20/20 Hindsight game: What if we had drafted Todd Gurley last year?

[goskins10]

I don't think I missed your point--I just don't really agree with it.  I understand that you think Collins' bluff was a move that indicated some character flaw or at least his having a character that wouldn't be a good fit for a McCloughan team.  I think McClough along with all the other 31 GMs really got bluffed out.  I believe all the GMs thought anything in the top 3 rounds was too big a risk for Collins in view of the scant info on the murder at that time, and the GMs believe that Collins would really not sign and elect to go into the 2016 draft instead.  I believe this to be the case, because many GMs aren't that sensitive to the "team culture" issue.  Yet, they all elected to not even use a 7th rounder on Collins.  An opportunity lost for a smart GM to steal a top prospect for very little risk.

 

Hey, I hope Austin Reiter turns out to be a solid starter.  But, I would still rather have Lael Collins instead.  Also, if memory serves, there were some other 6th-7th rounders for the Skins that year that didn't make the roster or practice squad.

 

 

So 32 GMs are so dumb of gullible of both, they just got duped by a really smart player? If you really believe that then OK. I just do not buy it at all. I think they saw the same red flag I see. You call it a smart move I call it a dumb move to waste a pick there. Sorry I think you are completely wrong about GMs not caring about team culture. That's one of their primary jobs! It's the one thing Scot has been preaching since day one!

 

Sorry, not going to convince me Collins would have been worth a draft pick. We will just have to agree to disagree.

 

 

If you are talking 2014, then yes but who cares about that draft. We are taking about 2015 which was my point to someone bringing up a 2014 drafted TE in the conversation about Collins who was not even in that draft and we had a different GM. Rieter was the only 7th rd pick and he was on the practice squad last year.

 

Our 6th rd picks in 2015 were:

--> Kyshoen Jarrett - As a rookie he had 58 tackles, 4 pass deflections and a forced fumble before getting seriously injured the last game of the season.

--> Tevin Mitchell - He was on his way to the practice squad until the Colts picked him up off injury/waivers - kind of breaking an unwritten rule, but they clearly liked him. He is still on their team.

--> Evan Spencer - Was on his way to making the team - at least the practice squad but he too was injured. He is with Tampa Bay now.

 

So they would have all been on the team if it were not for injury. So yes they are not on the team, but not because they couldn't make the team. All are still in the NFL. You can't predict injury.

[Conn]

Yes, the pre-draft scuttlebutt was that Houston wanted a speedy WR and Coleman or Fuller was their top priority.  But, there is no way I would trust rumors.  I think, and I hope, McCloughan was smart enough to get assurance from the Texans as to whom they would select with the No. 21 pick or they would not pick Doctson.  Otherwise, I would not have made that trade.  A 6th round pick to me is not worth the gamble that the trade could cause you to lose the top guy on your board.

 

There is the companion question why Houston would use a 6th round pick to move up one spot.  Did not the Texans know that Wash was not interested in a pure speed guy?  Or, did McCloughan bluff out Houston by implying that he may be interested in Fuller?  With Coleman already gone, the Texans apparently panicked.

 

I gave you the answer to your companion question in the post you quoted. They wanted to pay a little extra to make sure that the Vikes and Bengals didn't have a chance to swoop in and trade with us during the time we had left on the clock.

[Stefanskins]

Yes, my memory is nowhere what it used to be.  Someone else has already pointed out my mix-up.  But Leonard Wms instead of Scherff is still a legitimate question--especially if McCloughan would call Lael Collins' bluff and draft him with a low-round pick.

my memory ain't either brother...and it was never anything to write home about lol....however, I remember the hogs...I also remember all of the qbs, rbs and wrs who had good to great success behind that ever present oline of ours....I'm of the mindset that when building this team, or any fball team, start with the oline...inside out...hopefully Reiter can become the keystone...

 

 

/and the character of a team is extremely important, both to sustain a winner and to the  loyalty of a fanbase...Gibbs' teams, Allen's and Lombardi's...all had great character..the "bad boy" teams never seem to have any real or sustained success...except for the 70s/early 80s Raiders...

[Conn]

You could say that if a couple of those Gibbs teams existed now, they'd be considered the "bad guys". The 24/7 media cycle and social media has raised the bar quite a bit. A lot of our less PC SB-era players would be a little less lovable in 2016. Arguably.

[TheGreek1973]

I don't have an issue with Scott not taking a flyer on Collins, in fact when you have a player saying do this or else,  no way I want him on our team.  The only issue have had with Scott's picks was this year when Billings was there for us but we didn't take him, in fact we traded out of the 4th completely. Again we have to trust our GM because he has proven to be much smarter than all of us put together, still I would have spend that 4th round pick on Billings even though he suppose to be only a two down kind of guy.  Seriously when the team's D has its major issue stopping the running game, you spend that 4th round pick on a top 3 run stuffer prospect.  So we will see.

[goskins10]

I don't have an issue with Scott not taking a flyer on Collins, in fact when you have a player saying do this or else,  no way I want him on our team.  The only issue have had with Scott's picks was this year when Billings was there for us but we didn't take him, in fact we traded out of the 4th completely. Again we have to trust our GM because he has proven to be much smarter than all of us put together, still I would have spend that 4th round pick on Billings even though he suppose to be only a two down kind of guy.  Seriously when the team's D has its major issue stopping the running game, you spend that 4th round pick on a top 3 run stuffer prospect.  So we will see.

 

 

There is a difference between having a problem with him making the pick if he had - which I would have trusted that he had vetted him properly and been ok with it - and calling it a mistake and faulting him for not taking him with a late round pick. He knows what he is doing much better than us. I trust his judgment.

 

Matt Iaonnidis in the 5th will have a better career than Collins. You can't have 2 down guys anymore. That's why pot roast is gone. Against GB, every time he was in they went to no-huddle. He was useless. Ioannidis will be able to stay on the field all 3 downs if they go no-huddle. This guy is a baller.

[HanburgerBum]

So 32 GMs are so dumb of gullible of both, they just got duped by a really smart player? If you really believe that then OK. I just do not buy it at all. I think they saw the same red flag I see. You call it a smart move I call it a dumb move to waste a pick there. Sorry I think you are completely wrong about GMs not caring about team culture. That's one of their primary jobs! It's the one thing Scot has been preaching since day one!

 

Sorry, not going to convince me Collins would have been worth a draft pick. We will just have to agree to disagree.

 

 

If you are talking 2014, then yes but who cares about that draft. We are taking about 2015 which was my point to someone bringing up a 2014 drafted TE in the conversation about Collins who was not even in that draft and we had a different GM. Rieter was the only 7th rd pick and he was on the practice squad last year.

 

Our 6th rd picks in 2015 were:

--> Kyshoen Jarrett - As a rookie he had 58 tackles, 4 pass deflections and a forced fumble before getting seriously injured the last game of the season.

--> Tevin Mitchell - He was on his way to the practice squad until the Colts picked him up off injury/waivers - kind of breaking an unwritten rule, but they clearly liked him. He is still on their team.

--> Evan Spencer - Was on his way to making the team - at least the practice squad but he too was injured. He is with Tampa Bay now.

 

So they would have all been on the team if it were not for injury. So yes they are not on the team, but not because they couldn't make the team. All are still in the NFL. You can't predict injury.

 

Dallas obviously did not regard Collins to be "character" problem.  And, since the Cowboys ended up paying him substantially more than a undrafted FA would normally receive, there clearly was competition to sign Collins.  That would indicate there were other teams that did not regard him to be a "character" problem.  So, yes, at least a bunch of GMs got bluffed out by Collins when they took his word that he wouldn't sign if drafted below round 3.

 

To me, there is not much difference between a 7th rounder and a undrafted FA in terms of cost/risk.  Why would McCloughan draft a WR like Evan Spencer when the roster already had DJax, Garcon, Grant, Roberts--plus Crowder in an earlier round?  Even if Spencer had stayed healthy, he wouldn't have made the Redskins team.  That he made another team's roster is irrelevant, because that doesn't do the Skins any good.  On the other hand, there is no question Collins would have made the Redskins and likely challenged for a starting spot by now.

 

Of course, an argument can be made that the 7th rounder used for Austin Reiters (instead of the 7th rounder used for Spencer) may have been the one that would have been used for Collins.  To me, Collins is a better pick than Reiters.

[Koolblue13]

Billings is a fat LBer that was wildly over valued on this board, because we perceive a need for a NT, despite what all of our coaches say.

[goskins10]

Dallas obviously did not regard Collins to be "character" problem.  And, since the Cowboys ended up paying him substantially more than a undrafted FA would normally receive, there clearly was competition to sign Collins.  That would indicate there were other teams that did not regard him to be a "character" problem.  So, yes, at least a bunch of GMs got bluffed out by Collins when they took his word that he wouldn't sign if drafted below round 3.

 

To me, there is not much difference between a 7th rounder and a undrafted FA in terms of cost/risk.  Why would McCloughan draft a WR like Evan Spencer when the roster already had DJax, Garcon, Grant, Roberts--plus Crowder in an earlier round?  Even if Spencer had stayed healthy, he wouldn't have made the Redskins team.  That he made another team's roster is irrelevant, because that doesn't do the Skins any good.  On the other hand, there is no question Collins would have made the Redskins and likely challenged for a starting spot by now.

 

Of course, an argument can be made that the 7th rounder used for Austin Reiters (instead of the 7th rounder used for Spencer) may have been the one that would have been used for Collins.  To me, Collins is a better pick than Reiters.

 

 

I guess you missed the agree to disagree. I respect your right to your opinion I just think it's completely wrong - as you do mine. It's Ok to disagree. If everyone agreed an anything what in the world would we need ES for??   

[HanburgerBum]

There is a defense between having a problem with him making the pick if he had - which I would have trusted that he had vetted him properly and been ok with it - and calling it a mistake and faulting him for not taking him with a late round pick. He knows what he is doing much better than us. I trust his judgment.

 

Matt Iaonnidis in the 5th will have a better career than Collins. You can't have 2 down guys anymore. That's why pot roast is gone. Against GB, every time he was in they went to no-huddle. He was useless. Ioannidis will be able to stay on the field all 3 downs if they go no-huddle. This guy is a baller.

 

I presume you meant Iaonnidis would have a better career than Billings when you said "better career than Collins".  I tend to agree with that.  I think the guy McCloughan really wanted was Sheldon Rankins.  Once Rankins went to the Saints at No. 12, McCloughan probably thought there would not be much difference between the next DT taken in round 1 or round 5--given how deep the draft was at Dline.  So, passing on Billings and taking Iaonnidis was the smart thing to do.

my memory ain't either brother...and it was never anything to write home about lol....however, I remember the hogs...I also remember all of the qbs, rbs and wrs who had good to great success behind that ever present oline of ours....I'm of the mindset that when building this team, or any fball team, start with the oline...inside out...hopefully Reiter can become the keystone...

 

 

/and the character of a team is extremely important, both to sustain a winner and to the  loyalty of a fanbase...Gibbs' teams, Allen's and Lombardi's...all had great character..the "bad boy" teams never seem to have any real or sustained success...except for the 70s/early 80s Raiders...

 

I don't disagree that "character" is an important consideration.  I just disagreed that Collins had a "character" problem.

 

I do hope Reiters turns out to be a solid starter at some point.  That would be a huge "steal"--given his draft status.

[Conn]

Why in the ****ing world would you presume that because the Cowboys signed him, he must not have had character red flags? Half their front 7 will start the season on suspension, and that's AFTER they did not bring back/got rid of Greg Hardy and Joseph Randle.

The only thing you were right about in your post was that late round draft picks aren't much different from UDFA's. This is in fact true. Teams actually specifically target players that they want in camp, but that they think they'd have a low chance of signing as an UDFA, in this area of the draft.

[HanburgerBum]

I gave you the answer to your companion question in the post you quoted. They wanted to pay a little extra to make sure that the Vikes and Bengals didn't have a chance to swoop in and trade with us during the time we had left on the clock.

 

Yes, there was a real possibility of McCloughan trading with a team below Houston in the draft order, given his penchant for trading down to acquire extra picks.  Apparently, the Texans didn't know how highly McCloughan regarded Doctson.  In hind sight, it was very unlikely McCloughan would have traded much below Houston, since No. 21 was the spot that started a run on WRs and McCloughan rated Doctson the clear best player at that point.

 

I am guessing that McCloughan knew Minnesota at No. 23 was after a WR and the Vikings likely refused to give him assurance that they would not pick Doctson.  So, the only team McCloughan could have traded with would be Houston--assuming the Texans assured him that they would not pick Docton.

[clskinsfan]

I would have taken Williams over either of them. We will end up seeing how that works out in the end.

[Conn]

Nobody is posting the real, brutally honest answer to this thread: If we had drafted Gurley, we'd be just as happy with him as we are with Scherff, and talking ourselves into whatever OL pick-ups we had made since then. Cousins probably would still have broken out (though I'm not really interested in arguing about this), we'd just have a different strength and a different weakness. Either way we'd be happy, or we'd convince ourselves we were happy. Its what we do, and they're both very talented players. We absolutely wouldn't shut up about having the next elite RB in the NFL, and there would be endless debate between Gurley + our OL vs. Zeke + Cowboys OL.

[HanburgerBum]

Why in the ****ing world would you presume that because the Cowboys signed him, he must not have had character red flags? Half their front 7 will start the season on suspension, and that's AFTER they did not bring back/got rid of Greg Hardy and Joseph Randle.

The only thing you were right about in your post was that late round draft picks aren't much different from UDFA's. This is in fact true. Teams actually specifically target players that they want in camp, but that they think they'd have a low chance of signing as an UDFA, in this area of the draft.

 

I think different GMs have differing degrees of concern about red flags.  It is certainly possible that Dallas has a threshold of tolerance in that regard that is much higher than McCloughan's.  I myself don't think there was a character problem with Collins, since I know of nothing that would indicate any red flags with him.  In this regard, I do differ from some people (notably GoSkins) whether the bluff itself was a red flag.

 

While we are discussing red flags, doesn't Junior Galette carry some?  That didn't stop the Skins from pursuing him.  So, it isn't always black-and-white. 

 

The point about a 7th rounder I was trying to make is that it is typically not much more than a throw-away pick.  Very few of them make teams and become solid contributors.  So, using one to take a risk (e.g. on Collins) is justified. 

I guess you missed the agree to disagree. I respect your right to your opinion I just think it's completely wrong - as you do mine. It's Ok to disagree. If everyone agreed an anything what in the world would we need ES for??   

 

I certainly agree that the world would be a very boring place if everyone agreed all the time.

Nobody is posting the real, brutally honest answer to this thread: If we had drafted Gurley, we'd be just as happy with him as we are with Scherff, and talking ourselves into whatever OL pick-ups we had made since then. Cousins probably would still have broken out (though I'm not really interested in arguing about this), we'd just have a different strength and a different weakness. Either way we'd be happy, or we'd convince ourselves we were happy. Its what we do, and they're both very talented players. We absolutely wouldn't shut up about having the next elite RB in the NFL, and there would be endless debate between Gurley + our OL vs. Zeke + Cowboys OL.

 

Actually, I would not be happy if McCloughan used that pick on Gurley instead of a stud lineman.  The Skins were a rebuilding team in desperate need of revamping both the Oline and Dline.  Gurley would not have helped much--especially in protecting Cousins from the pass rush.  A RB is more of a luxury than a necessity nowadays.  Besides, it is a position that needs no seasoning.  As such, it should be among the last areas to address, not among the first.