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NFL Draft 2010


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For every Tom Brady, there's 100+ Jessie Palmer. QB drafte top 10 have almost 50% being good. After that number drops into teens and lower the deeper into draft you go. After 1st rd, you might as well not draft one because you are going to just waste a pick.

If you want to take that approach, fine, but don't try to justify taking a qb over oline based off of the colts line this year. that line is the exception, an exception that is made because probably the greatest qb of all time is calling the protections at the line. but make no mistake about it, there are no peytons in this year's draft class.

as for you superficial statistics, lets look at last year:

1st rounder qbs - Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman. (maybe 1 out of 3 will pan out)(top 10 = maybe 1-2)

4th rounder qb - Stephen McGee

Nobody else of note in later rounds.

Of these four qb's Freeman and McGee look to have the brightest future. Stafford will be retired within 2 years from post concussion syndrome since they have failed to ever draft a lineman, and sanchez might pan out to be a Jeff Garcia type.

Lets look at 2008:

1st rounder qbs - Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco (I'll give you 2 out of 2, for now)

Ryan and Flacco are good qb's; they also have awesome lines in front of them and a great running game. nothing that they have brought to the table speaks volumes at this point in their career to being "franchise qb's."

How bout 2007:

1st rounder qbs - Jamarcus Russel & Brady Quinn (0 for 2)(top 10 = 0-1)

You think Oakland might have rather drafted Joe Thomas or Levi Brown instead? At least the two didn't pass up Adrian Peterson

How bout 2006:

1st rounder qbs - Vince Young & Matt Lienhert (0 for 2) (top 10 = 0-1)

How they doing? About as good as Tavaras Jackson (2), Brodie Croyle (3), Bruce Gradkowski (6), and D.J. Shockley (7).

2005 - The Wonder Year:

1st Rounder Qbs - Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, & Jason Campbell (1 for 3) (top ten = 0-1)

Late Rounders - Orton (4) & Derek Anderson (6)

Since you obviously don't buy into J.C., I guess you got 1 out of 3 in that class.

So basically since, 2005, top ten qbs are about 3 -7 and first round qb hits or misses have been about 4-12...hmm that sounds about good enough to get a head coach fired.

point is, you don't chase a qb at number 4 unless its a sure thing. there are no sure things in this draft class. your rational is flawed if you really think that drafting a first rounder is 50/50

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BPA

We're a 4 win team going in a new direction. We're going to rebuild lots of things. Don't worry though, there are QBs and Tackles worthy of a top 5 pick.

I hope people watch the bowl game on Thursday and realize you can't let a player like Rolando McClain slip by. There are lots of players like that available at #4.

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I was hoping for OT Russell Okung and RB Jahvid Best in the first two rounds. Best could be had in the early 2nd round possibly due to his injury, and could be a similar back to Chris Johnson. A guy who can break the big play on any carry. And Russell Okung could immediately step in to replace Samuels at LT. A corner piece to rebuild the line around.

But it's sounding more like a QB in the first and OL in the second if the buzz is accurate.

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If you want to take that approach, fine, but don't try to justify taking a qb over oline based off of the colts line this year. that line is the exception, an exception that is made because probably the greatest qb of all time is calling the protections at the line. but make no mistake about it, there are no peytons in this year's draft class.

as for you superficial statistics, lets look at last year:

1st rounder qbs - Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman. (maybe 1 out of 3 will pan out)(top 10 = maybe 1-2)

4th rounder qb - Stephen McGee

Nobody else of note in later rounds.

Of these four qb's Freeman and McGee look to have the brightest future. Stafford will be retired within 2 years from post concussion syndrome since they have failed to ever draft a lineman, and sanchez might pan out to be a Jeff Garcia type.

Lets look at 2008:

1st rounder qbs - Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco (I'll give you 2 out of 2, for now)

Ryan and Flacco are good qb's; they also have awesome lines in front of them and a great running game. nothing that they have brought to the table speaks volumes at this point in their career to being "franchise qb's."

How bout 2007:

1st rounder qbs - Jamarcus Russel & Brady Quinn (0 for 2)(top 10 = 0-1)

You think Oakland might have rather drafted Joe Thomas or Levi Brown instead? At least the two didn't pass up Adrian Peterson

How bout 2006:

1st rounder qbs - Vince Young & Matt Lienhert (0 for 2) (top 10 = 0-1)

How they doing? About as good as Tavaras Jackson (2), Brodie Croyle (3), Bruce Gradkowski (6), and D.J. Shockley (7).

2005 - The Wonder Year:

1st Rounder Qbs - Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, & Jason Campbell (1 for 3) (top ten = 0-1)

Late Rounders - Orton (4) & Derek Anderson (6)

Since you obviously don't buy into J.C., I guess you got 1 out of 3 in that class.

So basically since, 2005, top ten qbs are about 3 -7 and first round qb hits or misses have been about 4-12...hmm that sounds about good enough to get a head coach fired.

point is, you don't chase a qb at number 4 unless its a sure thing. there are no sure things in this draft class. your rational is flawed if you really think that drafting a first rounder is 50/50

Read again. I said TOP 10 QB DRAFTED have almost 50% chance of being good. According to you, it's still 3/7 = 43%. It's too early with Sanchez to tell seeing how ES loves giving guys chances 5+ years later.

As for the rest, it's 1/5 and that's why I keep telling people it's wasting a pick drafting one not Top 10 rated. You can imagine how more worse it gets deeper into the draft, 2nd, 3rd and so on.

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take the best OT at #4, unless you only have a 3rd round grade on the guys left, which is hard to imagine. If the only OT at #4 will not turn into at least a decent starter, trade down for a 1st & 2nd round pick in either this years draft or next, then take the best OL you can find.

I get so damn angry when I see all these rookies/2nd year guys who where taken in the later rounds of the draft starting and playing well for other teams. Out of the 18 late round OL picks I have followed for the past two years, 12 of them are starters, 3 are backups to aging veterans and 3 are no longer in the league. Had we drafted just 1 of those OL in each of the past 2 years, chances are the O line would not be such a huge problem. Maybe 1 hole to fill, not 3 (4 or 5 in some other people's opinion) like we have now.

All the teams problems will not be solved in this draft, this thing will take time and if they try to rush it, it will just get screwed up.

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I picked trade down. I would like either Bradford or clausen, but want more picks. If one of those two is off the board already then make the pick. If we get a blockbuster trade offered then I don't care who is on the board trade. We need a franchise QB we can get a starting OL in the second, and hopefully we can pick up an extra 2nd.

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They have more holes than draft picks, so trade down. Quality players are clearly important, but for this team one high profile player won't be enough.

I'm no expert, but none of these QBs is worth the "bust" risk when our current QB is at least serviceable. Draft a QB if you must, but further down.

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I was hoping for OT Russell Okung and RB Jahvid Best in the first two rounds. Best could be had in the early 2nd round possibly due to his injury, and could be a similar back to Chris Johnson. A guy who can break the big play on any carry. And Russell Okung could immediately step in to replace Samuels at LT. A corner piece to rebuild the line around.

But it's sounding more like a QB in the first and OL in the second if the buzz is accurate.

OMG, I'd do a dam backflip if we were able to draft Okung AND Jahvid Best. Im not a HUGE college fan. I really like it, but I dont follow all of the players like that. But I do follow Best. I would go ape ---- if we got him. That dude has JETS. ANNNND he has great catching skills. Whoever gets that kid is going to be lucky....

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Read again. I said TOP 10 QB DRAFTED have almost 50% chance of being good. According to you, it's still 3/7 = 43%. It's too early with Sanchez to tell seeing how ES loves giving guys chances 5+ years later.

As for the rest, it's 1/5 and that's why I keep telling people it's not worth it to draft one not Top 10 rated ones. You can imagine how more worse it gets deeper into the draft, 2nd, 3rd and so on.

read my post more closely, i did analyze the top 10 picks. to say that 3/7 is good is not a risk i'm taking over okung. and more to the point, none of these qbs even mentioned this year have a shot at being one of the "3." (i should also point out that factoring in the past two seasons is really presumptious considering 2 seasons, let alone 1, does not make for a valid determination on a qb's status as either a bust or a good pick.)

you don't just take a qb in the top 10 because he's the best qb in the draft class. these qb's this year are not nfl qb's, or at least are not worthy of top 10 qb status. the drop off between bradford and a guy like matt kafka is marginal, and in fact, i'd rather have kafka in the late rounds. he's much more suited to lead an nfl team physically and mentally than bradford, in my opinion. (plus he's played this year.) and to think that bradford is that much of an upgrade over colt brennan who at least has nfl experience is rather ridiculous.

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Its not a question of what ... its a question of who... Bradford or Clausen. They will both be studs ala ... Ryan, Flacco, Stafford and Sanchez. If its a top 5 pick and its a QB ... you usually get what you pay for!

Except when you reach and don't get what you pay for. I don't think either of those guys are worth a top 5 or even top 10 pick. IMO neither of them have the experience of Ryan, the tools of Flacco, or the upside of Stafford and Sanchez. Sanchez was a much better prospect coming out and the wheels came off of his season eventually. Ryan went to a team that had other good pieces in place on the OL and a very good running game. Flacco was also surrounded by good talent and a dominant defense. Stafford got thrown to the wolves behind a crappy, neglected line and look what happened. He got injured. Who would have thought?

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QB. QB. QB. Then OL. Franchise QB's (if Bradford or another is a true one) dont come along often. I trust Allen & Shanny to make the right choice, much more than I do Snyder and Vinny.

Shann is savvy enough to get some OL help via draft and FA to protect a young QB. It's not going to pay off right away but at least they cant get any worse next season.

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Like I said in another thread, with no CBA trade our first and Rogers to the 49ers for their #13 and #17

Get a OT (Okung gone, one of Williams, Campbell, Davis should be there) and then you can take Spiller, Terrence Cody (if they really want to switch to a 3-4), Colt McCoy (if they think he's worthy), maybe even Bulaga as a RT or OG.

We'd still get an OT after trading down and then add another solid talent. If not Spiller with #17, I'd like to see Best at #2 (as long as OT has been covered).

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OMG, I'd do a dam backflip if we were able to draft Okung AND Jahvid Best. Im not a HUGE college fan. I really like it, but I dont follow all of the players like that. But I do follow Best. I would go ape ---- if we got him. That dude has JETS. ANNNND he has great catching skills. Whoever gets that kid is going to be lucky....

As much as I like Best, My preference would be Okung (or even Anthony Davis...depending on what happens up to the draft) in the 1st and then Mike Iupati, Guard from Idaho with our high 2nd rounder. The guy is an absolute mauler and definitely the best Guard in the draft. In two picks we very well might have solidified the left side of our line for a decade. We do need fresh legs at RB but I'd rather go with stud OL and then look for a value RB in the 3rd (if we can get into the 3rd) or later.

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I say it depends on what happens ahead of us (obviously)....

I worry about taking a QB with this #4 pick. It will have to be a HUGE and expensive contract for a player that has a large amount of risk attached. I voted for O-Line (Okung ideally) but what would be best for the Skins IMHO would be for Suh to somehow fall to #4 and for us to drop a few spots and pick up an extra first round pick. I would sure love to see the Skins finish off the first day of the draft with some quality O-line (2 top tier guys) help and maybe a top 5 QB.

then Mike Iupati, Guard from Idaho with our high 2nd rounder. The guy is an absolute mauler and definitely the best Guard in the draft.

YES! Agree and would sure love to see a Vandal back on that O-line.

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QB. QB. QB. Then OL. Franchise QB's (if Bradford or another is a true one) dont come along often. I trust Allen & Shanny to make the right choice, much more than I do Snyder and Vinny.

Shann is savvy enough to get some OL help via draft and FA to protect a young QB. It's not going to pay off right away but at least they cant get any worse next season.

If they go this way, I'll be cool with it. I just don't know how I feel about Claussen or Bradford. I feel like a few guys (2nd or 3rd rounders) could be franchise guys too and getting protection will give them a chance to play without the fear that Campbell has developed.

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