D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 On my other skins site I like to visit, FrankenMonkey did an excellent analysis of the available trade down scenarios in this years draft. I thought I would share it with the ES community. All of the trade down scenarios have their true draft point values and he covered some from each team. He did a lot of work on this and I want to thank him as this can help everyone while we are dreaming of trades or picks to come. Edit: This will also show of us the value of the sixth pick and what we can get for it. http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?S=71&F=1348#S=71&F=1348&T=164207 Inspired by another thread, I decided to estimate the possible trade scenarios with virtually every NFL team for the #6 pick (1600 points). This is speculation for the #6 pick alone and doesn't consider the Skins packaging additional picks to even out trades with potential trade partners. Now, in determining the possible trade scenarios, I made a safe assumption that the Skins would be looking to pick up at least one pick somewhere in rounds 2, 3, and 4 (rather than picking up extra picks in 2008 instead). These trade scenarios do not take into account vets being packaged in the deal of course. This is strictly draft picks for the #6 pick. Many of the scenarios are still fairly unrealistic as it require trade partners to give up the bulk of their picks. But hey, it's just to give an idea of the possibilities. It is not meant to imply that any of the trade partners would actually WANT the #6 pick, just what they would have to give up to get the #6 pick. I ruled out the teams ahead of us in the draft as (I hope) the Skins are not planning to move up in the draft or the teams ahead of us aren't looking to pick up a second top 10 pick. That said, that rules out ARI, CLE, DET, OAK, TB. I also ruled out BAL, CHI, CIN, DAL, DEN, IND, KC, NYG, NO, PHI, SD, and SEA as they simply do not have enough draft picks (or enough in value) this year to warrant a trade. Essentially, they would have to give us all their 2007 picks and more picks in 2008 to come close to the 1600 points the Redskins #6 pick is worth. That said, here are the remaining teams that we could do a picks-for-picks deal with... ATLANTA Scenario #1 1st (10) - 1300 pts 3rd (75) - 245 pts 4th (117) - 60 pts 1605 points Scenario #2 1st (10) - 1300 pts 3rd (75) - 245 pts 1545 points 2008 3rd rounder BUFFALO Scenario #1 1st (12) - 1200 pts 2nd (43) - 470 pts 1670 points Scenario #2 1st (12) - 1200 pts 3rd (74) - 220 pts 1440 points 2008 2nd rounder CAROLINA Scenario #1 1st (14) - 1100 pts 2nd (45) - 450 pts 5th (145) - 33.5 pts 6th (176) - 22 pts 1605.5 points Scenario #2 1st (14) - 1100 pts 2nd (45) - 450 pts 1550 points 2008 3rd rounder GREEN BAY Scenario #1 1st (16) - 1000 pts 2nd (47) - 430 pts 3rd (78) - 200 pts 1630 points Scenario #2 1st (16) - 1000 pts 2nd (47) - 430 pts 4th (108) - 78 pts 1508 points 2008 3rd rounder HOUSTON Scenario #1 1st (8) - 1400 pts 3rd (73) - 225 pts 1625 points JACKSONVILLE Scenario #1 1st (17) - 950 pts 2nd (48) - 420 pts 3rd (79) - 195 pts 5th (140) - 36 pts 1601 points Scenario #2 1st (17) - 950 pts 2nd (48) - 420 pts 1370 points 2008 2nd rounder MIAMI Scenario #1 1st (9) - 1350 pts 3rd (40) - 235 pts 6th (79) - 26 pts 1611 points MINNESOTA Scenario #1 1st (7) - 1500 pts 4th (102) - 92 pts 7th (198) - 13.2 pts 1605.2 points NEW YORK JETS Scenario #1 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 2nd (59) - 310 pts 5th (154) - 30.8 pts 6th (162) - 27.6 pts 1618.4 points Scenario #2 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 2nd (59) - 310 pts 1560 points 2008 4th rounder Scenario #3 1st (25) - 720 pts 2nd (37) - 530 pts 3rd (89) - 145 pts 1395 points 2008 2nd rounder NEW ENGLAND Scenario #1 1st (24) - 740 pts 1st (28) - 660 pts 3rd (91) - 136 pts 4th (123) - 49 pts 6th (187) - 17.6 pts 1602.6 points Scenario #2 1st (24) - 740 pts 1st (28) - 660 pts 3rd (91) - 136 pts 1536 points 2008 3rd rounder Scenario #3 1st (24) - 740 pts 1st (28) - 660 pts 1400 points 2008 2nd rounder PITTSBURGH Scenario #1 1st (15) - 1050 pts 2nd (46) - 440 pts 3rd (77) - 205 pts 1695 points Scenario #2 1st (15) - 1050 pts 2nd (46) - 440 pts 4th (20) - 115 pts 5th (146) - 33 pts 6th (177) - 21.6 pts 1608.6 points Scenario #3 1st (15) - 1050 pts 2nd (46) - 440 pts 2008 3rd rounder SAN FRANCISCO Scenario #1 1st (11) - 1250 pts 3rd (76) - 210 pts 4th (100) - 100 pts 4th (120) - 54 pts 1614 points Scenario #2 1st (11) - 1250 pts 3rd (76) - 210 pts 1460 points 2008 2nd rounder ST. LOUIS Scenario #1 1st (13) - 1150 pts 2nd (52) - 380 pts 4th (113) - 68 pts 7th (206) - 10 pts 1608 points Scenario #2 1st (13) - 1150 pts 2nd (52) - 380 pts 5th (138) - 37 pts 5th (144) - 34 pts 1601 points Scenario #3 1st (13) - 1150 pts 2nd (52) - 380 pts 1530 points 2008 3rd rounder TENNESSEE Scenario #1 1st (19) - 875 pts 2nd (50) - 400 pts 3rd (80) - 190 pts 4th (111) - 72 pts 4th (124) - 48 pts 6th (191) - 16 pts 1601 points Scenario #2 1st (19) - 875 pts 2nd (50) - 400 pts 3rd (80) - 190 pts 1465 points 2008 2nd rounder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emor09 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 i like New England scenario 1 the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 As I read it the NE and Jacksonville trade scenarios I liked the best, I think. They all got mixed up in my head as I was drooling all over the place. Edited for translation from Spanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philal0102 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 it looks like spanish to me... i have no idea what you just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laxpunk2006 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 It looks like there are a couple of potential trade partners that would be looking for a RB should Adrian Peterson slip past the Browns. I think this is what we should be rooting for as Houston, New York (both actually), and Green Bay all could be looking for a RB. Buffalo could to should they move McGahee before the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praise_gibbs Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 it looks like spanish to me... i have no idea what you just said. :laugh: I have an idea.. It is just tough to understand when you are half asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 it looks like spanish to me... i have no idea what you just said. Sorry I said I was still drooling Keyboard is water logged. :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U C S D SkinsFan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Hey, awesome post... I also agree with Staylorfan021. New England scenario 1 would be amazing, but that would never happen. The Pats would not trade all that just to move up and get 1 player. They value their picks and draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tastes Like Chicken Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 It looks like there are a couple of potential trade partners that would be looking for a RB should Adrian Peterson slip past the Browns. I think this is what we should be rooting for as Houston, New York (both actually), and Green Bay all could be looking for a RB. Buffalo could to should they move McGahee before the draft. I like where GB sits, about halfway down the 1st round. High enough to get an impact player (Patrick Willis, MLB) or possibly Okoye, DT (if he slips). Plus we'd grab an extra pick or two. I don't see us trading with a division rival, thus I think NYG are out of the question.:gaintsuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fpickering Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I think that Houston scenario is very likely considering Quinn may be available at #6, there is a lot of rumbling that they will cut ties with Carr and thay are looking at Plummer as a stopgap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mass_SkinsFan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 i like New England scenario 1 the best You do realize that there's absolutely NOT A CHANCE IN HELL that the Patriots would ever consumate that deal, right? The Patriots horde draft picks like ravens horde shiney objects. They do not give them up without good reason and almost never to move UP in a draft. Especially in the first round where moving up means paying a player considerably more money. I feel certain that the "Perfect NFL player" could be there at #6 and there's no way on this earth that Bill Belichick and company would even pick up the phone, knowing it would take that sort of deal to get the #6 pick. That just isn't the way they do business in Foxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoyaSkins28 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 this is really well done, great job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorPickSix Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Great post, you put alot of effort into this. Fax this to the Skins FO and maybe they will consider trading down more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Day Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Just for the record, and thanks for the credit being given out but I didn't do the work I just posted FrankenMonkeys thread from CPND. I just thought it would be helpful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HEavyJumbo85 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 well done, at least we know what we're capable of getting with that pick. We'll just have to wait and hope that Calvin Johnson, Quinn, or Adrian Peterson fall to us so we can act on these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigyim Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I think if MaGahee gets moved & the Browns pass on Peterson, the BUF situation is the most likely to happen. That being said, it is still likely that we are keeping our pick. I will stille be hoping for Cal Johnson, Peterson or Quinn to slide to us, of course, so someone sitting at #10-15 will get hungry to trade up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins53 Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 The best trade down I think we can have is if Minn., Miami, and the Texans all want Quinn. We would be able to get one of DL men (Adams, Anderson, or Branch) and get some extra picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hauss Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 I think that Houston scenario is very likely considering Quinn may be available at #6, there is a lot of rumbling that they will cut ties with Carr and thay are looking at Plummer as a stopgap. If Quinn is available at #6, then he is available at #5 and the Cards make a trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyConway Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Wow good stuff. All the scenarios look unlikely but hey we can dream, can't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsWinItAll Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 It realy depends on how much we want to go down in the draft and who is available when we are drafting. So we will never really know what situation we are in until we are on the clock. Hopefully good management will plot out every possible situation by even including draft day player availability in their pre-determined calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoEd Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 How bout that Pittsburgh scenario? 1st #15, 2nd, 3rd. Doesn't get much better than that and it looks like we could still get a solid DL at 15 and maybe a decent corner with the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheREALJBird Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Lot of effort put into this....I don't know if teams would be willing to give up that many picks to move up though. We can always hope of course, maybe the thick headed FO will actually take advantage of the potential situations we may have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GIBBS LIVES Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 That Green Bay (scenerio # 1) looks pretty good to me. But I don't want to trade down. It's time we take some studs on that D-line like Branch or Anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hauss Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 That Green Bay (scenerio # 1) looks pretty good to me. But I don't want to trade down. It's time we take some studs on that D-line like Branch or Anderson I agree--we need to start adding difference makers on the D-line. Do you really want to trade down and have Cerrato try and find D-Line value when picking later in the first round? I would rather stay at #6 and get a playmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21Knock_U_Out Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 The Pittsburgh scenario looks sweet.....I cant wait to see what unfolds.No way would NE give up all those pics.I dont know if any team would, it would be mainy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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