Poll: Has any past or present player ever been worth TWO first round draft picks?

[Wildbunny]

I already said it, to me, a player for 2 1st is not worth it, whoever that player is, period.

[Darth Tater]

Do you mean is ANY player worth 2 firsts or only if the guys current team would make the deal? There are most definitely players worth 2 firsts but you do have to wonder that if a guy's current team is actually willing to deal him, is he really that good? Dave Butz was traded to us for 2 firsts and a second.

[panel]

Jim Brown

Jerry Rice

Barry Sanders

Bruce Matthews

Lawrence Taylor

Dick Butkus

Ronnie Lott

Sean Taylor

Darrell Green

Reggie White

In other words, wouldn't it be better to get one of the players above, every other year, than it would be to just draft the types of hit miss first rounders we draft now?

Payton Manning

[Hiro]

Yes. In the NFL of today, if a top young QB is on the market at all, they are absolutely worth 2 1st round picks. As important as the QB position is, getting a top notch young one could turn your franchise around.

Why the expense? Because it's so rare for a good, young QB to come on the market since typically if a team finds one, they keep them.

[Mursilis]

The thing is even those who say there are players worth that price, they are only naming a handful at the most.

Well because only a few players are worth it! Football remains a team sport, and that's why most players aren't worth two #1s, but QB is an important enough position that an elite QB is worth the price. I don't think ANY other position is worth 2 #1s though. Just QB.

[Darth Tater]

Well, even those saying Yes are more or less only naming 5 to 10 players who would have been worth such a deal. Shows just how rare a deal like that should be if it's ever made, and for a player who's abilities transcend the game.

If you catch lightning in a bottle, great. Odds are you wouldn't. I'm not much of a gambler.

To the question YOU asked, only 1 exception was needed and no trade needed to occur anyway. DG in his heyday, you bet. Peyton Manning several years ago, you bet. In history, there have been quite a few.

[Mursilis]

I really doubt that a player is worth 2 others of the same caliber. Here the trick is not to think if you want to trade 2 picks for Rodgers, Manning or whoever you think is worth it.

But do you trade Manning for an Orakpo and aKerrigan? Or an Orakpo and a Sean Taylor for Manning?

Sure not every first will end up being All-Pro, but usually they're good players at the very least.

So to me, it's definately worth it. It might seem great on the moment, but in the end, you're losing IMO.

Trading picks to go up in a draft is another matter though.

Your argument is easy to turn around though by changing that to two prior 'skins first rounders. Who wouldn't trade Ramsey and Campbell for Manning? Like I said earlier, the bust rate for first round QBs is so high, you could easily waste two 1st rounders on QBs in the draft, and still come up with nothing. If I'm a GM and I can get a proven elite QB who's still young for only 2 1st-round picks, I'm pulling the trigger on that deal for sure.

[A Walton]

I mean in retrospect - 100% absolutely. Look at the 1993, 94 and 95, 96 draft

Tom Carter (17), Health Shuler (3), Michael Westbrook (4), Andre Johnson (30)

Hell I would have traded all 4 number 1 picks for a bag of peanuts.

[paloosa]

I have never seen a player that I thought was or is worth two first round choices. GM's around the league place this label on certain players because they really don't want to give up the player. But if some team is willing to give it up then they will trade that player. Has anyone ever been drafted in the first round twice? No. So why pay a higher price for a player that was drafted in the first round. I is like trying to obtain a car for a higher price than what it is valued at. You buy a car and when it goes off the lot and you automatically lost money. So why would you do that for NFL players? That is why Vinny ruined the team when he was GM. He paid too much for a lot of players and had no talent evaluating capabiliies.

[The X-Factor]

Most NFL overvalue first round picks (the Redskins on the other hand grossly undervalue them). Fact of the matter is, a first round pick is far from a sure thing. This guy calculated the percentages of busts from 1996 to 2006 and it was a staggering 56%:

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=130150

Now he's just some guy on an internet message board, but I would say his numbers are fairly accurate. Over a long period of time, teams have a 50/50 shot of getting an impact player. I would much rather sacrifice two first round picks and get a sure thing with the likes of Manning or Brady in there primes. In a league, where very little is a sure thing, those two come the closest. I also agree that not all players, like Ochocinco would be worth this price. I think if you can get a HoF caliber player at any of the skills positions you should pull the trigger,

[Botched]

Last year we drafted a left tackle in the first round, and still had a crappy offensive line. Our previous year's first rounder was a LB/DE, and our defense still sucks.

A first round draft pick isn't some magical device that automatically equates to success. It's a gamble, just like a trade would be. So hell yes I'd trade 2 first rounders for a proven elite player.

[No_Pressure]

One player does make a huge impact. Thats why you see teams who are pretty good but always missing a great QB to take them all the way. Sure, maybe a team like the 1999-2000 Ravens didn't need a good QB. Their offense was non existant...then again their defense contained how many incredible players? Lewis, Woodson, McAllister, Starks, Sharper, McCrary, Siragusa...most of those players were in the 20's at the time.

Does it really matter to the Patriots that they drafted Damien Woody and Andy Katzenmoyer in the 1st round the year before the drafted Tom Brady in the 6th? If they went back in time and everyone knew how great Brady would be, would they trade those 2 number 1's for a #1 overall the next year? You bet your ass they would, and they would even give up more.

You see, you assume that two #1 picks equals two great young players traded for one great older player. If you could trade our three 2nd round picks from 2008 prior to drafting most of you would say hell no, and with good reason. After seeing what Cerrato did with them most of you would still say hell no. Right now if you could trade all 3 of those picks for pretty much anyone from that lackluster 1st round you would probably do it, or at least trade 2 of them- Fred Davis is a good player, we just happen to have a pro bowler at his position already.

Point is you can't say you NEVER want to trade unknown for the known. Some players out there are worth two first rounders even if you picked good players, and a lot of players are worth 2 first rounders especially when taking into account what the team in question is going to do with those picks. You never really know how the draft is going to work out and if you know you want a certain player and you need two firsts to go after him then do it.

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for the following: Anybody who isn't a top 5 QB in the NFL, or top 2 or 3 at their position (If Jerry Rice age 26 is available for 2 first round picks you might consider it.)

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for anybody over the age of 27 or 28.

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for the following positions: Runningback, tight end, guard, center, defensive ends whos names don't start with "Reggie" and end with "White", any linebacker, corner, safety, kicker, punter, etc.

[Commander PK]

Nice post Rock.

You certainly made your point.

[joe]

We gave two number ones for Wilbur Marshall. He was worth it. We gave two number ones (and a number two I think) for Dave Butz. He was worth it. Nobody else comes to mind.

[SirClintonPortis]

Last year we drafted a left tackle in the first round, and still had a crappy offensive line. Our previous year's first rounder was a LB/DE, and our defense still sucks.

A first round draft pick isn't some magical device that automatically equates to success. It's a gamble, just like a trade would be. So hell yes I'd trade 2 first rounders for a proven elite player.

So both Rak and Trent are risky players then? We can't be sure that they're good players or not?

[bulldog]

It's about more than trading picks for an elite player, it's about trading for one that will cotinue to work hard and fit into the system you are running.

Too often teams trade for players that have already won a ring or have been paid and their motivation is lacking. And the new club ends up paying for a guy that produces 60% of what he did when he was in his prime.

Elway was traded at the draft for multiple high picks and was worth it.

[REEGSKINS]

sean gilbert was definately worth 2 draft picks lol.

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Let's pretend the falcons didn't pull of the Julio jones trade. Say they just drafted a normal draft. They are a solid, all around team loaded with talent and begging at a super bowl appearance, they are primed for a run. Now let's say that Larry Fitzgerald gets caught boning his coaches wife, or andre Johnson gets caught in bed with Mrs Kubiak. These guys have to leave town, bidding is high, and the falcons only option is to fork over two first rounders. You don't think the falcons would give two first rounders for fitz or Andre? You don't think, if something similar to a cutler situation happened with Aaron, rivers, Eli, or flacco, that the Fokine would offer them up?

[Coolio47]

...that he DID in fact attempt to trade TWO of our FIRST ROUND draft picks for Chad Ochocinco.

[blindlywewander]

Last year we drafted a left tackle in the first round, and still had a crappy offensive line. Our previous year's first rounder was a LB/DE, and our defense still sucks.

A first round draft pick isn't some magical device that automatically equates to success. It's a gamble, just like a trade would be. So hell yes I'd trade 2 first rounders for a proven elite player.

There should be a 'like' button on this site like on facebook. This post should have a bunch of thumbs ups.

I definitely agree. Being drafted in the 1st round means nothing. There are some statistics that argue 1st round picks have a higher chance to be successful, but it's not black and white. There isn't a sure thing. There appear to be sure things in hindsight. Peyton - sure thing coming out of college. Leaf - sure thing coming out of college.

If I had the opportunity to trade for Aaron Rodgers I'd do it in a heartbeat. Give me Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton a few years ago. Sam Bradford in a few years. Heck yeah.

Saying all that, I'm not sure any position other than QB would be worth it. No other position has the immediate impact that QB does.

---------- Post added May-27th-2011 at 02:21 AM ----------

So both Rak and Trent are risky players then? We can't be sure that they're good players or not?

Exactly. Trent played one year. Rak has performed well but when we drafted him it wasn't a gaurantee. Such a thing doesn't exist in the NFL.

[Wyvern]

An easy way to look at this would be -- in 2012, team A (0-16, but with their own franchise QB rookie) drafts Andrew Luck with the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft. They then trade the rights to Luck, to Team B (picking 17th) for team B's 1st round picks in 2012 and 2013. That kind of scenario is almost plausible -- and Luck hasn't even been signed yet or played a down.

So if Team B needed a franchise type of player (QB, MLB, etc.) and had the opportunity to get a young, "established elite" player (Marino, Peyton, Calvin Johnson, Ray Lewis, etc) in their prime -- I could easily see Team B considering such a trade to fill their needs.

However, when Vinny made the Skins' offer, Chad "Ochocinco" really didn't qualify as a young, "established elite" player in his prime -- Chad was already in the tail-end of his career and apparently was starting to decline.

[Wildbunny]

One player does make a huge impact. Thats why you see teams who are pretty good but always missing a great QB to take them all the way. Sure, maybe a team like the 1999-2000 Ravens didn't need a good QB. Their offense was non existant...then again their defense contained how many incredible players? Lewis, Woodson, McAllister, Starks, Sharper, McCrary, Siragusa...most of those players were in the 20's at the time.

Does it really matter to the Patriots that they drafted Damien Woody and Andy Katzenmoyer in the 1st round the year before the drafted Tom Brady in the 6th? If they went back in time and everyone knew how great Brady would be, would they trade those 2 number 1's for a #1 overall the next year? You bet your ass they would, and they would even give up more.

You see, you assume that two #1 picks equals two great young players traded for one great older player. If you could trade our three 2nd round picks from 2008 prior to drafting most of you would say hell no, and with good reason. After seeing what Cerrato did with them most of you would still say hell no. Right now if you could trade all 3 of those picks for pretty much anyone from that lackluster 1st round you would probably do it, or at least trade 2 of them- Fred Davis is a good player, we just happen to have a pro bowler at his position already.

Point is you can't say you NEVER want to trade unknown for the known. Some players out there are worth two first rounders even if you picked good players, and a lot of players are worth 2 first rounders especially when taking into account what the team in question is going to do with those picks. You never really know how the draft is going to work out and if you know you want a certain player and you need two firsts to go after him then do it.

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for the following: Anybody who isn't a top 5 QB in the NFL, or top 2 or 3 at their position (If Jerry Rice age 26 is available for 2 first round picks you might consider it.)

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for anybody over the age of 27 or 28.

I would never consider trading 2 first round picks for the following positions: Runningback, tight end, guard, center, defensive ends whos names don't start with "Reggie" and end with "White", any linebacker, corner, safety, kicker, punter, etc.

So, if you're Green Bay GM and the Resdkins offers you 2 1st for Rodgers, you say yes to the trade? hell no, you'll start consider it if they offer you a 3rd pick, and/or maybe a player or two.

That thing is really getting funny.

You say you can't say you never trade unknown for known. But what do we know in the Rodgers case? That he fits Green Bay offense, and that it evolves around him. Are you sure it'll be the same here? No. Worst you might even have to rework your whole offense for him.

I've read it so many times here that going after high price players, FA or not was not the way to build a team, and all of a sudden, you're dreaming about 2 1st for a Manning or Brady or whoever else, it doesn't really matters. Elite players are not to trade, simple as that. (The 49ers never quit Montana before they had Young under their belts and sure of what they have).

So, what you may have is trading 2 1st for a supposedly elite players. And here, the answer is no. You're coming with so many conditions in your post Rock, that the only players worth it, according to you, are not to trade.

Thus yeah, to me, you don't trade 2 1st for a player, you'll lose this more than you'll win.

Trading 2nd round picks to get back in the 1st round is something else. In the draft, everyone is gambling on players they want, who might suit their schemes, where players will go and so on. Here you can trade picks in an easier way. The 2008 draft tells us only two things.

First it may be bad luck that we only hit it on 1 pick out of three.

Second our draft room was totally clueless.

Choose the one you want, but at that time having three picks in the second round seemed like a good thing, but we completly screwed it. Would the Pats have completly screwed their draft with 3 picks in the 2nd? I bet no.

[wildbill1952]

Based on everything I've seen so far, no draft pick is apparently worth two other first round picks in the present. It's easy to look at draft history and see how it came out and say that so-and-so was worth two picks. Sort of like saying the Japanese should have attacked Kamchatka and not Pearl Harbor in 1941. Seeing the future results makes it easy to say what you should have done. But in the heat of the moment, trading two first round picks for any unproven draft picks appears to be a couple of fries short of a happy meal.

Trading for proven players is just as bad, since there you deny the resuts of history. Was Dave Butz worth a James Lofton or an Earl Campbell in 1978 plus a Dan Hampton or a Kellen Winslow in 1979? Easy to play the game knowing the results of history, but harder when you live in the present. Dave Butz played well and was a great Redskin, but if you play the game knowing the history, then getting Butz instead of Hampton and Campbell was a poor deal.

And of course, the assumption that a player on a complete team, like the Patriots, is going to be as good when he comes to another team without all of the parts is far-fetched. Tom Brady, with great receivers and an offensive line that gives him stellar protection and creates a running game would not be the same Tom Brady on the Redskins, where he would run for his life on every passing play and a running game is just a dream. To think otherwise, like predicting the results of this Maddenesque trade, is just fantasy.

[Darkstarr]

i actually would take a shot and give 2 1's for andrew luck.

[Chanhillbilly]

It depends on the team and where they are at. If you are a crappy team hoping that one player will get you to the promised land then no. A fine example of this is Vinny C. trying to trade two number ones for Ocho Cinco when the would have added very little to the team. Putting Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on the Bengals or Detroit probably wouldn't have helped that much. Just moved them from low mediocre to high mediocre. In the case of Atlanta trading up for Julio Jones, some may have called it a reach, but if they think they are that close and just need that one player, is it really a reach? We won't know for a year or two if it was worth it. But their WR corps could be really scary next year. Basically if your team is that bad, you need those picks not a single player.