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Advanced stats and our QBs, 2014 edition


Tsailand

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With Griffin

Without Griffin

 

I stand corrected.  It's a point in his favor, but I don't think it makes up for the difference in passing performance.

 

People called RG3's 13 point performance last week a "good" performance.  Sorry, but the point is to score games.  I would argue that Cousins against Arizona, with his 3 ints, had a better game than almost every game by RG3, except perhaps Minnesota.

 

I can't find DVOA and ANY/A stats broken down game-by-game.  So just QBR...

 

RG3

HOU  29.7

MIN  57.8

TB   12.9

SF    7.9

NYG  21.3

 

Cousins

JAX          93.7

PHI          78.5

NYG          13.9

SEA          49.4

ARI          19.7

TEN          15.2

 

McCoy

TEN          82.3

DAL          80.8

IND          26.7

STL           7.6

 

Remember, QBR goes from 0 to 100, and 50 is considered average.

 

We were terrible on 3rd downs with Cousins as well.

 

If you can find 3rd down efficiency stats broken down by QB, please post them.

 

I have to imagine they favor Cousins.

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One thing that I thought was interesting was that there is apparently a change in defensive philosophy when the three QBs are on the field.  I forget which analyst was mentioning it, but apparently D Coordinators blitz much more with Griffin in.  That could be because Griffin is more susceptible to pressure, but it also could be because teams didn't fear Colt's arm.

 

I'd also be curious to see if Cousins sack numbers would change at this point.  I think defenses have discovered after the bye just how dreadful our protection really is.  I think we've been seeing a different attack.

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Cousins on 3rd down overall and 3rd down & long

 

 

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT

 

DOWN = 3 OVERALL 29 52 273 55.8 5.25 37 0 3 4

46.4

 

3rd (or 4th) down and 9+ yards to go 7 19 38 36.8 2.00 28 0 1 4

23.4

 

 

RG3 on 3rd down overall and 3rd & long

 

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT

 

 

DOWN = 3 OVERALL 23 35 291 65.7 8.31 61 1 1 12 89.1

 

 

3rd (or 4th) down and 9+ yards to go 8 14 49 57.1 3.50 42 0 0 4 64.3

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You have to let Cousins work out those turnovers. That's how good QB's get through that s**t.

 

We all love Luck (and I do too)...he has 14 ints and 12 fumbles this year. That is 2 turnovers a game. Guess what he is also doing? Producing on offense. Guess who was producing on offense way better than Griffin and Mccoy? That would be Cousins

 

I agree...my biggest fear is that by the end of 2015 we won't have given Cousins a shot to work through turnovers. Manning, Elway, Aikman, etc. all had upside down TD/INT ratios in their first full seasons and worked through it. If it's something they struggled with, why would we expect Cousins to avoid those pitfalls? 

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RG3 is failing based on the scheme and play calling, not because he can't play......Brady and Manning would struggle in an offense that forced them to move.   

 

I would also rather have a QB who takes sacks; then a QB who's a turnover machine like Cousins

on the other side, the QB who threw the pick at least gave us a chance to score, vs the guy that loses yards and we punt ...  neither is great however the guy that tried to squeeze in that pass is more interesting (to me) than the guy that did not.  /shrugs

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I cry when he throws an interception as well. I'd roll with him though. He's the best QB on the team.

 

Ultimately, he is the best quarterback.  Plays fast.  Could be even better with a better offensive line.  Skins will rue the day the day they let go of Kirk.  Has the potential to be a prolific passer. Unless off course, we go all in for Kellen Moore.  Yes, I'm still on his tip.  Detroit just doesn't seem quite ready to let him go though.  Restricted free agent this summer.  Brilliant command of the qb position.  Has instincts you can't teach.  See's stuff before it happens.  50 - 3.  All loses by less than three points.  What has Boise been since he's left.  An after thought.

 

If Jay want's someone to take control of the qb position.  He would.  It's not always physical talent. Jay Cutler.  Can the guy play the position.  Can he read defenses.  Does he know where to go with the ball.  Is he a chain mover.   Or, is he just over rated.  McNabb II. 

 

I understand why we have to play Robert.   Trying to justify everything we gave up to get him.  No one wants to admit he could be a bust.  That's admitting to an epic failure as a franchise again.  We gave up the house.  He almost has to make it.  However, we are running out of time.

 

Of course, bust is relative.   He right now is not playing up to his draft status.  He just not consistent enough.  If he was a fifth round pick, he wouldn't even be playing now.  It would be Kirk.

 

He's not a rookie anymore.  Almost 35 starts now.   Bill Walsh said you usually know what you have in a quarterback after about 40 starts.  We are getting close.  Like Boz said, "He is the occasional playmaker at the qb position."  These two games are very important for him.   Hope the light starts coming on dude.

 

He clearly is the third best quarterback on the team.  The stats in this thread are bearing it out.  Most physical talent.  Yes.  But, as we are seeing, the quarterback position is such a cerebral, integrate and innate position to master at the NFL level. You are dealing with defensive masterminds that figure you out.  Take away your strenghts.

 

Robert has been figured out.   Now he has to adjust.  When he caught the league by surprise with the read, he had the advantage.   The league has caught up to the read.  The game clearly has not slowed down for him yet.  It's getting faster because he does not handle pressure well.  Kirk by far handles it the best.

 

Great thread.   We clearly have three quarterbacks that each have very different strenghs.  Colt really reminds me of Wilson.   He could be the qb for Seattle and they still would be good.  Not saying he is as good as Wilson, but he's in that genre.   Robert clearly needs to be developed as an NFL quarterback.  Gibbs would have sat him for his first two years!  LOL  He is the perfect physical specimen.  Why he went so high.  But again, this game is more mental, than just physical.  How fast do you process information and see the field.  The best do it in 2.5 seconds.

 

For Robert, time is running out.   I think Kirk is going to be a starter in this league.   He only has eight NFL starts.  He  needs a more Brady in him.  Cussin Brady LOL.

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Of course, bust is relative.   He right now is not playing up to his draft status.  He just not consistent enough.  If he was a fifth round pick, he wouldn't even be playing now.  It would be Kirk.

 

This is true.  Shows how bad our GM/owner's decision making is.

 

So today's game: Probably RG3's best of the season, and not just because we finally won with him as QB.  He did some good things out there, though he was far from perfect.

 

Passer rating: 81.8, less than his own 2014 season average of 89.8.  Passer rating is a crappy stat....

YPA: 9.57, obviously quite good

ANY/A: 6.40, if I calculated it correctly. For comparison, Russel Wilson's ANY/A this year is 6.39, 14th out of 34 ranked QBs.  So a solid performance.

QBR: Not available yet.  76.2.  Good, but plenty of QBs have good QBRs week-to-week.  Sanchez was a couple points higher, Whitehurst a couple points lower, and even poor Blake Bortles almost made it to 50 this week.

DVOA:  Updates on Tuesday.  Not available on a per-game basis, but it's safe to say his season ranking will improve.

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None of our other QBs win the game tonight.

 

Cousins and McCoy have each had two games this season with a better QBR.

 

Cousins' average ANY/A this year is better than RG3's ANYA for just this game.  McCoy's is a little lower, but he's probably had one or two games at least this good.

 

So the advanced stats (please note the thread title) say that our other two QBs are capable of games like this. 

 

If you want to argue the point without reference to stats, there are plenty of other QB threads (where people will point out to you that most of RG3's performance consisted of of two deep bombs to DJ, something our other two QBs have done themselves this season).

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I noticed that the basic QB rating stat says that RG3's games against Houston, Minnesota, and the Giants were better than his game against the Eagles this afternoon.  Which is clearly wrong, and just goes to show how flawed that rating system is.

 

QBR says this was his best game of the season, not close.  This matches what we saw on the field today.

 

I decided to go back and calculate ANY/A for each of RG3's games this season. 

HOU: 6.03

MIN: 6.06

TB:  2.55, utterly dreadful

SF:  3.21

NYG: 6.15. 

PHI: 6.40

 

So ANY/A agrees: this was his best game of the season.

 

 

 

(I am ignoring the games against Jacksonville and the Rams, obviously)

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QB rating is not a useful stat on a per game basis because the sample size is too low and biased by the opponent's defensive strategies and capabilities. It is a useful stat over a person's career because those two limitations are mitigated due to having a full gamut of opponents and situations.

QBR is useless in all situations because it's just a bunch of biased ESPN idiots assigning numbers to their opinions.

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