BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 hours ago, Aristarchus said:

If an individual in a "% demographic" finds themselves in the "% fatal" column of coronavirus that individual is still 100% dead.

“He’s only mostly dead”

 

-Bernie Sanders in that one movie

[Larry]

3 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Much better chance of seeing a higher death total from this than Ebola.

 

Oh, no doubt.  

 

We see higher death totals from flu, already.  (DCD estimated 34,000 deaths from flu, in 18-19.)  

[tshile]

1 hour ago, mcsluggo said:

 

 

wtf is this aggression?   posting what the WASHINGTON POST says, and what the premier infectious disease expert in the USA says is the best current (early) estimation is  "nothing more than alarmist regurgitating information you find on the internet that you don't understand."

 

 

i'm not sure why the discussion is getting so heated?  of COURSE the estimates now are imperfect...it is the nature of estimation from an early imprecise highly volatile sample set

 

?

 

I asked him where he gets his info from. He came back with some nonsense about Fox News being my bible or some other dumb ****. 

 

So maybe you got who you wanted to check on aggression wrong, or maybe you didn't read it right.

 

I didn't say the washingpost was anything bad. But he spoke as if he has insider information, and he doesn't; he's grabbing info off the internet. In a thread with multiple people that are either on CDC conference calls, work at medical research centers, are doctors at major healthcare facilities, etc; yeah, that's 2nd rate information. Sorry, but it is. That doesn't mean it's bad, but it means he doesn't actually have inside information; at all.

 

And I didn't say anything bad about Fauci. He claimed Fauci said something - but Fauci didn't say that, and I pointed it out. Quite clearly. 

 

Go back and reread it, you're directing this at the wrong person.

 

The entire exchange has been him making wild accusations about things, but not backing any of them up when asked about them. At best he posted a link to an article that did not say what he claimed it did (it actually said what I claimed was the general consensus... ironically)

 

And he's still making them. I'm not against the idea that Trump has trump'd up yet another thing, but he's offered zero backing. Just  "trump controls the cdc" stuff. He's making wild accusations about death rates. He's full on alarmist and propagandist at this point. Usually people can at least halfway back their claims up, but he hasn't even tried. If that's the wagon you want to hitch your horse to... good luck.

 

 

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

The cdc just canceled their briefing for today. That’s horrible leadership and a direct result of Trump/Pence.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0302-COVID-19-update.html 

 

 

 

Did it stop its briefing with medical providers?

How do you know this came from trump?

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by tshile

[visionary]

 

 

[tshile]

re: WSJ story

 

Quote

Washington state health officials on Monday confirmed three additional deaths linked to the virus in King County, all stemming from the Life Care Center nursing facility in Kirkland—and one death from Snohomish County,

 

So... 3 of those deaths have been old people in a nursing home, where 1 already died. ie: Incredibly high risk population. 1 of which we know had other health complications, but let's be honest, 'has health complications' describes everyone that lives in a nursing home... for the most part. So that describes at least 4 of the 6.

 

The virus is worth paying attention to. But the headline writers, the tweeters, and the internet experts sure love to participate in fear mongering; even the ones that don't know they are participating.

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by tshile

[nonniey]

35 minutes ago, tshile said:

re: WSJ story

 

 

So... 3 of those deaths have been old people in a nursing home, where 1 already died. ie: Incredibly high risk population. 1 of which we know had other health complications, but let's be honest, 'has health complications' describes everyone that lives in a nursing home... for the most part. So that describes at least 4 of the 6.

 

The virus is worth paying attention to. But the headline writers, the tweeters, and the internet experts sure love to participate in fear mongering; even the ones that don't know they are participating.

 

I think it needs repeating that for those under 50 the risk (if caught) is less than if one caught the flu. And for those 51-60 it is about the same as the flu. It's just after 60 that things start to get worse than the flu (and substantially worse for those over 80 - almost 22% of confirmed cases).  And oh yeah for you parents with young ones - to date kids are almost totally immune to this Corona Virus.

Edited March 2, 2020 by nonniey

[tshile]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

14 officially confirmed cases in WA. 5 deaths. 36% death rate. That’s because of the Trump CDC testing restrictions. 

 

1 hour ago, mcsluggo said:

 

 

wtf is this aggression?   posting what the WASHINGTON POST says, and what the premier infectious disease expert in the USA says is the best current (early) estimation is  "nothing more than alarmist regurgitating information you find on the internet that you don't understand."

 

 

See: post after yours, which i quoted before yours

 

now the death rate is 36% 🤔

 

This is the danger of taking information you don't understand, and copy/pasting it all over the internet.

 

And if you aren't, nor haven't been, responsible for preparing for a run on hospitals, then you probably either don't care or don't see it.

 

But if you are responsible for that, and you are spending hours upon hours every week speaking with the CDC, arranging for plans on how to accommodate different numbers of people (100, 500, 1000, 5000? I mean there's millions of people within a 50 mil radius of where I live) then you do care. And you see the words people choose to use, and you picture how they come across to someone who's in a panic state; and you picture that it just increases panic. Which causes them to go grab more headlines full of information they don't understand, and copy/paste it all around the internet to all their other friends that also don't actually know anything about any of this, but are also in a panic.

 

What you seem to be seeing as aggression, is just basic fact checking. Where's the information coming from? Is there any backing for any of the accusations? Does the frame of mind here seem to be one of delirious panic, or does it sound like someone that actually understands the information they're sharing?

 

All the flags were there in the very first post he made in this thread. Subsequent posts have backed up that thought.  

 

This isn't the time to e-Knight for the Washington Post (a paper which I respect, generally speaking, by the way)

 

 

6 minutes ago, nonniey said:

I think it needs repeating that for those under 50 the risk (if caught) is less than if one caught the flue. And for those 51-60 it is about the same as the flu. It's just after 60 that things start to get worse than the flu.  

 

although i've heard weird grumblings about mid-aged males not faring very well...

 

but it's hard to tell when the bulk of the important data comes from China.... and I guess Iran?

SK is up there but I don't know enough to know whether their data can be trusted.

 

edit: I think @twa was talking about smokers too, which may be the more important factor than 'middle aged males'

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by tshile

[visionary]

 

 

 

[tshile]

Isn’t it still ~18 months to public availability given the testing requirements?

 

i also imagine they would try to release it to vulnerable populations first... but I don’t know if they can actually do that. 

[SoCalSkins]

@bcl05

 

Quick question if you happen to see this. A lot of articles are listing obesity as an underlying health problem in addition to heart and lung issues. So does being fat put you in the high risk category if you are otherwise healthy? If so, the impact on America could be pretty bad. 
 

I have put on some pounds over past few years. Another thing to worry about. 
 

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by SoCalSkins

[tshile]

for those that live in the area but aren't familiar with the numbers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Virginia

 

Quote

Of the 3,119,182 people in Northern Virginia in the 2017 estimates, 2,717,422 lived in "central" counties, or those counties and equivalent entities as delineated by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget as forming part of the urban core of the Washington Metropolitan Statistical Area. These counties include Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, and the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park.

 

In an area with 3 million people, having a thousand people show up at your hospital's ED in a 24 hour period is not an unrealistic concern; it's not hyperbole. 

 

and right now, that is the primary concern. how to handle a region of 3+ million people freaking the **** out. 

 

you all have been the stores around here after the weather people said it might snow, right?

 

[SoCalSkins]

22 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

 

See: post after yours, which i quoted before yours

 

now the death rate is 36% 🤔

 

This is the danger of taking information you don't understand, and copy/pasting it all over the internet.

 

 

 

 

You don’t understand math. I clearly stated that number is skewed because of the small sample size due to incompetence of the CDC not testing widely. You were disputing that even 2% is possible. 

Edited March 2, 2020 by SoCalSkins

[visionary]

 

[tshile]

9 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

You don’t understand math. I clearly stated that number is skewed because of the small sample size due to incompetence of the CDC not testing widely. You were disputing that even 2% is possible. 

 

a) I'll put my math creds up against yours, every day of the week. every day.

b) here's what you literally said. i guess if it could be extrapolated out into your conspiracy theory, but that wasn't how I read it. I read it as you claiming 36% death rate based on numbers you're finding on the internet.

 

2 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

14 officially confirmed cases in WA. 5 deaths. 36% death rate. That’s because of the Trump CDC testing restrictions. 

 

c) I never disputed 2% was possible. I disputed it was a number people were actually believing was realistic, and that most of the experts think it's likely inflated because of faulty reporting. You then claimed a very specific person said it was 2%, and 2% was real, then posted an article that said what I said not what you said. 
 

Edited March 2, 2020 by tshile

[SoCalSkins]

You have no cr

1 minute ago, tshile said:

 

a) I'll put my math creds up against yours, every day of the week. every day.

b) what you literally said was '14 officially confirmed cases in WA. 5 deaths. 36% death rate. That’s because of the Trump CDC testing restriction', you didn't state anything about any numbers being skewed in that post. 

 

 

c) I never disputed 2% was possible. I disputed it was a number people were actually believing was realistic, and that most of the experts think it's likely inflated because of faulty reporting. You then claimed a very specific person said it was 2%, and 2% was real, then posted an article that said what I said not what you said. 
 

 

You have no cred. Just a lot of back tracking and looking embarrassed. Pretty pathetic actually. 

[bcl05]

25 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

@bcl05

 

Quick question if you happen to see this. A lot of articles are listing obesity as an underlying health problem in addition to heart and lung issues. So does being fat put you in the high risk category if you are otherwise healthy? If so, the impact on America could be pretty bad. 
 

I have put on some pounds over past few years. Another thing to worry about. 
 

 

 

I haven't seen any granular data that breaks down which underlying health problems affect your risk most regarding this coronavirus.  I would presume that cardiopulmonary diseases and immune deficiencies would be the highest risk.  I would imagine (though haven't seen this kind data), that isolated obesity (without cardiovascular complications), shouldn't change risk too much.  At least (as a fat person), I hope so...

 

 

also: I was scheduled for a medical conference in LA for later this week.  Just got word that it's been cancelled due to coronavirus concerns. 

Edited March 2, 2020 by bcl05

[stoshuaj]

19 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

You have no cr

 

You have no cred. Just a lot of back tracking and looking embarrassed. Pretty pathetic actually. 

christ, the two of you get a room

 

just give the mic to bcl

Edited March 2, 2020 by stoshuaj

[SoCalSkins]

3 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

christ, the two of you get a room

 

just give the mic to bcl

I’m worried he might expose me to the virus if we are in the same room. 😂 

 

But yes bcl is the man! Dude has been beyond informative here.

[tshile]

14 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

christ, the two of you get a room

 

just give the mic to bcl

sorry for pointing out internet alarmist is internet alarmist.

 

carry on 

[Renegade7]

 

[bcl05]

As a physician, my biggest personal concern about this is not the coronavirus itself, but the supply chain disruption affecting medication (and other essential equipment) availability that could cause problems patients with all types of issues.  

 

In my particular subspecialty, we deal with extremely rare diseases and extremely esoteric drugs.  These medications are often produced in a single facility.  This makes them very vulnerable to supply interruptions.  I'm very worried about what will happen to my patients in the coming months if China doesn't go back to work soon...

 

Also - this is not an end of days type virus, nor is it a common cold.  There is an appropriate level of concern and fear.  Most people on line seem to be either convinced that the world is ending or that this is basically nothing and that experts are just fearmongering.  Both are wrong.  I hope in offline lives people are more levelheaded. 

[nonniey]

I wonder if Coronaviruses could be susceptible to asymmetric competitive suppression.  If so if you already have a corona virus (ie a cold) this new one may not be able to infect you until you get rid of the old one.  Of course protection would be of very limited duration. 

 

https://bmcmicrobiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2180-8-28

......However, in the vaccinia system, when one strain infects four hours after the other (superinfection), replication of the second strain is suppressed, and with a ten-hour lag time between infections, the second strain is unable to replicate at all (superinfection exclusion).....

Edited March 2, 2020 by nonniey

[bcl05]

4 minutes ago, nonniey said:

I wonder if Coronaviruses could be susceptible to asymmetric competitive suppression. (If so if you already have a corona virus (ie a cold) this new one may not be able to infect you until you get rid of the old one).  Of course protection would be of very limited duration. 

 

https://bmcmicrobiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2180-8-28

......However, in the vaccinia system, when one strain infects four hours after the other (superinfection), replication of the second strain is suppressed, and with a ten-hour lag time between infections, the second strain is unable to replicate at all (superinfection exclusion).....

 

Interesting idea, but I don't think it applies to this virus, unfortunately.  In that experiment, they were infecting individual cells with multiple strains of virus.  The difference between common circulating "normal" coronavirus and this one is that the common cold virus primarily infects cells of the upper respiratory epithelium (nose, sinuses, etc).  The reason the new coronavirus is more dangerous and worrisome is that it primarily infects lower respiratory tract cells (lungs), leading to pneumonia.  In fact, patients of covid19 apparently have little URI symptoms (no runny nose or congestion).  

 

So I think it would be hard to get multiple strains of coronavirus infecting the same cell.  Unless you were using this to treat SARS/MERS...

Edited March 2, 2020 by bcl05

[nonniey]

4 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

 

Interesting idea, but I don't think it applies to this virus, unfortunately.  In that experiment, they were infecting individual cells with multiple strains of virus.  The difference between common circulating "normal" coronavirus and this one is that the common cold virus primarily infects cells of the upper respiratory epithelium (nose, sinuses, etc).  The reason the new coronavirus is more dangerous and worrisome is that it primarily infects lower respiratory tract cells (lungs), leading to pneumonia.  In fact, patients of covid19 apparently have little URI symptoms (no runny nose or congestion).  

 

So I think it would be hard to get multiple strains of coronavirus infecting the same cell.  Unless you were using this to treat SARS/MERS...

Well, to be honest I kinda stepped into the deep end with my post above. Completely out of my depth. Thanks for the response. 

[visionary]