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Facts on rebuilding; the Myth of the "One Year Turn Around"


KCClybun

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Grossman doesn't scare you?

BWAHAHAHAHA :ols:....

---------- Post added December-20th-2011 at 07:32 AM ----------

Actually doesn't look so bad there. It wasn't so much the personnel that killed this team in 2009 - it was the injuries, and the coaching.

I think something like 80% of the Redskins' 2009 roster is out of the NFL now :ols:...Mike had NO groceries in the cabinet when he took over.

---------- Post added December-20th-2011 at 07:38 AM ----------

And great job, NLC1054 :cheers:...Couldn't agree more. The Falcons might be the only 1-year turnaround team I can think of. There have been teams that played well for one year like the Dolphins and Bucs did, but a REAL, genuine turnaround through rebuilding takes several years before you start seeing consistent, positive results.

We might end up going the Rams route, when they went something like 4-12 and then 3-13 in Vermeil's first two seasons...then went on a 5-year run of double digit wins and Super Bowl appearances after finding their franchise QB.

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Going into this season, I had NO illusions of playoffs or Super Bowls. I was telling people that if the Redskins were to finish 8-8 that would be a GREAT season. This was the start of a major rebuild of this team. I was pleased that Allen/Shanahan was able to parlay 7 draft picks into TWELVE draft picks AND as it turned out, over half of those picks were able to get on the field and gain valuable experience and play pretty well. If we have another draft similiar to this one in '12, (I'm praying that RG III falls to us in our draft slot. If he's gone then Matt Barkley) that would escalate the rebuild process. Patience people.....patience.

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I think something like 80% of the Redskins' 2009 roster is out of the NFL now

You may think that, but you'd be wrong. I counted at least 20 guys who were still on this roster or a league roster at the beginning of this season.

And great job, NLC1054 :cheers:...Couldn't agree more. The Falcons might be the only 1-year turnaround team I can think of. There have been teams that played well for one year like the Dolphins and Bucs did, but a REAL, genuine turnaround through rebuilding takes several years before you start seeing consistent, positive results.

We might end up going the Rams route, when they went something like 4-12 and then 3-13 in Vermeil's first two seasons...then went on a 5-year run of double digit wins and Super Bowl appearances after finding their franchise QB.

Plenty of teams have done the 1-year turnaround. Heck, the Saints by themselves have gone from 3-13 to 10-6 twice.

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Nice job NLC - I wanted to write something like this in response to the silly thread Lombardi's_kid_brother started but I don't have the patience.

I'll just add that not only did Shanahan inherit expansion team like talent, he inherited a train wreck in terms of character and attitude. Guys like Haynsworthless who were a complete distraction were untradeable in his first year. Shanahan had to see for himself how his former star Portis had fallen into disrepair and become poison to the team with his poor work ethic and me-first attitude. Shanahan didn't drive the bus through the wall. He's been too busy driving it back and forth to the repair shop just to try to get it running smooth. And anyone who has watched this team put together LONG sustained drives this year (something I haven't seen since Gibbs v1) and thinks he hasn't made great progress need to have their head examined.

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I think something like 80% of the Redskins' 2009 roster is out of the NFL now :ols:...Mike had NO groceries in the cabinet when he took over.

27 out of 52 players on that roster are still in the league:

Jason Campbell

Rock Cartwright

Mike Sellers

Santana Moss

Devin Thomas

Derrick Dockery

Stehon Heyer

Will Montgomery

Chad Rinehart

Andre Carter

Kedric Golston

Brian Orakpo

London Fletcher

Rocky McIntosh

H.B. Blades

Carlos Rogers

DeAngelo Hall

Justin Tryon

Byron Westbrook

Kevin Barnes

LaRon Landry

Reed Doughty

Shaun Suisham

Fred Davis

Chris Cooley

D'Anthony Batiste

Lorenzo Alexander

Nominally, 13 are still starters (I've used nomially because I've included people like Cooley, Rinehart, Davis, and Campbell) who haven't started every game, but started quite a few so it wouldn't even be true to state that 80% aren't starters (that would work out to 75%).

More importantly, where that team is weak, is the OL, QB, and skill players. That's where we are still weak.

The secondary and LB are very similar (and in many cases the same). The names on the DL have changed, but there weren't really difference makers on that DL and there aren't today. Some of the names on the OL have changed, but I don't know if our OL is really better (it is younger, but I'm not sure it is better). The skill players and QB are still lacking.

As near as I can tell, Shanahan has only rearranged the deck chairs.

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I blame the dumb-as-rocks sports media in this town for the fact that this stuff even needs to be written.

Which are typically shows like Lavar and Chad or the Junkies, who feel the only way they can keep people listening is by inspiring them to pickup torches and pitchforks pretty much all the time.

Shows like tht take their queues from TV news programs that love to inspire hate in one way or another..

Going into this season, I had NO illusions of playoffs or Super Bowls. I was telling people that if the Redskins were to finish 8-8 that would be a GREAT season. This was the start of a major rebuild of this team. I was pleased that Allen/Shanahan was able to parlay 7 draft picks into TWELVE draft picks AND as it turned out, over half of those picks were able to get on the field and gain valuable experience and play pretty well. If we have another draft similiar to this one in '12, (I'm praying that RG III falls to us in our draft slot. If he's gone then Matt Barkley) that would escalate the rebuild process. Patience people.....patience.

Same here... I knew playoffs wasn't happening, but, all I wanted to see is some of the younger players starting to get better... and I have seen exactly that.

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Everytime he ****s his arm to throw...:ols:

ya know... I get where you are coming from but when you really look at it 75% of the time he looks like Montana out there. When he's on, he's got that w coast passing game down. A about 20% of the time his short stature gives him problems, and about 5% are WTF moments where he throws a boneheaded pass.

My theory is this... Grosman is very good at pre-snap reads and he trusts them. He isn't good at reading after the ball is snapped so on those occasions that he is fooled, he ends up throwing right into the teeth of the coverage.

Honestly. I hope he comes back next year. (yes I still want that first round QB in the draft). Another good infusion of talent like we had this past draft and we might have a team that can make up for Grosman's mistakes while capitalising on his talent. When the rookie can do better he can take the reins but we could do far worse than having Grossman as our worst QB.

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The OP is exactly on the spot here and is saying something I have been saying for awhile.

The 49ers and Redskins have both been pretty bad for a decade now, (with the exception of a couple of seasons). Those bad seasons usually will net a team a ton of draft picks, used to build towards the future.

The 49ers franchise took that opportunity and drafted. The 'Skins traded away draft picks year after year for free agents.

The 49ers went through growing pains, but were building a solid foundation so that once the corner was turned they were built for the long haul.

The Redskins relied on free agency star power to go into every new season "all or nothing" and hope for the best.

As the OP pointed out, it isn't just the 1st round stars that you draft. It is the later round picks that are compiled, the depth. You need the depth for when starters need to be rotated out for rest or go down for a couple of weeks with injuries.

Our franchise has been so lacking in depth that when a starter got injured, the drop in level of play was dramatic.

Finally in 2011, it looks like we have some type of depth evidenced by how the offense has looked a little improved towards the closing out of this season.

More times then not the 1 year turn around teams are ones that come out of the gate strong, take the league by surprise, but then fade at the end of the season, possibly crawling towards a playoff spot and then lose in the first round before returning to nowhere the following season. Sound familiar?

Shanahan was very clear with Dan Snyder about where this franchise was. The hole it had dug itself before he got here, and said not to even bother hiring him if there was an expectation to have a championship caliber team in 1-2 seasons. He said that in plain english. There were no minced words there. So it boggles my mind why fans want to dump Shanahan now, blow it all up again, just when it looks like this team is starting to get better, not only in the 3-4 scheme but on offense as well.

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You may think that, but you'd be wrong. I counted at least 20 guys who were still on this roster or a league roster at the beginning of this season.

2009 roster:

QB: Campbell, Collins, Brennan

RBs: Portis, Betts, Ganther, Mason, Cartwright

FB: Sellers

WRs: Moss, ARE, Thomas, Marko Mitchell, Kelly

TEs: Cooley, Davis, Yoder

OLine: Samuels, Dockery, Rabach, Thomas, Heyer, Batiste, Edwin Williams, Montgomery, Rinehart, Mike Williams

27 players on offense. 14 of them out of the NFL.

DLine: Daniels, Griffin, Haynesworth, Carter, Wynn, Golston, Montgomery, Alexander, Jarmon

LB: Orakpo, Fletcher, McIntosh, Wilson, Blades, Henson

DBs: Rogers, Hall, Smoot, Tryon, Westbrook, Barnes

Safeties: Horton, Landry, Moore, Doughty

ST: Albright, Hunter Smith, Suisham

27 players out of 54. 50% instead of 80%, which was a joking exaggeration to begin with to make a point...and the point still stands. Find another team where 50% of the players they had on their roster 2 seasons ago are now out of the league.

Plenty of teams have done the 1-year turnaround. Heck, the Saints by themselves have gone from 3-13 to 10-6 twice.

Name them.

And again as I said before, I'm not talking about teams having a brief uptick in win totals for one season...I'm talking about actual turnarounds for a franchise like what the Falcons have done. The Dolphins had one good year, but that's it. They have since fired their coach. The Bucs have had one good year, but so far that's it. Name the "plenty of teams" that have finished their rebuild and are winning consistently year after year after just one season.

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27 out of 52 players on that roster are still in the league.

As near as I can tell, Shanahan has only rearranged the deck chairs.

I pared down your post...

But, only half of the players from less than 2 seasons ago remain in the NFL and you're using that as a point against Shanahan? I think the fact that he essentially would have had to add 27 players even if he were to keep all the NFL-caliber guys from Zorn's team illustrates that we had a horrible roster when he took over.

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Oh and no, I still don't think Alex Smith himself is that much of a QB. The game last night alone showed his flaws. He had the one beautiful pass to Vernon Davis that was arguably a TD. However he missed a lot of open WRs and unlike Rothelisburger, an injured Big Ben mind you, who often could face down pressure in his face and stand in there and still deliver the ball accurately, Alex Smith still breaks down as soon as there is pressure and throws it array.

But that is really neither here or there. Alex Smith was likely retained because of the short offseason, and it would have been that much harder to get a brand new QB acclimated into the offense, get timing down with the playmakers etc etc etc.

Harbaugh has designed an offense around Smith having to do the minimum possible. Basically, don't screw up, and when we have a wide open WR/TE hit them, type offense that is anchored by a solid physical running game and outstanding defense.

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27 out of 52 players on that roster are still in the league:

H.B. Blades

Blades isn't on a roster.

Nominally, 13 are still starters (I've used nomially because I've included people like Cooley, Rinehart, Davis, and Campbell) who haven't started every game, but started quite a few so it wouldn't even be true to state that 80% aren't starters (that would work out to 75%).

Again, I assumed the laughing emoticon, along with saying "something like" would convey that I wasn't being literal with the 80%...50% is still ridiculously huge. And 75% of starters should be close enough for my point to have been made anyway lol...

As near as I can tell, Shanahan has only rearranged the deck chairs.

Then I question your perception abilities.

---------- Post added December-20th-2011 at 08:56 AM ----------

I pared down your post...

But, only half of the players from less than 2 seasons ago remain in the NFL and you're using that as a point against Shanahan? I think the fact that he essentially would have had to add 27 players even if he were to keep all the NFL-caliber guys from Zorn's team illustrates that we had a horrible roster when he took over.

Exactly, thank you lol :applause:...it's one thing if 50% of the roster doesn't fit your new scheme. It's quite another if 50% of your roster doesn't fit ANYONE'S scheme in the entire NFL.

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Shanahan was very clear with Dan Snyder about where this franchise was. The hole it had dug itself before he got here, and said not to even bother hiring him if there was an expectation to have a championship caliber team in 1-2 seasons. He said that in plain english. There were no minced words there.

If only that were true. Some other poster in some other thread put it best by saying you've almost got to judge Shanahan's run in two parts - 2010 and this year. Last year, he made moves like the McNabb deal, the Brown deal, keeping Galloway/cutting Thomas, all the old RBs, etc., which suggested a "win-now" mentality, and of course it blew up in his face. This year, he seems to have learned his lesson, and he's doing all the right things. I like the direction the team's going now, but it would be further along if Shanahan had gone "all in" on a rebuild last year.

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I pared down your post...

But, only half of the players from less than 2 seasons ago remain in the NFL and you're using that as a point against Shanahan? I think the fact that he essentially would have had to add 27 players even if he were to keep all the NFL-caliber guys from Zorn's team illustrates that we had a horrible roster when he took over.

So what's the standard rate of turnover for an NFL roster over 2 seasons? (Serious question - I don't know the exact rate, but I'm fairly sure it's in the double digits).

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ya know... I get where you are coming from but when you really look at it 75% of the time he looks like Montana out there.

Where do people come up with these numbers? I love reading your posts, Mike, but the exaggeration is strong there.

He doesn't even complete 75% of his passes. He throws a higher percentage of picks than he does TDs. He takes sacks he doesn't need to take sometimes. He throws into double and triple coverage. He puts too much loft underneath the ball sometimes.

I've seen him throw more high passes and ground balls than I care to count...

I don't see Montana. At all.

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And again as I said before, I'm not talking about teams having a brief uptick in win totals for one season...I'm talking about actual turnarounds for a franchise like what the Falcons have done. The Dolphins had one good year, but that's it. They have since fired their coach. The Bucs have had one good year, but so far that's it. Name the "plenty of teams" that have finished their rebuild and are winning consistently year after year after just one season.

You'll be able to add the 49ers to that list soon. They'll get an early exit from the playoffs this season and then go back to sucking next year.

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I love the touting of Alex Smith as a good draft pick now.

Alex Smith is 11-3 as a starter this season. The 49ers win and lose as a team, and Alex Smith isnt elite or anything, but he's playing better and with far more confidence than he has before. You can build on that going forward.

Plenty of teams have done the 1-year turnaround. Heck, the Saints by themselves have gone from 3-13 to 10-6 twice.

The Saints also went 7-9 immediately following both of their 10-6 "turnaround seasons". The Bucs went 10-6 last season after going 3-13, and aren't going to finish over .500 this year and might be canning their head coach. The Chiefs won the AFC West last year, and thanks to the screwiness of their division they're still sort of in the hunt, but still, they're having a down season.

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So what's the standard rate of turnover for an NFL roster over 2 seasons? (Serious question - I don't know the exact rate, but I'm fairly sure it's in the double digits).

It's more than just turnover...it's players not even being in the league anymore. Our rate of turnover since 2009 is even higher than 50%.

---------- Post added December-20th-2011 at 09:08 AM ----------

You'll be able to add the 49ers to that list soon. They'll get an early exit from the playoffs this season and then go back to sucking next year.

whoops, misread your post lol :doh:...

---------- Post added December-20th-2011 at 09:10 AM ----------

The Chiefs won the AFC West last year, and thanks to the screwiness of their division they're still sort of in the hunt, but still, they're having a down season.

And they, too, just fired their head coach :ols:...doesn't sound like a one-year rebuild to me.

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Double digits seems more than reasonable for sure (I don't know either). But I would guess 50% is very, very high.

Just doing a quick check of the 49ers offensive roster in 2009, only six of the players on their offense back then are out of the league now. Six out of 24 players, or 25%.

A whopping 14 of the offensive players on the Skins' roster from 2009 are out of the league. 14 out of 27 players, or 52%.

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