The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[lovetoaster]

Josh Smith is a power forward. He's been playing almost exclusively at PF for years in ATL. Guys don't go from big positions to smaller ones the later they get in their career. They go the opposite direction. Smith is a (bad) face up power forward with big offensive limitations.

He can't shoot well enough to play the three for us, nor is he especially creative off the dribble. He's got an ORating of 96 this year, which is awful. So is his TS %. He's actually got negative offensive win shares this season. He's been worse than a replacement level player on offense this year. Pretty much the only positive for him has been his passing.

He's an outstanding defender, especially at the 4 where he gets some freedom to roam. He's a good rebounder (though probably not as good as Emeka). He's a great shot blocker. But guys in contract seasons are supposed to put up great years to justify big deals. Smith is having an awful year, one of the worst of his career. You can't give this guy big money. He's looking for 18+ million a year but he's probably only worth 13 or 14 million.

He's also a bit of a knucklehead.

I like Josh Smith, but I really can't disagree with any of this. I have a feeling that he is one of those guys that I like when he is on a team other than the one that I root for. I just don't think it would be a wise move for the Wizards. I have been wrong before though.

[Going Commando]

If we trade for Josh smith, he will play SF, not PF. An already weak rebounding team can't trade their best rebounder unless they get another elite rebounder back. I'd be shocked if Nene was involved in the deal and I doubt Okafor will be either. Smith doesn't have a ton of trade value being that everyone in the NBA knows the Hawks aren't going to bring him back next year.

If we trade for him, I'd expect the trade to include Seraphin, Crawford, and Ariza....we'd also likely either swap 1st round picks with ATL or trade them our 2014 first rounder.

roster could end up like this after the draft:

Okafor/draft pick

Nene/ Booker/ Vesely / Singleton

Smith / Webster / Martin

Beal / Temple

Wall / draft pick /

You have a ton of versatility here....Nene and Okafor can play both 4/5. Vesely, Smith, Singleton can play 3/4. Temple can play 1/2.

I'd like to add another shooter to this lineup and a good back up point guard.

There are two bottom line reasons why I don't think that works. Salary and spacing. First, the whole goal should be to put as many distance shooters on the floor with Wall as possible. Smith is a PF and is a bad play at SF. You'd need to find a starting SF to get the Smith acquisition to work well. Second, there are big salary problems that come with acquiring Smith. For one thing, how much is it going to cost? He's made it clear he wants max money. We certainly can't afford to give him that. And honestly, he's coming off such a bad year, I doubt any team would if he hit the open market. Someone on another forum pointed out the only team likely to trade for him and then give him a max extension is Brooklyn because their owner is a moneybags who spends with no care about the tax. If we trade for Smith, he's unlikely to extend with us unless we pay well enough over market value to make him ignore waiting until he hits the open market to guage his value. We won't get him on a bargain. We're not a good enough team to compel people to stay here for less than market value. He and his agent would almost certainly balk at a fair offer (13-14 million annually) and figure they could get more in FA. And maybe they could, although you can't really tell what the financial landscape of the league will be like this summer. Teams are going to be terrified of the new tax coming and it probably will decrease spending. If he hit the open market, any deal to sign him would put us over the salary cap. I think we'd have Bird rights, but I'm not sure what kind of contract we could sign him for and what exceptions would apply.

So you'd have basically two options: trade for him and don't extend him and then sweat it out as he hits the open market, very real chance you just deal Ariza, Seraphin, Crawford and whatever else for a two month rental of Josh Smith in a year that was already completely lost (very bad).

OR, suck it up and overpay him to keep him from trying FA (worse IMO).

Well let's say it doesn't come to that. Let's say we are able to actually extend him for a fair deal of 13-14 million annually. We'd still have salary and lineup issues anyway. That deal would put us at 61 million with only 8 players under contract: Wall, Beal, Nene, Oak, Booker, Ves, Singleton, Smith. Four more vet min deals keeps us under the luxury tax and we could use the MLE and the draft pick exceptions. MLE would be 5 million annually for four years and the draft pick hold depends on how high we pick, but probably about 3-4 million. MLE + draft pick + two vet min deals puts us over the luxury tax line. Our number one goal needs to be no luxury tax, so that means I don't think you can use the MLE even after getting a fair price extension for Smith.

Your needs after trading Ariza, Crawford, and Seraphin for Smith would be capable PG depth, SG depth, a starting SF that can shoot, and a reserve big man that can play the 5. That's at least two or three key reserves and a starter you'd be signing for cheap. That's untenable IMO. Smith can't start at SF, the shooting would be terrible and it would get worse than this year when our goal needs to be improving the quality of shooters playing around Wall. Ves can't play SF because he can't shoot or dribble. Singleton got bumped up to PF, which isn't an endorsement of him playing big minutes at SF. And Booker can't play SF. You'd have a ton of 4s on the roster but not a single true 3. Maybe you could draft one like Otto Porter or Shabazz Muhammad, but I don't think starting a rookie is a preferable situation at SF to what we've got now in Martell and Ariza.

And we also should not veer from a BPA approach to the draft picking as high as we will. If the BPA is a big man, we would need to take him. If the BPA isn't a SF, we'd probably be in a really bad fix.

So we'd have the choice of starting a PF at SF and putting an awful shooting lineup on the floor around Wall. Starting a rookie, who may have been a big reach at the pick too. Starting a minimum contract player. Using the MLE and paying luxury tax. Or having to trade for a starting SF who wouldn't put us over the tax line. That would cost us assets and we'd have to find a trade partner. I'm thinking you would have to deal Vesely for a marginally paid SF. He's the only remotely attractive asset we'd have left besides draft picks. I doubt Singleton or Booker could get anything back. I don't like the idea of trading Ves for a cheap journeyman SF.

And you still need two guards since we'd only have two on the roster. And you don't want to go but so cheap on the backup PG because he is going to play a big role. Plus I think you need a second true SF on the roster and you would need someone who can play the 5 for the bench after dealing Seraphin. I think you could go cheap on the 5 and sign a minimum player or use one of the second round draft picks on the spot. He's not going to get into the game unless you spend the high draft pick on someone like Zeller. You could go vet min for the backup SG, maybe Temple. Or use one of the second rounders. Same for the backup SF. But the PG needs to be able to play. And we'd have too much flawed PF depth and we'd need to do something about it. You'd need to get rid of at least one of Ves, Booker, and Singleton, probably two.

Say you get Shabazz or Porter in the draft and start them at SF next season. Then say you deal Vesely as part of a package for a backup PG so you can get someone at least somewhat decent here without having to pay the MLE. Then you fill out the rest of the depth with 2nd rounders and min contracts. Well that line up works for next year, but only next year.

Okafor is gone after next season and Wall is an RFA that we would have to extend. There is very little chance we can keep Okafor after that season, and we could be paying as much as 14.5 million annually for Wall from that point on, which basically replaces Okafor's deal. Now you've got Wall's 7 million available to use, but you really need to be earmarking those savings for Beal's extension so that you aren't forced to deal Beal in his fourth year to save money like OKC had to do with James Harden. Beal is our second most important player in the construction and must be kept at all costs. So if you spend that 7 million, it MUST be off the books by the time Beal's extension comes up.

But now you've got a problem growing in the front court. The loss of Okafor and the aging and unreliability of Nene means you've got a serious problem coming at the 5. Nene will not be the 5 by the time Wall and Beal are in their primes and are ready to contend. You're going to reach a point where we'll be right in the heart of the Wall/Beal/Smith era and we'll have no center and no money to go out and get one. You'd be praying we find a decent starting center plus depth outside of the lottery in the draft or as bargain FAs. That's hoping for a miracle IMO, not solid team building.

No I think, unless none of the good 5s are left, we HAVE to go with a big man with this year's draft pick. You have to take Zeller or Len if they are available because they are BPA type talents that fill the biggest long term need. But then you've got a serious and immediate hole at SF because the draft pick is also probably our best bet for finding a quality SF.

And also remember that this entire scenario was predicated on the seriously unlikely event that he extends with us for a fair price contract of ~14 million annually. If he costs 17-18 million annually, that severely limits our options for filling out the rest of the roster and remaining under the luxury tax.

So the only way I think you can build a contender with this construction and avoiding the luxury tax after getting Josh Smith for the trade you propose involves this:

1.) Get him to extend for a relative bargain.

2.) Keep this year's draft pick and get a future starting 5 like Zeller, Noel, or Len. Need to get lucky and have them pan out.

3.) Get lucky and find a starting SF for a good deal--probably from a trade with future picks and/or Vesely as the basis of it.

4.) Get lucky with the backup PG situation because you're almost certainly going to have to go cheap here.

5.) Use all of our draft picks well to fill out the depth positions on bargain deals. We're paying our starters a ton.

It could work if we get lucky. We'd be very inflexible from here on out and it would be extremely difficult to even do simple things like signing PG depth. This FO is not good enough to make it work IMO.

I think we'd have to go cheap and keep Price, Temple, and Cartier Martin as our bench, get Noel, Len, or Zeller with the draft pick, and deal Vesely and future picks for a solid long term starting SF.

That way you're core for 2013/2014 could look like this:

PG: Wall

SG: Beal

SF: X

PF: Smith

C: Nene/Okafor/draft pick.

and for 2016/2017 look like this:

PG: Wall

SG: Beal

SF: X

PF: Smith

C: Zeller/Noel/Len

Personally, I would not go after Josh Smith. He's not the player I would want to have to build around.

Edited February 18, 2013 by stevemcqueen1

[SuperBash]

Are there going to be any cheap, vet stretch 4s that we can get via trade/FA for next year's roster? I think one that knows his role could be really valuable for us if we expect to make the playoffs.

---------- Post added February-18th-2013 at 01:30 PM ----------

Also, Jan put this up and with the caption, "Working out to be an All-Star!"

[Gator Bait]

Josh Smith is a power forward. He's been playing almost exclusively at PF for years in ATL. Guys don't go from big positions to smaller ones the later they get in their career. They go the opposite direction. Smith is a (bad) face up power forward with big offensive limitations.

this is incorrect. He hasn't played almost exclusively at PF. He typically starts at PF, but they move him to 3 quite often. Often enough that ESPN has him listed as a SF and not a PF. How does a player with so many offensive limitation (as you say) average over 17 ppg?

He can't shoot well enough to play the three for us, nor is he especially creative off the dribble. He's got an ORating of 96 this year, which is awful. So is his TS %. He's actually got negative offensive win shares this season. He's been worse than a replacement level player on offense this year. Pretty much the only positive for him has been his passing.

you and your stats...you cling to them.

He's looking for 18+ million a year but he's probably only worth 13 or 14 million.

Here is the thing about players and contracts....they actually have to find teams willing to pay them the money they are seeking. JaVale McGee's agent tried to get him the max without success. Just because a player wants the max; doesn't mean they will receive it. The max Josh could receive is 17.4 million (max contract first year) so he is unable to make the 18+ you claim he is looking for.

He's also a bit of a knucklehead

you think Josh is a knucklehead and use this as one of the reasons you wouldn't want the Wizards to sign him, yet you are a huge fan of Cousins and want the Wizards to trade for him? That makes no sense at all....Cousins is one of the biggest knuckleheads in the entire NBA.

---------- Post added February-18th-2013 at 01:46 PM ----------

It is a misconception that the Wizards needs "shooters." It would help to have a few guys who excel at shooting the ball, but what we need are well rounded players who are well rounded and are above average in all aspects of the game and can score points efficiently.

[Going Commando]

this is incorrect. He hasn't played almost exclusively at PF. He typically starts at PF, but they move him to 3 quite often. Often enough that ESPN has him listed as a SF and not a PF. How does a player with so many offensive limitation (as you say) average over 17 ppg?

He's a PF. He's been a PF for the past six years. He averages 17 PPG with horrible efficiency. High usage rate plus crap efficiency is how he gets to 17 PPG. He's 18th in the league in usage rate.

He can't shoot and he doesn't have a back to basket game. He's shooting just .311 on 2 point jumpers and just .354 on 3 pointers. That's awful. And even worse, he's shooting only .389 on hook shots. He's attempted the second most hook shots in the entire league with 126 of them so far. By contrast Kevin Seraphin is third in the league in hook shot attempts and he's .716 on them.

He's a ****ing awful offensive player. One of the worst in the league this season. He legitimately hurts his team on that side of the floor and they'd be better off starting a replacement level player there. He's not a good enough shooter to play SF nor is he a slasher who can get to the rim and the FT line. He's a bad face up power forward where all of his value comes from his defense.

you and your stats...you cling to them.

You can act as disdainful of them as you please, but really you're just ignoring them when they don't suit you. Regardless, pretty much any offensive stat out there points to how bad he's been on offense this year. His assists have been solid for a PF but they're balanced out by his high turnover rate for the position. The only thing he's been doing well is finishing mostly assisteed dunks and layups around the basket and in transition.

Here is the thing about players and contracts....they actually have to find teams willing to pay them the money they are seeking. JaVale McGee's agent tried to get him the max without success. Just because a player wants the max; doesn't mean they will receive it. The max Josh could receive is 17.4 million (max contract first year) so he is unable to make the 18+ you claim he is looking for.

Josh Smith himself is the one who said he's looking for a max contract. ~17.4 million is for the first year, then it has raises built into it each year so the value of the contract goes over 18 million annually.

Will he get the deal? Probably not. God knows he doesn't deserve it. But you never know. And how do you get him to sign a deal before FA starts and he goes on the open market just to test the water for less than what he expects to get? He'd say **** off and try his luck in FA because even if most teams with cap space wants him on a max deal, there might be one or two out there that would.

So you'd trade for him and stick to your guns to get try and get him at a fair cost and you're faced with the very real chance he walks to a new team in the summer for nothing.

you think Josh is a knucklehead and use this as one of the reasons you wouldn't want the Wizards to sign him, yet you are a huge fan of Cousins and want the Wizards to trade for him? That makes no sense at all....Cousins is one of the biggest knuckleheads in the entire NBA.

Cousins is a knucklehead. The difference between him and Josh Smith is that he is actually pretty good and he has the potential to be one of the top 3 big men in the game. He's been better than Josh Smith this season and he's still got a mountain of untapped potential. Josh Smith is in his 9th season and getting worse.

It is a misconception that the Wizards needs "shooters." It would help to have a few guys who excel at shooting the ball, but what we need are well rounded players who are well rounded and are above average in all aspects of the game and can score points efficiently.

That rules out Josh Smith too. He's not well rounded and he can't score efficiently.

The offense needs shooters to function. We need a SF that can shoot and even better would be getting a PF that could shoot too.

---------- Post added February-18th-2013 at 05:09 PM ----------

Counterintuitive, but it's actually good that Wall has developed somewhat slowly.

There is an obscure new rule in the CBA called the Derrick Rose rule where a player with less than 6 years experience is not eligible to make more than 9 million dollars annually OR 25% of the salary cap (a little over 14 million) annually. The caveats are that the player is eligible to make the normal > 10 years experience vet max of 30% of the salary cap (a little over 17 million) only if he gets named to two All Star games as a starter or two All NBA teams or wins a league MVP.

John isn't going to get selected to an All NBA team this year meaning he won't be able to hit the prerequisites before he negotiates unless he wins an MVP next year. That ain't happening unless we become a first or second seed, in which case, who cares?

So John's extension can be no more than ~14 million annually, which he probably won't get.

It'll also benefit us if Beal stays under the radar and doesn't get named the starter to two All Star teams before his rookie deal is up.

And of course, there is the obvious benefit of the team being bad enough for one stretch to get a string of high draft picks to lay the foundation.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

I am completely done with the Wizards for various reasons (I've actually reinvigorated my love for the NBA as a result) but I still lurk here because you guys are so knowledgeable.

Gator...please read this article on Josh Smith.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/49283/courtvision-the-worst-shooters-so-far

Here's a sample

"So far this season, Smith has made more than 62 percent of his shots close to the basket, which is a value significantly higher than the NBA average. It’s also higher than Tim Duncan’s 60 percent and Dwight Howard’s 61 percent. This is especially impressive considering this is the most ferociously defended real estate on the floor, where monstrous athletes like Larry Sanders (also known as LARRY SANDERS!) and Howard try really hard to prevent shots from going in. Still, in terms of both volume and efficiency, Smith unquestionably performs at an elite level down there. He’s a great interior scorer.

Unfortunately for Hawks fans — and for fans of general alignment of talents and actions — Smith has a destructive jump shooting habit. While it would be unfair to label him the worst jump shooter in the NBA, it is probably fair to claim that he is the worst active jump shooter in the league. Most guys — Tyson Chandler, for example — who can’t shoot 17-footers don’t make a habit of trying anyway. Smith does.

As a general rule, Smith shoots almost exactly half of his shots within 7.5 feet of the rim, and the other half outside of that threshold. As of January 22, Smith was 80-for-297 (27 percent) outside of 7.5 feet, and 178-for-287 (62 percent) inside that distance. He spends too much time doing stuff he’s not good at. The notion that Smith has more midrange attempts than Al Horford and Lou Williams is simply ridiculous."

Edited February 19, 2013 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[nuposse87]

your reading comprehension sucks. The only comparison I made between LeBron and Josh was their size...and that was spot on.

In this case size doesn't matter, especially when you're trying to equate Josh Smith into being a "good SF". He's very unskilled from the perimeter. Career wise, he isn't a guy you want anywhere but the paint, nor is he fast enough to blow by truly elite SFs (not anymore at least). You can say my reading comprehension sucks or w/e, but the fact is your argument wreaks of incompetence. Stop making bull**** comparisons.

I find it hard to believe you've watched 90% of all wizards games since Jordan...but that's another argument. I've I stated before...I go to a lot of games (both college and pros) you see a lot more when you are at the game. Not to mention my girlfriend could watch a million basketball games, but that doesn't mean she would know what the **** she is talking about when it comes to the sport. You can watch all you want, but that doesn't make you a subject matter expert.

I don't give a **** whether or not you believe don't try to insinuate that I'm liar and then brush it off as if its point of actual discussion. I'd venture to say almost everyone on this board who lives in the DMV area has attempted or gone to a game, as I have, and you don't see anything different than you do on TV. I hardly doubt anyone goes to a game and watches one player off the ball the whole ****ing game. Don't bring your GF into this, I don't want to bash anyone who is undeserving.

Quit talking out of your ass and actually back up some of your assertions regarding players other than simply saying "player X is good because of some subjectively arbitrary quality Y that I observed." Gimme a ****ing break.

Smith isn't a tweener....he is a legit 3 that can also play 4. he is a much better fit at 3 because of his quickness, athleticism, and size. I never called Rudy Gay efficient...I said he was a good player, and he is. 66% ft. shooter is bad, but as I said before (you must have missed it) is that ft shooting can be improved with coaching.

Ummm he is absolutely a tweener forward. 6'9 with a standing reach similar to B. Griffin's if I'm not mistaken. He's better as stretch 4 who can't shoot (which is odd in itself). His athleticism isn't good enough to cover up the lack of shooting skill he has from outside (although career year this year for him, but also contract year, not too surprised). Not to mention he's going to be 28 in '13-14 season (which I imagine would be the first season we'd see dividends from acquiring this terrible 6'9 walking mediocre treadmill of a player). He's 27, his FT shooting isn't going to get much better. Remember, he's shooting like close to 50% this season. If he gets up to 60% again it isn't like we've rid ourselves of his liability. I'm sure he has coaches working with him on this, so it isn't something you can bank on.

I don't love to have a guy who can't shoot free throws..but if they are dominate at other things like Defense, rebounding, passing, and also a pretty good scorer....I can get over that.

He doesn't dominate the boards, he's got a 1.3:1 Assist to TO ratio, while at least not below 1, isn't exactly dominate. 17.5 points a game on bad TS on high usage isn't a good scorer. He's a scorer, but more like corey magette, who, I'm sure...nobody wants.

again...I never called Gay an efficient player, but he is elite at his position.

you aren't getting a guy like josh Smith for 8 million a year....players like him make at least 12 million a year.

elite? Well, LBJ, Durant, Melo are all clearly in the top 3. Paul George would be next, as he's played tremendous ball in the last 35 games, not to mention his all NBA caliber defense. I'd say Pierce and Batum come next, Pierce is clearly on a downward trejectory though, but we're just talkin this season. Batum plays excellent D and does a lot considering POR has no bench, not to mention he's been fighting through injuries this season. The only thing "elite" about Rudy Gay is that he's hyper athletic. The problem is his shot selection and efficiency, which is the same regarding Smith.

not if you already have a few pieces together like we do. The Wizards with Josh Smith are contenders in the NBA next year.

We have pieces, but putting smith on this team is like trying to fit a Square into space where a circle goes. He'd better suited on CLE with Kyrie being a threat from 3 point land. Smith isn't going to get much better as a player, so thinking his game is going to expand seems like foolish thinking. Most guys are what they are by his age.

Oh and regarding Cousins, he is a headcase, like Smith, but at least Cousins has monstrous upside. You can't say that about Smith, he's in his physical prime, but that doesn't mean his game is about to morph.

[Going Commando]

Here's a sample

"So far this season, Smith has made more than 62 percent of his shots close to the basket, which is a value significantly higher than the NBA average. It’s also higher than Tim Duncan’s 60 percent and Dwight Howard’s 61 percent. This is especially impressive considering this is the most ferociously defended real estate on the floor, where monstrous athletes like Larry Sanders (also known as LARRY SANDERS!) and Howard try really hard to prevent shots from going in. Still, in terms of both volume and efficiency, Smith unquestionably performs at an elite level down there. He’s a great interior scorer.

I'm not sure that's actually correct. How are they defining shots at the rim? Because I'm getting different numbers. Tim Duncan at like 82% on shots withing a foot of the rim and Smith is like 79%. There are a ton of people in that percentile too, I wouldn't call converting at that percentage elite. I'm guessing they mean further out from the basket.

[Destino]

I'm not sure that's actually correct. How are they defining shots at the rim? Because I'm getting different numbers. Tim Duncan at like 82% on shots withing a foot of the rim and Smith is like 79%. There are a ton of people in that percentile too, I wouldn't call converting at that percentage elite. I'm guessing they mean further out from the basket.

Hoopdata has Duncan at 72% and Smith at 77.9% at the rim.

[Going Commando]

Hoopdata has Duncan at 72% and Smith at 77.9% at the rim.

Do they define shot at the rim? Does it have to be a certain type of shot and what is the distance that counts? Not that it matters because clearly both Josh Smith and Tim Duncan are excellent and it's splitting hairs to differentiate them here. I'm just curious.

Saw this on RealGM:

Chris Broussard ‏@Chris_Broussard

In talks with ATL for Josh Smith, Wizards have said all but 3 players available: J Wall, B Beal & Nene

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 07:25 AM ----------

I wish they'd stipulate that the draft pick is unavailable too. IMO that thing needs to be off the table because of the risk Smith would leave in FA. You need that thing to rebuild in case he leaves and/or to find a 3 or a 5 long term.

I'm not necessarily against Smith if he extends at a reasonable price.

My position is that I think he will be very difficult to build around and I'm skeptical the FO is capable of doing it.

I think Smith has value because he's an elite defender. And it's become tiresome for fans to hear at this point, but yes, he does give someone to run the floor with John and finish in transition. That is important.

He's a true PF and IF you can get him to stop hoisting bad shots and shoot within the flow of the offense, he can space the floor. He does have a 3 ball even though he's been terrible shooting it for a perimeter player. Good enough to stretch the floor from the 4 though.

I wish he could make FTs though. His dribble penetration is basically no threat because he can't shoot FTs.

But mainly I think he's needed for the defense. Put him at the 4 and Nene at the 5 and you've got a good front court. Nene is bigger and more powerful and just as efficient as Horford.

The problem remains two-fold though: We need a 3. And we need a solution for the Center position after Nene. Nene will not be around for the time when Wall & Beal hit their primes in four or five years.

If you trade for Smith with the deal built around Okafor, or Ariza and a bunch of young guys, extend him at a good deal, and use the draft pick on Shabazz or Porter to be the starting 3, that's a top three seed in the East in a year or two.

1, Wall

2, Beal

3, Porter/Shabazz

4, Smith

5, Nene

Or if you draft a big like Zeller or Len, then I think you have to try and keep Martell and that's a playoff team for next year, and a very strong foundation for the long term because you can build around Zeller or Len/Beal/Wall for the 2017 seasons when Smith and Nene would probably be gone and Zeller/Len would be coming up for his extension.

Bottom line, you've got to keep this year's draft pick. Do not budge on this. Let Smith go to a different team before you give up this pick. This is the last really high pick we're going to get.

[Skin'emAlive]

I am not sure if Smith meshes that well with this team. But there are some things to consider regarding how he meshes with Wall:

1. Can he space the floor?

A: Well, if we are talking about him spacing the floor as a 4, he is probably more reliable from long range than Singleton ( our only stretch 4).

2. If he is not a spacer, can he run, cut, and finish at the rim?

A: He is better than Booker, Seraphin, Vesely, Singleton, and Okafor at this aspect. Nene is a mid range, post up option. While he has the ability to run the floor, i think injuries have robbed him of this trait. So now he has adapted the Caron Butler triple pump/head fake each time down low. So if this continues to be the norm, which i think age will certify, Smith would be better than anyone we currently have at this. On top of that, as noted in previous posts, he is a terrific finisher at the rim.

3. Can he hit free throws?

A: Not very well. But that being said, only Seraphin and Nene are better (Singleton has too low of a sample size, and doesnt get to the rim as much). If Seraphin is included in a trade ( which i would have to believe would be more probable than Crawford), then only Nene is better from the line down low

4. Can he play defense?

A: Yes. Possibly better than anyone on the team

5. Can he rebound?

A: Yes. Only Okafor would be better than him.

6. Does he pass if the shot is not there?

A: This may be his biggest weakness. But that being said... Seraphin doesnt pass. Ves cant shoot. Booker catapults his shots. Singleton stands at the 3. So i see this as a push.

7. Can he shoot?

A: Seraphin has a better shot now in my opinion. Nene's shot has fallen off. Okafor's is getting better as the season rolls on. Singleton small sample size. Booker and Ves can not. So even if he cant shoot that efficiently, he would be filling a roll where he is averaging more over his career than the status quo.

So with all those points being considered, I think he is obviously an upgrade and would fit the system we have in place currently equally, with a possibility to be much better. But we have to include either Okafor or Ariza in the trade. And if he doesnt work out and we decide not to pay him... hurray cap space.

So i would trade Ariza, Seraphin, and Ves/Booker/2nd for Josh Smith. Use the 1st on a SF (hopefully Shabazz) or a C. Okafor is shipped mid season next year for a 6th man. Nene moves to C and Smith to PF. And viola, we have a contending team. I would prefer to keep Crawford here as the 6th man PG, but i dont see it happening. Webster can hold down the SF spot should we not be able to grab Shabazz. Shipping Seraphin saves us from the high amount he is going to ask for at the end of his contract. But i could be ok shipping Ok instead of Seraphin as well i guess.

Edited February 19, 2013 by Skin'emAlive

[RonArtest15]

I'm not sure how I feel about Josh Smith. I'm lukewarm on the trade ESPECIALLY with a big pay day for him on the horizon. He'd be amazing in transition, but he's not with out flaws. If...and I mean IF he can stop taking ill-advised jumpers and keep the majority of his shots in the paint, we'd be getting a steal. There's a reason why Hawks fans groan when he takes jumpers from 16-23.

I heard on the radio that the only untouchables on the roster are Wall/Beal/Nene. If it was me, I'd be looking to move Nene if the right deal came along. Wall and Beal, I get. Nene, not so much.

*edit*

I'm more leaning towards "no" on the Smith trade. His age being a HUGE factor in this. He's not going to be much better than what he is now and he's EXTREMELY flawed. What I fear is that if the Wizards do make this deal, Smith will ball out in hopes of a new deal. We'll give him max contract and we'll be stuck with him until he's 33.

Edited February 19, 2013 by RonArtest15

[Going Commando]

My main worry about Smith is the financials of it all. Because of them, I think you almost have to build the deal around Okafor. You're going to need all of those young cheap rookie deals to fill out the roster after you sign Smith IMO.

What is ATL trying to accomplish? They're trying to get something for Smith so he doesn't leave for nothing. But he's coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and his value is probably at one of it's slowest points. I think he'd constitute buying low as far as trade assets are concerned. But cap space is also valuable for ATL so they don't have to deal him if they don't get something that helps them back. They probably want to rebuild around Horford and most of the roster is open. I'd imagine they don't want any long term big contracts, and they do want something good and young or a draft pick(s) out of it.

Josh is in his 9th year. He's not going to get better from here on out. BUT, his level of play should pick up. For one thing, playing with a PG like Wall would be a big plus for a player like Josh Smith. He's never had a good PG in ATL and a guy like him needs a good PG or else he's going to shot jack. Also you have to figure he'll regress back to his mean, especially once he's happy. A change of scenery could help.

Smith at PF is a good fit for us. Smith at SF is not. He bumps Nene to C and that's a nice front court. Nene is a positional defender and boxes out. Smith eats up rebounds and can come over from the weak side to block shots.

The big plus of signing Smith is that he's a DPOY caliber defender that led the league in defensive win shares last season. With defensive bigs as good as him and Nene, our defense could truly be elite. Especially as Wall and Beal grow into the kind of perimeter defenders they are capable of being. The team would be athletic enough to run a transition offense and powerful enough to slow down and defend in the half court.

His scoring would drop but his efficiency would climb and his rebounding would probably climb.

Trade for him, top ten protect the pick for this year and top 5 protect it for next year. It's a bit of a gamble since we're almost certainly picking top ten this year and you never know if we'll be picking top five next year--particularly if Josh Smith left in FA.

Use the draft pick on the best potential center or small forward available. If you get Shabazz or Otto Porter or Anthony Bennett, start them at SF as a rookie most likely. If you get Nerlens or Zeller or Len, you can afford to bring them along very slowly and let their bodies develop for the NBA. At that point, both Porter and Muhammad would be such great fits. Porter especially, because he can rebound and shoot. I think that group could probably be the best starting 5 in the league in a couple years.

The whole outlook of the Wizards gets changed in just two more big moves.

2013/2014 roster:

PG: Wall, Price

SG: Beal, Temple

SF: Muhammad/Porter, Ariza

PF: Smith, Ves/Singleton/Booker

C: Nene, X

That's a powerful team. Smith kind of puts us on the map and is a signal we're ready to make the playoffs and maybe get out of the first round.

But you've got to make the financials work. You've got to clear out the PF depth. You've got to get Smith to extend for a smart contract. You've got to make that draft pick count too, since it's the last high pick we'd probably be getting for a while.

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 10:19 AM ----------

Wall

Beal

Ariza

Smith

Nene

could legitimately be the best defensive team in the league next season.

[RonArtest15]

My main worry about Smith is the financials of it all. Because of them, I think you almost have to build the deal around Okafor. You're going to need all of those young cheap rookie deals to fill out the roster after you sign Smith IMO.

What is ATL trying to accomplish? They're trying to get something for Smith so he doesn't leave for nothing. But he's coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and his value is probably at one of it's slowest points. I think he'd constitute buying low as far as trade assets are concerned. But cap space is also valuable for ATL so they don't have to deal him if they don't get something that helps them back. They probably want to rebuild around Horford and most of the roster is open. I'd imagine they don't want any long term big contracts, and they do want something good and young or a draft pick(s) out of it.

Josh is in his 9th year. He's not going to get better from here on out. BUT, his level of play should pick up. For one thing, playing with a PG like Wall would be a big plus for a player like Josh Smith. He's never had a good PG in ATL and a guy like him needs a good PG or else he's going to shot jack. Also you have to figure he'll regress back to his mean, especially once he's happy. A change of scenery could help.

Smith at PF is a good fit for us. Smith at SF is not. He bumps Nene to C and that's a nice front court. Nene is a positional defender and boxes out. Smith eats up rebounds and can come over from the weak side to block shots.

The big plus of signing Smith is that he's a DPOY caliber defender that led the league in defensive win shares last season. With defensive bigs as good as him and Nene, our defense could truly be elite. Especially as Wall and Beal grow into the kind of perimeter defenders they are capable of being. The team would be athletic enough to run a transition offense and powerful enough to slow down and defend in the half court.

His scoring would drop but his efficiency would climb and his rebounding would probably climb.

Trade for him, top ten protect the pick for this year and top 5 protect it for next year. It's a bit of a gamble since we're almost certainly picking top ten this year and you never know if we'll be picking top five next year--particularly if Josh Smith left in FA.

Use the draft pick on the best potential center or small forward available. If you get Shabazz or Otto Porter or Anthony Bennett, start them at SF as a rookie most likely. If you get Nerlens or Zeller or Len, you can afford to bring them along very slowly and let their bodies develop for the NBA. At that point, both Porter and Muhammad would be such great fits. Porter especially, because he can rebound and shoot. I think that group could probably be the best starting 5 in the league in a couple years.

The whole outlook of the Wizards gets changed in just two more big moves.

2013/2014 roster:

PG: Wall, Price

SG: Beal, Temple

SF: Muhammad/Porter, Ariza

PF: Smith, Ves/Singleton/Booker

C: Nene, X

That's a powerful team. Smith kind of puts us on the map and is a signal we're ready to make the playoffs and maybe get out of the first round.

But you've got to make the financials work. You've got to clear out the PF depth. You've got to get Smith to extend for a smart contract. You've got to make that draft pick count too, since it's the last high pick we'd probably be getting for a while.

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 10:19 AM ----------

Wall

Beal

Ariza

Smith

Nene

could legitimately be the best defensive team in the league next season.

If we go out and add Smith, that Wall, Beal, Ariza, Smith, Nene lineup would have no one outside of Beal that could stretch the floor. We need a stretch 4 more than anything else and Smith doesn't fit that mold. I would LOVE for this team to take a flyer on Matt Bonner. See what it would take to get him. Having him off the bench > having Josh Smith as a starter. I think there is more value there than with Smith.

[Gator Bait]

In this case size doesn't matter, especially when you're trying to equate Josh Smith into being a "good SF". He's very unskilled from the perimeter. Career wise, he isn't a guy you want anywhere but the paint, nor is he fast enough to blow by truly elite SFs (not anymore at least). You can say my reading comprehension sucks or w/e, but the fact is your argument wreaks of incompetence.

Size always matters in basketball. That's why guys like JaVale McGee and Brenden Haywood get 10-12 million per year. Josh Smith is one of the best athletes in the NBA; he is very fast and agile/athletic for a guy his size. He can defend the majority of current NBA players....that's a huge asset to have on a team.

I don't give a **** whether or not you believe don't try to insinuate that I'm liar and then brush it off as if its point of actual discussion. I'd venture to say almost everyone on this board who lives in the DMV area has attempted or gone to a game, as I have, and you don't see anything different than you do on TV. I hardly doubt anyone goes to a game and watches one player off the ball the whole ****ing game. Don't bring your GF into this, I don't want to bash anyone who is undeserving.

You obviously aren't much of a basketball guy, haven't been to a game, or maybe you are just plain dumb (do you flip burgers for a living...just curious) because anyone with any kind of basketball knowledge who has been to a game knows it is much different than watching on TV. The cameras don't capture the whole court and all the players at once. When you are at the game you can see plays develop...just like hockey and football. You can watch someone's off the ball movement on offense and defense. It makes a big difference.

Ummm he is absolutely a tweener forward. 6'9 with a standing reach similar to B. Griffin's if I'm not mistaken. He's better as stretch 4 who can't shoot (which is odd in itself). His athleticism isn't good enough to cover up the lack of shooting skill he has from outside (although career year this year for him, but also contract year, not too surprised). Not to mention he's going to be 28 in '13-14 season (which I imagine would be the first season we'd see dividends from acquiring this terrible 6'9 walking mediocre treadmill of a player). He's 27, his FT shooting isn't going to get much better. Remember, he's shooting like close to 50% this season. If he gets up to 60% again it isn't like we've rid ourselves of his liability. I'm sure he has coaches working with him on this, so it isn't something you can bank on.

a tweener is a player who doesn't fit in as a PF or a SF....doesn't have a true position. Too weak/small to be a PF, or not quick/athletic enough to be a SF. Josh can play both positions at a high level. You don't have to be an outside shooter to be a good SF in the NBA. It definitely helps, but it is not a must. MKG can't shoot and he went 2nd in the draft this year. He is an elite defender and has a high motor....he creates matchup problems and can get to the rim.

it's ignorant for you to think he is bad in the FT category now and that he will not improve. Bwood raised his FT% almost 20% one year because of the shooting coach we employed that year....but you already know that since you watch 90% of games.

He doesn't dominate the boards, he's got a 1.3:1 Assist to TO ratio, while at least not below 1, isn't exactly dominate. 17.5 points a game on bad TS on high usage isn't a good scorer. He's a scorer, but more like corey magette, who, I'm sure...nobody wants.

Anyone who can score 17-20 ppg, pull down 8 rebounds, and get 4 assists per game is an elite player. I'll take 8 boards from my SF all day....although he might drop one or two boards if he was primarily a SF for us. You call his TS% bad....but he is barely under the league average. He is just about average when it comes to TS%...and he will be above average once that FT% comes up.

elite? Well, LBJ, Durant, Melo are all clearly in the top 3. Paul George would be next, as he's played tremendous ball in the last 35 games, not to mention his all NBA caliber defense. I'd say Pierce and Batum come next, Pierce is clearly on a downward trejectory though, but we're just talkin this season. Batum plays excellent D and does a lot considering POR has no bench, not to mention he's been fighting through injuries this season. The only thing "elite" about Rudy Gay is that he's hyper athletic. The problem is his shot selection and efficiency, which is the same regarding Smith.

None of the guys mentioned in your top three are primarily SFs.....LeBron has been used primarily as a PF this year and last year during the playoffs...they typically play with a smaller lineup so they can utilize all their best players (which are all wings). Carmelo Anthony, like LeBron, plays PF for his team as well....same type situation, they aren't deep in the front court and usually play with a small lineup. Durant is better (obviously). Pierce is just about done, he used to be better, but at this point I wouldn't say so. I agree with you on Batum...I love his game; he is the epitome of a do it all SF, but I find it interesting you know Gay and Smith for being "inefficient" players, yet Batum shoots 42% from the field and you don't seem to have much of a problem with that.

[SuperBash]

Steve, they were measuring Smith's shots from 7.5 feet within the basket and more than 7.5 feet from the basket. That's where they are getting the percentages from.

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 10:58 AM ----------

And also, I saw John Wall gave out a jersey on his facebook page. The winner? His name was Steve McQueen

[Gator Bait]

Bottom line, you've got to keep this year's draft pick. Do not budge on this. Let Smith go to a different team before you give up this pick. This is the last really high pick we're going to get.

Agree....and I will admit that even though I stand by my thoughts on Josh being able to play SF....I think your plan is better to move him to the 4 and draft a three. I doubt we'd be able to get the trade done without throwing in a draft pick, but I'd rather trade picks with them this year or just trade our 2014 first rounder.

The Hawks offered Josh to the 6ers for Evan Turner and Spenser Hawes, so our offer would have to top that....I don't think we can w/o draft picks.

[SuperBash]

If they can somehow get Smith without giving up Wall/Beal/Nene/1st pick this year, while extending him and not crippling our team's ability in the future to resign Wall and Beal...then I say go for it. Easier said than done.

[Gator Bait]

My main worry about Smith is the financials of it all. Because of them, I think you almost have to build the deal around Okafor. You're going to need all of those young cheap rookie deals to fill out the roster after you sign Smith IMO.

What is ATL trying to accomplish? They're trying to get something for Smith so he doesn't leave for nothing. But he's coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and his value is probably at one of it's slowest points. I think he'd constitute buying low as far as trade assets are concerned. But cap space is also valuable for ATL so they don't have to deal him if they don't get something that helps them back. They probably want to rebuild around Horford and most of the roster is open. I'd imagine they don't want any long term big contracts, and they do want something good and young or a draft pick(s) out of it.

Josh is in his 9th year. He's not going to get better from here on out. BUT, his level of play should pick up. For one thing, playing with a PG like Wall would be a big plus for a player like Josh Smith. He's never had a good PG in ATL and a guy like him needs a good PG or else he's going to shot jack. Also you have to figure he'll regress back to his mean, especially once he's happy. A change of scenery could help.

Smith at PF is a good fit for us. Smith at SF is not. He bumps Nene to C and that's a nice front court. Nene is a positional defender and boxes out. Smith eats up rebounds and can come over from the weak side to block shots.

The big plus of signing Smith is that he's a DPOY caliber defender that led the league in defensive win shares last season. With defensive bigs as good as him and Nene, our defense could truly be elite. Especially as Wall and Beal grow into the kind of perimeter defenders they are capable of being. The team would be athletic enough to run a transition offense and powerful enough to slow down and defend in the half court.

His scoring would drop but his efficiency would climb and his rebounding would probably climb.

Trade for him, top ten protect the pick for this year and top 5 protect it for next year. It's a bit of a gamble since we're almost certainly picking top ten this year and you never know if we'll be picking top five next year--particularly if Josh Smith left in FA.

Use the draft pick on the best potential center or small forward available. If you get Shabazz or Otto Porter or Anthony Bennett, start them at SF as a rookie most likely. If you get Nerlens or Zeller or Len, you can afford to bring them along very slowly and let their bodies develop for the NBA. At that point, both Porter and Muhammad would be such great fits. Porter especially, because he can rebound and shoot. I think that group could probably be the best starting 5 in the league in a couple years.

The whole outlook of the Wizards gets changed in just two more big moves.

2013/2014 roster:

PG: Wall, Price

SG: Beal, Temple

SF: Muhammad/Porter, Ariza

PF: Smith, Ves/Singleton/Booker

C: Nene, X

That's a powerful team. Smith kind of puts us on the map and is a signal we're ready to make the playoffs and maybe get out of the first round.

But you've got to make the financials work. You've got to clear out the PF depth. You've got to get Smith to extend for a smart contract. You've got to make that draft pick count too, since it's the last high pick we'd probably be getting for a while.

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 10:19 AM ----------

Wall

Beal

Ariza

Smith

Nene

could legitimately be the best defensive team in the league next season.

great post....I agree with just about everything you said. This is a good plan and I hope we can execute.

[CrypticVillain]

I always liked Smith. Yeah, he does jack up a lot of J's, but I think he makes up for it in other parts of his game.

With that being said, I agree with everybody, if the Hawks are trying to get our first round pick for next year they can kick rocks....

[Going Commando]

If we go out and add Smith, that Wall, Beal, Ariza, Smith, Nene lineup would have no one outside of Beal that could stretch the floor. We need a stretch 4 more than anything else and Smith doesn't fit that mold. I would LOVE for this team to take a flyer on Matt Bonner. See what it would take to get him. Having him off the bench > having Josh Smith as a starter. I think there is more value there than with Smith.

Smith does have a 3 ball though. He can make one a game. Put him at PF and Nene at C and it's a better shooting lineup than what we have today.

Bonner only has a 3 ball. He's a cheap bench player because he can't rebound, defend, or score in any other way aside from catching and shooting jumpers from long distance. One doesn't preclude the other. You could acquire Smith to start at PF and still have Bonner perform the exact same role off the bench.

[SuperBash]

Plus, I feel like ATL can get a better package than what we can offer.

[Going Commando]

Steve, they were measuring Smith's shots from 7.5 feet within the basket and more than 7.5 feet from the basket. That's where they are getting the percentages from.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought they literally just meant shots at the rim, layups and dunks and tip ins and really short hooks. Those shots are easy and have a ton of players in the same tier as guys like Duncan and Smith, hard to call them elite at that specific shot

7.5 feet is inside the lane and has a bit of range on it. You're talking about much harder shots out to that range. All kinds of little jumpers and hooks that would qualify that would depress your shooting percentage.

So we can infer he's good at shooting close range jumpers right? IMO that would make him a good pair with Nene who is good at feeding the other big man close to the basket.

And also, I saw John Wall gave out a jersey on his facebook page. The winner? His name was Steve McQueen

His real name is Steve McQueen? I'm doubly envious. His life is probably awesome.

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 11:41 AM ----------

If they can somehow get Smith without giving up Wall/Beal/Nene/1st pick this year, while extending him and not crippling our team's ability in the future to resign Wall and Beal...then I say go for it. Easier said than done.

That would be a huge coup. I don't know how you do it. And I don't think I trust Ernie to accomplish all of that. But I do think it's possible depending on what kind of deal Smith is willing to accept.

- Smith for ~13-14 million annually could make it possible.

- Wall for 12-13 million annually would help. That'd be about 40 million for the three players and Beal is still on his rookie deal for a long time. You could get decent depth put in place if you go a little cheap and stay under the luxury tax for years.

- Nene's deal comes off the books around the same time you have to negotiate with Beal. You'd have to let Nene walk and hope Beal doesn't qualify for the 17 million dollar extension.

- Smith's deal would be coming off the books around the time we'd have to negotiate with this year's draft pick, so I believe we'd keep our long term flexibility open by letting Smith walk in the event we draft an All Star with this pick.

I don't know, I think it can be done. But like you said, how do you float a deal to Atl that someone else can't beat? It's got to have expirings probably and it definitely has to have something young and appealing in it. I'm thinking you have to either put future picks in it or this year's pick.

And the only way I think we can include this year's pick is to protect it. I'd prefer top ten protection but I'd probably settle for top 8 protection. If not, I want ATL to include their draft pick and I start working the phones to move up from that pick up into the lottery.

And I think you also have to put Seraphin into the deal. He's the only really attractive young player we've got.

Okafor + Seraphin + protected first rounder or top 5 protected 2014 first rounder--good enough to get a deal done? You could add Crawford too. And if you take back someone like Pachulia you could start adding several players to Okafor + Seraphin.

Edited February 19, 2013 by stevemcqueen1

[Gator Bait]

Plus, I feel like ATL can get a better package than what we can offer.

this is what it's going to come down to. I'm thinking he will end up in Phoenix...they are desperate to make something happen. You could also consider teams like Boston and NJ looking to make a big splash.

Brooklyn offered Marshon Brooks and Kris Humphries; ATL offered Philly Smith for Evan Turner and Spenser Hawes (What about Bynum straight up??)

Phoenix could offer Gortat, Kendal Marshall, and Wesley Johnson. Wiz could offer Okafor, Webster, Crawford, Seraphin

---------- Post added February-19th-2013 at 11:55 AM ----------

I'm thinking this is going to be a multi team deal. I came up with two realistic deals that make sense for all teams involved...unfortunately, the one that makes the most sense doesn't include us.

Wizards trade: Okafor, Ariza, Seraphin, Webster

receive: Smith, Butler, Rush

why? We get Smith to play 4 and Nene to play 5 (like Steve mentioned before) and pencil in Caron at the 3 for the next two years while our 2013 draft pick is adapting to the NBA

Hawks trade: Smith, Pachulia, Korver

receive: Okafor, Ariza, Seraphin, Bledsoe

why? Hawks get 20 million in expiring contracts that they can flip for an asset next year at the trade deadline; they also get a young promising backup center and an upgrade at point guard with two years left on his rookie deal

Clippers trade: Jordan, Bledsoe, Butler

receive: Jack, Pachulia, Korver, Webster

why? Clippers dump money and set themselves up to acquire D12 in the offseason (I've heard lots of rumors of the clips trying to dump Jordan and Butler for salary cap reasons). The best part is they still stay competitive this year adding four guys with expiring contract who can all contribute now.

Warriors trade: Jack, Rush

receive: Jordan

why? The warriors wanted Jordan two years ago and signed him to an offer sheet, but the Clippers matched. Since then they traded for Bogut (who has been a huge disaster...the guy is never going to be able to stay healthy) he comes off the books in two years.

even better trade scenario:

Clippers trade: Jordan, Bledsoe, Butler

receive: Howard

why? Obvious why....they have the best front court in basketball to go along with CP3 and Jamal Crawford

Lakers trade: Howard

receive: Smith, Butler, Teague

why? They receive a young PG to groom under Steve Nash and a franchise front court player for the future.

Hawks trade: Smith

receive: Jordan and Bledsoe

why? They receive the young center they are after and can move Horford to PF; they also upgrade at PG

[RonArtest15]

Smith does have a 3 ball though. He can make one a game. Put him at PF and Nene at C and it's a better shooting lineup than what we have today.

Bonner only has a 3 ball. He's a cheap bench player because he can't rebound, defend, or score in any other way aside from catching and shooting jumpers from long distance. One doesn't preclude the other. You could acquire Smith to start at PF and still have Bonner perform the exact same role off the bench.

Smith doesn't stretch the floor because he's not a threat from the outside - even with him making 1 3pter per game.

I don't like the move and HOPE EG doesn't pull the trigger on it.

also:

@Gambo620 I'll say it one more time. The Suns have no interest in Josh Smith. This is Atlanta trying to create a market for a player they want to move

Maaaaybe we're really not in on this as well.