database on November 4, more than two weeks before Omicron was sequenced. For comparison, French authorities are now reporting over 300,000 new cases a day thought to be mostly Omicron, with data suggesting that the researchers have identified only 12 cases of IHU over the same period. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

[LD0506]

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/outbreak-reported-rhode-island-hospital-covid-positive-asymptomatic-st-rcna11376?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma&s=09&fbclid=IwAR13vnb0QO3U81Ymj2w9HZPwuMuGrO01TIvnQaSmCSiqKDlRsC9disZ03So

[Sticksboi05]

Rapid at home tests still work with Omicron - the question is at what viral load does Omicron becomes contagious, which will require more research to give more precise estimates. Because vaccination is causing people to get symptoms much earlier in their disease progression, if you have COVID-like symptoms best to assume you are positive for the purposes of interacting with others, and wait a few days to confirm once replication in your nose is high.

 

 

[tshile]

22 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/outbreak-reported-rhode-island-hospital-covid-positive-asymptomatic-st-rcna11376?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma&s=09&fbclid=IwAR13vnb0QO3U81Ymj2w9HZPwuMuGrO01TIvnQaSmCSiqKDlRsC9disZ03So

Sent to wife. Response?

”that’s what the cdc recommends”

 

i guess the potential negatives of being overwhelmingly short staffed outweigh the covid outbreak threat 

 

Not that it matters. The hospital will be drug through the mud. I’m sure someone will sue over it or something. 
 

but yeah. When you, as a society, refuse to do what is necessary to control a pandemic, these are the types of decisions that get made and scenarios that play out. 

[LD0506]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

Sent to wife. Response?

”that’s what the cdc recommends”

 

i guess the potential negatives of being overwhelmingly short staffed outweigh the covid outbreak threat 

 

Not that it matters. The hospital will be drug through the mud. I’m sure someone will sue over it or something. 
 

but yeah. When you, as a society, refuse to do what is necessary to control a pandemic, these are the types of decisions that get made and scenarios that play out. 

 

The truth is this is not a simple black or white situation, but that's where you end up when the highest priority is the bottom line. Thank St Ronnie the Oblivious for giving us for-profit hospitals. That honestly was the end of health care in this country.

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

The truth is this is not a simple black or white situation, but that's where you end up when the highest priority is the bottom line. Thank St Ronnie the Oblivious for giving us for-profit hospitals. That honestly was the end of health care in this country.

It’s going on with non-profits too. 
 

you cannot function without the people. It goes beyond covid. Surgeries, critical care, L&D. 
 

the hospital has to function. And it was determined that asymptomatic, positive staff were needed because without them the situation was worse. 
 

it’s going on everywhere. This one’s getting called out. But I promise you it’s going on everywhere. And it’s not about profits. 
 

i don’t think the people making these decisions have money as their bottom line. It sounds to me like their bottom line is patient safety. 

Don’t get me wrong. I can sit around and complain about how the bean counters have ruined a lot of things with healthcare. And other aspects of society too. 
 

but there’s nothing profitable about covid. It’s a huge money suck on the healthcare industry. No one “wants” to do it this way. Its just the only option. 
 

 

[tshile]

Wait wait wait

 

😂😂😂😂

 

Quote

A spokesperson said the outbreak is not connected to the workers.

which is aligns with everything to date - hospitals aren’t seeing transmission from/to staff in the hospital setting because they’re wearing masks and practicing the basic precautions. 
 

so that whole article is a bunch of bull ****. 
 

NBC runs with that headline and tweet and the ****ing subheading says it’s not even connected to the staff members 😂 

 

our media is such a ****ing joke. What a clown article. NBC should be embarrassed. 

[Ball Security]

33 minutes ago, tshile said:

Wait wait wait

 

😂😂😂😂

 

which is aligns with everything to date - hospitals aren’t seeing transmission from/to staff in the hospital setting because they’re wearing masks and practicing the basic precautions. 
 

so that whole article is a bunch of bull ****. 
 

NBC runs with that headline and tweet and the ****ing subheading says it’s not even connected to the staff members 😂 

 

our media is such a ****ing joke. What a clown article. NBC should be embarrassed. 

Before reading the article, I thought that it’s a decent chance that the infected staff had nothing to do with the spread.  When I click on it, it says as much in the headline.

 

Outbreak reported at Rhode Island hospital after Covid-positive, asymptomatic staff asked to work

Eleanor Slater Hospital had two staff members come into work on Saturday and three Monday. A spokesperson said the outbreak is not connected to the workers.

 

But my question is did this spread happen by one new positive patient and infecting the rest?  How does that happen in a hospital? Or did these 28 people show up at the hospital infected?  If so, that’s not an outbreak.

 

Pretty irresponsible article all around.

[tshile]

1 minute ago, Ball Security said:

But my question is did this spread happen by one new positive patient and infecting the rest?  How does that happen in a hospital? Or did these 28 people show up at the hospital infected?  If so, that’s not an outbreak.

It’s hard to tell because the article is garbage. 
 

but based on what is generally happening - given that so far it’s believed that in-hospital transmission involving staff is low, and ED’s are being flooded, and hospitalizations are up, and icu’s are full so covid patients are boarding in the ED - or where ever they are finding room…it seems relatively reasonable to believe they’re getting it by going to the hospital. 
 

i wouldn’t go to a hospital unless you need to when the hospital is surging with covid patients. It’s a bad idea. When they’re not surging you should have an expectation that you can go to a hospital and not get covid. But during a surge… I think that expectation goes out the window. 

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

our media is such a ****ing joke. What a clown article. NBC should be embarrassed. 

 

Its predatory behavior, honestly. 

[The Evil Genius]

 

13 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Its predatory behavior, honestly. 

 

I dont blame them. Most people are ****ing morons. 

[The Evil Genius]

Life Death comes at you fast.

 

 

 

 

[GoCommiesGo]

My agency just pushed our return to office date back by a month to March 1. I'm not expecting to be back until April / May honestly. 

[Elessar78]

I’ll say it again, it’s not deaths, it’s never been about deaths.

 

”flatten the curve”-we can’t overwhelm hospital systems. 

 

we have gotten lucky that a surge hasn’t stacked with another catastrophe—earthquake hitting California during a surge, hurricane striking FL during a surge, a power grid outage during a surge. 

[Renegade7]

Wife's friend tested positive 2nd time in a row on PCR test, so she still can't get a flight back home.

 

My PCR test results came back today, im positive now, too.

 

Wife is getting PCR today, im going to see if I can get one for our daughter since both hers and my rapid test were negative.

 

Rapid tests are useless for olks that are so far asymptomatic, I hope that's not what USPS is mailing everyone.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Renegade7

[tshile]

@Renegade7

why is she doing a pcr test to fly home? She could pop positive on that for 8 weeks. 
 

is someone requiring this? Cdc rules are 5 days after symptom onset and 24 hours post-symptoms, as long as she’s vaccinated and wears a mask. 

24 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Rapid tests are useless for olks that are so far asymptomatic, I hope that's not what USPS is mailing everyone.

Asymptomatic, vaccinated people don’t need to quarantine as long as they wear a mask. 

[Renegade7]

36 minutes ago, tshile said:

@Renegade7

why is she doing a pcr test to fly home? She could pop positive on that for 8 weeks. 
 

is someone requiring this? Cdc rules are 5 days after symptom onset and 24 hours post-symptoms, as long as she’s vaccinated and wears a mask. 

 

St Vincent requires a PCR test before coming back into their country.

 

What you are saying doesn't surprise me considering the supposed sensitivity of the test.

 

36 minutes ago, tshile said:

Asymptomatic, vaccinated people don’t need to quarantine as long as they wear a mask. 

 

Good to know, is their specific time frame for that with respect to positive test results. 

 

Everybody in house is vaccinated except my daughter, do they do PCR tests for infants yet?