michael_33 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Personally....I think the only guy we milk the farm for is Calvin Johnson..! If somehow he fell to #6,I could see 1/2 a dozen teams that would want to try to screw us with deals...That dude ran a 4:35/40.. I kinda hope that if we DO trade down we go no further than 16 on the deal...(1/2 the nfl teams) I think we could still land a top 10 blue chip talent at that spot...While aquiring a 2nd rounder and other picks.. The perfect scenario in my opinion,is we trade down to around 10-12 and land a 2nd rounder while still getting our guy Alan Branch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaron Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Here is how I see the beginning of the draft breaking down: 1. Oakland - Russell 2. Detroit - Quinn 3. Cleveland - Peterson 4. Tampa - Johnson 5. Arizona - Thomas 6. Washington - Anderson I hope that Detroit takes Thomas, because then there is a really good possibility that Quinn falls to us and I can definately see Houston trading up. However, as someone else said, that would mean that he would be available at #5, and Arizona would probably trade down as well. I know that a lot of people do have Detroit taking Thomas, but I can't see how they could pass on a potential franchise QB when they trotted out John Kitna last season, with Dan Orlovsky (sp?) and McCown as backups. If for some reason Tampa would pass on Calvin, I can definately see Minnesota swapping places with us to take him. Either of these trade scenarios would be ideal, because we would be guaranteed to get one of Branch, Anderson, Adams, or Okoye while also picking up extra picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. S Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 That is some good research, but I think we may be the only team who follows that draft value chart so closely. Point is, no team will give up that many picks. For some teams, a 3rd round pick could become a starter, and they can cite our Chris Cooley for that. Lots of teams just value picks more. Now, with that said, I would not mind trading down within 5 spots and getting a 2nd rounder out of it. I think the Redskins are trying to explore that idea overall, they don't want anything less than a 2nd round pick. I hope Brady Quinn is stil there at 6th, cause Minnesota and Houston would then salivate for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veretax Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 We would be more likely to get Samuel from NE then all those picks. And I think trading down for their first a late 2nd or third and Samuel would be worth it maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 FM put a premium on getting picks this year, there are numerous other scenarios per team, but as he stated he listed the equal Draft Chart Values with the most picks for this year being the emphasis. Realistically I can see some of the teams after pick 11 or so trading this years 2nd and next years 2nd for a move up, then chucking in picks to equal or come close to value. Most teams do follow that value chart, we usually screwed by it. We can hold conference calls with potential trade partners if any of the following fall to us (In order of the highest value) CJ - obvious Quinn - All three teams that pick after us need a Franchise QB, This is probably the best situation for us considering we can at most drop down 3 spots and more then likely milk at least a high second this year in a bidding war. Peterson-would have a couple of teams interested including Denver, I would want at least a 30 pt premium from them as payback for the ******** we have gotten from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommDownMan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 BUFFALO Scenario #1 1st (12) - 1200 pts 2nd (43) - 470 pts 1670 points Scenario #2 1st (12) - 1200 pts 3rd (74) - 220 pts 1440 points 2008 2nd rounder GREEN BAY Scenario #1 1st (16) - 1000 pts 2nd (47) - 430 pts 3rd (78) - 200 pts 1630 points Scenario #2 1st (16) - 1000 pts 2nd (47) - 430 pts 4th (108) - 78 pts 1508 points 2008 3rd rounder HOUSTON Scenario #1 1st (8) - 1400 pts 3rd (73) - 225 pts 1625 points MINNESOTA Scenario #1 1st (7) - 1500 pts 4th (102) - 92 pts 7th (198) - 13.2 pts 1605.2 points NEW YORK JETS Scenario #1 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 2nd (59) - 310 pts 5th (154) - 30.8 pts 6th (162) - 27.6 pts 1618.4 points Scenario #2 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 2nd (59) - 310 pts 1560 points 2008 4th rounder Scenario #3 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 3rd (89) - 145 pts 1395 points 2008 2nd rounder If the heavens open up this would be my ideal draft day... 1. JaMarcus Russel - Oak 2. Joe Thomas - Det 3. Alan Branch - Browns 4. Calvin Johnson - TB 5. Gaines Adams - Cards 6. Brady Quinn - Pick traded to Minn (1.7, 3.7) 7. Adrian Peterson - Pick traded to Buff (1.12, 2.12), GB (1, 2, 4), Houston (1,3) or maybe NYJ (1,2,2) would have at least 2 3rd rounders maybe as much as a 1st, 2 2nd's and a 3rd. With the Minnesota/Jets trade we could have 1.25 - Adam Carriker, DE (moving up), maybe Patrick Willis, MLB 2.06 - Daymeion Hughes, CB 2.25 - Victor Abiamiri, DE (if Carriker, MLB here) 3.07 - Tim Duckworth, OG If Minn/Houston 1.08 - Jamaal Anderson, DE 3.07 - Tim Duckworth, OG 3.08 - Chris Houston, Marcus McCauley, Josh Gattis DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megared Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 New England would never trade up, especially considering the facts that: 1. The have two late 1st rounders (Seattle's from the Branch trade) 2. They don't like paying their players as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 New England would never trade up, especially considering the facts that: 1. The have two late 1st rounders (Seattle's from the Branch trade) 2. They don't like paying their players as is. I think the only shot we have for NE's two #1's is if CJ was to fall to us and even though that would not equal value it is all they would offer and it would be enticing. I don't think we should fall that low in the first round though, we need at least one premier DL player this year. We could still get it at the seattle old #1 but the chances are slimmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinzFan007 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 great work man. i was wondering about this kinda thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 The key is Detroit. If they really have learned their lesson, they'll take Thomas which means Quinn will fall to #6 for a trade down by the Skins. If Detroit takes Quinn then we make the pick. It seems almost cut and dried to me (which is why I'm usually WAY off base on my predictions). Then again, I suppose Cleveland and Arizona could be trade down candidates as well but teams would have to give up more to get Quinn at those spots than they would at #6. My guess is we won't trade out of the Top 12. If Minnesota ends up with David Carr then we might have to unless Gary Kubiak in Houston decides to pull the trigger. Sure, the NE scenario is enough to make you drool but there is a reason the Pats are where they've been for the past few years. They might trade up but not far enough to deal BOTH number 1 picks. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Pats actually trade down with the later of their two first round picks, especially if they use their 1st number one pick and their 2nd round pick to move up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#98QBKiller Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I like the Pittsburgh/Green Bay scenarios the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sociofan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 i like New England scenario 1 the best Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdaddy Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 #6 could be a great place to trade with Houston or Miami who both might covet Brady Quinn. Our guy(s) would still be there with their first picks as well. I'm putting my money on a deal with one of these two teams. I also wonder if Green Bay wouldn't jump up for Quinn. What has Aaron Rodgers shown them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdaddy Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 My guess is that Tampa Bay signs Jeff Garcia and then takes Calvin Johnson. Arizona would be a good bet to trade down with someone who wants Quinn. If Cleveland doesn't take Peterson and wants to trade out of their pick, all hell could break loose in this draft cause either Johnson or Quinn would go at #3. Then, Tampa could be stuck and take defense. In short, I think Cleveland or Arizona may trade down before we do which could hurt our leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redshu Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I think that a lot is going to depend on what Arizona does at 5. If Leonard Davis goes, then they will be in the market for a LT. Thomas, assuredy will be gone by then so the dilemma will be, does Zona take Levi Brown with the 5th overall pick? Certainly not, so they could end up trading down to where they could take Brown and not have to pay him top ten money. If this scenario happens, the Skins will lose leverage with the no. 6 selection. I strongly feel that the top four will go as follows: 1. Russell 2. Thomas 3. Peterson 4. Johnson 5. ? ( Glaring need will depend on Davis' status come draft time, should become more clear once free agency hits) I will hope the Cards resign their man, but they could still be looking to trade down. Their present overall need is D line, the secondary is adequate, as are the LB's. Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush. Sound like anyone you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Of all the possibilities, I still think the Niners will make the move should Branch fall to 6 (which is possible). Local stories here say that they have fallen in love with him...and its not too far of a move back (to #11). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 i like New England scenario 1 the best Something tells me NE won't... To the OP, great research! :applause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncr2h Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 If Quinn is available at #6, then he is available at #5 and the Cards make a trade. Why would they trade with Arizona when the Cardinals offer no credible threat that they would actually take Quinn, and the Skins most certainly would not take Quinn. Meaning: why would they trade with the Cards when they can trade with the Redskins? They would have to give up less to get the #6 than the #5 pick, and there is no risk that the Skins or Cards will take Quinn. Trading with the Skins would be cheaper, would place a team ahead of the pack of likely suitors for Quinn (Miami, Minn, etc.), and there would be little risk that the Cardinals would take Quinn. In summary, I think if Quinn falls to the Cards' pick, then teams looking for Quinn would be more likely to deal with US than with the Cardinals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rook Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 This is the BEST "Trade Down" thread of this year. Important information at your fingertip. Thanks for posting this. :applause: :helmet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMAN911 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 The Jets Scenario Looks Appealing Also, I Just Cant See New England Pulling The Trigger On Either One Of Those Scenarios, But If They Did, I'd Jump On It In A Heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26fan4life Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 If we had to trade down, which I really don't advise doing, I would take the #1 scenerios for Houston, Green Bay and buffalo. my reasoning is that we need to stay atleast in the mid first round as well as acquire more day 1 picks for this draft- not the 2008 future draft picks. But again I highly advise staying at 6 and picking up alan branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redshu Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Thats a very good point. Why pay someone no. 5 money, when you can pay them no. 6? If someone doesn't get a trade done with the Cards, its not like the Skins are going to scoop Quinn. It's everyone after the 6 pick that any suitors should be concerned with. Good point. This is a good thread. The funny thing is, you can basically blow this whole thing up by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostofAlvinWalton Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Thats a very good point. Why pay someone no. 5 money, when you can pay them no. 6? If someone doesn't get a trade done with the Cards, its not like the Skins are going to scoop Quinn. It's everyone after the 6 pick that any suitors should be concerned with.Good point. This is a good thread. The funny thing is, you can basically blow this whole thing up by this weekend. Why would they trade with Arizona when the Cardinals offer no credible threat that they would actually take Quinn, and the Skins most certainly would not take Quinn.Meaning: why would they trade with the Cards when they can trade with the Redskins? They would have to give up less to get the #6 than the #5 pick, and there is no risk that the Skins or Cards will take Quinn. Trading with the Skins would be cheaper, would place a team ahead of the pack of likely suitors for Quinn (Miami, Minn, etc.), and there would be little risk that the Cardinals would take Quinn. In summary, I think if Quinn falls to the Cards' pick, then teams looking for Quinn would be more likely to deal with US than with the Cardinals. Wrong. Because someone else could trade for the #5 pick. The Cards could call Minn, Houston, and Miami and tell them that the others are making offers. Houston and Minn could say, "we'll wait to trade with the Skins at #6." Then Miami could make the trade with the Cards and Houston and Miami would be screwed. The "unknown" is what draft trades are all about. The Cards and Skins will not draft Quinn, but someone could pull the trigger with the Cards and nullify a bidding war for the #6 pick. If Quinn falls just hope the Cards what Adams more than a OT. :2cents: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redshu Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Wrong. Because someone else could trade for the #5 pick. The Cards could call Minn, Houston, and Miami and tell them that the others are making offers. Houston and Minn could say, "we'll wait to trade with the Skins at #6." Then Miami could make the trade with the Cards and Houston and Miami would be screwed. The "unknown" is what draft trades are all about. The Cards and Skins will not draft Quinn, but someone could pull the trigger with the Cards and nullify a bidding war for the #6 pick. If Quinn falls just hope the Cards what Adams more than a OT. :2cents: . You're right in that respect. Its all smoke and mirrors really. I was merely pointing out the fact that the Cards could seriously screw with the Skins leverage. We also need to realize that Minnehaha could end up dealing for Schaub which would take them out of the Quinn sweepstakes. Its all speculation, with one common thread; We need Quinn to be there at 6 if we want to maximize trade potential. Like I also said previously, these threads are going to take a drastic turn over the weekend. I seriously like the idea of Fletcher coming over at Mike and I hear the Skins are going to try to go after Clements. There is also talk of Smoot coming back. Thats an upgrade of the secondary in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostofAlvinWalton Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 You're right in that respect. Its all smoke and mirrors really. I was merely pointing out the fact that the Cards could seriously screw with the Skins leverage. We also need to realize that Minnehaha could end up dealing for Schaub which would take them out of the Quinn sweepstakes. Its all speculation, with one common thread; We need Quinn to be there at 6 if we want to maximize trade potential. Like I also said previously, these threads are going to take a drastic turn over the weekend. I seriously like the idea of Fletcher coming over at Mike and I hear the Skins are going to try to go after Clements. There is also talk of Smoot coming back. Thats an upgrade of the secondary in my opinion. I don't know why I put your post in there also. :doh: I agree on the London F-B idea. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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