The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

So you believe:

1. Rendon would have signed in DC for the right amount of money.

2. BH is a great teammate and is all about the team and is worth his contract and DC should have resigned him.

3. Soto isn't resigning in DC because agent comments.

 

I don't believe #1 or any parts of #2. #3 is open - for me. 

 

1. Yes, I do.  Theres no evidence provided that he wouldn't have.

2. I wanted to resign and not going to act like I didn't.  From the link I posted:

 

Quote

In fact, he’s one of the only reasons the Phillies were relevant this late in the season. His .615 slugging percentage and 1.043 OPS lead all of MLB, as do his 41 doubles, a new career-high. He’s hit 35 home runs, tied for the second-most of his career.

 

3. Its bigger then agent talk, as a fan I am deeply concerned about our current team building philosophy.  We are acting like a small market team, but we arent, and its frustrating as hell. 

 

I hate developing in-house talent only to watch them leave or trade them away because we don't want to pay them, its a terrible precedent and reputation to have.  I coulda been sold on trading Max, but not Turner, ill never be convinced that was the right thing to do.

[Warhead36]

Harper is probably worth the money. Rendon I'm not so sure. He hasn't done much for the Angels and he was a bit of a late bloomer who really only had one great year in 2019.

[EmirOfShmo]

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

1. Yes, I do.  Theres no evidence provided that he wouldn't have.

2. I wanted to resign and not going to act like I didn't.  From the link I posted:

 

 

3. Its bigger then agent talk, as a fan I am deeply concerned about our current team building philosophy.  We are acting like a small market team, but we arent, and its frustrating as hell. 

 

I hate developing in-house talent only to watch them leave or trade them away because we don't want to pay them, its a terrible precedent and reputation to have.  I coulda been sold on trading Max, but not Turner, ill never be convinced that was the right thing to do.

1. Got it. But you have no proof to support it. I don't ever recall an article supporting Rendon would return to DC. Ever. 

2. Who cares? He never indicated he wanted to be in DC after his contract expired. 

3. We'll see. 

 

 

[Renegade7]

5 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

1. Got it. But you have no proof to support it. I don't ever recall an article supporting Rendon would return to DC. Ever. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

2. Who cares? He never indicated he wanted to be in DC after his contract expired. 

 

But he did leading up to it, highly recommend this article for how how his decision to leave went down

 

https://www.vnews.com/How-Bryce-Harper-went-from--I-m-gonna-be-a-National--to--We-re-going-to-Philly--24618824

 

5 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

3. We'll see. 

 

Thats not a plan.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Harper is probably worth the money. Rendon I'm not so sure. He hasn't done much for the Angels and he was a bit of a late bloomer who really only had one great year in 2019.

 

Thats tough when it comes to Rendon.  I'm not sure how anyone coulda predicted his injury issues since he went to LA, its killing his production for real.  

 

And its fair to say he had one great season.  Still, leading up to that he had 100 rbi in 17, 92 in 18, then 126 in 19.  That still really good.. He was our best offensive player in 2019 and left a gapping hole at 3B after he left.  Going back to pro baseball reference, the offensive drop-off from that position is staggering.

 

I argued to keep him at least to avoid that. I lost.  Could he have turned around and kept getting injured here? I have no idea, I didn't have that kinda foresight when I wanted to resign him. 

 

 

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Harper is probably worth the money. Rendon I'm not so sure. He hasn't done much for the Angels and he was a bit of a late bloomer who really only had one great year in 2019.

I mean he had other seasons of 5.1, 6.1, and 6.5 WAR.  Harper hasn’t had a collection of good seasons like that outside his 2015 season.

[@DCGoldPants]

Was reading the Boras comments on the Braves, the CBA and of course, Soto. I'd bet most teams would love to win specifically without his guys so they can put out the message he doesn't rep winners. I know I'd love a WS title without a single Boras client (I really want to keep Soto forever). He's a ****ing headache. 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[Riggo#44]

On 11/10/2021 at 10:09 PM, Renegade7 said:

Its bigger then agent talk, as a fan I am deeply concerned about our current team building philosophy.  We are acting like a small market team, but we arent, and its frustrating as hell. 

Thats not even remotely true. What small market teams dish out $210m for Scherzer, $245m for Strasburg? Are consistently in the top 5-7 in payroll for a decade? Add payroll for several years at the deadline? 

 

Houston just lowballed Correa and allowed Cole to walk. Boston dealt Betts. Chicago just unloaded Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo. Are they small market?

[Warhead36]

On 11/11/2021 at 12:59 PM, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

 

In fairness he's an agent, it's literally his job to get every penny he possibly can for his clients.

[Ball Security]

38 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

In fairness he's an agent, it's literally his job to get every penny he possibly can for his clients.

I understand his motives, but he’s absolutely right that sustained tanking is hurting the game.

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

Thats not even remotely true. What small market teams dish out $210m for Scherzer, $245m for Strasburg? Are consistently in the top 5-7 in payroll for a decade? Add payroll for several years at the deadline? 

 

Houston just lowballed Correa and allowed Cole to walk. Boston dealt Betts. Chicago just unloaded Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo. Are they small market?

 

They were 5-7 for 4 years out of 10 during the 2010's.  And that's not factoring in their deferred contracts which significantly lowers their annual payout.  

 

If they lose Soto, they are about to lose four straight MVP caliber bats to free agency.  No team keeps every star FA, but you can't continue to expect Rizzo to replace one homegrown MVP caliber player after another with new rookies.  Rizzo is operating with an extremely thin margin of error.

[Ball Security]

49 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

They were 5-7 for 4 years out of 10 during the 2010's.  And that's not factoring in their deferred contracts which significantly lowers their annual payout.  

 

If they lose Soto, they are about to lose four straight MVP caliber bats to free agency.  No team keeps every star FA, but you can't continue to expect Rizzo to replace one homegrown MVP caliber player after another with new rookies.  Rizzo is operating with an extremely thin margin of error.

Who’s the fourth? Harper, Rendon, Soto.  I’m blanking on the fourth.

[bearrock]

24 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Who’s the fourth? Harper, Rendon, Soto.  I’m blanking on the fourth.

 

Turner

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

Turner

Okay, but they didn’t lose him to FA though.  They got Ruiz and JoJo for him.  

[bearrock]

44 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Okay, but they didn’t lose him to FA though.  They got Ruiz and JoJo for him.  

 

True, but it's a pretty reasonable bet that they traded him because they saw the writing on the wall that they were unlikely to resign him.

[Riggo#44]

15 hours ago, bearrock said:

 

True, but it's a pretty reasonable bet that they traded him because they saw the writing on the wall that they were unlikely to resign him.

Or it made zero sense to resign him to a $300m+ contract as a rebuilding team...

18 hours ago, bearrock said:

They were 5-7 for 4 years out of 10 during the 2010's.  And that's not factoring in their deferred contracts which significantly lowers their annual payout.  

Youre right, so small market...:eyeroll:

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

Or it made zero sense to resign him to a $300m+ contract as a rebuilding team...

Youre right, so small market...:eyeroll:

 

What new excuse will we get when Soto walks? 

[Riggo#44]

8 hours ago, bearrock said:

 

What new excuse will we get when Soto walks? 

Other than Mookie Betts, how many of the mega-contracts made the playoffs last year? Lindor, Trout, Tatis, Harper, Machado....

[bearrock]

6 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

Other than Mookie Betts, how many of the mega-contracts made the playoffs last year? Lindor, Trout, Tatis, Harper, Machado....

 

Oh, so they should actually not resign Soto? Glad we got that squared away.  (St. Louis did fine with 75+ mil to Arenado and Goldschmidt).  

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

 

Oh, so they should actually not resign Soto? Glad we got that squared away.  (St. Louis did fine with 75+ mil to Arenado and Goldschmidt).  

Goldschidt was not a mega-deal. He signed a 5 yr, $130m contract. Hardly comparable. Arenado signed the deal in Colorado and was subsequently dealt. Another failed mega-deal. In fact, the Cards deferred $50m of that deal when he came over. The horror!

 

I didn't say I didn't want to sign Soto, but the idea that we HAVE to do it or be some small market, non-cometitive team is objectivly and demonstrably untrue. Signing anyone to that type of deal is tremendously risky and rarely works out.

The two that have? Betts on the limitless Dodgers and Max Scherzer. 

[bearrock]

31 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Goldschidt was not a mega-deal. He signed a 5 yr, $130m contract. Hardly comparable. Arenado signed the deal in Colorado and was subsequently dealt. Another failed mega-deal. In fact, the Cards deferred $50m of that deal when he came over. The horror!

 

I didn't say I didn't want to sign Soto, but the idea that we HAVE to do it or be some small market, non-cometitive team is objectivly and demonstrably untrue. Signing anyone to that type of deal is tremendously risky and rarely works out.

The two that have? Betts on the limitless Dodgers and Max Scherzer. 

 

5/130 is 26 a year.  For a contract he signed at 32.  Svrluga proposed 15/500 for Soto.  26 mil today is going to feel a lot smaller than 33 in 15 years.  And it even got to this point because Nats waited too long to push for an extension (best time to extend would've been before Soto hit arbitration years).  And now the excuse of "oh we need to save money for the next guy" is gone.  At some point, if you let one homegrown talent after another leave, than you may not be a small market team, but you're certainly not behaving like the 6-8th largest market in baseball.  

 

It takes the stars to align to win the WS.  But spending money and smart management can help you contend year after year.  They have the hard part down in Rizzo.  But unless the Lerners open up the wallet and scrap the accounting gimmick, it's going to be difficult for Rizzo to consistently replicate the run of young talent overlapping like Harper-Rendon-Turner-Soto.  

[Warhead36]

Normally I'm in agreement with Riggo reg. megastars not being conducive to winning. I've made that point myself several times. But with that said, losing Soto would be a death knell to this franchise.

[Riggo#44]

30 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

5/130 is 26 a year.  For a contract he signed at 32.  Svrluga proposed 15/500 for Soto.  26 mil today is going to feel a lot smaller than 33 in 15 years.  And it even got to this point because Nats waited too long to push for an extension (best time to extend would've been before Soto hit arbitration years).  And now the excuse of "oh we need to save money for the next guy" is gone.  At some point, if you let one homegrown talent after another leave, than you may not be a small market team, but you're certainly not behaving like the 6-8th largest market in baseball.  

 

It takes the stars to align to win the WS.  But spending money and smart management can help you contend year after year.  They have the hard part down in Rizzo.  But unless the Lerners open up the wallet and scrap the accounting gimmick, it's going to be difficult for Rizzo to consistently replicate the run of young talent overlapping like Harper-Rendon-Turner-Soto.  

A couple gaping holes in this:

1. Scott Boras. No mention of him, whatsoever. The automatic assumption the Nats waited too long is myopic and one sided. Boras never does deals like that.

2. Soto has already said he wants to see the team in contention before signing an extension. Granted that's probably posturing from Boras, but still...

3. You have to spend to win, but Spending doesn't guarantee winning. Most teams use those accounting gimmicks, as evidenced by the Cardinals deferring Arenado's money.

4. This is all a rant on what might happen three years from now. I'm not going to wring my hands over it. 3 years is a long time. A lot of what people have said here were the same things people said about Harper.

5. You still ignore a tangible reality: these mega deals rarely work out. Very rarely. Most times, they're a hindrance to winning.

 

I see Soto getting traded more than anything else. Mariners traded Griffey and allowed A-Rod to walk in FA. Won 116 games--one player is never a death knell for a franchise. So, while I'd love to see Soto as a Nat for life, it's unlikely, but a lot can change. So we'll see, I'm not going to worry about it.

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

A couple gaping holes in this:

1. Scott Boras. No mention of him, whatsoever. The automatic assumption the Nats waited too long is myopic and one sided. Boras never does deals like that.

2. Soto has already said he wants to see the team in contention before signing an extension. Granted that's probably posturing from Boras, but still...

3. You have to spend to win, but Spending doesn't guarantee winning. Most teams use those accounting gimmicks, as evidenced by the Cardinals deferring Arenado's money.

4. This is all a rant on what might happen three years from now. I'm not going to wring my hands over it. 3 years is a long time. A lot of what people have said here were the same things people said about Harper.

5. You still ignore a tangible reality: these mega deals rarely work out. Very rarely. Most times, they're a hindrance to winning.

 

I see Soto getting traded more than anything else. Mariners traded Griffey and allowed A-Rod to walk in FA. Won 116 games--one player is never a death knell for a franchise. So, while I'd love to see Soto as a Nat for life, it's unlikely, but a lot can change. So we'll see, I'm not going to worry about it.

 

1.  Can't blame Turner on Boras.  Young stars don't sign long term deals before arbitration unless it is a great deal.  The point is not to save money, the point is to give yourself a chance to actually lock him up cause closer you get to free agency, more likely they are to test it.  

 

2.  Team was in contention mode before 2020 and 2021.  The rebuild mentality would not have been an issue for extension during those springs.

 

3.  You and I have been through this a few times now.  Nobody in baseball uses deferred money to the magnitude that the Nats do.  It's not even close.

 

4.  And the speculation that they would lose Harper, Rendon, Turner all turned out to be true.  You yourself seem to have moved from it's okay to lose those guys cause we have to keep Soto to we can lose Soto too.

 

5.  Plenty of players fizzle after mega contracts.  But plenty contribute after too.  JD Martinez signed that 22mil per year DH deal and won the WS.  Altuve's contract didn't stop Houston from reaching the WS this year.  Freeman signed his 20+ mil deal 8 years ago before hitting arbitration.  That's a load of money too.  You have to pay people at some point.  If Soto at 22 is too big a risk, you might as well hang out closed for business on big FA bats.

 

And that is the nuts and bolts of it.  Only way to keep Soto at this juncture is to spend mega-bucks.  Very few teams do it.  It is clear that the Nats are not one of those teams.  That's not dictated by market reality though.  It's ownership decision.

 

The writing is on the wall.  Soto is not staying.  Then trade him now when his value is sky high instead of waiting for crumb offers before the deadline a year and half from now.  This team is not contending the next two years without copious influx of win now talents via free agency anyway, with or without Soto.