Jason Campbell: a deeper look into his numbers this season

[RocketCitySkins]

Did you actually read the stats? Jason Campbell in no way shape or form has had numbers anywhere close to what the other QB's had. I wouldn't call Jeff Garcia a hall of fame QB. Probably mediocre at best, yet, he has performed better than Jason Campbell.

Secondly, these are Jason Campbell's y/a numbers in 2006, 2007 and 2008:

2006: 6.3 Y/A

2007(second year in Al Saunders' system--you would expect big improvement): 6.5 Y/A

2008: 6.4 Y/A

In other words he hasn't made any improvements. The "new system" excuse is laughable at best because in 2007, Tood Collina's y/a number was 8.5.

You just disproved your own post about being in a new system. Collins was in Saunders system for 8 or 9 years.

[No Excuses]

with the same personnel and running game, Oline coach, defense, team, surrounding, etc?

This "first year in the scheme" stuff is tiresome. Campbell is a 4 year guy now. As Dick Vermeil once said, time to take the diapers off.

Exactly right. And why comapre Campbells YPA to other QB's when you can notice a trend in his own?

2006 Campbell was 6.3

2007 Campbell was 6.5

2008 Campbell was 6.4

It's a two and a half year trend in two different systems that suggests that Campbell is stuck at the level of a game managing dink and dunk passer. How much blame can you put on others when the QB can't succeed in different systems?

He really has to prove next year that he can challenge teams vertically. A vertical passing game has held this team back a lot for the past 3 years.

[lovellj]

Absolutely. The team could improve in lots of areas. All teams can. But with a top 5 defense, pro bowl TE, RB, WR, and all pro LT until injury, coupled with an 8-8 record and the most anemic passing attack in the NFL, it's fairly normal to wonder out loud if we have the right guy behind center or not.

Or if by simply making a change there we could elevate the play of the entire team.

I personally think Collins' time is done, but I do think he would hve surprised the hell out of some people if he'd stepped in this year, despite his shaky preseason. I don't know anything about Colt other than he had a great preseason against 3rd string. So did Kevin Kolb though.

Personally, I'd like to see us use our #13 on a QB. I know I'm in the minority though.

I really don't see the light going off for Campbell. Could it? Sure. And who wouldn't be thrilled ****less if it did? Cowboy fans, thats who. But at this point in his career if he all of a sudden "gets it"... I think it will a surprise to everyone, even his most ardent supporters.

And a discussion about the QB is not about being a "hater" or anything else... it's simply another way to approach what we think is in the best interests of the team we love.

.......

Which is fair Zoony. But reading some of the Cult of Colt threads and some of the Game Threads, there are indications that some "fans" (e.g. the "Campbell Haters") are actively rooting for Campbell to fail (or, even worse, sustain a significant injury [re the Cincinatti game]) so that Colt will come in...which has created a degree of animosity and hostility in those that still have hope for JC (e.g. "The Campbell Defenders"). Unfortunately, this has created an environment (though not a unique one, see Brunell vs. Ramsey and Brunell v. Campbell) where the extremists on each side of the debate have created an environment where rational objections and defenses are ridiculed or ignored. I happen to fall in the latter of the two categories, but can see the validity of the criticisms lobbed at JC. I'm just looking at things in the long term, and believe that giving JC half a season more really isn't too much ask.

[redskins59]

You just disproved your own post about being in a new system. Collins was in Saunders system for 8 or 9 years.

That was Campbell's second year in Saunders' system. No real improvement.

[chow184]

with the same personnel and running game, Oline coach, defense, team, surrounding, etc?

This "first year in the scheme" stuff is tiresome. Campbell is a 4 year guy now. As Dick Vermeil once said, time to take the diapers off.

it's relevant

a team learning a new scheme is more likely to do worse than a team who has been in a scheme for a number of years

see matt hasslebeck

see mcnabb

see tommy brady

see basically any QB who did well over a period of time.

they all got better as they stayed in the scheme

trying to compare campbells ability after his first year stint in the WC, to polished veteran QB's is a joke. you're only going to see skewed results against campbell. I could take the first year of any QB and show you some skewed stats.

it's a joke.

[zoony]

You are exactly right. Which is why Tennessee is 13-3 with a game manager QB and we are 8-8 with another game manager QB. Tennessee has the tools to support a QB who doesn't make plays, we don't.

Tennessee has taken the Schottenheimer approach to building a team. Doing it blue-collar style and simply physically dominating your opponents. Playing conservative and not to lose, and punching your opponent in the mouth. More often than not you can beat up on most teams in the league this way.

However, I think they'll be out in the playoffs just like Marty's teams. When the scope of the league narrows from 32 teams to 12, and then to 8 by the time it's your turn to play... you're chances of winning without a dynamic offense are greatly reduced. Teams that HAVE been able to win on muscle alone come along very rarely, and are extremely difficult to assemble in the modern era under the cap... i.e. 2000 Ravens, etc.

Which is a shame, b/c TN is my sentimental favorite at this point

[RocketCitySkins]

That was Campbell's second year in Saunders' system. No real improvement.

And Collins, himself, has said it takes a year to learn Saunders system and three years to run it.

Hasselbeck has said it takes three years to learn and run the WCO.

[zoony]

Exactly right. And why comapre Campbells YPA to other QB's when you can notice a trend in his own?

2006 Campbell was 6.3

2007 Campbell was 6.5

2008 Campbell was 6.4

It's a two and a half year trend in two different systems that suggests that Campbell is stuck at the level of a game managing dink and dunk passer. How much blame can you put on others when the QB can't succeed in different systems?

He really has to prove next year that he can challenge teams vertically. A vertical passing game has held this team back a lot for the past 3 years.

Anyone have Todd Collins YPA in 2007? That would be very interesting. Same scheme, same players, etc.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Personally, I'd like to see us use our #13 on a QB. I know I'm in the minority though.

.......

Been having the same thoughts myself zoony.

I apreciate the needs on both lines, but with QB being the most important position on ANY team, and given the Redskins continued failings at the position, it's something we need to fix once and for all. This has gone on for WAY too long.

But I was more thinking using that pick to trade for a proven signal caller.

That said, I admit to watching very few college games this year, so what exactly the strength is of this years class I couldn't say. Anyone that has, is there many standouts? Would a high pick lead to someone we could develop quicker than last years 6th round pick who's had a year studying the system and attuning to pro life?

Hail.

[#21Taylor4Ever]

Ah the life of a QB. You are the team leader, and you run the show on the field. With that, you are going to shoulder the blame when a team fails.

And Campbell does do just that. Haven't you heard any of his post-game interviews? He may not show emotion, but he definitely takes the blame.

[Oldfan]

In a way, both. A quarterbacks play definitely depends on what surrounds him. But in this case, it seems to be a trend of the QB and not of the surroundings. Campbell was terrible in regards to being a vertical passer under Saunders and he was the same this season under Zorn. Campbell has had a good offensive line in the past and his entire career he has had weapons that a lot of the QB's in this league would love to have.

Schemes have an effect on a player but after a while, you need throw that out of the window and look at the totality of the numbers. Jason Campbell despite the system he has played in so far, has been a dink and dunk master. He didn't challenge defenses after being in Saunders system for two years and he didn't improve upon it in Zorn's as the season went along.

I think at this point there are too many excuses for JC, but people are ignoring a trend in his career which is regardless of when he had good protection or not. When he has had good surrounding player (mostly a good offensive line), he has still been very bad in challenging teams vertically or throwing TD's. He is a first round pick who is heading into his fifth season. Way too many question marks about his game in my opinion.

While I appreciate the fact that you are trying to make a more substantial argument here using statistics, you can't make it work.

You can't take a measurement of a phenomenon caused by an interaction of factors A,B,C,D,E and F and then claim that it's a measurement of A.

[redskins59]

And Collins, himself, has said it takes a year to learn Saunders system and three years to run it.

Hasselbeck has said it takes three years to learn and run the WCO.

You should still see improvements though. I really didn't see any in his second year as the starter in Saunders' system.

[Ghost of]

You are exactly right. Which is why Tennessee is 13-3 with a game manager QB and we are 8-8 with another game manager QB. Tennessee has the tools to support a QB who doesn't make plays, we don't.

I wonder if it's getting through.

You don't "wait on" a QB to 'grow into' a bus-driving QB. You don't sacrifice seasons (as we did last year, let's be honest, we could have had homefield advantage with Collins and maybe we got a lot further as a result) to a QB who MAY be an OK Qb if you surround him with a stellar supporting cast.

You look to replace someone like that as soon as possible. The other thing is, you can KEEP someone like that on the ROSTER but let them continue to grow until they demonstrate they have the grasp of the game (like a Collins) to make just enough plays and manage a game. Campbell is not old like Collins to trust with just doing ENOUGH right things and he's not gifted enough (apparently) to be entitled to a spot based on fantastic, though erratic, production.

Again, I think you can keep Jason around and maybe he does develop and is a good fill-in starter and gives you a year or two of quality production but you don't put your franchise on hold for that.

Especially for someone who was drafted in the first round.

[IHOPSkins]

...... Campbell is stuck at the level of a game managing dink and dunk passer.....

To me Dink and Dunk is OK

The problem is JC hitting WRs IN STRIDE.....he usually doesn't

This effects yardage after the catch

Hell

JC can't throw the long ball without the WR having to adjust

[Ghost of]

Anyone have Todd Collins YPA in 2007? That would be very interesting. Same scheme, same players, etc.

It was 8.4.

And I think there was a point where we had over 10 YPA for a stretch.

[zoony]

it's relevant

a team learning a new scheme is more likely to do worse than a team who has been in a scheme for a number of years

see matt hasslebeck

see mcnabb

see tommy brady

see basically any QB who did well over a period of time.

they all got better as they stayed in the scheme

trying to compare campbells ability after his first year stint in the WC, to polished veteran QB's is a joke. you're only going to see skewed results against campbell. I could take the first year of any QB and show you some skewed stats.

it's a joke.

How did Drew Brees do in his first year in New Orleans? Was that a new system for him?

And I'm pretty sure all those QB's on your list led their teams to the playoffs within 2 years in the NFL (not sure about Hasselbeck). Campbell had 3 years with Gibbs. But it was Todd Collins who came in and led us to the playoffs.

[zoony]

It was 8.4.

And I think there was a point where we had over 10 YPA for a stretch.

:munchout::munchout::munchout::munchout::munchout:

[brandymac27]

No," new coach Jim Zorn said, leaving no room for interpretation. "If (Collins) plays lights out, and we sputter with Jason my job is to get Jason up to speed by the time the season opens."

POLITICS picked JC, not performance

I agree with you here, but why would the FO do this? Who does this really benefit? Their ego's? Even then, the fact that the team is mediocre is more of a hit to your ego, IMO, than being afraid that the starting QB can't get the job done.

[#21Taylor4Ever]

Did you actually read the stats? Jason Campbell in no way shape or form has had numbers anywhere close to what the other QB's had. I wouldn't call Jeff Garcia a hall of fame QB. Probably mediocre at best, yet, he has performed better than Jason Campbell.

Secondly, these are Jason Campbell's y/a numbers in 2006, 2007 and 2008:

2006: 6.3 Y/A

2007(second year in Al Saunders' system--you would expect big improvement): 6.5 Y/A

2008: 6.4 Y/A

In other words he hasn't made any improvements. The "new system" excuse is laughable at best because in 2007, Todd Collins' y/a number was 8.5.

I read the numbers and Campbell's were not much far from those HOF QBs.

As for Collins' numbers, are those his year 1 or year 9 numbers??

[redskins59]

Drew Brees in 2006 in a new system in New Orleans: 8.0 Y/A

In fact his y/a improved that year compared to his prior years.

[zoony]

Been having the same thoughts myself zoony.

I apreciate the needs on both lines, but with QB being the most important position on ANY team, and given the Redskins continued failings at the position, it's something we need to fix once and for all. This has gone on for WAY too long.

But I was more thinking using that pick to trade for a proven signal caller.

That said, I admit to watching very few college games this year, so what exactly the strength is of this years class I couldn't say. Anyone that has, is there many standouts? Would a high pick lead to someone we could develop quicker than last years 6th round pick who's had a year studying the system and attuning to pro life?

Hail.

Great minds :cheers;

I'm not much of a draft/college guy, but from what I understand this years' QB class is somewhat weak. But who knows. It's the princible of the thing-QB has to be priority

As for trade, not sure who is out there that we could try to get. Teams are super-reluctant to trade quality QBs for a very important reason. The Drew Brees deal landing him in NO was probably the greatest heist in the past decade.

[NeueRedskinWelle]

While I appreciate the fact that you are trying to make a more substantial argument here using statistics, you can't make it work.

You can't take a measurement of a phenomenon caused by an interaction of factors A,B,C,D,E and F and then claim that it's a measurement of A.

Then why do we keep stats at all?

[No Excuses]

While I appreciate the fact that you are trying to make a more substantial argument here using statistics, you can't make it work.

You can't take a measurement of a phenomenon caused by an interaction of factors A,B,C,D,E and F and then claim that it's a measurement of A.

It is a phenomenon that has direct correlations with many others, like TD's, INTs, winning % and overall effectiveness. I wouldn't have posted it if it couldn't have been related to other things or it weren't a trend in his career.

I'm not using them to judge Campbell individually, I'm using them to compare him to what other QB's did and where he stands in the league in terms of being an effective passer.

[zoony]

Which is fair Zoony. But reading some of the Cult of Colt threads and some of the Game Threads, there are indications that some "fans" (e.g. the "Campbell Haters") are actively rooting for Campbell to fail (or, even worse, sustain a significant injury [re the Cincinatti game]) so that Colt will come in...which has created a degree of animosity and hostility in those that still have hope for JC (e.g. "The Campbell Defenders"). Unfortunately, this has created an environment (though not a unique one, see Brunell vs. Ramsey and Brunell v. Campbell) where the extremists on each side of the debate have created an environment where rational objections and defenses are ridiculed or ignored. I happen to fall in the latter of the two categories, but can see the validity of the criticisms lobbed at JC. I'm just looking at things in the long term, and believe that giving JC half a season more really isn't too much ask.

Welcome to ES

As for Colt- see my Kevin Kolb reference above. He looked great in preseason too. Colt is simply an unknown at this point. However I think what Redskins fans saw more than anything was moxie, accuracy, and performance under pressure. That's impressive at any level, and something we've sorely lacked here for some time.

But no doubt the cult of colt is ridiculous. For others, like myself, I would have just loved to see him out there in one of the last two games... if nothing else than to shut everyone up if he failed. Call it the "Andy Reid" approach Or if he DOESN'T fail- you're loving it Win-win as far as I'm concerned

[No Excuses]

I read the numbers and Campbell's were not much far from those HOF QBs.

As for Collins' numbers, are those his year 1 or year 9 numbers??

Campbell's number are indeed far. A difference of .4 or .5 might not seem much but when you run the numbers and look at the direct relation of a 6.4 average or a 7.0 average on other stats, the difference is huge.