***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***

[Going Commando]

LeBron is going to have to take a massive paycut or else gut whatever team he goes to or else get fully paid on a team that has no chance.  Those are his only three choices.

 

We're going to get to see how badly he wants to win more rings.  Magic and Jordan were never faced with this choice.  Kobe chose to get paid to play for losers.

[Going Commando]

The Rockets don't have enough quality trade ammunition to entice Cleveland into making a LeBron trade.  They need to be getting a true long term carrot back in return for LeBron to justify paying luxury tax for a lottery bound team and Eric Gordon ain't getting it done.  Houston is going to have to gut themselves and lose Capela and Ariza and hope that either LeBron or CP3 or both will take massive paycuts.  It won't happen.  Morey won't screw himself out of Ariza, Capela, and CP3 by releasing their holds just for the chance to sign LeBron.  There would have to be a ton of collusion happening prior to FA to thread all of those needles.  Houston is too hard to make work because their most attractive trade assets are free agents.

 

The Wizards can outbid Houston if it comes down to a trade.  We can match salary with Porter and Sato or Oubre without having to add in any trash.  The Rockets are obviously the most attractive option if it comes down to taking a massive paycut. Wizards are a better option if it comes to trading for him after he opts in because we can make a palatable deal and keep two All Stars.

 

Still couldn't beat the Warriors though.  You need four All Stars to match up with them.

 

Or LeBron could take trades off the table by opting out and then it'll be a competition between the Lakers and 76ers and a bunch of MLE offers.

But the more I think about it, the more I think he might opt in and force a trade.  He's going to want his Bird Rights to transfer with him wherever he goes so he can keep signing big ass short term deals.

[Going Commando]

Boston can offer up a pretty tasty package of stuff to trade for LeBron.

 

- LeBron opts in and asks for a trade with x destinations on his list

- A bidding war between those teams ensues

 

Let's say Boston and San Antonio are on his list, do Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving get offered up in trade?

Does Boston balk at having to add Tatum to Kyrie in order to beat a Kawhi offer?

Once again, this free agency period is going to be, by far, the most interesting thing that happens this NBA league year.

[PeterMP]

43 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Boston can offer up a pretty tasty package of stuff to trade for LeBron.

 

- LeBron opts in and asks for a trade with x destinations on his list

- A bidding war between those teams ensues

 

Let's say Boston and San Antonio are on his list, do Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving get offered up in trade?

Does Boston balk at having to add Tatum to Kyrie in order to beat a Kawhi offer?

Once again, this free agency period is going to be, by far, the most interesting thing that happens this NBA league year.

 

It almost becomes pointless to get Lebron for SA if they have to trade Kawhi and for Lebron to go there without Kawhi.

 

And same for Boston without Kyrie and Tatum.

 

So I don't think you have to worry about those things happening.  If Lebron goes the sign and trade route, the Cavs are going to have to take much less than expected for him because if he doesn't like the deals, he can simply opt out.  Lebron can pick the destination and the package.

[Going Commando]

25 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

It almost becomes pointless to get Lebron for SA if they have to trade Kawhi and for Lebron to go there without Kawhi.

 

And same for Boston without Kyrie and Tatum.

 

So I don't think you have to worry about those things happening.  If Lebron goes the sign and trade route, the Cavs are going to have to take much less than expected for him because if he doesn't like the deals, he can simply opt out.  Lebron can pick the destination and the package.

 

I'm not talking about sign and trades though.  I'm talking about him opting in to his final year and then asking Cleveland to trade him, like Chris Paul did last offseason.  Sign and trades are severely restricted now.  This is just a trade.  And LeBron could only have indirect influence on where he goes in this situation.  Cleveland would be free to make the best deal possible.  And it's still worth it for Boston to at least offer Kyrie, because he's coming up on free agency too and hasn't made a long term commitment to their team and LeBron is way, way better than him.  It's also worth it for San Antonio to offer Kawhi unless Kawhi agrees to sign a DPVE this summer.

 

Adding Tatum is where the risk starts to come in.  But it's also how you beat a Kawhi Leonard offer.  Does Boston say **** it, let's do it?  It'd be one sure way to make the Finals this year.

Edited June 15, 2018 by stevemcqueen1

[PeterMP]

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm not talking about sign and trades though.  I'm talking about him opting in to his final year and then asking Cleveland to trade him, like Chris Paul did last offseason.  Sign and trades are severely restricted now.  This is just a trade.  And LeBron could only have indirect influence on where he goes in this situation.  Cleveland would be free to make the best deal possible.  And it's still worth it for Boston to at least offer Kyrie, because he's coming up on free agency too and hasn't made a long term commitment to their team and LeBron is way, way better than him.  It's also worth it for San Antonio to offer Kawhi unless Kawhi agrees to sign a DPVE this summer.

 

Adding Tatum is where the risk starts to come in.  But it's also how you beat a Kawhi Leonard offer.  Does Boston say **** it, let's do it?  It'd be one sure way to make the Finals this year.

 

Paul picked Houston, and in order for it to work, he had to opt in (and they didn't have to give up one of their top tier players to get Paul).

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/6/28/15886854/chris-paul-houston-rockets-trade-no-cap-space-nba-free-agency

 

Lebron would say, you are sending me to this team for this package, or I am opting out and you get nothing.

 

(I miss called it a sign and trade, but it is essentially the same thing (and is what I described).  Lebron has the power.  If the Cavs try to get players from the team he wants to go to, then Lebron can just opt out.)

[Momma There Goes That Man]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Does Boston balk at having to add Tatum to Kyrie in order to beat a Kawhi offer?

 

Boston isn't trading Tatum at all. 

 

They're not trading Kyrie either but Tatum is 100% off limits. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Momma There Goes That Man

[PeterMP]

2 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

Boston isn't trading Tatum at all. 

 

They're not trading Kyrie either but Tatum is 100% off limits. 

 

If you were Boston, you wouldn't trade Kyrie for Lebron?

[CrypticVillain]

Man, I thought no one was talking about LeBron to the Wizards because the Wiz Thread was a ghost town, but the whole time it was being talked about in here. Kind of blown. lol

 

6 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

If you were Boston, you wouldn't trade Kyrie for Lebron?

Why should I?

[PeterMP]

2 minutes ago, CrypticVillain said:

Man, I thought no one was talking about LeBron to the Wizards because the Wiz Thread was a ghost town, but the whole time it was being talked about in here. Kind of blown. lol

 

Why should I?

 

Because Lebron is a much better player than Kyrie.

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Paul picked Houston, and in order for it to work, he had to opt in (and they didn't have to give up one of their top tier players to get Paul).

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/6/28/15886854/chris-paul-houston-rockets-trade-no-cap-space-nba-free-agency

 

Lebron would say, you are sending me to this team for this package, or I am opting out and you get nothing.

 

(I miss called it a sign and trade, but it is essentially the same thing (and is what I described).  Lebron has the power.  If the Cavs try to get players from the team he wants to go to, then Lebron can just opt out.)

 

The option deadline is before free agency.  It's June 29th.  And here's the thing, there's no cap space this summer.  Opting in and asking the Cavs to trade him is pretty much the only way LeBron gets to have his cake and eat it too.  There are only two playoff teams who can make max contract room this summer: Indy and Philly.  The Lakers are the only other team with cap space that offer any appeal, because they can sign Paul George too.  If LeBron doesn't want to go to any of those three teams, and doesn't want to sign a MLE contract, then he has no real leverage over the Cavs.

 

LeBron is heavily incentivized to opt in and request a trade because it's his only option to make 36 million AND play for a good team.  And it means his Bird Rights transfer with him so he can get a max deal next summer and keep signing short term max contracts.  If he signs a MLE, then that's off the table because he'd be looking at three years of MLE money before he could resign with his team at a max deal using Bird Rights if they were over the salary cap.  Signing a one year max with LA or Philly wouldn't work either because you need two years of service with the team to qualify for the Early Bird Rights.

 

So LeBron's options for getting paid and not playing for a total dog are either to sign a medium term deal with LA/Philly/Indy or opt in and request a trade and hope Cleveland sends him where he wants to go.  But if he did so, Cleveland would be totally empowered to trade him for the best return.  Now he can try and undermine deals from certain teams by telling them he won't sign an extension there.  But whose to say someone like Boston or San Antonio says, "well we might lose our own guys anyway," and pull the trigger.

 

We're going to know a lot more about LeBron's fate on June 29th.  If he opts out, I think it's clear he's going to LA.  If he opts in, then it'll be staying in Cleveland or getting traded to someone like San Antonio, Houston, Boston, or DC.  And I think San Antonio, Boston, and DC are more likely because they can put together better packages for the Cavs.

[CrypticVillain]

1 minute ago, PeterMP said:

 

Because Lebron is a much better player than Kyrie.

Now.

 

Just don't think Ainge will make that trade knowing LeBron could realistically stop playing at anytime now. I'd rather just ride out with Kyrie.

 

 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Just now, PeterMP said:

 

If you were Boston, you wouldn't trade Kyrie for Lebron?

 

I would but I don't think Boston would. They were pretty ruthless with IT but it made sense. Turning around and immediately trading Kyrie is going to sour that locker room and franchise perception around the league among free agents. 

 

Plus they might not want everything else that comes with Lebron and how he basically takes over a franchise and team. They have a good thing going right now with Stevens and their roster. 

[PeterMP]

13 minutes ago, CrypticVillain said:

Now.

 

Just don't think Ainge will make that trade knowing LeBron could realistically stop playing at anytime now. I'd rather just ride out with Kyrie.

 

 

 

Kyrie's had like 3 knee surgeries and  has missed a ton of time in his career with injuries.  I'm not at all sure why somebody would think that Kyrie is going to be a better player in 3 years than Lebron.

14 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The option deadline is before free agency.  It's June 29th.  And here's the thing, there's no cap space this summer.  Opting in and asking the Cavs to trade him is pretty much the only way LeBron gets to have his cake and eat it too.  There are only two playoff teams who can make max contract room this summer: Indy and Philly.  The Lakers are the only other team with cap space that offer any appeal, because they can sign Paul George too.  If LeBron doesn't want to go to any of those three teams, and doesn't want to sign a MLE contract, then he has no real leverage over the Cavs.

 

LeBron is heavily incentivized to opt in and request a trade because it's his only option to make 36 million AND play for a good team.  And it means his Bird Rights transfer with him so he can get a max deal next summer and keep signing short term max contracts.  If he signs a MLE, then that's off the table because he'd be looking at three years of MLE money before he could resign with his team at a max deal using Bird Rights if they were over the salary cap.  Signing a one year max with LA or Philly wouldn't work either because you need two years of service with the team to qualify for the Early Bird Rights.

 

So LeBron's options for getting paid and not playing for a total dog are either to sign a medium term deal with LA/Philly/Indy or opt in and request a trade and hope Cleveland sends him where he wants to go.  But if he did so, Cleveland would be totally empowered to trade him for the best return.  Now he can try and undermine deals from certain teams by telling them he won't sign an extension there.  But whose to say someone like Boston or San Antonio says, "well we might lose our own guys anyway," and pull the trigger.

 

We're going to know a lot more about LeBron's fate on June 29th.  If he opts out, I think it's clear he's going to LA.  If he opts in, then it'll be staying in Cleveland or getting traded to someone like San Antonio, Houston, Boston, or DC.  And I think San Antonio, Boston, and DC are more likely because they can put together better packages for the Cavs.

 

But he could be traded at any time.  The June 29th deadline just puts a deadline on him to be traded.  If they don't trade him by June 29th he opts out (unless he decides that staying in Cleveland is actually his best move).

 

I agree Lebron has an incentive to push for the opt in and the trade to maximize his pay AND play for a GOOD team.

 

But when you have Boston trading Kyrie and Tatum and SA trading Kawai, you've lost that.

 

Lebron can just stay in Cleveland and they'll likely be as good as those teams.  Do you think that adding Lebron and subtract Kawai gets SA out of the western conference? (I'm going to say that I don't think anybody thinks that's true.). 

 

Why would Lebron move and uproot his family for a team that isn't even likely to make the championship?  That puts the limit on what SA can give up.  If I'm Lebron and the deal for me to SA includes Kawai, then I just say I'm going to opt out and kill the deal.

 

(I'm guessing Lebron has a no trade clause so he doesn't even have to say he's opting out.  He can just say no (if he has one).)

Edited June 15, 2018 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, CrypticVillain said:

Now.

 

Just don't think Ainge will make that trade knowing LeBron could realistically stop playing at anytime now. I'd rather just ride out with Kyrie.

 

 

 

Trade Kyrie for LeBron and you're going to the Finals.  There would be absolutely no legit competition.  And you're hoping that Golden State looks fatigued again and that your team is young and hungry and knocks them off.  It's feasible that this deal gets you a championship next year.

 

Kyrie Irving is a free agent in 2019.  He's already said he won't sign an extension before then.  Boston could lose him for nothing.  If Cleveland agrees to a Kyrie for LeBron swap then it's a no-brainer.

 

The risk would come in having to win a bidding war.  If San Antonio offers Kawhi, that beats offering Kyrie.  But what if Cleveland knows they're facing a rebuild and is looking for long term assets instead?  What if DC builds a package around Porter, Oubre, and draft picks?  If DC lands LeBron without giving up Wall or Beal, then they're the ones going to the Finals next season instead of you.  And now LeBron is on a team that's significantly younger and more talented than his previous one, and could be a road block for you for the next three or for years.

 

So to beat their offer you now have to match salary with Kyrie AND throw in one of your young good players.  Do you do it?  Or do you stay put and hope like Hell that LeBron heads West?  It's a huge gamble either way.

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

LeBron is going to the Lakers.  And within 3 years, the finals will be Lakers/Celtics.  Book it.

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

But he could be traded at any time.  The June 29th deadline just puts a deadline on him to be traded.

 

I agree Lebron has an incentive to push for the opt in and the trade to maximize his pay AND play for a GOOD team.

 

But when you have Boston trading Kyrie and Tatum and SA trading Kawai, you've lost that.

 

Lebron can just stay in Cleveland and they'll likely be as good as those teams.  Do you think that adding Lebron and subtract Kawai gets SA out of the western conference? (I'm going to say that I don't think anybody thinks that's true.).  Why would Lebron move and uproot his family for a team that isn't even likely to make the championship?

 

If you're Cleveland, the best move by far is to wait for him to opt in before trading him.  If he says "trade me to Houston or I opt out," then you say "Alright, Bye" because you're looking at a return platter that will suck, quite frankly.  It will be expensive and have little long term value and you will end up paying luxury tax for a lottery team.  You'd be better off letting LeBron walk and getting the cap relief and rebuilding from square one.  The potential return from a three or four team bidding war for LeBron would be so much better that Cleveland would be heavily incentivized to call LeBron's bluff and let him either walk and go to LA or opt in.

 

As far as LeBron gutting his future team by getting traded to it, that's not really Cleveland's problem.  Once LeBron opts in, he doesn't have final say over what happens next.  He'll be a free agent the next summer, but he'll be stuck there for the year and that team will have his Bird Rights.  He'll run into a similar issue next summer if more teams don't clear up cap space by then.

[Going Commando]

The reason Chris Paul's opt-in and trade me to Houston demand worked is because Doc Rivers is a god awful GM.  He recognized far too late that he was headed for a rebuild.  And thus he gave up CP3 for a crap return.  And got nothing from DeAndre Jordan, who might leave this summer.  He's going to get fired eventually and they're going to end up rebuilding with a luxury tax roster and no premium assets.

[justice98]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

LeBron is going to have to take a massive paycut or else gut whatever team he goes to or else get fully paid on a team that has no chance.  Those are his only three choices.

 

We're going to get to see how badly he wants to win more rings.  Magic and Jordan were never faced with this choice.  Kobe chose to get paid to play for losers.

 

I think he's used to teams being gutted for her services.  And he's 2 for 2 so far. Both the Heat and Cavs gutted the previous year's team to get him in.  Got a title by the second year both times.

[PeterMP]

20 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If you're Cleveland, the best move by far is to wait for him to opt in before trading him.  If he says "trade me to Houston or I opt out," then you say "Alright, Bye" because you're looking at a return platter that will suck, quite frankly.  It will be expensive and have little long term value and you will end up paying luxury tax for a lottery team.  You'd be better off letting LeBron walk and getting the cap relief and rebuilding from square one.  The potential return from a three or four team bidding war for LeBron would be so much better that Cleveland would be heavily incentivized to call LeBron's bluff and let him either walk and go to LA or opt in.

 

As far as LeBron gutting his future team by getting traded to it, that's not really Cleveland's problem.  Once LeBron opts in, he doesn't have final say over what happens next.  He'll be a free agent the next summer, but he'll be stuck there for the year and that team will have his Bird Rights.  He'll run into a similar issue next summer if more teams don't clear up cap space by then.

 

So the trade to Houston can give you a couple of advantages.  The biggest is it is easier to trade several smaller  pieces for future assets than one big one.  Cleveland might not want Eric Gordon, but somebody will give up something for him.

 

Right off the bat, Lebron has a no trade clause.  He's also not going to opt in until there is an understanding of what the trade is.  If he opts in and the trade isn't what he expected, he refuses the trade and you are stuck with an unhappy Lebron for another year.

 

And as the Cavs, you look bad, which is going to hurt your ability to recruit players in the future.  Having a guy opt in with the understanding that a certain trade is going to take place and then trying to change the terms of the trade is going to make it hard to recruit other big name free agents in the future.

 

Paul was traded the 28th.  The opt in deadline was the 29th last year too.  I guarantee you, the terms of a deal were in place when Paul opted in.  The same will happen with Lebron if he wants to go that route.

 

Lebron is not going to opt in for a trade to SA that includes Kawai.  He'd be better off just staying with the Cavs or going to the Lakers.  If he opts in and then the Cavs demand a change in the trade, they are not only screwing Lebron, but SA, which is going to make anybody (player or other team) very reluctant to do business with them again, which hurts the Cavs very long term.

Edited June 15, 2018 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

15 minutes ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

LeBron is going to the Lakers.  And within 3 years, the finals will be Lakers/Celtics.  Book it.

 

He might.  We'll know a lot more by June 29th.

 

Right now it's still hard to say what will happen.  But if he opts out, then we're realistically looking at a two team courtship between Philly and the Lakers, and I think the Lakers would win.

 

But if he opts in, then I think it will come down to the Wizards and Celtics and who is willing to give up more long term assets for him.

4 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

I think he's used to teams being gutted for her services.  And he's 2 for 2 so far. Both the Heat and Cavs gutted the previous year's team to get him in.  Got a title by the second year both times.

 

This is what I expect him to do.  But he's also smart enough that he'll try and go to a team with two other All Stars in place, even if they have to gut players 4-10.  That's what he did in Miami and Cleveland.  And that's why I think it'll be between Boston and DC if he opts into his final year.

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

So the trade to Houston can give you a couple of advantages.  The biggest is it is easier to trade several smaller  pieces for future assets than one big one.  Cleveland might not want Eric Gordon, but somebody will give up something for him.

 

Right off the bat, he has a no trade clause.  He's also not going to opt in until there is an understanding of what the trade is.  If he opts in and the trade isn't what he expected, he refuses the trade and you are stuck with an unhappy Lebron for another year.

 

And as the Cavs, you look bad, which is going to hurt your ability to recruit players in the future.  Having a guy opt in with the understanding that a certain trade is going to take place and then trying to change the terms of the trade is going to make it hard to recruit other big name free agents in the future.

 

If you're the Cavs, I don't think you even need to have an understanding in place before LeBron opts in.  You just call his bluff and see whether he will opt in or not.  The incentive is there to do that.  If LeBron is trying to force his way onto one of just a few good teams with no cap space, then he's not the one with the leverage in the situation.

 

Houston just doesn't have any decent trade assets for a rebuilding Cleveland.  The deal would have to be built around Gordon, and Cleveland is too far into the tax to want to take him.  Why put yourself in a situation where you have to try and make a second trade of a mediocre asset when you can let LeBron walk and get the cap relief you're looking for?  Would Gordon and PJ Tucker really get you anything more than low value late first rounders?  The potential reward from a bidding war between the Wizards and Celtics is sooooo much better.  And worst case scenario, LeBron walks and you get a ton of tax relief and you start rebuilding.

 

As far as the no trade clause goes, that gives LeBron some leverage on his destination.  But if he wants out of Cleveland, why would he veto a trade to a team that would be good enough to make a Finals run with him on it?  He'd lose another season on dead end Cleveland team again and be doing this same song and dance next summer.  I think the best both LeBron and Cleveland can hope for in this situation is for LeBron to opt in and give Cleveland a short list of teams to deal with.

[CrypticVillain]

Okay @PeterMP and @stevemcqueen1... Y'all convinced me.

Guess it does kind of make sense to get you a chance at two or three championships now instead of waiting until GS "Cools off"...

 

Crazy part though is y'all know the league has messed up now. Golden State was very vulnerable this year. Now, they have one off-season to reload. Don't know if y'all talked about it or not, but I've heard rumors that Ariza could head there... You get a bamma like him coming off the bench, even if it does mean losing Iggy, I feel like that might be an upgrade for sure.

[PeterMP]

15 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If you're the Cavs, I don't think you even need to have an understanding in place before LeBron opts in.  You just call his bluff and see whether he will opt in or not.  The incentive is there to do that.  If LeBron is trying to force his way onto one of just a few good teams with no cap space, then he's not the one with the leverage in the situation.

 

Houston just doesn't have any decent trade assets for a rebuilding Cleveland.  The deal would have to be built around Gordon, and Cleveland is too far into the tax to want to take him.  Why put yourself in a situation where you have to try and make a second trade of a mediocre asset when you can let LeBron walk and get the cap relief you're looking for?  Would Gordon and PJ Tucker really get you anything more than low value late first rounders?  The potential reward from a bidding war between the Wizards and Celtics is sooooo much better.  And worst case scenario, LeBron walks and you get a ton of tax relief and you start rebuilding.

 

As far as the no trade clause goes, that gives LeBron some leverage on his destination.  But if he wants out of Cleveland, why would he veto a trade to a team that would be good enough to make a Finals run with him on it?  He'd lose another season on dead end Cleveland team again and be doing this same song and dance next summer.  I think the best both LeBron and Cleveland can hope for in this situation is for LeBron to opt in and give Cleveland a short list of teams to deal with.

 

1.  Realistically, he does have options.  Going to the Lakers with another max player is probably better than going to the likes of SA without Kawai.  Like I said, I think he'd be better off staying in Cleveland.  (The biggest issue for Cleveland is if you don't trade him, he leaves and then signs with somebody on an MLE, and then you look really bad.)

 

2.  You do it because you actually get something for him.  Gordon and Tucker probably do not give you anything more than last first rounders, but it is better than nothing, which is what you get left with if he just leaves.

 

3.  SA without Kawai isn't good enough to make a run to the finals.  They aren't in a better position to make the finals than the Cavs with Lebron.

 

If Lebron opts in to get traded, he's doing it with an understanding of where he's going the package is.  Staying in Cleveland or going to the Lakers with another max player is better than going to SA without Kawai.  Lebron is not going to opt in and then leave his fate to Gilbert unless he's decided that staying in Cleveland is at least an okay out come (and he does have the no trade clause).

 

If Lebron opts in and a trade is not announced the next day, that tells you that Lebron is AT LEAST okay staying in Cleveland.

Edited June 15, 2018 by PeterMP

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

If Lebron opts in and a trade is not announced the next day, that tells you that Lebron is AT LEAST okay staying in Cleveland.

 

I think he would be at least OK with staying in Cleveland for another year.  And this is not the worst outcome for either.  Cleveland gets another year where they probably make the Finals and they make a lot of money off these runs.  Even if he left in free agency at the end of it, they still come out ahead.  And for LeBron, he's comfortable in Cleveland and he can see if the money opens next summer and more good teams clear room for him.  But there is also risk in this. Signing as a FA means his Bird Rights disappear and he very likely wouldn't be able to keep signing short term max deals.

 

It's in LeBron's interest to get himself traded if he wants out of Cleveland and doesn't want to go to the Lakers.  That's why I don't think he'll use his NTC.

 

There is opportunity cost paid in caving to LeBron and accepting a crappy return package from the Rockets.  It means you're giving up the chance at benefiting from a LeBron bidding war, and that is far more costly than giving up a couple of late first rounders IMO.  You're right about the Spurs, but The Celtics and Wizards can put very appealing offers on the table for LeBron that leave their rosters with two All Stars.  Both Cleveland and LeBron win in this scenario.

 

If LeBron wants to go to the Lakers, then he'll simply opt out and this is all a moot point.  He wouldn't opt in and force his way there IMO, because the Lakers can't beat trade offers from Boston or DC.  They'd have to salary match with a crap player like Luol Deng that would offset the appeal of whatever young players they could add, plus their young players aren't as good as DC's or Boston's.  So if he opts out, it's probably a clear sign he wants to go to LA, but if he opts in, it's an equally clear sign that he doesn't want to go there IMO.  We're going to know if LA is an option for him before free agency starts.