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20/20 Hindsight game: What if we had drafted Todd Gurley last year?


Area51

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Because you don't want anyone on your team that would even bluff this kind of bull****. I don't care how good he is. I obviously don;t know, but I believe that's what Scot's position is. At some point the guy has a very good chance of being a headache. Possibly not. But it's not worth the chance of bringing a potential knucklehead into your team.

 

One, I think the bluff was more a brain child of Collins' agent than Collins.  Two, I don't really see the bluff as much of a red flag.  This wasn't abusing illegal substances, domestic violence, DUI.  So far as I know, Collins did not come with any such off the field issues.  The bluff was just a bargaining ploy to get the player drafted higher and thus command more money.  If that were enough of a red flag to exclude Collins, then probably at least half the field would be off limits.

 

If there was a real risk, it was that Collins may have been involved with his ex-girlfriend's murder--given the scant information that was available at that point.  But, I think using a low-round pick on him was warranted despite that risk, because the potential gain was huge.  Collins is now a starter on what many pundits regard to be the best Oline in the NFL, and Dallas got him for nothing.

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We are going to be scoring so many points that nobody is going to be running the ball on us anyway.

 

I heard it on ES so it must be true :D

 

I will drink to that! 

 

Seriously, the Skins' passing offense looks scary at this point.  A heady and talented QB coming into his own surrounded by a good pass-protection Oline and probably the best receiving corp (including TE) in the League.  A quiet kudos to Mike Shanahan.  He may not have accomplished much here, but he insisted on drafting Cousins despite the fact that the team had mortgaged the farm for RG3.

 

But, when you score primarily by passing you score quickly. That means your defense will have to be on the field a lot.  Now that the Skins have turned their secondary from a position of severe weakness into a position of strength, opposition offenses will be looking to run the ball against us, which will have the added benefit for them of keeping our offense off the field.  So, my take is that how the Skins do this season will depend a lot upon their defense's ability to stuff the run.  On paper, the Dline is weak.  It will be McCloughan's job to fix that by the start of the 2017 season, if not 2016.

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We have to understand the direction our teams heading vs our competition. We are being managed by a former QB now and you can see the effects that is having on the team. All signs are pointing to us being a passing first team going forward with us drafting Doctson and Crowder the past two seasons. When you draft a RB with a top 5 pick your not looking to do that, your looking at doing the opposite.

 

 

 

I think the overwhelming majority of teams in the NFL are "pass first" teams now.  The few that are not are trying to be.  It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB high.  Even an elite RB would unlikely be a difference maker in today's NFL.  Moreover, RBs have the shortest shelf-life of any position.  Alfred Morris has been in the NFL for 4 years, but he is likely over the hill already.  The only circumstance that warrants drafting a RB high is when a team is "set" at everywhere else.  And, that situation occurs rarely.  So, passing on Gurley for an Olineman like Scherff was a no-brainer.  On the other hand, WRs are what RBs used to be.  So, drafting WRs high does make sense.

I wouldn't, AP is great but a Dbag off the field and I wouldn't have wanted to live through that crap a few years ago he put his team through. But on paper sure I would have done that but knowing that I'm glad we didn't.

 

Do you remember what AP said during the time he was refusing to honor his contract with the Vikings?  He proclaimed himself to be the "most valuable" player in the NFL.  A RB more valuable than an elite QB?  Now, that's delusional!

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I was pulling for Scot to take Kelly @ C this year, another O lineman, so we'd have had another bout of "oh noes!" if that had panned out I guess. Core strength ain't in flashy players, you can find guys to make plays if the heart of the machine runs, the line protects, the QB stays upright, etc.

 

While I tend to agree that building a good Oline is very important, I don't agree that the Skins should pick Kelly in the 1st round in this past draft had he been available.  The Skins Oline is already pretty darn good, and there are 4 candidates on the roster to play center this season (Lich, Long, LeRib, Reit).  On the other hand, Doctson looks like the best WR in this draft with terrific length and hands.  DJax and Garcon are both in the last year of their contracts.  So, Doctson could be crucial for 2017 and beyond if not this year.  And, WRs are now what RBs used to be--a critical position.

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But, when you score primarily by passing you score quickly. That means your defense will have to be on the field a lot.  Now that the Skins have turned their secondary from a position of severe weakness into a position of strength, opposition offenses will be looking to run the ball against us, which will have the added benefit for them of keeping our offense off the field.  So, my take is that how the Skins do this season will depend a lot upon their defense's ability to stuff the run.  On paper, the Dline is weak.  It will be McCloughan's job to fix that by the start of the 2017 season, if not 2016

 

Bolded that because I'm not sure if that's conventional thinking that is no longer accurate or what to make of last season. Here is what I mean

 

The top ten teams in 2015 in time of possession were

 

1 - Carolina

2 - Atlanta

3 - San Diego

4 - Washington

5 - Kansas City

6 - Arizona

7 - New Orleans

8 - Buffalo

9 - Chicago

10 - Dallas

 

Now from that list these teams I looked at two different stats to see Passing and Rushing broken down. I want to test the theory that if being a passing first team means your time of possession suffers, and if you are a rushing first team what that does to time of possession

 

NFLs top passing yards per game with rankings from the list above were

 

1 - New Orleans

2 - Arizona

4 - San Diego

6 - Atlanta

11 - Washington

 

5 out of the 10 teams were top 10 passing offenses last year and made the top 10 for time of possession.

 

Now same thing this time its for rushing yards per game and where the remainder of those teams ranked....

 

1 - Buffalo

2 - Carolina

6 - Kansas City

9 - Dallas

11 - Chicago

 

Which again is 5 out of the top 10 teams in time of possession.

 

At worst you would say its inconclusive but now check out the top scoring teams in the league last year and where these teams ranked in points per game and what type of offense they ran...

 

1 - Carolina - Rushing Offense

2 - Arizona - Passing Offense

8 - New Orleans - Passing Offense

9 - Kansas City - Rushing Offense

10 - Washington - Passing Offense

12 - Buffalo - Rushing Offense

 

Everyone else was not top 15 in terms of scoring points per game. That's a 3/3 split. The ties here to me indicate that you can be a time of possession hog and throw on every down. There isn't really an advantage to being a rushing first team like we think. Just because you lead the league in passing doesn't mean your time of possession for the season is affected any more then if you are leading the league in rushing helps it.

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One, I think the bluff was more a brain child of Collins' agent than Collins.  Two, I don't really see the bluff as much of a red flag.  This wasn't abusing illegal substances, domestic violence, DUI.  So far as I know, Collins did not come with any such off the field issues.  The bluff was just a bargaining ploy to get the player drafted higher and thus command more money.  If that were enough of a red flag to exclude Collins, then probably at least half the field would be off limits.

 

If there was a real risk, it was that Collins may have been involved with his ex-girlfriend's murder--given the scant information that was available at that point.  But, I think using a low-round pick on him was warranted despite that risk, because the potential gain was huge.  Collins is now a starter on what many pundits regard to be the best Oline in the NFL, and Dallas got him for nothing.

 

 

I respect your opinion but just disagree. I think it was a dick move to take advantage of his girlfriends murder to try and engineer where he goes, then he does not have the kind of integrity to be on this team. Even if it was his agents idea, he still hade to go along with it. Sorry, just the way I see it.

 

On the bright side it screwed him out of $Ms and he is buried on the depth chart on a young very good Oline. It's very unlikely he will ever make the money he would have had they pulled this garbage move.

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We did? I thought someone else drafted him.

 

We did. Looking into it further, we held onto him for a year, and then the Giants signed him in 2011. He stuck with them until 2013, and has gone off the radar ever since.

 

 

While I tend to agree that building a good Oline is very important, I don't agree that the Skins should pick Kelly in the 1st round in this past draft had he been available.  The Skins Oline is already pretty darn good, and there are 4 candidates on the roster to play center this season (Lich, Long, LeRib, Reit).  On the other hand, Doctson looks like the best WR in this draft with terrific length and hands.  DJax and Garcon are both in the last year of their contracts.  So, Doctson could be crucial for 2017 and beyond if not this year.  And, WRs are now what RBs used to be--a critical position.

If Doctson pans out, it'll be great, but I wouldn't say that the number of people at center makes for a good reason not to take one in the first round. The impression I got was that Lich is a band-aid until someone that fits the scheme comes in. The rest seem unlikely, or downright mediocre. (I still can't wrap my head around Ribs being a starting center, even with his playing time last season.)

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If Doctson pans out, it'll be great, but I wouldn't say that the number of people at center makes for a good reason not to take one in the first round. The impression I got was that Lich is a band-aid until someone that fits the scheme comes in. The rest seem unlikely, or downright mediocre. (I still can't wrap my head around Ribs being a starting center, even with his playing time last season.)

 

It would be nice if the Skins can have a stud at every spot on the Oline, but the team had too many other needs to use a 1st round pick on a center when the Oline is already darn good and there are a plethora of candidates to play center.  Lich may indeed be nearing the end of his career, but Long showed that he can play center.  While LeRib may not excite you, he was certainly at least adequate at center last season.  As to Reit, we shall see if he can play at the NFL level.

 

Further, I think the ceiling for Doctson would be far higher than Kelly.  And, I don't have any doubt McCloughan had Doctson rated higher than Kelly on his board.

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I respect your opinion but just disagree. I think it was a dick move to take advantage of his girlfriends murder to try and engineer where he goes, then he does not have the kind of integrity to be on this team. Even if it was his agents idea, he still hade to go along with it. Sorry, just the way I see it.

 

On the bright side it screwed him out of $Ms and he is buried on the depth chart on a young very good Oline. It's very unlikely he will ever make the money he would have had they pulled this garbage move.

 

I think it to be too cynical to think Collins took advantage of his girlfriend's murder to engineer which team he ends up with.  His announcement was that if he were picked below the 3rd round he would not sign.  Thus, if he were picked in the first three rounds, he would have no say as to where he landed.

 

I also don't see where his announcement cost him millions.  It is the timing of the murder that cost him to drop in the draft, not his announcement.

 

So far as I know, Collins has not been a "problem" for the Cowboys.  I think he would have been a fine addition to the Skins Oline.

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Bolded that because I'm not sure if that's conventional thinking that is no longer accurate or what to make of last season. Here is what I mean

 

 

 

    

Everyone else was not top 15 in terms of scoring points per game. That's a 3/3 split. The ties here to me indicate that you can be a time of possession hog and throw on every down. There isn't really an advantage to being a rushing first team like we think. Just because you lead the league in passing doesn't mean your time of possession for the season is affected any more then if you are leading the league in rushing helps it.

 

Thanks for this detailed study.  You could well be right that the old adage I cited is no longer true.  Maybe the best way to score a lot of points while also have a high time of possession is to complete a lot of short passes.

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Williams would be more a Snyder-type pick than Gurley.  In any case, much of our inability to run was not due to the RB.  Until certain injuries killed it, our run game was pretty strong (it also started hitting again late in the season).  We went with a QB who has never really lead a quality run game in the NFL and who got no arm respect for most of the season (that is part of the reason we killed so much with our TE game).  Hell, even our own coaches didn't trust him until mid-season (maybe it was just that DJ got healthy. Reed was showing he could do the job, Crowder was rising to a level we should not expect and our o-line was showing it could pass block).

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I think it to be too cynical to think Collins took advantage of his girlfriend's murder to engineer which team he ends up with.  His announcement was that if he were picked below the 3rd round he would not sign.  Thus, if he were picked in the first three rounds, he would have no say as to where he landed.

 

I also don't see where his announcement cost him millions.  It is the timing of the murder that cost him to drop in the draft, not his announcement.

 

So far as I know, Collins has not been a "problem" for the Cowboys.  I think he would have been a fine addition to the Skins Oline.

 

 

True, most of the money was lost due to the murder thing. So the $Ms is a bit much, but he lost money for sure.

 

But sorry, still not interested. I don't really care if he turns out to be a HOF lineman. What he did was a dick move. Sooner or later he will do something else self centered and stupid. We just don't need that kind of bull**** attitude in the locker room. Let the cow****s have him. He fits right in with all their criminals and cheaters.

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Could of have had JJ Watt but traded down & got Kerrigan( who while good is not NFL DPOTY year in year out)

 

This is why we can't go down this stupid rabbit hole. Nobody knew Watt was going to be anywhere near this good and he wasn't really mocked any higher than he went, either. 

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This is why we can't go down this stupid rabbit hole. Nobody knew Watt was going to be anywhere near this good and he wasn't really mocked any higher than he went, either.

Sorry but I loved Watt out of college and was pissed we missed on him. That said Kerrrigan has been a solid piece and I would feel a lot more saltier if we had passed Watt in the Jaguars slot.

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Sorry but I loved Watt out of college and was pissed we missed on him. That said Kerrrigan has been a solid piece and I would feel a lot more saltier if we had passed Watt in the Jaguars slot.

 

We all love guys we pass on every year. They don't all turn into perennial All-Pro's. Let's not act like wanting Watt was anything more than it was: a lucky "hit" for anyone who was right. Better prospects have busted, and worse prospects have prospered. There was no way to know, even if a few of you liked him a lot that year. We can play this game with any pick in any round of any year. 

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Definitely, I miss more than I hit and your point stands but I did think Watt would be this good. Best inside gut feeling I had about a college player since AP. FWIW I don't feel the same way about Gurley nor Scherff.

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