The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[nuposse87]

Forget Noel's injury because the real question is how would he make the Wizards better? I don't think he does much because this team is desperately in need of efficient offensive players. Rebounding and defense weren't a big problem last year. The biggest problem is scoring. Who in the draft best fits that need for the Wiz?

 

This is fair. Noel's addition would be to supplant Okafor as our defensive anchor for the future with Nene moving over to center. The thing we'd have to look for in either '14 or '15 would be a stretch 4 or just a well rounded PF. 

 

I think the long term issue for the wiz is replacing the bigmen cause Seraphin and Booker cannot be relied upon. The short term problem is bench scoring. Our starters are fine IMO, our bench is wretched. 

[CrypticVillain]

And noel is like 19...he is going to get stronger. Just cause a guy has an ACL tear doesn't mean you completely discount his talent IF the doctors clear him. 

 

Also look at a lot of Noel's block, he isn't jumping that high IMO, he has elite blocking instincts. I think he'll be just as good defensively even when he's 30 and his leaping has left him. 

No he doesn't jump high. But he still jumps, and he cuts, and he runs. I just don't know if his knee can handle the workload that the NBA will have for him. I hope it does, I love Noel. I just wouldn't take him with my top 5 pick because it's too much of a risk.

[nuposse87]

65%, 20 TDs, only 5 INTs and 8.14 average per pass means he's a "good" passer but not top 5?  Sheesh, tough crowd.

 

Brees, Brady, Manning, Rogers, Ryan are all better pocket passers. The point is unproveable to me, as I think RG III will retain his high level of athleticism for 6-8 years more so people will always have to consider him a threat. Lucky for him he can actually become a better pocket passer in that time as well and won't have to rely on the reed option and play action stuff. I don't hate the guy fwiw. I just think he still has considerable room for improvement sans his athleticism, which speaks volume to his potential. 

 

Which is also why Noel is my number 1 choice, cause even without super elite athleticism he has ELITE INSTINCTS defensively. Big men don't show their true colors till they're 23-24 IMO. 

[nuposse87]

And noel is like 19...he is going to get stronger. Just cause a guy has an ACL tear doesn't mean you completely discount his talent IF the doctors clear him. 

 

Also look at a lot of Noel's block, he isn't jumping that high IMO, he has elite blocking instincts. I think he'll be just as good defensively even when he's 30 and his leaping has left him. 

No he doesn't jump high. But he still jumps, and he cuts, and he runs. I just don't know if his knee can handle the workload that the NBA will have for him. I hope it does, I love Noel. I just wouldn't take him with my top 5 pick because it's too much of a risk.

 

And I have no doubt in my mind that he'll come back to nearly 95% of what he was. My issue isn't with his ACL or his growth plate (which may have been a factor here, and until some legitimate news tells me he's been red flagged by a consensus of doctors I'll just assume the issues been resolved) but whether I believe the probability is high that he has a freak play like that year after year. 

 

The good thing about us drafting him he can come back when he fully ready. I do think he'll come back around 225-235 this year, which is similar to Noah...but nobody is worried about his ACL tearing...I'd be much more worried about guys that have degenerative knees and require multiple micro fracture surgeries. 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm

 

 

 

Joe Kotoch: Noel's stop in Cleveland was just an interview. It appears to have gone well but concerns about injury & frame exist still. Twitter @Probballdraft

 

 

 

 

Joe Kotoch: Len has emerged as top choice for Cleveland with ability to contribute on both ends of the court & should be 100% by training camp. Twitter @Probballdraft

 

 

[nuposse87]

Its a smokescreen, no way the Cavs don't take one of Porter/Noel. I actually like Len, and think he has high potential but I worry about how bad he wants to be great. 

[Destino]

Its a smokescreen, no way the Cavs don't take one of Porter/Noel. I actually like Len, and think he has high potential but I worry about how bad he wants to be great.

Maybe. But how many 7 footers are in the NBA that can hit a 15 foot shot? Count them.

Now how many "defensive centers" are there?

Len is a rare commodity.

[SuperBash]

I'd be fine with any of the 4 of Len/Noel/Porter/Bennett but I'd be the most disappointed/concerned with Noel.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Its a smokescreen, no way the Cavs don't take one of Porter/Noel. I actually like Len, and think he has high potential but I worry about how bad he wants to be great. 

That's interesting because from everything I've read/heard Len has a great work ethic.

 

He might not be successful but I don't think it'll be from lack of effort.

[JWB]

There is no "smoke screen" when you are picking 1st. They may really like Len, but I doubt he goes there. I still think common sense prevails and it goes Noel, McLemore, Porter. But this is the NBA where common sense was left behind long long ago.

[Destino]

One week away. Nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com have Shabazz going 15th. That's a hell of a fall for a guy discussed earlier in the year as a too three pick.

[Going Commando]

One week away. Nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com have Shabazz going 15th. That's a hell of a fall for a guy discussed earlier in the year as a too three pick.

 

He was the favorite to go first coming into the year.  If we go big with our pick, I would seriously consider trying to buy a pick in the teens if he makes it that far.  At that point he's all upside.  The talent is still there despite a rough year and a rougher offseason.

[Going Commando]

Forget Noel's injury because the real question is how would he make the Wizards better? I don't think he does much because this team is desperately in need of efficient offensive players. Rebounding and defense weren't a big problem last year. The biggest problem is scoring. Who in the draft best fits that need for the Wiz?

 

He'd make us better by giving us a future DPOY caliber player in the middle of our defense.

 

The were arguably the top six defensive players this season:

- Tim Duncan

- Roy Hibbert

- Marc Gasol

- Joakim Noah

- Paul George

- Tony Allen

 

Notice any patterns?  Four are centers who anchored the best defensive teams in the league.  Each made it our of the first round of the playoffs.  Three of them played in the conference finals.

 

Three most valuable types of players in the NBA in no order:

- PG that can shoot and score as well as he faciliatates.  A floor general that can masterfully execute your offense.

- Versatile forward capable of slashing, shooting threes, and guarding three or four positions at a high level.

- Elite rim protecting and rebounding 7 footer, especially one who can rotate onto perimeter players and defend in space.

[Destino]

Hibbert is a giant. 6-10 206 Noel shouldn't be compared to 7-2 280 Hibbert. They aren't the same player defensively and never will be. Roy can't be shoved around in the paint and can be counted on to defend opposing 5s on an island. He certainly doesn't rely on athleticism to defend the rim.

Duncan is potentially the best power forward ever and again not a guy that relies on leaping or quickness to defend. He's the ultimate BBIQ and skills big man.

Marc Gasol is another over 7 foot big bigman that I'm not sure I've ever seen jump on defense.

I think the only guy on your list comparable to Noel is Noah. Not terribly skilled, big, or heavy but he just naturally understands defense and he alters the game in ways stats can never capture. I don't think that all the comparables are on great defensive teams though, Larry Sanders comes to mind. Ultimately the problem is that Noel is unique. He's a super athlete but he has an extremely weak base. I don't know that anyone in the NBA fits that description other than Javale Mcgee and he's not nearly as smart and way bigger.

Noel may be great and may be extremely limited. What he is not, is a safe pick. Low floor (bust) and high ceiling (superstar) coming off an ACL injury that will cost him much of his development time in the first year of his rookie deal.  But he's a super athlete that can jump as explosively as any PF/C I've ever seen and he's got great hands and that's hard to pass up.  

Edited June 21, 2013 by Destino

[Going Commando]

Noel has a great bball IQ.  It's how he's able to be such an impactful, holistic defender.  He's not just the best shotblocker and rim protector of his generation.  He's also monstrously good at getting steals and defending on the ball out on the perimeter and in space.  He can check guards.  Plus he's a good rebounder.  He's an absolute force on that end of the court and should, along with Anthony Davis, be the great defenders of this generation.  Those two are capable of splitting the DPOYs for the decade once they enter their prime.  

 

I think they're going to be much better defenders than Hibbert, Gasol, and Noah are today in a few years.  They can do something that will be incredibly valuable that those guys can't.  Groundbreaking really: venture away from the basket and shrink the floor.  Spacing being the most valuable commodity for almost every NBA offense now, those two will be able to negate it.  The rock to a team like OKC's scissors, if you will.  There haven't been ELITE rim protecting bigs with hands like them, as comfortable playing defense in space before IMO.

[Destino]

Space is fine Steve but you saw what big centers did this post season. Strength loomed large. Gasol, Howard, Hibbert, West, Boozer, ZBo, Lopez, and others aren't going to vanish. If you can't stop them from bullying their way to the rim all the hedged screens and quickness is going to matter little. Noel has to show he can do that if he's to be a great defender in the playoffs.

[Going Commando]

Space is fine Steve but you saw what big centers did this post season. Strength loomed large. Gasol, Howard, Hibbert, West, Boozer, ZBo, Lopez, and others aren't going to vanish. If you can't stop them from bullying their way to the rim all the hedged screens and quickness is going to matter little. Noel has to show he can do that if he's to be a great defender in the playoffs.

 

Noel held his own against much stronger players.  That Ole Miss game was a marvel, and he did his work against some powerful bigs when he was in foul trouble.  Speed and length and leaping ability go a long way to covering up for a lack of strength.  But mainly, it's just about Noel's aggressiveness and ability to anticipate the game.  He's a very aggressive defender for such a skinny guy.  He's fearless.

[SuperBash]

Ryen Russillo just said on 980 that he's heard the Wizards are trying to trade their pick more than any other team near the top of the draft. He said he's heard they are trying to package the pick and a bad contract for a player that can help them but he doesn't know who that player is. Could it be just Ersan or other players in play? Or just smoke? Thursday can't get here soon enough

[Destino]

Ryen Russillo just said on 980 that he's heard the Wizards are trying to trade their pick more than any other team near the top of the draft. He said he's heard they are trying to package the pick and a bad contract for a player that can help them but he doesn't know who that player is. Could it be just Ersan or other players in play? Or just smoke? Thursday can't get here soon enough

 

A bad contract?  They really only have one bad contract and that's Nene.  If Ernie sends the 3rd pick away just to get rid of an expiring deal in Okafor or Ariza I'm going to need to find a new team until he is fired or dies of old age.  The third pick in the draft would need to bring back a lot of value for a trade to make sense.  

[Hersh]

Space is fine Steve but you saw what big centers did this post season. Strength loomed large. Gasol, Howard, Hibbert, West, Boozer, ZBo, Lopez, and others aren't going to vanish. If you can't stop them from bullying their way to the rim all the hedged screens and quickness is going to matter little. Noel has to show he can do that if he's to be a great defender in the playoffs.

 

Noel held his own against much stronger players.  That Ole Miss game was a marvel, and he did his work against some powerful bigs when he was in foul trouble.  Speed and length and leaping ability go a long way to covering up for a lack of strength.  But mainly, it's just about Noel's aggressiveness and ability to anticipate the game.  He's a very aggressive defender for such a skinny guy.  He's fearless.

 

A couple of things.

 

First, Noel being able to check a guard in college is a little different than checking guards in the NBA. Ask pretty much every big man ever.

 

Second, defense and rebounding aren't what the Wizards really need. Offense, offense and more efficient offense has to be need 1, 2 and 3.

 

I'm not saying I'd pass on Noel if he's there and Porter is gone, I'm just talking about needs for the Wiz given their current roster makeup for next season.

[SuperBash]

Ryen Russillo just said on 980 that he's heard the Wizards are trying to trade their pick more than any other team near the top of the draft. He said he's heard they are trying to package the pick and a bad contract for a player that can help them but he doesn't know who that player is. Could it be just Ersan or other players in play? Or just smoke? Thursday can't get here soon enough

 

A bad contract?  They really only have one bad contract and that's Nene.  If Ernie sends the 3rd pick away just to get rid of an expiring deal in Okafor or Ariza I'm going to need to find a new team until he is fired or dies of old age.  The third pick in the draft would need to bring back a lot of value for a trade to make sense.  

I was figuring it could mean Jan. I define that as a bad contract. 3.5 mil could get us a useful veteran, at least useful in comparison to Jan and the production he'll put up for 3.5 mil

[Destino]

I was figuring it could mean Jan. I define that as a bad contract. 3.5 mil could get us a useful veteran, at least useful in comparison to Jan and the production he'll put up for 3.5 mil

 

 

I don't think you mess around with the 3rd overall pick to get rid of a 3.5 million dollar contract that can be made to expire next season.  

[SuperBash]

I was figuring it could mean Jan. I define that as a bad contract. 3.5 mil could get us a useful veteran, at least useful in comparison to Jan and the production he'll put up for 3.5 mil

 

 

I don't think you mess around with the 3rd overall pick to get rid of a 3.5 million dollar contract that can be made to expire next season.  

Well, that wouldn't be the sole reason, just a side thing. I don't think it happens. I say they just sit back and take one of Len/Noel/Bennett/Porter

[Going Commando]

 

Space is fine Steve but you saw what big centers did this post season. Strength loomed large. Gasol, Howard, Hibbert, West, Boozer, ZBo, Lopez, and others aren't going to vanish. If you can't stop them from bullying their way to the rim all the hedged screens and quickness is going to matter little. Noel has to show he can do that if he's to be a great defender in the playoffs.

 

Noel held his own against much stronger players.  That Ole Miss game was a marvel, and he did his work against some powerful bigs when he was in foul trouble.  Speed and length and leaping ability go a long way to covering up for a lack of strength.  But mainly, it's just about Noel's aggressiveness and ability to anticipate the game.  He's a very aggressive defender for such a skinny guy.  He's fearless.

 

A couple of things.

 

First, Noel being able to check a guard in college is a little different than checking guards in the NBA. Ask pretty much every big man ever.

 

Second, defense and rebounding aren't what the Wizards really need. Offense, offense and more efficient offense has to be need 1, 2 and 3.

 

I'm not saying I'd pass on Noel if he's there and Porter is gone, I'm just talking about needs for the Wiz given their current roster makeup for next season.

 

Not many big men ever can play defense like Noel can.  You have to have watched him to see how special he was.

 

Every team in the league wants an elite defensive and rebounding center.  Few have one.  The ones that do are almost all good.

 

And the Wizards have an acceptable defense and acceptable rebounding because of Emeka Okafor.  And Emeka Okafor is absolutely not a reason not to draft any player in this class.  If he opts to stay, he's got one year left on his deal and he's going to be 31 before the season and has had injury problems for years.

[Going Commando]

I bet they are trying to trade for DeMarcus Cousins.

#3 plus Nene for DeMarcus Cousins & a contract to ballast the trade.  Do you do it?