Redskins.com: Virginia Tech's Williams Eager To be Main Man

[blindlywewander]

No wait, you are right...I hate long touchdown plays. They are so random.

I disagree because I think Torrain and Keiland are fine short yardage backs. Both can hit the holes quickly, lower their shoulders, and move bodies back. What we are lacking is a change of pace back and more importantly an offensive line that can run the system.

Look at the Top 10 rushers last year... 8 of them are 4.4 guys... and 4 out of the Top 6 have been clocked in the 4.3s or lower. Those numbers don't lie man.... Speed kills in this league and we don't have it at RB position- plain and simple.

RW has been clocked as a 4.4 runner. So by your own argument he's what we need.

And maybe we were watching different games last year. We looked awful on third and short run.

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

I might suggest that you contemplate the difference between a need and a want.

The NFL's leading rusher last season who happened to play in a scheme that is at least partially derived from that of our current coaches ran the 40 between 4.58 and 4.76. The NFL's 11th leading rusher was even drafted by our HC and he ran the 40 between 4.54 and 4.72. Are you sure you don't want to re-evaluate your position?

Here is my position if I didn't make it clear the first time around. We don't "need" another running back with marginal speed. We have some young guys who are similar to RW and played well in a new system with a terrible o-line. If we are to get another back, I personally "want" someone who can shake things up and cause match-up problems with blazing speed.

I knew you would mention Arian Foster, but where is he at without arguably the most dangerous passing attack in the NFL? Do you think teams would play the Texans differently if they didn't have to worry about Andre and Shaub? Houston has been at the bottom of the league for several years when it comes to running the ball, so it's no surprise to me that teams built their game plan around stopping the pass and Foster (who is much bigger than RW) was able to break-out and have a great season. Let's see if he's in the Top 5 next year...

My point is that the numbers don't lie and 80% of the top running backs in the league in 2010 were burners. This isn't 1998 and we should stop talking about Terrell Davis because the league and it's players have changed a lot since then.

[NewCliche21]

I'm 90% positive he was talking about 40 times, not YPC.

.

:doh:

[Enter Apotheosis]

Here is my position if I didn't make it clear the first time around. We don't "need" another running back with marginal speed. We have some young guys who are similar to RW and played well in a new system with a terrible o-line. If we are to get another back, I personally "want" someone who can shake things up and cause match-up problems with blazing speed.

I would say that your point of view is fair albeit not particularly wise.

I knew you would mention Arian Foster, but where is he at without arguably the most dangerous passing attack in the NFL? Do you think teams would play the Texans differently if they didn't have to worry about Andre and Shaub? Houston has been at the bottom of the league for several years when it comes to running the ball, so it's no surprise to me that teams built their game plan around stopping the pass and Foster (who is much bigger than RW) was able to break-out and have a great season. Let's see if he's in the Top 5 next year...

We'll see what happens with Foster next season but it is quite clear that you're not giving him nearly enough credit. Here's some food for thought, though...

Number of Big Runs in 2010 (# of carries/20+ yards/40+ yards)

Chris Johnson (316/14/4)

Jamal Charles (230/10/3)

Adrian Peterson (283/9/2)

Arian Foster (327/12/3)

Ryan Torain (164/7/1)

As it turns out, having elite speed doesn't necessarily translate into having a lot more big plays.

My point is that the numbers don't lie and 80% of the top running backs in the league in 2010 were burners. This isn't 1998 and we should stop talking about Terrell Davis because the league and it's players have changed a lot since then.

All you achieved was pointing out a rough correlation between speed and success. Well, no ****ing ****... speed is always an asset in football. However, the fact that there are exceptions just goes to show you that speed isn't everything. When it comes down to it, I'll take a guy like Peyton Hillis over a guy like Reggie Bush any day.

[adamyesme1111]

It would be so cool if he got drafted by the Redskins. Never had a friend in the NFL but Ryan is a buddy of mine and we go back to middle school when he was even being scouted by colleges in 8th grade because he was such a physical specimen. Now, he really isn't that great physically but he will give it 100 percent all the time. He is the anti-Haynesworth type of runningback. He will be in the weight room for hours and hours after practice, especially if he gets his shot in the NFL. Man if the Redskins drafted him it would be cool.

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

RW has been clocked as a 4.4 runner. So by your own argument he's what we need.

I never read into Pro Day 40 times very much... He was a hair under 4.6 at the combine and I'll go with that.

Chris Johnson (316/14/4)

Jamal Charles (230/10/3)

Adrian Peterson (283/9/2)

Arian Foster (327/12/3)

Ryan Torain (164/7/1)

As it turns out, having elite speed doesn't necessarily translate into having a lot more big plays.

Please, Wise Wizard of Football Statistical Reference, explain to me what these numbers mean and how they support your argument. Three of those guys run in the 4.3s, while Torrain and Foster run in 4.5s on a good day... We have already established that Arian Foster had an amazing season but the fastest guy on your list above also had the most number of big plays... by a lot... not to mention the fact that every team who plays the Titans has one guy to worry about stopping each week.

I am not saying that "every fast running back is better than every slow running back" although that seems to be what your ears are hearing. My argument has to do with The Redskins, our current roster, Ryan Williams, and the 41st pick.

I like Peyton Hillis as a football player much more than Reggie Bush, but if you plugged Peyton into our team right now he wouldn't do any better than Torain. (In fact, Torain had more yards per carry and yards per game than Hillis) However, if you add Reggie Bush to our offense I think the dynamics change greatly and we become a much tougher team to defend against.

That is my position and I don't feel the need to re-evaluate it, statboy. It's about personel on both sides of the ball and my argument is rooted in the belief that we don't need a newer version of something we already have if it's going to cost us the 41st pick in the draft.

[WALL-LE]

^ exactly u pointed out that what speed doesnt mean you et 40+ yard runs???

do u know how rare it is to have 40 yd runs.. and elite speed does mean big plays.

case in point: DJax, Bbanks, CJ2k, Jamal Charles, Mccluster, Sproles etc... the list goes on.

Your stats showed nothing

[Enter Apotheosis]

Let me loosely normalize those numbers over 320 carries for each back, then, since you guys are having such a hard time digesting the significance of them. In fact, I'll even throw in the remaining top 10 backs in terms of runs of 20 or more yards for 2010 and toss in their 40-time.

Top 10 Ranked Backs in Terms of Big Runs in 2010 (normalized over a 320 carry load):

Darren McFadden: 20 of 20+, 6 of 40+, 4.33

Brandon Jacobs: 20 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.56

LaGarette Blount: 16 of 20+, 5 of 40+, 4.70

Ahmad Bradshaw: 15 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.55

Chris Johnson: 14 of 20+, 4 of 40+, 4.23

Jamal Charles: 14 of 20+, 4 of 40+, 4.38

Ryan Torain: 14 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.61

Arian Foster: 12 of 20+, 3 of 40+, 4.68

Matt Forte: 12 of 20+, 3 of 40+, 4.44

Rashard Mendenhall: 11 of 20+, 1 of 40+, 4.41

Adrian Peterson: 10 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.40

Michael Turner: 9 of 20+, 1 of 40+, 4.49

So are you guys noticing that pure speed seemingly has very little to do with the likelihood of a back to break a big run yet? The fastest of the fast tended to have perhaps one more run of 40+ than everyone else over the course of their 320 carry average but, Darren McFadden aside, the slower backs tended to get more runs of 20+. All in all I'd say it evens out nicely.

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

Let me loosely normalize those numbers over 320 carries for each back, then, since you guys are having such a hard time digesting the significance of them. In fact, I'll even throw in the remaining top 10 backs in terms of runs of 20 or more yards for 2010 and toss in their 40-time.

Top 10 Ranked Backs in Terms of Big Runs in 2010 (normalized over a 320 carry load):

Darren McFadden: 20 of 20+, 6 of 40+, 4.33

Brandon Jacobs: 20 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.56

LaGarette Blount: 16 of 20+, 5 of 40+, 4.70

Ahmad Bradshaw: 15 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.55

Chris Johnson: 14 of 20+, 4 of 40+, 4.23

Jamal Charles: 14 of 20+, 4 of 40+, 4.38

Ryan Torain: 14 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.61

Arian Foster: 12 of 20+, 3 of 40+, 4.68

Matt Forte: 12 of 20+, 3 of 40+, 4.44

Rashard Mendenhall: 11 of 20+, 1 of 40+, 4.41

Adrian Peterson: 10 of 20+, 2 of 40+, 4.40

Michael Turner: 9 of 20+, 1 of 40+, 4.49

So are you guys noticing that pure speed seemingly has very little to do with the likelihood of a back to break a big run yet? The fastest of the fast tended to have perhaps one more run of 40+ than everyone else over the course of their 320 carry average but, Darren McFadden aside, the slower backs tended to get more runs of 20+. All in all I'd say it evens out nicely.

Sure that's cool but "homerun" type plays to me is more than just a 22 yard scamper up the middle for a first down. Look at those 40+ plus plays and every single back who runs in the 4.3's (or better) has at least 4 of them, while with the exception of Blount (who is actually one of my favorite non-Redskins in the league right now) all the other "slow" backs are sitting on 2 with the exception of Foster who had a career season.

Your stats keep proving my point.... Not that faster running backs are better running backs, but that they offer something the Redskins don't currently have.

[Enter Apotheosis]

Sure that's cool but "homerun" type plays to me is more than just a 22 yard scamper up the middle for a first down. Look at those 40+ plus plays and every single back who runs in the 4.3's (or better) has at least 4 of them, while with the exception of Blount (who is actually one of my favorite non-Redskins in the league right now) all the other "slow" backs are sitting on 2 with the exception of Foster who had a career season.

Your stats keep proving my point.... Not that faster running backs are better running backs, but that they offer something the Redskins don't currently have.

The league leader in runs of 40+ was actually LeSean McCoy, who had 5 on just over 200 carries (projects to 8 over 320). He's a 4.5 guy.

That's somewhat beside the point, though. You keep arguing that we should avoid a back like RW because he doesn't offer something different. The real question is why does that matter? What we should be looking for at every position is something better than what we have. If RW can come in and average 5 ypc (certainly not saying he will) even without that explosive 40+ ability, wouldn't you take him in a heartbeat?

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

The league leader in runs of 40+ was actually LeSean McCoy, who had 5 on just over 200 carries (projects to 8 over 320). He's a 4.5 guy.

That's somewhat beside the point, though. You keep arguing that we should avoid a back like RW because he doesn't offer something different. The real question is why does that matter? What we should be looking for at every position is something better than what we have. If RW can come in and average 5 ypc (certainly not saying he will) even without that explosive 40+ ability, wouldn't you take him in a heartbeat?

No doubt, but Adrian Peterson wouldn't even run for 5 ypc on this team. Nothing I see from RW (tape/measurables) leads me to believe he brings anything to the table that could be considered an upgrade. With the abundance of lousiness on this roster, (especially up front) I just think the 41st pick is too valuable for a rebuilding program to waste on any skill position.

The young RBs on our team were actually one of the few bright spots last year and a total surprise (to me at least) so let's just build on that. We have arguably the greatest coach in the history of finding late-round/no-name runners in the NFL, so why force something that's unnecessary?

[NewCliche21]

I'm wondering how one quantifies a "home run" (man I hate using other sports references for football) play? Do we have to look at the player's longest TD? Carry to TD average? That wouldn't work, since it could just be a goal line runner.

I just don't know how to make this argument using a statistic when there are no statistics to back it up. I'm not saying that you're wrong, but I am wondering how to argue it using facts.

[Chump Bailey]

Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns and Tatum Bell. Pretty damn close!

This is true and a poor choice of words on my part, which I'll own up to and eat. All of them had at least one season of 1,000 yards or more although Droughns was not drafted by Mike. MS has shown he is willing to draft a RB high though on two occasions. I would not be surprised if Mike selects Williams. I'd personally go in a different direction, but do think we need to address the position.

[Voice_of_Reason]

To me, this would be a luxury pick, but not a bad one. They need help in just about every spot except for LT, SS and OLB. RB fits into that category, I guess....

EDIT: Sorry, I forgot one: TE. And they need 1 OLB, but the other is covered... So, 4 solid pieces, 18 to go...

[Enter Apotheosis]

This isn't 1998 and we should stop talking about Terrell Davis because the league and it's players have changed a lot since then.

For some reason I found myself thinking about this line again. I've noticed a couple of people on ES now who seem to be downplaying just how good TD really was before his knees gave out. He's certainly not fresh in the minds of many football fans at this point and there really isn't even much in the way of highlight material on YouTube, which is somewhat unfortunate.

I had a little side project in the works that I ultimately shelved last offseason that was somewhat akin to the massive 3-4 thread I did but with a focus on the running game. Dug up quite a bit of footage on TD as part of that and, I have to say, there are certain guys you wouldn't pass up on regardless of which era they played in. TD would definitely be one of them for me.

I'm wondering how one quantifies a "home run" (man I hate using other sports references for football) play? Do we have to look at the player's longest TD? Carry to TD average? That wouldn't work, since it could just be a goal line runner.

I just don't know how to make this argument using a statistic when there are no statistics to back it up. I'm not saying that you're wrong, but I am wondering how to argue it using facts.

The closest you can get to statistically defining a home run play in football would be to look at runs of 40+ yards. It's far from a perfect statistic and there are so many variables at play on big runs that I would argue that it is impossible to quantitatively categorize a player as a home run threat.

[darrelgreenie]

For some reason I found myself thinking about this line again. I've noticed a couple of people on ES now who seem to be downplaying just how good TD really was before his knees gave out. He's certainly not fresh in the minds of many football fans at this point and there really isn't even much in the way of highlight material on YouTube, which is somewhat unfortunate.

I had a little side project in the works that I ultimately shelved last offseason that was somewhat akin to the massive 3-4 thread I did but with a focus on the running game. Dug up quite a bit of footage on TD as part of that and, I have to say, there are certain guys you wouldn't pass up on regardless of which era they played in. TD would definitely be one of them for me.

I was saying earlier this thread that our run game playcalling under Kyle was very vanilla.

It basically consisted of inside zone, outside zone and stretch vs Mike's Denver WCO which was multidimensional not just inside-zone outside zone it had pulling, trapping, draws and the toss.

(If you look back at running game it was soo vanilla, we ran inside and outside zone but we seldom (IIRC never) ran some of the other staple runs of the Mike S. Denver WCO like the the inside trap or pulled the OGs on an outside toss.)

Below are some elements that were missing from Kyle's running game: Inside Trap/Draw

Another element missing: The Toss:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3HtvBdam5A

Some TD just fur scuz:

[Enter Apotheosis]

I was saying earlier this thread that our run game playcalling under Kyle was very vanilla.

It basically consisted of inside zone, outside zone and stretch vs Mike's Denver WCO which was multidimensional not just inside-zone outside zone it had pulling, trapping, draws and the toss.

We'll have to see what happens in year two, specifically if we can get a little more raw talent on the oline. I still get the feeling we'll show a little more balance and variety once our short game becomes more consistent.

[darrelgreenie]

We'll have to see what happens in year two, specifically if we can get a little more raw talent on the oline. I still get the feeling we'll show a little more balance and variety once our short game becomes more consistent.

I hope so and because when 60-40 (65-35) is what we're up against you can't help but become more balanced.

I know the OL wasn't the best but it wasn't so bad that Kyle couldn't have been a little more committed or diverse in running game.

Right now I get the Andy Reid/Josh McDaniels pass-pass-pass vibe, not that there's anything wrong with that sort of thing.

[Tweedr01]

I never read into Pro Day 40 times very much... He was a hair under 4.6 at the combine and I'll go with that.

Please, Wise Wizard of Football Statistical Reference, explain to me what these numbers mean and how they support your argument. Three of those guys run in the 4.3s, while Torrain and Foster run in 4.5s on a good day... We have already established that Arian Foster had an amazing season but the fastest guy on your list above also had the most number of big plays... by a lot... not to mention the fact that every team who plays the Titans has one guy to worry about stopping each week.

I am not saying that "every fast running back is better than every slow running back" although that seems to be what your ears are hearing. My argument has to do with The Redskins, our current roster, Ryan Williams, and the 41st pick.

I like Peyton Hillis as a football player much more than Reggie Bush, but if you plugged Peyton into our team right now he wouldn't do any better than Torain. (In fact, Torain had more yards per carry and yards per game than Hillis) However, if you add Reggie Bush to our offense I think the dynamics change greatly and we become a much tougher team to defend against.

That is my position and I don't feel the need to re-evaluate it, statboy. It's about personel on both sides of the ball and my argument is rooted in the belief that we don't need a newer version of something we already have if it's going to cost us the 41st pick in the draft.

wait, come again? one guy to worry about on the titans? so they don't have to worry about bo scaife, randy moss, nate washington, kenny britt, or vince young? you're right, there's only 1 good player on their team, my bad

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

wait, come again? one guy to worry about on the titans? so they don't have to worry about bo scaife, randy moss, nate washington, kenny britt, or vince young? you're right, there's only 1 good player on their team, my bad

Bo Scaife is pretty good but he averages 2 TDs a season and has never scored more than 4 in a year. You don't gameplan around Bo Scaife.

Randy Moss had 6 catches in 4 games for the Titans. Child please.

Nate Washington is a good number 2 or number 3 receiver but are you saying you would draft him in the 1st round of your fantasy league?

Kenny Britt has all the talent in the world but he makes Dez Bryant look like Bryant Gumble... Hard to be a factor when you are constantly getting arrested/suspended.

Vince Young is a head case with a career passer rating of 75.7... So in other words, he is pretty much the main reason that other teams only have to worry about CJ.

[kiingspadee]

The way I see it is other than Torain who do we really have? Keiland is kinda hit and miss. If he is there in the 2nd why not draft a very young guy that solidifies our running game for years. I mean why pass on him and hope that in years to come we may find a RB that can fit our scheme and help us out. If he is there in the 2nd - grab him without a thought

And besides the NFL the way it is - it is a 2 back league. Ryan with Torain could be pretty awesome

[Tweedr01]

Bo Scaife is pretty good but he averages 2 TDs a season and has never scored more than 4 in a year. You don't gameplan around Bo Scaife.

Randy Moss had 6 catches in 4 games for the Titans. Child please.

Nate Washington is a good number 2 or number 3 receiver but are you saying you would draft him in the 1st round of your fantasy league?

Kenny Britt has all the talent in the world but he makes Dez Bryant look like Bryant Gumble... Hard to be a factor when you are constantly getting arrested/suspended.

Vince Young is a head case with a career passer rating of 75.7... So in other words, he is pretty much the main reason that other teams only have to worry about CJ.

lol, so you don't gameplan around randy moss even though he is one of the best WR to ever play the game

and because kenny britt has off more off field issues that somehow affects his on field play?

nate washington IS a threat because he is a good number 2 playing against a nickel corner, I don't know how much easier that can be explained

ok little guy, whatever you say

bo scaife and to an extent vince young I understand, but while vince young is a headcase with a mediocre passer rating, he wins.

if it wasn't for the rookie qb coming in against us vince young would have continued to march up and down the field

EDIT: what I'm getting at is CJ is a fantastic specimen, but you don't think the talent around him allows him to excel further? he just does it all on his own?

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

lol, so you don't gameplan around randy moss even though he is one of the best WR to ever play the game

and because kenny britt has off more off field issues that somehow affects his on field play?

nate washington IS a threat because he is a good number 2 playing against a nickel corner, I don't know how much easier that can be explained

ok little guy, whatever you say

bo scaife and to an extent vince young I understand, but while vince young is a headcase with a mediocre passer rating, he wins.

if it wasn't for the rookie qb coming in against us vince young would have continued to march up and down the field

EDIT: what I'm getting at is CJ is a fantastic specimen, but you don't think the talent around him allows him to excel further? he just does it all on his own?

Hahaha why am I "little guy"? Does that make you "big guy"? I can promise that you wouldn't bully me in real life so don't try do it on a message board either.

I am not saying the rest of the Titans offense completely sucks, but they may have one of the most inconsistent groups of skill players in the league. Other than perhaps Nate Washington and Bo Scaife (neither of whom are Top 20 in their position IMO), the only other player you can rely on in that offense week-to-week is CJ.

Therefore, every NFL coach is saying the same thing each week when they play the Titans... "We must contain Chris Johnson this week." Then, you figure out whichever of their mediocre QBs is playing that week, or which of their dysfunctional WRs is in the line-up, and you start to talk about them too.

[darrelgreenie]

Bobby Turner the running back whisperer speaks....

http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/videos/Bobby-Turner-Part-One/9703101b-93f2-42f6-b2e8-306148bac3c2#?id=9703101b-93f2-42f6-b2e8-306148bac3c2

http://blog.redskins.com/2011/04/14/bobby-turner-discusses-drafting-running-backs/

"We're looking for talent,".... "I'm looking for the next Terrell Davis. We're talking about a guy in the late rounds that can produce and help you win World Championships year in and year out."........"We're looking for that type of player in the later rounds."......"Oh, definitely, definitely," he said. "And it's not one [prospect], and I'm not gonna say it's 10. You never know. If I knew, I wouldn't be sitting here."

[Est.1974]

if i was only 27 i could maybe be a mile high.....

In a thread about a RB, this made me think about Knowshon Moreno.