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**official 2013/2014 Winter Weather Thread**


Chew

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Can you explain the difference for a noobie?

The GFS and Euro are more longer range models. The NAM is shorter range. This close to an event though, the NAM becomes pretty much just as good a guide (that's really what the models are, a guide) as the others. 

 

Another very good run with the GFS (if you like winter.) Even DCA gets about 3-4 inches of snow. 15 hours total of frozen precip.

It was also much more aggressive with Tuesday's second wave. Another 3-4 inches of all snow. 

Looking further down the line, Thursday there's going to be a clipper. Some runs have a few flurries, some just cloudy. Latest GFS was just cloudy, dry. The next threat would be next weekend, every run that I remember so far has been another sloppy rain/snow mix. 

 

 

FYI, 36 degrees here now, and I hear sleet mixing in with this rain. Precip is looks to end soon, so I don't think we'll see a complete change over. 

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Ok guys I need approximately what we will get for game and drive back to Leesburg tomorrow help please. We are all seeing different predictions.

This could really suck for anyone leaving FedEx after the game. Especially going back to Leesburg. If its me, I'm sitting this one out.

Beginning of the game will probably be snow/sleet, end of the game might be freezing rain or close to it.

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The Richmond area forecast is degrading rapidly...or am I wrong?

they are although they never really jumped on board to begin with locally, they never seem to pay attention and then once it gets ere they start upping everything. Never seen such a clueless bunch. From what I'm reading and seeing though, Richmond and the western areas of henrico are still in play for significant icing
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Okay so if you're looking at something for next week, GFS and Euro are the way to go, but the closer it doesn't matter? Or does NAM have an advantage there? Just seems like NAM wouldn't make sense to even use, but again, that's coming from someone who knows nothing.

Like he said, the NAM is a close range model. It is better at detecting intricacies within a storm. It is pretty good inside of 3 days, but outside of that it will conjure up some BS alot of the time. EURO and GFS have failed hard before, but they can alert you 7 days out of something potentially threatening.

These models detect and dissect the weather, then run it in a simulation a bunch of times (don't know the exact amount, 100 maybe?). Then it takes the average path of the weather system from those 100 simulations, and wala, you have your "run" of the model. There are four runs a day, every 6 hours. The 00z run is the one that weather geeks pay attention to the most. I admittedly forget why, maybe someone can help me out. Perhaps because the Satellite is directly above the U.S. at that point? The 00z model runs occur at night. I remember staying up for the EURO runs at 1 A.M.

Right now snow I've seen forecasters calling for 1 inch up to 5 inches for the metro area. So bet money that we get either NONE or 6+. All kidding aside, the threat of ice is still very real. Better to be safe than sorry.

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Okay thanks that helps out a lot actually.

What are the maps showing right now for weather. I know it's hard to say it will or won't happen, but weather people always try to cover themselves, which I understand for obvious reasons.

I was still looking at a couple inches as of now? Or more ice than snow?

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A 1/4 inch of ice is worse for power lines and tree branches than probably 8 inches of snow. The National Weather Service has the area at 1-2 inches of snow, but in the past they've changed their totals as storm time approached, and have flat out been wrong before. Nonetheless, they have DC area under a winter weather advisory, and are expected to change it to a winter storm warning tonight. Ice storm warnings should be going up as well.

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