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Election 16: Donald Trumps wins Presidency. God Help us all!

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

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@DCGoldPants

@DCGoldPants

Posted
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I think Clinton should spend the fall going in front of minorities and just talking in generals about equal rights/opportunities/etc. Those are the voters she'll really need. If the GOP is about building a wall and anti-immigration. She needs to go out there talk about a path to citizenship, equal pay and everything that will actually get her attacked more and more by the Cruz crowd.

 

Its not exciting. But its safe. 

 

I think her biggest mistake is acknowledging the GOP primary with those little disses on Bush or Trump or whoever when they say something about spending too much on women's healthcare. She doesn't need to do that. 

 

This isn't about liking her either. Its just strategy. 

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Hersh

Hersh

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More on the (very few) tax proposals from the various candidates. 

 

Tax Foundation:  Comparing the 2016 Presidential Tax Reform Proposals

 

Not much there, since it appears that so far, only four candidates have actually even made any tax proposals.  But they promise that they'll update the page as candidates make more promises. 

 

 

And a much longer look at Jeb's proposals

 

Tax Foundation:  Details and Analysis of Governor Jeb Bush’s Tax Plan

 

Now, note:  I use the Tax Foundation as a source, a lot.  But I use them because they reprint data on income taxes, that come from the IRS.  I don't really care if they have an agenda, when they're simply quoting what the IRS says. 

 

However, I will note that their analysis of Jeb's tax proposal 

 

1)  Says absolutely nothing about how to pay for it.

 

2)  And apparently uses their special economic model, to conclude that Jeb's plan will cause GDP to grow by 10%, a 7% increase in wages (which they explain by saying that lower taxes on wages will make Americans work more), and a 30% growth in capital investment. 

 

And I have to confess that I'm rather skeptical of proposals that tell me that "Well, I'm going to hand out huge tax cuts, without bothering to pay for them, but I've got this prediction that says they will lead to magical economic growth, which will fix everything". 

 

So, I'm not sure I buy all of their predictions.  But I still think it's worth reading.  (And they do include some of the "static modeling" impacts, too, which I assume are much harder to fudge.) 

 

It's too bad there isn't substantive debates going on cause his kind of plan is a disaster and is total nonsense. Yet it is not likely to get called out cause there isn't actual fiscal responsibility on the right these days.

 

At least one candidate on the left actually talks about paying for everything. Has Clinton released any kind of plan?

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mcsluggo

mcsluggo

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It's very strange.  If I was advising either of them, I'd be telling them to do the exact opposite of what they are currently doing.

 

If Trump is still going strong Nov 1, Jeb may have missed his chance.  But if he goes on the total offense now, he risks damaging his own status and thus opening up for Kasich or Rubio to be the savior.

 

Hillary has the sword of Biden hanging over her head.   So she cant really attack him yet, because he's not even running.  So she really has no choice but to play defense all the time.

 

Unless things go very strange.... Trump is a gift from heaven for Bush.   Trump has killed a bunch of the other contending loonies, without Bush having to try to get in a pissing match with the loonies (and move more loony to meet at the loony midpoint).  As the wannabe contenders roll off, the undecides will move more to Bush than to Trump (because, reasonably, the overall pool of people that would pull for him under ANY circumstance HAS to be capped...right?  I mean really... right!!?? he is a clown character out of some psychedelic cartoon.... right???).  

 

so once the crowd thins, and the GOP base has to choose between Trump and non-Trump, if Bush is still standing, he wins.  AND he never had to go dumbass-loony to woo the dumbass loonies... and is able to shift into non-primary mode relatively unscathed  (and frankly looking downright golden and presidential in comparison to the assclown he just defeated)

 

 

Bush should stay the course and act like he is campaigning against democrats already.  (and further reinforce this by disregarding the assclown blowhard, and treating him like the the poopy distraction that he is... )

 

 

 

on the other hand, the Cruzs' and Walkers'  of the world canNOT ignore trump.  They NEED the lunatic crowd that Trump is courting to have any chance.. hence... they are screwed without any KY or foreplay.

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mcsluggo

mcsluggo

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Yes. In theory.

But what happens if Trump never fades?

I think he will, but I thought he would have started by now.

 

you are a part of the broader GOP base, right?  

If you had a choice between Trump and anybody-but-Uday-Hussein  <<insert ANY name other than Trump and Uday here>> would you vote for Trump?  

 

right now Trump has 30% of the total GOP electorate polling for him.   SOME of those are just protesting (and wouldn't actually vote for him), but lets ignore them.  What % of the remaining 70% would never-vote-trump-no-matter-what?  

 

 

 

Carson...on the other hand... is unexplainable :)

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

I honestly don;t think Trump was serious.  He didn;t think he would/could win, and just wanted build up brand-Trump.   Now... ?  he has gotta be thinking whether or not to actually shoot for the win?   (and in his mind...would that entail actually building a plank?)

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Hersh

Hersh

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The thing about Trump, after he wins the GOP nomination, he will have no issues moving toward the center cause he doesn't care about being consistent. He could completely change his platform. Does anyone on here think he is as right wing as he portrays himself these days?

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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Carson...on the other hand... is unexplainable :)

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

I honestly don;t think Trump was serious.  He didn;t think he would/could win, and just wanted build up brand-Trump.   Now... ?  he has gotta be thinking whether or not to actually shoot for the win?   (and in his mind...would that entail actually building a plank?)

 

 

Carson is easily explainable.  I've been hearing about him before the 2012 elections.  Carson is appeals to the religious right - he has a GOD status with them. People have been want him to run for years.

 

 

Trump, I don't think was serious.  Now, that he's leading and has been leading; he thinks can win it all.

 

 

I still don't think he will win the nomination because I think alot of his support is reality TV show watchers.  I do think Trump could run as an independent and finish ahead of the Republican candidate.

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Larry

Larry

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At least one candidate on the left actually talks about paying for everything. Has Clinton released any kind of plan?

Now, I will point out,

While back, someone pointed out to me that Jeb actually endorsed a plan for saving Social Security that I've been proposing for maybe 10 years now. Specifically, raise the retirement age.

Whereas I read Bernie's plan. Which seems to consist of "double the minimum wage, and the resulting windfall in tax revenue will allow us to actually INCREASE Social Security".

And, while I am one of the very few people who actually believes that doubling the minimum wage would be good for the country, I think he's promising way too much, to go with it.

On the subject of SS, (a subject that I think is pretty important), I'm very sure that Jeb's plan will work, and not at all sure of Bernie's.

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visionary

visionary

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-tours-ferguson-says-race-isnt-the-issue_55f34c72e4b077ca094f3979?k0cw61or

Ben Carson Tours Ferguson, Says Race Isn't The Issue

 

Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson toured Ferguson, Missouri on Friday, looking into efforts to rebuild the riot-weary St. Louis suburb and offering advice on how to mend racial divisions in the United States.

 

Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon who has seen his popularity surge recently in opinion polls, visited with business owners, community leaders, clergy and others who have been working to heal Ferguson and the surrounding St. Louis area after months of sometimes violent protests.

 

Ferguson and surrounding communities were thrust into the national spotlight in August 2014 after a white Ferguson policeman shot and killed unarmed black teenager Michael Brown.

 

The killing exposed a deeply ingrained racial divide in the region and in many other parts of the country, and helped spur a national debate on police treatment of minorities.

 

On Friday, Carson, who is African-American, said he does not see racial issues as being as much of a problem for America as other social problems, including education inequities and a breakdown in values.

 

"Education is the great divide," Carson said. "Children need to understand that they have to get a good education."

 

He also said that mutual respect - across races and between police and civilians - should be a focus.

 

"We need to de-emphasize race and emphasize respect for each other," he said. "If we respect people, we can begin to understand them. Our strength is in our unity."

 

Carson said he was raised to respect the police and "never had any problem."

 

The candidate held a news conference and gave a speech at Republican activist Phyllis Schlafly's national Eagle Forum convention in St. Louis.

 

Carson also took the opportunity to underscore his anti-abortion position, saying that the "Black Lives Matter" movement that grew out of the Brown killing should include "black lives taken by abortion."

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Burgold

Burgold

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The thing about Trump, after he wins the GOP nomination, he will have no issues moving toward the center cause he doesn't care about being consistent. He could completely change his platform. Does anyone on here think he is as right wing as he portrays himself these days?

I think that the worst thing for the GOP possibly is that Trump is confirmation of everything independents and liberals think modern conservatism and republicanism is. It's loud, insulting, full of bad ideas, anti-women, anti-immigrant... you know everything FOX News stands for (which serves as a placeholder for the GOP)

 

The reason why Trump seems to have staying power is not that the crazies are flocking to him as much as he is FOX News Incarnate. He is O'Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh personified as a politician (except he has less political knowledge and gravitas than guys like O'Reilly)

 

They identify with him. He is what they have come to know, trust, and like. He is the reflection of the modern GOP. You may think I'm being glib... but he is Cruz, Ryan, Palin, and all the FOXites rolled up into a hate filled package. If Jeb beats him it will be because they think Jeb is more electable... just like they thought that Romney and McCain were more electable.

 

Thing is, they were more electable except to the base who felt deflated by these milquetoast non Conservative, RINO Republicans. They've let Trump linger for a long time. He may really become the face of the party. He's already their spirit.

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Larry

Larry

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The reason why Trump seems to have staying power is not that the crazies are flocking to him as much as he is FOX News Incarnate. He is O'Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh personified as a politician (except he has less political knowledge and gravitas than guys like O'Reilly)

 

They identify with him. He is what they have come to know, trust, and like. He is the reflection of the modern GOP. You may think I'm being glib... but he is Cruz, Ryan, Palin, and all the FOXites rolled up into a hate filled package. If Jeb beats him it will be because they think Jeb is more electable... just like they thought that Romney and McCain were more electable.

Question: Does the same reasoning ("this is what the base really wants, in their hearts") apply to Bernie?

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Burgold

Burgold

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Question: Does the same reasoning ("this is what the base really wants, in their hearts") apply to Bernie?

It actually may.

 

I strongly believe that the Republicans didn't want McCain or Romney. They thought they were electable, but didn't really represent what they wanted. That's why McCain got tied to Palin. He needed to be attached to a true Conservative. Same thing with Romney and Ryan. Over the last two election cycles in many respects the real republican candidate was the VP. The guy on the top of the ticket was just the poster boy.

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Hersh

Hersh

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Now, I will point out,

While back, someone pointed out to me that Jeb actually endorsed a plan for saving Social Security that I've been proposing for maybe 10 years now. Specifically, raise the retirement age.

Whereas I read Bernie's plan. Which seems to consist of "double the minimum wage, and the resulting windfall in tax revenue will allow us to actually INCREASE Social Security".

And, while I am one of the very few people who actually believes that doubling the minimum wage would be good for the country, I think he's promising way too much, to go with it.

On the subject of SS, (a subject that I think is pretty important), I'm very sure that Jeb's plan will work, and not at all sure of Bernie's.

 

I am thinking more of the aspect that we need to raise taxes to actual pay for stuff but I agree that Bernie goes too far. I don't know why they don't just lift the SS cap on wages. It stops at $100,000 or something around there? I don't get why that is.

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Hersh

Hersh

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I think that the worst thing for the GOP possibly is that Trump is confirmation of everything independents and liberals think modern conservatism and republicanism is. It's loud, insulting, full of bad ideas, anti-women, anti-immigrant... you know everything FOX News stands for (which serves as a placeholder for the GOP)

 

The reason why Trump seems to have staying power is not that the crazies are flocking to him as much as he is FOX News Incarnate. He is O'Reilly, Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh personified as a politician (except he has less political knowledge and gravitas than guys like O'Reilly)

 

They identify with him. He is what they have come to know, trust, and like. He is the reflection of the modern GOP. You may think I'm being glib... but he is Cruz, Ryan, Palin, and all the FOXites rolled up into a hate filled package. If Jeb beats him it will be because they think Jeb is more electable... just like they thought that Romney and McCain were more electable.

 

Thing is, they were more electable except to the base who felt deflated by these milquetoast non Conservative, RINO Republicans. They've let Trump linger for a long time. He may really become the face of the party. He's already their spirit.

 

That is well said. It is not at all what Trump actually says, it's how he says it. Similar to all those radio personalities.  

 

Bernie Sanders would be 80 when he left his first term.  Even if I was a socialist, I wouldn't want it.

 

 

Who cares if the person is 80 if their mind is sharp?

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