***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

[PeterMP]

I don't think Philly is going to be any hurry to move Noel.  They certainly aren't going to move him for a non-lottery pick any time soon.

 

Noel's jump shot was supposed to be highly improved, but that hasn't shown up yet, but it is also early, and they have had issues with their spacing due to injuries/the performance of other players.

 

It isn't an accident that they've come much closer to beating good teams (MN and Miami) now that Covington is back.  Some guards are still hurt.

 

They are going to wait to see if as people get better, and they have time to work on their spacing if the Noel/Okafor pairing works better.

 

If you have enough shooters, you can afford to have Okafor in the paint and Noel act as a cutter/high post player with a base line jump shoot.  Due to the injuries and poor shooting by others that hasn't plaid out yet.

 

Even if it doesn't play out, I wouldn't be surprised if they actually trade the (apparently) more valuable asset (i.e. Okafor).

 

Okafor's +/- is actually worse than Noel's and is easily worse than Noel's last year.  Okafor dictates the way the team has to play more than Noel and therefore impacts the team more and his skill set is not good enough to allow that to happen (i.e. you can't play fast with Okafor).

 

Especially as Okafor does not appear to be a really good low post passer (at least not yet).  He can get stats on his own, but he doesn't make anybody better on the offensive or defensive side of the ball.

 

But if they can find a team that values those individual stats, then I wouldn't be shocked if it is Okafor that is moves (that's essentially what the did with MCW/Noel).

 

(I didn't like the Okafor pick when they made it.  They should have tried to trade back and taken Mudiay.)

Edited November 24, 2015 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

I don't know, Okafor looks better than Noel. He looks like a worthy foundation piece and, frankly, Noel doesn't.

Philly is going to have to settle on some sort of roster construction. And fast. Sam Hinkie is not going to be allowed to keep losing like this for much longer. Embiid and MCW were busts for him, if Noel doesn't turn it around, then Hinkie's options are to move forward with Okafor and whatever he can get in the draft from here on out or be fired and replaced. Tanking can only be tolerated when the team gets something from it and has a plan to build from it.

And Philly is going to have to build an offense and the best way to do that if you're starting from scratch is to have a high volume scorer that can make his own hay. You can build an offense around Okafor. He has the individual creativity and skill to be a first option. If you trade him to keep Noel, you're still at square one.

[PeterMP]

I don't know, Okafor looks better than Noel. He looks like a worthy foundation piece and, frankly, Noel doesn't.

Philly is going to have to settle on some sort of roster construction. And fast. Sam Hinkie is not going to be allowed to keep losing like this for much longer. Embiid and MCW were busts for him, if Noel doesn't turn it around, then Hinkie's options are to move forward with Okafor and whatever he can get in the draft from here on out or be fired and replaced. Tanking can only be tolerated when the team gets something from it and has a plan to build from it.

And Philly is going to have to build an offense and the best way to do that if you're starting from scratch is to have a high volume scorer that can make his own hay. You can build an offense around Okafor. He has the individual creativity and skill to be a first option. If you trade him to keep Noel, you're still at square one.

 

Embiid has a been a bust (and I said before he got rehurt (when he was still expected to play this year)) that I wouldn't have picked him).

 

But you can't call MCW a bust.  He was an 11th pick in the draft in a bad year.  They got the Lakers #1 pick for him (top 3 protected this year).  Turning the 11th player in a bad draft around for what could be a 4th pick can't be considered a bust.

 

Hinkie played that 100% exactly right.

 

I'm not sure how much time is running out on Hinkie.  I don't know what his status with ownership is.  I like the concept of what he's trying to do, but have not been a big fan of some of the execution (the Embiid or Okafor picks).  

 

I don't think you can win a championship with Okafor has one of your top options.  He's limited, and he limits the rest of your team.

 

I don't think you can win a championship with Noel as your first option, but I think he gives you more flexibility to build around.  Offensively, he's always going to be an issue, but defensively you could pair him with lots of different types of players.  I think Okafor pairs poorly defensively and offensively with many other types of players (essentially anybody that benefits from playing up tempo).

 

I think Noel can pair well with somebody that wants to play up tempo.  I think he also does well with a good pick-and-roll player.

 

Maybe Okafor will become a better out of the post passer, but so far that hasn't shown up in the NBA.

 

But realistically, you've made my point.  The fact that Okafor looks better means somebody is likely to give more up for him, which means he's the better trade option.

 

I think in total, there isn't much of a difference between the 2 in terms of building a championship.  Okafor is clearly the better offensive player, but limits what my other pieces have to be.  Noel is the better defensive player and limits less what my other pieces have to be.

 

But others look at Okafor and declare he's  (significantly) better and so will give me more for him (and by better, realistically you mean scoring points, which ignores all of the other (harder to quantitate) aspects of the game.).  If they don't get it worked out and you have job security, the path forward is clear.

 

This actually gets to the idea of Brown considering Noel a core player.  Brown wants to play up tempo.  Noel fits that.  Okafor is an impediment to it.

Edited November 24, 2015 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

I meant that MCW was a bust in that it seemed like he was a foundation piece and then he didn't work out. Hinkie salvaged the situation well if he can get a high draft pick out of trading him, but the fundamental problem still remains: they haven't gotten foundation pieces. Their build can't move forward until they settle on a foundation player.

It's a lot harder to build a competent offense than defense in the NBA. That's why reliable volume scorers are the most valuable players in the game. And that's what Okafor can be. His skill level in the post is extremely advanced and Philly can run it's offense through him. And I'd expect him to become a decent post passer before I'd expect Noel to become a decent shooter that can command a defender in space.

Philly may not be able to run an up tempo offense through Okafor, but they also can't run a half court offense through Noel. And that's what you need to be able to do to score in crunch time and score in the playoffs. If you trade Okafor to keep Noel, Philly is left searching for a first option. That's way harder to find than a defensive specialist who is your fifth option on offense.

Also I disagree about Noel's defensive versatility being enough to make him more valuable than Okafor because Noel doesn't have the body to truly guard the C position. Okafor does and thus he has a true and obvious NBA position. Noel can guard forwards, but he doesn't have the ability to make them guard him.

I think the only way forward for Philly is to commit to building around Okafor. They're horrific because they've been wish-washy with their build and are just collecting talent with no actual plan. Once they finally settle on a plan, it's still going to take years for them to actually get good, so they need to pick a plan ASAP. And Okafor is their best option. They could do a lot worse than a 20 year old 270 pound blue chipper who projects to be a dominant low post scorer.

[Hersh]

Why on Earth would anyone trade away a 6'11, 19 year old averaging 18 and 8 in the NBA? Especially in favor or Nerlens Noel. If they did try to trade Okafor, the NBA should not only block it, but fine them a huge amount of money and begin the process of finding a new team owner along with forcing them to fire their GM.

 

Dreaming of some up-tempo offense to run like the Warriors is insane. Build around Okafor, adapt to his skill set, and get some veteran guards that can help space the floor.

 

They have lost 25 or 26 games in a row dating back to last year and it will take a few years if they committed to actually get good. That is a ridiculous amount of losing.

[PeterMP]

Why on Earth would anyone trade away a 6'11, 19 year old averaging 18 and 8 in the NBA? Especially in favor or Nerlens Noel. If they did try to trade Okafor, the NBA should not only block it, but fine them a huge amount of money and begin the process of finding a new team owner along with forcing them to fire their GM.

 

Well, I'd trade him because the combination of him and Noel don't seem to be working that well together (though as I said, I think you have to give it more time yet so I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade anybody), and I'd trade him over Noel because people tend to over estimate the importance of traditional box score counting stats.

 

Like you just you did in your post and so in comparison to Noel somebody will give me more than he's worth.

 

Generally, I think that people under estimate the importance of defense when thinking about basketball and over simplify the importance of a generational player in basketball.

 

(On that note, I've said that people that think Allen Iverson is a better SG than Sidney Moncrief don't know basketball.  AI was a great scorer, but Moncrief was a great defensive player.  AI wasn't even a great offensive player.  He was really good at one aspect of offense.  But people take AI because they over estimate the importance of scoring points.

 

If I had Moncrief and Iverson on the same team at comparable points in their career, I'd like Moncrief more, but in a trade, I suspect someobody would actually give me more for Iverson.  So if forced to trade one, I'd trade Iverson.)

 

Noel last year as a rookie was 14th in defensive WS, and he was even better in the 2nd half of the season.  In the 2nd half last year, he lead the NBA in steals and blocks.

 

He has a chance to be a generational (defensive) talent.  I don't think Okafor is going to be a generational (offensive) talent (the best offensive players of this generation are going to be people that can shoot and play up tempo basketball unless the league alters its rules to favor more low post play).  He might be a generational low post scorer, but that's a pretty limited thing and not worth keeping over a potential generational defensive player.

 

The fact of the matter is Noel has a better +/- ratio than Okafor right now.

 

But despite that, in a trade somebody is likely to give more for Okafor than Noel.  So if I have to pick, I'm going to trade the player that is going to bring more back.

 

If I was going to get the same for Noel as Okafor, the situation might be different.  But the key part is I suspect that somebody will actually give me more for Okafor.

 

Steve (and more generally) I think people are under estimating Noel's offensive ability.  He looks bad in combination with Okafor, but last spring (after the MCW trade) he was averaging double digit points at close to 50% and offensive ratings over 100.

 

He has utility as a cutter, in the open floor, and in pick and rolls with a good pick and roll guard and that all showed up last year after the Sixers traded MCW.

 

In terms of the Sixers being wishy-washy that's because they haven't gotten lucky in the lottery the last 2 years.  If they had slipped with the T-wolves in the last two drafts and had added Wiggins and KAT, nobody would be talking about the Sixers being wishy washy or there being issues with the rebuild.

Edited November 24, 2015 by PeterMP

[Hersh]

How many generational defensive big men are winning titles? More specifically, how many generational defensive big men with no offensive game to speak of are winning titles? And please stop telling us Noel has any offense in his game. He never has and a big shooting 42% is pretty terrible.

 

Chance are better that Okafor becomes a good passing big man with solid defense than Noel developing much of an offensive game.

 

Teams with high skill players are winning NBA championships. Okafor has a lot more skill and upside than Noel.

[Destino]

Noel isn't generational anything.  He's weak and thin and the only reason he appears well enough is because most teams don't have an offensively capable big man to expose him.  He's good and he's fast, but he's not going to set the world on fire.

[PeterMP]

How many generational defensive big men are winning titles? More specifically, how many generational defensive big men with no offensive game to speak of are winning titles? And please stop telling us Noel has any offense in his game. He never has and a big shooting 42% is pretty terrible.

 

Chance are better that Okafor becomes a good passing big man with solid defense than Noel developing much of an offensive game.

 

Teams with high skill players are winning NBA championships. Okafor has a lot more skill and upside than Noel.

 

For the most part in basketball, generational players for one skill set don't win championships as the lead players- period

 

People like LeBron James, Tim Duncan, etc. are great defensive and offensive players.

 

Now, the fact that Tim Duncan was a great defensive player has certainly helped the Spurs win championships and still maintained being a very good player.

 

But key defensive players can certainly help fuel runs to championships.  Chander certainly played a big role in the Mavs championship.

 

How many low post scoring big men are winning titles?

 

There is no way that Okafor is ever going to turn into the next Shaq or going back even further Olajuwon.

 

He's not a center piece.  Neither is Noel, but Noel is a center piece that limits me less that people are going to value less.

 

 

 

 

Noel isn't generational anything.  He's weak and thin and the only reason he appears well enough is because most teams don't have an offensively capable big man to expose him.  He's good and he's fast, but he's not going to set the world on fire.

Well, I can only judge him against his actual competition.

Edited November 25, 2015 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

When's the last time the league actually had a dominant low post scorer though?  Like one season from Andrew Bynum in the past 15 years?  Other than that, it's Shaq and Prime Duncan.

 

Really the only dominant low post scorers who haven't won a title are like Ewing, Malone, and Nate Thurmond.

[Destino]

Didn't Marcin Gortat have a field day against Noel last season? Twice if I remember correctly.

[PeterMP]

Didn't Marcin Gortat have a field day against Noel last season? Twice if I remember correctly.

 

I remember this

 

http://www.dailylocal.com/sports/20150227/noel-double-double-leads-sixers-past-wizards

 

"Friday night, Noel had 14 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, three blocks, several shots altered as he outplayed both Marcin Gortat (eight points, 14 rebounds) and Nene (six points, five boards)."

 

 

**EDIT**

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Noel was great every game last year.  He wasn't.  There were definitely games that he struggled even defensively.

 

But he was also a 20 year old rookie that hadn't played competitive basketball for a year.

 

And he had games where he showed he could play against pure low post bigs in the NBA.

 

And yes if the next Shaq shows up Noel is going to have issues, but so is the rest of the league, including Okafor.

Edited November 25, 2015 by PeterMP

[Hersh]

For the most part in basketball, generational players for one skill set don't win championships as the lead players- period

 

People like LeBron James, Tim Duncan, etc. are great defensive and offensive players.

 

Now, the fact that Tim Duncan was a great defensive player has certainly helped the Spurs win championships and still maintained being a very good player.

 

But key defensive players can certainly help fuel runs to championships.  Chander certainly played a big role in the Mavs championship.

 

How many low post scoring big men are winning titles?

 

There is no way that Okafor is ever going to turn into the next Shaq or going back even further Olajuwon.

 

He's not a center piece.  Neither is Noel, but Noel is a center piece that limits me less that people are going to value less.

 

 

 

 

Well, I can only judge him against his actual competition.

 

You can't ask that question then eliminate low post players from the answer. Aside from those two, some guy named Tim Duncan.

[PeterMP]

You can't ask that question then eliminate low post players from the answer. Aside from those two, some guy named Tim Duncan.

 

Duncan wasn't a low post player primarily.  Duncan has been primarily a high post player with the face up and bank and go by people to the basket.

 

But more importantly the Spurs teams (and the Shaq or Hakeem teams) didn't win because they were good post scorers (only).

 

Those guys were great defensive players.  They were also 3 guys that could really run the floor (when they were young).

 

Those were keys to them winning games.  Not just the (low post) offense.

 

There's no reason to believe that Okafor is ever going to match that, but you only want ignore the defensive part and talk about the low post offensive part.

 

Okafor only has 1/2 their game (and really not even that).  Noel only has 1/2 their game.

 

But you want to emphasize the Okafor half over the Noel half, and as a result, you value the Okafor half, and in a trade would give up more for it.

 

The fact of the matter is that I can name more teams that have won more recently with high quality defensive minded bigs more than you can name teams that are really only low post offensive bigs (i.e. they don't play really good defense and can't stretch the other teams defense with a perimeter shot).

 

But you insist that Okafor has more value because you over value scoring vs. the rest of the game.

Edited November 25, 2015 by PeterMP

[Destino]

I remember this

 

http://www.dailylocal.com/sports/20150227/noel-double-double-leads-sixers-past-wizards

 

"Friday night, Noel had 14 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, three blocks, several shots altered as he outplayed both Marcin Gortat (eight points, 14 rebounds) and Nene (six points, five boards)."

I was thinking these nights:

 

20pts 9-11 shooting. 

23pts 10-11

18pts 8-9

 

What I remember was the field goal percentage because Gortat rarely makes it look easy.  He would just muscle Noel out of the way and get easy shots up.  If Noel can get that wiry strength and tenacity KG had I could see him turning into something special but NBA centers can't be easily pushed off a spot and still have a great deal of success. 

[Hersh]

First off, Okafor at age 19 (Tim Duncan as a sophomore in college) shows the ability to be as offensively gifted in which ever post position you want to put him. His ability to contribute defensively is higher than Noel's ability to contribute offensively.

 

Second, Tim Duncan was definitely a low post player in his prime and still goes to the low post just less often. You are talking out of you *** if you are going to claim Duncan was and is not a low post player.

 

Third, go ahead and name those great/generational defensive post players with no offensive game that have won championships compared to all the great low post players. Try to do it this time without continually moving the goal posts yet again.

 

You might be the only person that would take Noel over Okafor right now.  

[Going Commando]

Peter there hasn't been a dominant low post scorer in since Duncan and Shaq were the best players in the league.  Saying more teams have won championships recently with defensive minded bigs doesn't actually say much about the viability of building around dominant low post scorers because there haven't been any available to build around.  One season or so from Bynum is all we've gotten.  Then the next best thing has been Zbo, Al Jefferson, and Brook Lopez.  None of those guys were dominant, perennial AS caliber scorers.

 

Okafor has the best low post scoring game coming into the league that we've seen in a decade or two.  His footwork is unbelievably natural and he has the total array of finishes with both hands.  Has gigantic hands for catching and handling the ball.  And he can operate out of the high post and score on turnarounds and put the ball on the court and blow by defenders on his way to the basket.  He can also spot up and hit the 17-18 footer.  And he has the body at 20 years old to back down any big man in the league.  He already commands a double team.  He's going to end up being a fantastic offensive player.

 

His upside is way higher than Noel's.  I agree with Hersh, there is a better chance that Okafor becomes a solid defensive player than Noel becomes anything more than a fifth option for a good team's offense.  Meanwhile Okafor is a high 20's usage creative scorer who you can throw the ball in the post and expect to get points or free throws from.  But even if you say Noel plays defense at the same level Okafor plays offense and the same is true of their respective level of offense/defense, then Okafor is more valuable.  The best defensive specialist in the league is not as valuable as a good high volume scorer with the ability to create crunch time offense.

 

Also, basing the decision on who to trade off of what you think you can get in return for them relative to their actual value isn't worth it.  No team is going to get anywhere close to fair value for trading a recent high lottery pick.  You base the decision on who you actually want to build around.

 

Noel takes more off the table for Philly in the modern style of play than Okafor because he doesn't have a true position like Okafor does.  He has the body of a stretch four but he can't shoot.  What team can afford to play a PF who can't shoot and has no scoring tools big minutes?  It completely gums up the floor spacing.  Philly would be way better if they put four perimeter shooters on the floor with Okafor.

[PeterMP]

First off, Okafor at age 19 (Tim Duncan as a sophomore in college) shows the ability to be as offensively gifted in which ever post position you want to put him. His ability to contribute defensively is higher than Noel's ability to contribute offensively.

 

Second, Tim Duncan was definitely a low post player in his prime and still goes to the low post just less often. You are talking out of you *** if you are going to claim Duncan was and is not a low post player.

 

Third, go ahead and name those great/generational defensive post players with no offensive game that have won championships compared to all the great low post players. Try to do it this time without continually moving the goal posts yet again.

 

You might be the only person that would take Noel over Okafor right now.  

 

Duncan's game through out his career has been a high post game.  The face up bank shot has been a key to his game since he came into the league.  That doesn't mean that Duncan doesn't play in the low post game some, but that hasn't been the key to making him the great player he is.

 

The ability to face up and the hit bank shot if you give him space or go by you and score at the rim if you don't is what has made him great.

 

Okafor hasn't shown you anything that compares to that.

 

And I haven't moved a single goal post.  My point from the beginning is that they are both limited players, and you value 1/2 the game over the other half.

 

If you can't see a lot of the great post players that won championships have had both, I don't know what to tell you.  Duncan, Hakeem, Shaq, were all great players.  Not great scorers.

 

And just to point, I'm not the only the person talking about moving Okafor and keeping Noel.

 

http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/11/chad-ford-fuels-insane-okaforrussell-trade-rumors.html

 

And again, partly it is because there is more value in Okafor.

[Destino]

Question, how many teams wouldn't trade their current starting center and a #1 pick for Okafor right now? 

 

Maybe like 4 or 5 at most right? 

[PeterMP]

He can also spot up and hit the 17-18 footer.

Okafor is shooting 30% outside of the paint on non-3 point attempts (he doesn't have any 3 pt. attempts).

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/6643/jahlil-okafor/shotchart/

He's not shown the ability to spot up with any consistency at all.

And again with respect to Noel's offense, he has skills. He was putting up over 100s in his offensive ratings last spring (after the MCW trade).

His skills just don't work with Okafor standing in the post, and Okafor doesn't hit a jump shots really so if run a pick and roll with Noel, you have no where for Okafor to go.

You end up rolling Noel right into Okafor's man.

Why is the ability to score baskets in crunch time more important than the ability to prevent baskets in crunch time?

Especially given that good basket prevention (e.g. steals) can create easy baskets.

(And that's even conceding that Okafor will be able to score crunch time baskets, which I doubt. What'll happen is teams will double him on the catch and force the ball out of his hands as it is easy to double low post players with the ball on the catch)

Edited November 25, 2015 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

Question, how many teams wouldn't trade their current starting center and a #1 pick for Okafor right now? 

 

Maybe like 4 or 5 at most right?

And that's why you trade him if you have to move one of them.

Edited November 25, 2015 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

In other news, Paul George is back.  Better than he was before he broke his leg.  But I want to see him sustain it for a whole season before I jump on his MVP bandwagon.  Last time he started out this good, he came back down to Earth midway through the season.

[Going Commando]

And that's why you trade him if you have to move one of them.

The reason why he'd have such demand is because the league thinks he's going to be an All Star. Philly would be crazy to give that up. You collect assets specifically to get that kind of player.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Nice to see the Lakers are making the Warriors really work for 16-0

[Hersh]

Duncan's game through out his career has been a high post game.  The face up bank shot has been a key to his game since he came into the league.  That doesn't mean that Duncan doesn't play in the low post game some, but that hasn't been the key to making him the great player he is.

 

The ability to face up and the hit bank shot if you give him space or go by you and score at the rim if you don't is what has made him great.

 

Okafor hasn't shown you anything that compares to that.

 

And I haven't moved a single goal post.  My point from the beginning is that they are both limited players, and you value 1/2 the game over the other half.

 

If you can't see a lot of the great post players that won championships have had both, I don't know what to tell you.  Duncan, Hakeem, Shaq, were all great players.  Not great scorers.

 

And just to point, I'm not the only the person talking about moving Okafor and keeping Noel.

 

http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/11/chad-ford-fuels-insane-okaforrussell-trade-rumors.html

 

And again, partly it is because there is more value in Okafor.

 

You should read the entire article you posted if you didn't. Ford refers to Okafor as a low post monster already with the ability to take a guy off the dribble. Again, he is the same as Sophomore in HS Tim Duncan. Considering Okafor's skill set, it's silly to think he won't develop a strong mid-range game. To think Okafor won't be able to score in the crunch time just loses you all credibility on the subject. It's a really ridiculous statement but keep doubling down on pure nonsense.

 

About Duncan, he is considered to have one of the best low post games of all time. He has a great bank shot, but it's his entire low post game, the ability to score and pass out of the low post is what makes him one of the all time greats. Players say he has the best low post game in the NBA.  

 

BTW, where exactly do you think the high post is?

The reason why he'd have such demand is because the league thinks he's going to be an All Star. Philly would be crazy to give that up. You collect assets specifically to get that kind of player.

 

He is making zero sense in this discussion.