nonniey

2018 Fantasy Football

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Yes it's getting to be about that time.

 

So Dynasty PPR draft just started 5th pick. Barkley, Gurley and Elliot are gone (Yeah unbelievably Barkley went #1 - I was hoping to get him in the 2d round). Ths is a slow E-Mail draft.

 

So who should I take since this is a Dynasty format?. One more will be drafted prior to my pick. Think OBJ is the highest rated left followed by Hopkins, Brown and Bell. Think #4 is leaning Hopkins.

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On ‎5‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 10:19 AM, nonniey said:

Yes it's getting to be about that time.

 

So Dynasty PPR draft just started 5th pick. Barkley, Gurley and Elliot are gone (Yeah unbelievably Barkley went #1 - I was hoping to get him in the 2d round). Ths is a slow E-Mail draft.

 

So who should I take since this is a Dynasty format?. One more will be drafted prior to my pick. Think OBJ is the highest rated left followed by Hopkins, Brown and Bell. Think #4 is leaning Hopkins.

Way late here so who'd you get at 5?

 

I don't think I'd remove David Johnson from the play, although I understand the priority given to WR over RB in a dynasty format. But Johnson is a beast. He or Kamara would be solid picks. But there are probably a ton of quality RB options to be had in the 2nd round if you were to go WR. Brown is a stud but he's also been doing it for a while, so I'd maybe target a younger WR.

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I have the ability to keep Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Josh Gordon, or Kenyan Drake for $20 apiece on a half PPR $220 auction cap. We can keep 2 players. I have David Johnson ($55) and Devanta Adams ($27) penciled in right now, but any reason to consider any of the other options for the floor price of $20?

 

Drake was a beast down the stretch last year but idk if I'm trusting that offense in Miami to be good enough o support a consistent fantasy RB. Derrick Henry is so hit/miss that I don't think he's worth the risk. Josh Gordon has so much upside but for $7 more I feel like Adams is a much safer bet to keep. David Johnson is such a stud, I can't really pass up on keeping him even if it's for a near-market rate of $55.

 

I came in last place last year after going 1st-3rd-1st the previous 3 years because I built my team around David Johnson, Melvin Gordon and then a bunch of high-upside players/rookies/2nd year guys that I way overvalued (hello Mixon, Corey Davis, Devante Parker and Paul Perkins). I never overcame the David Johnson/Allen Robinson injruies and lack of production from the "back-end" guys I banked on for upside. And I busted on most of them. So part of me feels like locking in Johnson and Adams as my anchors at WR/RB is a safe bet.

 

My draft strategy is to get 2 "safe" players at RB/WR to pair with 2 "upside" guys and hope it serves me better to complement Adams/Johnson. My biggest mistake last year was avoiding the Larry Fitzgerald/Golden Tate types in search of the next breakout Top 10 out of nowhere young buck.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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After my experiences last year ... I've come to respect the "high floor / low ceiling" veteran types that can anchor a team. Danny Woodhead and Frank Gore are two players at RB that would historically make this list. Guys that in an auction draft over the last 4-5 years would never really garner big money, usually go for around $5-10 ... but would end the season as Top 10-15 players. Guys that aren't sexy but get the job done.

 

I find that there are fewer options at RB in this category this year. Gore is in Miami where I expect him to take a back seat to Drake. Carlos Hyde, who'd be primed for this list in 2018 had he stayed in San Fran, is now in an RBBC with Chubb and Johnson in Cleveland which might hamper his value a bit. LeSean McCoy might be entering this territory due to his age, but I have a hard time seeing his value dropping to the single digits. But maybe he qualifies here if he's going in some leagues for $10-15.

 

Anyone have any ideas for players that might fit this definition? A guy that you want to have as your RB4 or 5 who you know can provide stability should you encounter injuries or you fail to hit on the high-upside guys?

 

Now that I think about it Carlos Hyde might be a perfect candidate because of the RBBC. I could see Hyde slipping to $4-5 in auction drafts due to the uncertainty of his role. But if you're looking for Mr. Steady, for $5, maybe having a guy who has a strong history of finishing Top 15-20 in a new setting isn't a bad bet.

 

Jerrick McKinnon MIGHT fit, but in my opinion there's just not enough evidence of success there, and his price is likely to be in the $20-30 range, which disqualifies him IMO.

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Here's my list of break-out RBs for 2018 in order of their "breakout-ness" ...


Sure-Things (Top 20 Floor, Top 5 Ceiling)

1. Saquan Barkley

2. Joe Mixon

3. Derrius Guice

4. Sony Michel

 

These guys are starters who have massive upside in their respective offenses

 

Maaaaybe! (Top 40 Floor, Top 10-15 Ceiling)

5. Rashaad Penny

6. Ronald Jones

7. Kerryon Johnson

8. Alex Collins

 

These guys are in a position to succeed because they're either penciled as starters or have a good chance at seizing the starting roles in offenses with question marks (Seattle - OL, Tampa - Offense, Detroit - Running backs never flourish, Baltimore - other competition/mediocre offense)

 

There's a chance (If they get defined role, could be Top 15, otherwise a big flyer)

9. D'Onta Foreman

10. Nyheim Hines

11. Marlon Mack

12. Nick Chubb

 

These guys are in a position to seize a big role at some point in the season, but may not be until later in the season.

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17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Anyone have any ideas for players that might fit this definition? A guy that you want to have as your RB4 or 5 who you know can provide stability should you encounter injuries or you fail to hit on the high-upside guys?

Chris Ivory?

Fat Rob maybe?

 

Here's my roster for year 2 of a 30 man Dynasty (Was falling asleep when I made it and put some people in the wrong positions. lol)

35553285_10215060068637794_5155496850253

 

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OBJ is talent like no other, but i am leery to the point that i traded him last year in my dynasty league for Dalvin Cook.

I don't like the Giants offense regardless of so-called upgrades. 

I am much more inclined these days to going back to the old "draft RBs early" rule.. because te position has changed so much the majority of so called "rb1s" will get 15-20 carries at the most. So many platoon situations that finding that bell cow back is difficult.

The drop off from the top tier to the next tier at RB is significant. 

Secure a RB that will get your 25 touches per game first. Chances are by the time it gets back around to you the RBs who are left will be drastically different in terms of touches and / or scoring chances.
The differences between the receivers you can get in round 2 or round 3 aren't much.

 

 

~Bang

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4 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

I'd expect Jerick McKinnon to have a huge year, especially in PPR leagues.

Interesting. I know a lot of people are high on him. He's being projected Top 12-15. The system fit is there. But the track record for a huge year isn't, necessarily. He seems like a boom-bust kinda guy to me this year.

 

I did some digging on last year's performances. It kind of validates my opinions when it comes to WRs, but it really isn't as true for RBs. Which supports the "get the stud RBs early" notion.

 

Here are the WRs I am now putting on my "target" list who I think should be had for "bargain" prices so to speak (below there value whether ADP or auction) ... here's where these guys finished ranking-wise in 2017. Now some are a bit misleading because of hot-streaks and the like, but still ... lot of these guys were in similar positions in 2016, and many were not drafted anywhere near where they finished ranking-wise. And I doubt anyone will catch-on to this again this year, particularly in auctions when guys like this are around at the end of the daft and can be had for really cheap.

- Larry Fitzgerald: WR6

- Marvin Jones: WR10

- Golden Tate: WR15

- JuJu Smith-Schuster: WR16

- Robby Anderson: WR17

- Kenny Stills: WR25

 

Off the top of my head I think Fitz was $11 in my league, Jones was $5, Tate was $16, Smith-Schuster was $1 (Rookie, not surprising), Anderson was $1, Stills was undrafted.

 

None of these guys necessarily won leagues. But they were solid contributors and rosters could benefit from having 1-2 of these guys in addition to some higher-end talent just to balance the up and downs of a season.

 

 

I would bet that none of these players, with the exception of Smith-Schuster, will be drafted for more than $12 in an auction format based on projections for this year. But a lot of these names appeared in this same range in 2016. So, if you want some stability, these are the WRs you should be targeting for your WR2/3 depth, to counter any big-money targets or high-upside risky flyers you want to take at the position.

 

Example:

I'll keep Devante Adams as my WR1

I'll likely try to draft Smith-Schuster or TY Hilton as my "Upside" WR1/2

I'll try to get 2 of Fitz/Tate/Jones/Anderson/Stills to anchor my WR3/4 spots

I'll take a flyer on a guy like Josh Doctson (not so much of a flyer IMO) or Corey Davis to be my WR5 and hope for WR2 status

 

Adams / Smith-Schuster / Tate / Anderson / Doctson might not scream "sexy" or "league winning" but I bet of those 5 WRs, 4 of them will be Top 20 come end of 2018 ...

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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WR Marquise Goodwin. Seemed to have a good connection with Jimmy G and would be their deep threat.

 

Is it too early to recommend Guice as a keeper target? ?

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2 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

WR Marquise Goodwin. Seemed to have a good connection with Jimmy G and would be their deep threat.

 

Is it too early to recommend Guice as a keeper target? ?

Good call on Goodwin. He was something like WR9 down the last 5-6 games. 

 

Im pretty dead set on getting Guice and Mixon as my RB2 and RB3. I’m in a league of skins fans so the price on Guice May be inflated. But I expect big things. 

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11 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Way late here so who'd you get at 5?

 

I don't think I'd remove David Johnson from the play, although I understand the priority given to WR over RB in a dynasty format. But Johnson is a beast. He or Kamara would be solid picks. But there are probably a ton of quality RB options to be had in the 2nd round if you were to go WR. Brown is a stud but he's also been doing it for a while, so I'd maybe target a younger WR.

I took Brown. Lots of reaches by other teams for rookies so I ended up with an overwhelming strong team probably the best team I ever drafted. But it is is built for the short to mid term. On Paper I have to be the heavy favorite the next 2-3 years but we'll see how that holds up.

 

Here is my team I traded all by 2019 1st and 2d for Henry Hunt a hour before he got hurt (Figures) Here is my team:

 

Allen, Josh BUF QB (R) 11  
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 143.60 7  
Smith, Alex WAS QB 307.18 4  
Booker, Devontae DEN RB 87.80 10  
Collins, Alex BAL RB 157.40 10  
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB (Q) 176.40 8  
Johnson, Duke CLE RB 198.60 11  
McCoy, LeSean BUF RB (Q) 260.40 11  
White, James NEP RB 134.00 11  
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 310.30 7  
Doctson, Josh WAS WR 112.10 4  
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 249.94 9  
Grant, Ryan IND WR 122.00 9  
Hogan, Chris NEP WR 109.60 11  
Jones, Julio ATL WR 238.90 8  
Doyle, Jack IND TE 159.20 9  
Henry, Hunter LAC TE (O) 126.90 8  
Walker, Delanie TEN TE 173.60 8  
Bailey, Dan DAL PK 81.00 8  
Texans, Houston HOU Def

 

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@nonniey not bad at all. I have never done a dynasty so I'm not sure exactly how valuable a 1st/2nd rounder would be, but I've got to imagine that's a fairly steep price for a TE. Although the long-term situation there isn't bad. Walker should carry you this year, and Henry is a great long-term option there. WR is stacked, although Fitz is on borrowed time. I like the long-term potential of Duke Johnson as the 3db to Chubb in Cleveland ... Collins is a solid play ... Booker is someone being overlooked but he could definitely take the mantel from Freeman in Denver. But yeah, otherwise RB is a bit weak, and it might be tough to re-load in 2019 if your top pick is a 3rd. But anyway, I like the roster a lot and If you can hold on for dear life for a couple years with Freeman/McCoy, you could replenlish that RB youth in 2020.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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8 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@nonniey not bad at all. I have never done a dynasty so I'm not sure exactly how valuable a 1st/2nd rounder would be, but I've got to imagine that's a fairly steep price for a TE. Although the long-term situation there isn't bad. Walker should carry you this year, and Henry is a great long-term option there. WR is stacked, although Fitz is on borrowed time. I like the long-term potential of Duke Johnson as the 3db to Chubb in Cleveland ... Collins is a solid play ... Booker is someone being overlooked but he could definitely take the mantel from Freeman in Denver. But yeah, otherwise RB is a bit weak, and it might be tough to re-load in 2019 if your top pick is a 3rd. But anyway, I like the roster a lot and If you can hold on for dear life for a couple years with Freeman/McCoy, you could replenlish that RB youth in 2020.

Well the good news is I only have to start 1 RB. (there are 2 flex players RB/WR/TE).

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I keep running mock auctions with FantasyPros auction simulator. I keep ending up with a slew of rookie RBs and I’m getting crushed for it but I think this is another year for the rooks. I’ve been ending up with David Johnson and then Guice, Michel, Royce and Ronald jones. 

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On 6/19/2018 at 7:47 AM, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Can someone explain why many fantasy owners make patently absurd trade proposals. Recently had a Dynasty draft and this guy is offering two players he drafted in rounds 13 and 15 for 2 of mine that were drafted in rounds 3 and 4.

 

BTW not sure why the system quoted JamesMadisonSkins for a response.

Edited by nonniey

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12 hours ago, nonniey said:

Can someone explain why many fantasy owners make patently absurd trade proposals. Recently had a Dynasty draft and this guy is offering two players he drafted in rounds 13 and 15 for 2 of mine that were drafted in rounds 3 and 4.

 

BTW not sure why the system quoted JamesMadisonSkins for a response.

What was the proposal? It seems absurd, but with a draft this early and without context its hard to know. Although based on your reaction it seems like an absurd trade. That is someone that I would consider NOT a good fantasy player.

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25 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What was the proposal? It seems absurd, but with a draft this early and without context its hard to know. Although based on your reaction it seems like an absurd trade. That is someone that I would consider NOT a good fantasy player.

He offered Cobb and D. Booker for Guice and Josh Gordan

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35 minutes ago, nonniey said:

He offered Cobb and D. Booker for Guice and Josh Gordan

lol. even with Gordon's mental health leave, that's ridiculous.

 

There's definitely time for things to change, and leagues with owners who do a lot of research (like mine) will likely inflate things a bit, but the auction value of some of these rookie RBs seems ridiculous, especially considering where other RBs in the Top 20 are being drafted.

 

Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson especially. Dudes are slated to be their team's bell-cow and were drafted in the first 2 rounds, which is histprically the sweet spot for breakout fantasy years ... and all 3 have a current auction cost of $2 to $10 depending on the simulation. So in theory you could get all 3 as your RB3-5 for the cost of just getting Kenyan Drake.

 

This leads me to mock auctions that have me landing 4 rookies to pair with David Johnson. I'm targeting Michel and Guice aggressively as my RB2 and RB3 but am getting a lot of Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman at the backend.

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14 hours ago, nonniey said:

Can someone explain why many fantasy owners make patently absurd trade proposals. Recently had a Dynasty draft and this guy is offering two players he drafted in rounds 13 and 15 for 2 of mine that were drafted in rounds 3 and 4.

 

BTW not sure why the system quoted JamesMadisonSkins for a response.

I have found that many people in FF leagues think they are a shark and everyone else is too stupid to even know how much of a shark they are.

Absurd offers are way too common, and frankly, i can't stand it.. it hurts leagues.

Obviously no one is going to trade with this person but all too often it stops many trades because people don't feel like getting insulted by the offers they receive. In the main keeper league I play in there are hardly ANY trades.. i am the newbie of the group in my fifth year, and i send out trade offers all the time, and they get ignored. Hardly any trades happen.

I only send out fair offers because I will not be that guy from above. When i send an offer, i have thought about what you need AND what I need, not just how i can raid your roster. Fair offers move players around, keeps keeper and dynasty leagues fresh.

Last year I got tired of Julio Jones. I've had him since i drafted him .. but last year i got tired of the constant tease. The guy never scores.. but once in a while he will put up that 10 catch 175 yard 2 TD day, and you start him for 3 months waiting for similar production.

So I offered him for Dalvin Cook toward the end of the season and made the deal.

People think it's nuts, but I'm happy with it, and I am sure the guy i traded with thinks he's happy with it, too.

 

~Bang

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10 minutes ago, Bang said:

I have found that many people in FF leagues think they are a shark and everyone else is too stupid to even know how much of a shark they are.

Absurd offers are way too common, and frankly, i can't stand it.. it hurts leagues.

Obviously no one is going to trade with this person but all too often it stops many trades because people don't feel like getting insulted by the offers they receive. In the main keeper league I play in there are hardly ANY trades.. i am the newbie of the group in my fifth year, and i send out trade offers all the time, and they get ignored. Hardly any trades happen.

I only send out fair offers because I will not be that guy from above. When i send an offer, i have thought about what you need AND what I need, not just how i can raid your roster. Fair offers move players around, keeps keeper and dynasty leagues fresh.

Last year I got tired of Julio Jones. I've had him since i drafted him .. but last year i got tired of the constant tease. The guy never scores.. but once in a while he will put up that 10 catch 175 yard 2 TD day, and you start him for 3 months waiting for similar production.

So I offered him for Dalvin Cook toward the end of the season and made the deal.

People think it's nuts, but I'm happy with it, and I am sure the guy i traded with thinks he's happy with it, too.

 

~Bang

 

Julio is also at that point, like Calvin Johnson, where the body is going to start breaking down. Bigger wide receivers just don't last long. Plus you got a good, young back. 

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37 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

lol. even with Gordon's mental health leave, that's ridiculous.

 

There's definitely time for things to change, and leagues with owners who do a lot of research (like mine) will likely inflate things a bit, but the auction value of some of these rookie RBs seems ridiculous, especially considering where other RBs in the Top 20 are being drafted.

 

Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson especially. Dudes are slated to be their team's bell-cow and were drafted in the first 2 rounds, which is histprically the sweet spot for breakout fantasy years ... and all 3 have a current auction cost of $2 to $10 depending on the simulation. So in theory you could get all 3 as your RB3-5 for the cost of just getting Kenyan Drake.

 

This leads me to mock auctions that have me landing 4 rookies to pair with David Johnson. I'm targeting Michel and Guice aggressively as my RB2 and RB3 but am getting a lot of Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman at the backend.

 

i just glanced in this thread... and saw RG3 out of the corner of my eye....    i think you can draft him for a SONG this year... a total steal!

 

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Last year I finished last after going 1-2-1 in 14/15/16 in my big money league. I targeted a lot of high-upside guys but also had some bad luck.

 

My RBs to start the season were David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Paul Perkins and CJ Anderson.

My WRs were Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas, Devantae Parker and some other bottom feeder who sucked

 

I had awful luck streaming QBs between Rivers, Big Ben and Mariota (literally got less than 10 points for the first 9 weeks which killed me).

 

Obviously there was some bad luck, but also some "misses" on upside guys that I was relying on to deliver. That has me second guessing my strategy this year.

 

I'm targeting more "sure things" to fill out my WR core. Guys like Tate, Fitz, Crowder, Hogan, Demaryius. Guys that are solid WR2/3. But I'm back to going all-in on the upside guys at RB. Mainly because this is a keeper league and most of the Top 10 are being kept. But also because the vets that will be available (and the cost to get them) just doesn't appeal to me. So I keep finding myself with a RB core of David Johnson and then a mix of Guice, Sony Michel, Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones, etc.

 

The draft auction simulator at Fantasy Pros isn't giving me high marks with that strategy, but I think it's the best route. Am I missing something? The guys I keep getting on my roster are all guys that are being touted as "must haves" "targets" "upside" etc.

 

It's kind of crazy. Looking at my roster to end the season (went 2-11) ... I'd actually kill for it right now for this season, which is odd. Which makes me think last year was more bad-timing/bad-luck than totally missing on players. At least looking at how these players are being projected this year.

 

RBs: David Johnson (IR), Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Aaron Jones

WRs: Davante Adams, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Robinson (IR), Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Corey Davis

TEs: Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph

 

If Johsnon/Robinson had been healthy last year and I had one competent QB, that could have been 9-4 just as easily. That team went 2-11.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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Man, y'all have some early drafts.  Anything before the preseason starts is nuts, IMO.  I dont participate in any league drafting before the 2nd or 3rd preseason game.

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