Election 16: Donald Trumps wins Presidency. God Help us all!

[mike42]

Voters best wise up and pull for the one that can unite this country back to way it was during the Clinton or Reagan years, where compromise had meaning. 

 

Then again, there is still people out there that would run through a wall for Obama.

[Bliz]

Voters best wise up and pull for the one that can unite this country back to way it was during the Clinton or Reagan years, where compromise had meaning. 

 

Then again, there is still people out there that would run through a wall for Obama.

 

If you have a particular person in mind, I can't begin to imagine who it is.

 

I don't think there's any going back. 

 

And I'm not sure the country was really THAT united anyway.  In an historically, laughably inaccurate prediction, circa 2008 I said, re Obama's chances of succeeding as a uniter, "It's possible.  Surely the right can't hate Obama as much as they hated Clinton..."  He was just despised, and the only things that united the country were the feel-good combination of peacetime and skyrocketing economy, and, temporarily at least, the Republican overreach on the impeachment.

 

I was 11 when Reagan left office, so can't speak to unity then.

[twa]

You got to remember there were endless witch hunts during the Clinton Administration. 

 

Him and Cosby should start a support group

 

back on topic via the Hill

 

Zogby said.

"A very prominent conservative Republican consultant called me last night and said that he spoke to Ann Romney over the weekend and Ann said if Mitt runs, he will run as the first divorced Mormon candidate for the president of the United States," Zogby said.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.Newsmax.com/Politics/republicans-polls/2015/01/13/id/618393/#ixzz3OoFqXFSp 

Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!

[Bliz]

Him and Cosby should start a support group

 

back on topic via the Hill

 

Zogby said.

"A very prominent conservative Republican consultant called me last night and said that he spoke to Ann Romney over the weekend and Ann said if Mitt runs, he will run as the first divorced Mormon candidate for the president of the United States," Zogby said.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.Newsmax.com/Politics/republicans-polls/2015/01/13/id/618393/#ixzz3OoFqXFSp 

Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!

 

Hm.  That's completely at odds with what is being reported elsewhere.

 

Ann Romney, once cool to the idea, shifted over the past few months and is now encouraging her husband to run again, a person close to the family said. Romney’s oldest son, Tagg, has also been encouraging Romney to run for several months. Romney’s other sons have mixed views, but all have said they would be supportive if he decides to get in the race, the person close to the family said.

 

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/01/14/private-mitt-romney-starting-outline-rationale-for-third-presidential-campaign/QoYvBak5C4tvaxpezuNbLM/story.html?s_campaign=email_BG_TodaysHeadline

[mcsluggo]

this is a wide open field.   how this sorts out to an eventual candidate will be an interesting case study (after the fact).   Will the healthy debate of a wide open field lead to a centralization (at least within the party spectrum) of ideas, or ... will it just be an ugly slug-fest?

[Larry]

this is a wide open field.   how this sorts out to an eventual candidate will be an interesting case study (after the fact).   Will the healthy debate of a wide open field lead to a centralization (at least within the party spectrum) of ideas, or ... will it just be an ugly slug-fest?

History says . . .

[mcsluggo]

it is always an ugly slugfest DURING the campaigns.... 

 

... but what what sort of cake is baked in that mess? (what emerges AFTER the slugfest?)

 

 

in 1992 and 2008 the the Democratic primaries were wide open... but its hard to argue that the democratic party or teh democratic party message was "harmed" by the primary process in those cases, and i suppose the same holds true for the GOP in 2000

[twa]

if a large group of moderates run like they are talking it will probably shift the discussion/tone, on the other hand it can dilute that base by dividing votes in the primary.

if a single more conservative option can gain consensus it might be problematic for them.

 

but I don't see Jeb,Romney,Christie and another establishment/moderate (Rubio ect) all running

 

I figure Rand is in,and Perry will likely try again,Carson likely.........wild cards such as Walker,Kasich,Jihndal might make it interesting

[tshile]

Voters best wise up and pull for the one that can unite this country back to way it was during the Clinton or Reagan years, where compromise had meaning. 

 

Then again, there is still people out there that would run through a wall for Obama.

 

We need leadership.

 

The way the table is currently set, unfortunately I don't see that being one of the dominate issues. I expect a repeat of 2008/2012, with the names changed.

 

It's a shame.

 

It would also be nice if we could get a voter participation rate higher than Afghanistan. Their voters are under direct threat from terrorists to bomb/shoot at polling booths, but they show up. What's our excuse?

[mcsluggo]

 

 

It would also be nice if we could get a voter participation rate higher than Afghanistan. Their voters are under direct threat from terrorists to bomb/shoot at polling booths, but they show up. What's our excuse?

 

... when i first got my ColecoVision I played with it all the damned time.  Now, I've had it for a few decades, it rarely makes it out of the box.

[drtdrums]

We need leadership.

The way the table is currently set, unfortunately I don't see that being one of the dominate issues. I expect a repeat of 2008/2012, with the names changed.

It's a shame.

It would also be nice if we could get a voter participation rate higher than Afghanistan. Their voters are under direct threat from terrorists to bomb/shoot at polling booths, but they show up. What's our excuse?

The perception, real or not, that one's vote doesn't matter.

The American political system works pretty well for the entitlement groups, the wealthy, and government employees.

Not quite so much for middle class joes in the private sector who lose half their income to taxes. If you are above the entitlement line but not an owner or investor, you get comparatively little in return for your input.

[tshile]

... when i first got my ColecoVision I played with it all the damned time.  Now, I've had it for a few decades, it rarely makes it out of the box.

 

you're equating having a say in your government to owning a piece of technology that becomes outdated quickly?

[s0crates]

We need leadership.

The way the table is currently set, unfortunately I don't see that being one of the dominate issues. I expect a repeat of 2008/2012, with the names changed.

It's a shame.

It would also be nice if we could get a voter participation rate higher than Afghanistan. Their voters are under direct threat from terrorists to bomb/shoot at polling booths, but they show up. What's our excuse?

I think low voter turnout can be attributed as much to a feeling of impotence as to apathy. Many voters just don't feel their votes count.

When you consider that we might be facing another Bush v Clinton election, you can start to see why people might feel that way. Our "democratic" process is a joke. Our elections are rigged by the big money and restricted by two party ideological entrenchment. For example, voters who want to end the military-corporate-banking-industrial-intelligence complex (and there are more of us than you might think) have no options.

Consider also the youth who turned out in droves for Obama in 2008. Where have they gone? I think they're deeply disillusioned that they didn't get what they voted for.

Maybe it isn't that we don't care, maybe we just see that participating in this broken system is useless. Many of the people feel they have no real power, and who can blame them?

[mcsluggo]

you're equating having a say in your government to owning a piece of technology that becomes outdated quickly?

 

allegorically..?

yes

 

we (the royal "we") are used to having the vote, and no longer cherish it as much

[tshile]

I think low voter turnout can be attributed as much to a feeling of impotence as to apathy. Many voters just don't feel their votes count.

When you consider that we might be facing another Bush v Clinton election, you can start to see why people might feel that way. Our "democratic" process is a joke. For example, voters who want to end the military corporate industrial intelligence complex have no options. Our elections are rigged by the big money and restricted by two party ideological entrenchment.

Consider also the youth who turned out in droves for Obama in 2008. Where have they gone? I think they're deeply disillusioned that they didn't get what they voted for.

Maybe it isn't that we don't care, maybe we just see that participating in this broken system is useless. Many of the people feel they have no real power, and who can blame them?

 

I get this line of thinking a lot when discussing the issue.

 

It takes 10% to a 3rd party to guarantee they have a presence in the debates for the next general election. we had ~55% voter turn out in 2012. There are plenty of people not voting that could go vote for a 3rd party in hopes for variety next time.

 

And by not voting you're letting all the extremes' voices grow in their share towards the actual results.

 

There's a lot to **** about with our democracy. Not voting solves exactly 0 from those problems. It's a lame excuse from people that are too lazy to dedicated one night a year (not even every year...) to go throw a vote at the people running their governments (local/state/fed.)

 

So tired of hearing people say those things as if it justifies not participating in the process. They've become part of the problem they claim to loathe, but aren't smart enough to understand that.

 

*** using the general you here, i have no idea if you do/don't vote and when

[s0crates]

I do vote (and try to persuade others to vote) for exactly those reasons. I've even cast a few votes for Mickey Mouse over the years.

Speaking of protest votes and Mickey, this might be of interest: http://prospect.org/article/if-you-give-mouse-vote

I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't mistake feelings of impotence for not caring when assessing the causes of low voter turnout.

[The Evil Genius]

Donald Trump is giving considerable thought to running.

 

Nothing says GOP like this loon fronting your party.

 

 

[drtdrums]

I know exactly zero conservatives or GOPers that think Trump is anything but a clown. I'm not saying they don't exist, just that in my two "circles" (blue state Michigan/Wisconsin "smart set" republicans and North Carolina Tea Party types), Trump is the last guy they'd pick in a primary.

And those two groups agree on almost nothing.

[Larry]

Trump does not represent the GOP.

He represents attention whores.

[twa]

Trump does not represent the GOP.

He represents attention whores.

 

but think of the stimulus spending he could add trying to get more attention.

[The Evil Genius]

I know exactly zero conservatives or GOPers that think Trump is anything but a clown. 

 

To be honest, they say the same thing about Limbaugh after he makes the outrageous claims he's known for. And yet...

 

Again, Trump has no chance. But it's going to be really funny to see him garner some vote amongst the GOPers when the primary's start.

[twa]

no bump for the Romminator bowing out?

 

LOL

[88Comrade2000]

no bump for the Romminator bowing out?

 

LOL

He made a deal with either Bush or Christie, whom is supposedly having dinner with tonight.

 

Scott Walker is still my dark horse candidate for 2016.

[88Comrade2000]

Well, it's 3/1.  By this time next year, we will have had the Iowa and Neveda caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. I think 3/1/16 will be one of those Super Tuesday primaries with alot of states on both sides.

 

CPAC 2015 just wrapped up and Rand Paul won the straw poll again.

 

 

As we head full steam into campaign 2016, my early thoughts on probable candidates.

 

Using Larry Sabato's write up  as a guide:

 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

 

 

Republicans

 

At some point, there could be over 20 candidates:

 

1.  Jeb Bush -  No doubt, he can raise money. Even if he loses the early primaries/caucuses; he can still proceed forward because he will have the money to do.  The favorite of the establishment and early favorite to be the nominee. Think is, he is going to against the party's base on 2 issues: immigration and Common Core.  Also, the being the third Bush; hurts him in the Republican primaries and in a general election.  My gut says, he will not be the nominee and will be one of the biggest flops of the campaign.

 

2.  Scott Walker -  My early favorite to be the nominee. Yes, he's no longer a dark horse. He's had a so-so debut but I do think he has the best chance of uniting all wings of the Republican party and would give Hillary a run for her money.  Is he ready for primetime though?  We will have to see.

 

3.  Marco Rubio - A male himbo. Yes, he could be the nominee if they don't give it to Walker.  I think he would lose.  The only reason Republicans like him is because he is a young Cuban and they think he will give them the hispanic vote and give them the election.  He's already shown that he will be nothing more than a pandering puppet to the right wing and cave their wishes. Under the blistering attack in the general election; he will lose.  Go run for governor of Florida and get a little executive experience and be your own man first; instead of cowering to the Republican right when they opposes your stance on a issue.

 

4.  Chris Christie - Load mouth bully isn't going anywhere. I'm sure he will probably run but I think he will done and out of the race by 3/1.

 

5.  Rand Paul - I think with Scott Walker in the race; Rand Paul will not win some caucuses like he could.  He will probably be around a little while anyway, getting the libertarian vote on in the Republican race but I don't see him winning anything. Just gathering some delegates.  He could make a little noise as a third party candidate; maybe peeling enough votes to tip a close election to Hillary in a 3 way race.

 

6.  Ted Cruz - I really don't see him going that far.  He will make some comments that will excite the tea party base but I don't think it will translate to victories. If Texas holds their primary early; that's how long he will be in the race.

 

7.  Mike Huckabee - he will probably get some of the religious right vote but I don't see him going far.

 

8.  Ben Carson - I really don't see him running him. He may excite the tea party faithful but in a race with several experienced candidates; he wouldn't get far.  Just be could for some early debates and that's it.

 

9.  Rick Santorum - Like Larry said, social conservatives will have better sexier options.  He is wasting his time, if he decides to run.

 

10.  John Kasich - Maybe a solid veep candidate that would help tilt Ohio to the Republican nominee. That's all I see from my one time congressman.

 

11.  Mike Pence - Don't enough about him but he's probably better off staying as governor and then trying in 2020 or 2024.

 

12.  Rick Perry -  Indictment not a good thing to have. He bomb last time, I don't see people giving him another shot.

 

13.  Bobby Jindal -  He might run, but he isn't going anywhere. Maybe, will get consideration for Veep. I still don't see a man with the skin color he has winning a Republican primary race.  Democrat, maybe but not Republican.

 

14. Rick Snyder- I know nothing about this man, he'd be wasting his time.

 

15. Lindsay Graham- Seroiusly, does he think he has a shot?  He doesn't have to worry about foreign policy not being discussed. Foreign policy will be a big issue in the 2016 campaign.

 

16. Carly Fiorina - She couldn't win a senate seat and she thinks she can win a Republican nomination.  Nothing more than a vanity candidate who probably auditioning for a job in a potential Republican adminstration.

 

17. George Pataki - If he wanted to run, his time was 2008 or 2012.  He would go nowhere in today's Republican party. Veep candidate???

 

18. John Bolton - Why?  Go away.

 

The other people Larry mentions: Peter King, Jim Gilmore, Bob Ehrlich aren't running; so no need to mention them.

 

19. Donald Trump- If he actually runs, it will be nothing more than a sideshow.

 

My guess now, is that we have Bush vs the non-Bush candidate: Scott Walker or Marco Rubio and possiblely a third candidate that will ultimately battle it out but I think Scott Walker/Marco Rubio will be the nominee.  They the Republicans have set things up though; it is possible noone gets enough delegates.  I think winner takes all doesn't start until after mid-March 2016; so it's possible for many candidates to win hear and there.  My gut says  though by the end of April, Scott Walker or Marco Rubio will be the nominee.

Odds are my gut will be wrong also.

 

Democrats

 

1.  Potus #45- Hillary R. Clinton - 90% certain she is probably the Democratic nominee and about 55% certain she will be POTUS #45. I do think she can be beaten in the democratic primaries because they base is to the left of her and while some disagree with me; I think Elizabeth Warren would beat her straight up.

 

2.  Elizabeth Warren - If she runs, she can win the nomination but would most likely lose the Presidency to the Republican candidate.  I don't think she will run though.

 

3.  Joe Biden- He might as well, save himself the trouble and not run.  He will not go far.

 

4.  Jim Webb- He's not liberal and that's not good for a Democrat.  Maybe eying to be Hillary's veep?

 

5.  Bernie Sanders - He's just be running to push his issues and not much more.

 

6.  Martin O' Malley - Maybe running to be Clinton's Veep, is all he will get.

 

Honestly, other than Bernie Sanders; I'm not sure anyone will mount a serious challenge to Hillary.

 

My gut at the moment says Hillary wins the presidency and the only thing preventing her from winning it is if Elizabeth Warren runs or the economy tanks right before the election.  My gut says the Republicans; even with Scott Walker/Marco Rubio at the helm will come off as too extreme for the Presidential electorate to win the Presidency.  I expect turnout will be extremely high from both sides but the for Hillary will be more than the anti- Hillary vote. I do believe there is an opening for a third party candidate; who could actually finish ahead of the Republican candidate; depending on who the Republican nominee is.

[Kilmer17]

I predict a boring election.

Jeb v Hillary. And it comes down to fla,Ohio and Colorado again