Observation: Republican party intimidated by the worst President in U.S. history

[Wrong Direction]

Chris Christie is a nobody outside of NJ, who took office in 2010 for the first time. He does not have the name recognition or the fanatical following that Obama had at this point in the 2008 election.

I 100% disagree with this. Christie is a sensation in Republican circles. I think the far right questions him because he's not part of the lawsuit against Obamacare, but he's the single candidate who would make most other R candidates meaningless. As it stands, they all have some hope. With him, almost none would.

[mcsluggo]

it is a bit funny around these parts... around 3 months ago, the unquestioned "conventional wisdom" around here was that Obama was a bit of a long shot to re-peat, and now it is entirely flipped to Obama is a lock unless he screws it up.

election season is long... there is plenty of time for macaca moments, and also for "I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."

tides turn, and quickly sometimes.

---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 04:29 PM ----------

It is sad but probably true to say that Christie is too fat and ugly to be elected president.

Americans don't want fat, ugly or bald presidents.... they should all look and act like Harrison Ford.

[The Evil Genius]

it is a bit funny around these parts... around 3 months ago, the unquestioned "conventional wisdom" around here was that Obama was a bit of a long shot to re-peat

Of who? The neo-cons?

Some of us have been saying all along that Obama is a lock in 2012.

Why?

Because it takes a popular Governor who has name recognition and isn't a part of or caters to (or has to kiss the feet of) the opposing parties fringe element to unseat sitting Presidents.

The last 2 sitting Presidents to lose re-election lost to this type of polician.

I don't see any of them in the GOP, do you?

[JMS]

I 100% disagree with this. Christie is a sensation in Republican circles. I think the far right questions him because he's not part of the lawsuit against Obamacare, but he's the single candidate who would make most other R candidates meaningless. As it stands, they all have some hope. With him, almost none would.

Come on man you have to be a pretty motivated follower of internal GOP machinations to have even heard of Christie. He's never appeared before in a national stage, nor has he plowed the field to represent himself as a national player. He's a total unknown even namewise for more than 90% of the country.

Obama announced himself in one of the best received and most coveted campaign speech slots in the entire Democratic National Convention; and built on it from there for four years. There was a ground swell for Obama that was immense prior to his announcing. That's the only reason he announced was because his support was so vocal and unwavering... Also top Democratic money men were defecting away from Hillary almost from the beginning to endorse Obama.. Not most or many, but enough to make Obama's run viable... I don't see Christie's candidate rivaling the first serious black presidential run in what remains a significantly liberal Democratic Party. I also think Obama benefited almost immediately both by Hillarys icy re-pore inside the Dem Party and the wide dissatisfaction with a return to Clinton Rule by a few important Democrat inside men.

I'm not saying Christie couldn't do it. I'm saying he would have a tougher road to hoe than Obama did in 2008 and that was a pretty improbable victory in and of itself.

[Wrong Direction]

Come on man you have to be a pretty motivated follower of internal GOP machinations to have even heard of Christie. He's never appeared before in a national stage, nor has he plowed the field to represent himself as a national player. He's a total unknown even namewise for more than 90% of the country.

I think you're just wrong about this. He's #1 in the tracking poll as of the end of April.

http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/28/chris-christie-continues-to-perform-best-in-in-dailycallerconservativehome-tracking-poll-paul-ryan-makes-strong-debut-showing/

This talks about his popularity:

http://race42012.com/2011/03/15/the-across-the-base-popularity-of-chris-christie/

As Streeter points out, should Christie decide to run in 2012, he would appear to be the only GOP candidate with support from establishment types, grass-roots conservatives, and Tea Party activists and thus appears to be the sought-after “dream candidate.”

And, last but not least, this one says that he was the nation's most popular politician as of March 8, 2011.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2011/03/poll_chris_christie_is_nations.html

To support your point, 55% were not familiar with Christie in the last poll. That's of all respondents though, not just R's.

[JMS]

Some of us have been saying all along that Obama is a lock in 2012.

I don't think Obama's a lock. I think Obama is vulnerable on the left which oddly enough is his base. Obama is a moderate pragmatic right leaning President who collected the ire of the right.

Obama is also vulnerable on the economy, and on a host of other issues like healthcare, deficites, and taxes. He's a man who has basically failed to deliver on most of the promises he campagned on.

His strengths however dove tail into the weaknesses of those coming at him from the right... Obama is going to be tough to beat; but not imposible.

[Hersh]

I think there are 4 major factors that possible R candidates are weighing now and comparing them to the situation in 2016.

1. Going against the first black President will mean another record turnout by black people in 2012. Doubtful it's as high in 2016.

2. If the economy continues to improve, Obama gets even stronger.

3. They all have to defend Paul Ryan's plan to dismantle medicare which is going to be used to beat Republicans over the head all election season. It was an unbelievably stupid vote politically.

4. In 2016, the Democrat will be someone that currently lacks name recognition. Remember, VP Joe Biden will be 74 so I doubt he runs.

[88Comrade2000]

You know they said similar things about the 92 field and we got Bubba for 8 years. Anything is possible.

Here's probably why:

1. Obama really only needs to convince about 10% of the electorate to win. Obama has the black vote. Obama has the liberal vote. He will still get the majority of the hispanic vote. So, he needs to convince just enough of the swing vote to get him to 270.

2. The republicans aren't really united. There's a big disconnect between the establishment and the tea party and that will continue to be played in the 2012 primaries. The congressional primaries will be just as important or maybe even more important than the presidential primaries. The tea party will want to make sure they have solid control of congress.

3. The so called Republican stars have little national experience and would just suffer the same arguement. After Obama, you are going to give it someone who also had little experience going in.

---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 12:55 PM ----------

Does anyone see any potential for fireworks at the Republican National Convention next year?

In my other thread, I said it wouldn't shock me to see the race head into convention.

---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 01:03 PM ----------

I think Romney is the best chance the GOP has.

Then they are going to lose and lose badly. Slick Romney will flip his stand on any issue just to get votes. Also, I still believe the Romneycare thing will all but kill his candidacy. I think PAwlenty or Daniels could do better than Romney. If Romney is the care, I really doubt the tea party will support him in the fall and will instead just focus on the congressional races and maybe even run their own candidate in the fall.

[JMS]

I think you're just wrong about this. He's #1 in the tracking poll as of the end of April.

Mitt Romney is the #1 GOP Candidate and was long before he declaired. Not Christie who just won his first term in offfice as the Gov of one of the smallest states in the union in 2010.

The campaigne doesn't begin when these folks announce it's been going on since shortly after Obama took the oath of office.

Romney picked as 2012 GOP front-runner

http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-28/politics/cpac_1_straw-poll-conservative-political-action-conference-mitt-romney?_s=PM:POLITICS

•Mitt Romney 16%

•Newt Gingrich 15%

•Mike Huckabee 11%

•Chris Christie 9%

•Sarah Palin 8%

•Mitch Daniels 3%

•Michele Bachmann 3%

•Tim Pawlenty 2%

•Jon Huntsman 1%

•Undecided/Someone else 32%

Note: This poll was conducted before Mike Huckabee announced he would not run for President.

Survey of 689 likely Republican primary voters was conducted May 11-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.73 percentage points.

http://race42012.com/category/poll-watch/

This talks about his popularity:

http://race42012.com/2011/03/15/the-across-the-base-popularity-of-chris-christie/

That isn't a poll or a scientific survey. That's an oppinion by one guy with a blog.

And, last but not least, this one says that he was the nation's most popular politician as of March 8, 2011.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2011/03/poll_chris_christie_is_nations.html

"a Qunnipiac University poll released yesterday", what is a Quinnipiac University poll?

Also I fail to find any such claims convincing from a publication marked as NJ.com about the current governor of NJ...

I did pick this up though from your NJ.com link......

He’s (Christie's ) not so hot at home, however, where a Rutgers-Eagleton poll today shows New Jerseyans are split on how much they like him.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2011/03/poll_chris_christie_is_nations.html

To support your point, 55% were not familiar with Christie in the last poll. That's of all respondents though, not just R's.

you must be joking. 90% of Americans don't know the significance of Pearl Harbor and WWII and we are expected to believe half know who the first term less than a year in office Gov of N.J is?

I'll bet you 50% of Americans can't name the current VP or chief justice much less Christie.

Again, a guy who is unpopular in his state, after less than a year in office and who few know outside of the GOP is not a winning hand against an incombant president... I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just that it's unlikely...

But that's just my opinion. I think a guy like General Patreas would be a much stronger canddiate for the GOP against a guy like Obama. Somebody who has the name recognition and trust of the country, with his own sizable popularity which crosses party lines. Christie is too new to the stage, and his message doesn't cross the GOP much less the political spectrum.

[88Comrade2000]

The problem with declaring this early is people will tire of them by the end of the year. I think you will see better candidates towards the end of the year.

The first primaries are in February or they could be moved back to January like last time if Florida doesn't move up their date.

If you want to run for the nomination, you pretty much need to be up and running by Fourth of July. The only exception would be Sarah Palin- who's name recognition and popularity among the base afford her a later start. Still, she would have to pretty much announce by labor day.

[Hersh]

The first primaries are in February or they could be moved back to January like last time if Florida doesn't move up their date.

If you want to run for the nomination, you pretty much need to be up and running by Fourth of July. The only exception would be Sarah Palin- who's name recognition and popularity among the base afford her a later start. Still, she would have to pretty much announce by labor day.

Also, anyone that's running needs to start raising money asap.

[TradeTheBeal!]

The GOP hoping to win with Palin is like the Redskins hoping to win with Rex Grossman.

I like the skins chances better.

[SnyderShrugged]

Also, anyone that's running needs to start raising money asap.

This^^

I think that Romneys huge fundraising event yesterday may have ensured his candidacy. You are so correct that money is a driving force at this early stage of the game. I heard Juan Williams say the other day, that Haley Barbour opted out because the funds werent coming in fast enough. This is also why I am so pleased at Ron Pauls early fundraising successes already too, at least it will keep him in the game long enough to help shape the debate and maybe even attract new supporters. Its definitely attracted the attention of some pundits that I never would have dreamt would say anything positive about it

[cedk]

We're talking about the worst leader in the history of humanity people! Why are the big time Republicans cowering in a corner and refusing to run? Could it be that Obama's been pretty good?

Quality Republican candidates fear the Democrats favorite weapon......The race or racist card the Democrats love to use! They have been using on most issues.......Simply put if you disagree with the Prez your a RACIST!

[Predicto]

Quality Republican candidates fear the Democrats favorite weapon......The race or racist card the Democrats love to use! They have been using on most issues.......Simply put if you disagree with the Prez your a RACIST!

oh for god's sake. :doh:

[JMS]

Also, anyone that's running needs to start raising money asap.

Yep. Mitt Romney started raising money before Obama was sworn in for 2012. If you wait until you announce you are already at a significant disadvantage.

[Burgold]

Quality Republican candidates fear the Democrats favorite weapon......The race or racist card the Democrats love to use! They have been using on most issues.......Simply put if you disagree with the Prez your a RACIST!

Silly and untrue, esp. given how often libs and dems have disagreed vocally and on record with the President.

That said, I do remember when disagreeing with the President made you anti-American and a traitor, but that wasn't Democratic logic at all.

I do think the idea of a serious horse not entering the race early is an interesting thought. I wonder if the Bloombergs or others of high stature are waiting to see how the field starts to play out.

[Predicto]

Yep. Mitt Romney started raising money before Obama was sworn in for 2012. If you wait until you announce you are already at a significant disadvantage.

George W. Bush provided the template back in 2000. He didn't campaign at all at first. All he did was lock up the money from all the reliable GOP sources before anyone else could. John McCain, Liddy Dole and Pat Buchanan were all thought to be contenders, but only McCain had a ghost of a chance due to his unique name recognition.

George W. Bush became the early front-runner, acquiring unprecedented funding and a broad base of leadership support based on his governorship of Texas and the name recognition and connections of the Bush family... Several aspirants withdrew before the Iowa Caucus because they were unable to secure funding and endorsements sufficient to remain competitive with Bush. These included Elizabeth Dole, Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander, and Robert C. Smith. Pat Buchanan dropped out to run for the Reform Party nomination. That left Bush, John McCain, Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer, and Orrin Hatch as the only candidates still in the race.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000

If Mitt Romney is raising money as successfully, then the nomination race is pretty much over already.

[Jeeb]

Well now that The Donald has said he isn't running, I think the GOP is in some real trouble...

That statement, if totally serious, just goes to show the absurdity of the GOP.

[bird_1972]

If Mitt Romney is raising money as successfully, then the nomination race is pretty much over already.

Romney still has to win the primaries which may be difficult to do given how both Rs and Ds that aren't incumbents have to appeal to the base of their party. Romney has both his record and, unfortunately, his religion that may be significant obstacles to securing that support among Rs no matter how much money he has in his war chest.

[cedk]

oh for god's sake. :doh:

You kidding....I barely follow this crap.....but Dems love race card....and we been warned.........wake up folks.....this may be the

most racially dividing election in our history.....Thanks democrats!

I hope Jindale decides to run to stop Democrats racism!

Silly and untrue, esp. given how often libs and dems have disagreed vocally and on record with the President.

.

Tavis Smiley: 2012 Will Be "The Most Racist" Election Everhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/vid...tion_ever.html

and

Whoopi On Race Card: "I'm Playing The Damn Card Now"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/04/27/whoopi_on_race_card_im_playing_the_damn_card_now.html

Just more proof of the race baiting Democrats.....What can we do?....they have no problem tearing the people apart...Its sad......

Lets not forget the Tea party they been called racist from the start..... I don't need a link for that.....now do I

Birthers are not just loonies now but racist too.....Why of course......

Birtherist response highlights racial undertones of ‘debate’

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thetic...-the-president

"There is a real deep-seated and vicious racism at work here in terms of trying to de-legitimate the president," Peniel Joseph, a professor of history at Tufts University, told The Ticket.

[Predicto]

I barely follow this crap.....

I can tell.

[santanathegreat]

Quality Republican candidates fear the Democrats favorite weapon......The race or racist card the Democrats love to use! They have been using on most issues.......Simply put if you disagree with the Prez your a RACIST!

Oh please. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

[Clutch03]

Quality Republican candidates fear the Democrats favorite weapon......The race or racist card the Democrats love to use! They have been using on most issues.......Simply put if you disagree with the Prez your a RACIST!

So your saying a white candidate can't win the presidency because of his/her skin color!! This would be a first!!!

[Predicto]

Romney still has to win the primaries which may be difficult to do given how both Rs and Ds that aren't incumbents have to appeal to the base of their party. Romney has both his record and, unfortunately, his religion that may be significant obstacles to securing that support among Rs no matter how much money he has in his war chest.

That might be true, but for Romney to lose the nomination there has to be another candidate who wins.

Money talks, and unless some insurgent candidate comes up with a new way to raise money (like the way Obama did with his social network stuff), it's going to be really hard to overcome Romney's enormous money advantage if he successfully sets himself up as the establishment/business candidate the way Bush did.