Corcaigh Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Doesn't negate the fact that a correction is long overdue. Looks like we'll put it off even longer. "a correction is long overdue" Markets go up and markets go down. But using words like "correction" as though it's a rational act is fanciful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Doesn't negate the fact that a correction is long overdue. Looks like we'll put it off even longer. Of course corrections will happen. No one is claiming it won't. The problem is that no one knows when it will happen and trying to time it silly. A few weeks ago 90% of all experts would have told you we were in the midst of a large correction and the market was going to continue to fall. Instead it went up rapidly 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 *Keep costs low, buy, hold, and rebalance. But rebalance with what? What bonds are attractive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyZeb Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 "a correction is long overdue" Markets go up and markets go down. But using words like "correction" as though it's a rational act is fanciful. So one can't have an opinion on the market's value based on fundamentals? Believing a market or an individual stock is overvalued or undervalued does not make you a market timer. Nowhere have I ever claimed to know what the market will do today, tomorrow, or any time in the future. If I did I wouldn't be talking to you I'd be sipping martinis on my yacht. Of course corrections will happen. No one is claiming it won't. The problem is that no one knows when it will happen and trying to time it silly. A few weeks ago 90% of all experts would have told you we were in the midst of a large correction and the market was going to continue to fall. Instead it went up rapidly 10%. Again, my comment appears to be taken wrong due to the thread we're in. I don't attempt to time the market and have never claimed it's possible. I just don't believe in the current value of the market and believe we're overdue for a reversion to the mean. When that happens is anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The market timing option gets overused in regards to Crazy Zeb's view...which I agree with BTW. I am a long time investor, I invest monthly via 401K contributions, monthly via stock purchases, and also a number of times over the year through dividend reinvestment's with stocks I hold. With that said if I was given $1,000,000 today, I wouldn't put it in the market at this price. I do believe the market is high, so I would "time" it given the amount of money involved with the assumption I could buy in later. If I was given $1,000 today, I wouldn't be opposed to throwing it in the market. I agree with the market timing premise, but having an opinion on the market price as a whole isn't wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 So one can't have an opinion on the market's value based on fundamentals? A "correction" suggests that there is something specific is out of whack which needs to be "corrected". What fundamentals are you referring to? If you look at forward P/E it's not particularly high. The Shiller PE, granted, is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Doesn't negate the fact that a correction is long overdue. Looks like we'll put it off even longer. The problem with this type of statement is that essentially you are setting yourself up for an "I told you so" moment whenever the market falls 10%, which we all know will happen at some point It's really nothing more than a passive aggressive commentary on current economic policy, and a vague one at that. If a correction is coming tell us when, specifically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The market timing option gets overused in regards to Crazy Zeb's view...which I agree with BTW. I am a long time investor, I invest monthly via 401K contributions, monthly via stock purchases, and also a number of times over the year through dividend reinvestment's with stocks I hold. With that said if I was given $1,000,000 today, I wouldn't put it in the market at this price. I do believe the market is high, so I would "time" it given the amount of money involved with the assumption I could buy in later. If I was given $1,000 today, I wouldn't be opposed to throwing it in the market. I agree with the market timing premise, but having an opinion on the market price as a hole isn't wrong. Agreed on all points. I've ramped up the amount I invest (weekly) and am sitting on cash, but not selling any stocks, just keeping a balance between index funds for small and large, domestic and international. I think the market is likely to drop significantly at some point but it may well increase by another 10%, 20% or more before that happens. I just have an issue with calling it a correction when it's as much random as rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyZeb Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The problem with this type of statement is that essentially you are setting yourself up for an "I told you so" moment whenever the market falls 10%, which we all know will happen at some point It's really nothing more than a passive aggressive commentary on current economic policy, and a vague one at that. If a correction is coming tell us when, specifically I disagree. In fact I was replying to a post about the drop in the market after the fact, thinking it was already underway. That's already been proven wrong. I have no idea when it will happen, and have no desire to say I told you so. Don't put me on "Team McD5" and pretend I'm him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I disagree. In fact I was replying to a post about the drop in the market after the fact, thinking it was already underway. That's already been proven wrong. I have no idea when it will happen, and have no desire to say I told you so. Don't put me on "Team McD5" and pretend I'm him. Can you play the mcd5 part for us in this thread, maybe just for a little while? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Can you play the mcd5 part for us in this thread, maybe just for a little while? Please? god I miss that man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I legitimately miss him. His talents are wasted talking to the six people at Omville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar78 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The market timing option gets overused in regards to Crazy Zeb's view...which I agree with BTW. I am a long time investor, I invest monthly via 401K contributions, monthly via stock purchases, and also a number of times over the year through dividend reinvestment's with stocks I hold. With that said if I was given $1,000,000 today, I wouldn't put it in the market at this price. I do believe the market is high, so I would "time" it given the amount of money involved with the assumption I could buy in later. If I was given $1,000 today, I wouldn't be opposed to throwing it in the market. I agree with the market timing premise, but having an opinion on the market price as a hole isn't wrong. Dollar cost averaging. Over time, feed that 1M into the market in small intervals. Not necessarily saying this to you but just as a general statement. It'd be really funny if McD5 hit it big with his system, cashed out and bought an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 China real estate is very scary. What does this even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Now, on the topic of the market, in general? Have to confess, my gut says we've been inflating this bubble for years, now. I mean, I think me portfolio has doubled in the last year and a half. Obviously, neither the economy in general, nor Disney Corporation, has doubled in value in the last year and a half. Gut says I'm sitting on one heck of a bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 P/E ratios would argue that the broader market is nothing like a bubble. Depending on how you calculate it it's either consistent with averages or somewhat higher. But nothing like the dot com era Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 what's ya dollar worth? What does this even mean? set to crash,but with China normal rules don't apply......the impact of the other markets on ours on the other hand do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Can you play the mcd5 part for us in this thread, maybe just for a little while? Please? We definitely need an McD5 for this thread, looks like twa is stepping up to the plate...time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We definitely need an McD5 for this thread, looks like twa is stepping up to the plate...time will tell. not a market guy,which is why people talk to me. ....or are those the voices in my head but since ya'll seem bored http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/newsflash-fed-isnt-stopping-qe?utm_content=bufferaf70d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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