actorguy1 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19504913/fpi-makes-predictions-2017-nfl-season Noticing a general pessimistic bunch of predictions from the media that goes against my feelings for the upcoming season. I am predicting 10-11 wins for this season and I have seen mostly 7-9 wins from the media and a last place finish. Am I looking through burgundy colored glasses or is the media drinking too much Haterade!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theTruthTeller Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 I think playing the AFC West and NFC West instead of the AFC North and NFC North is bringing down all NFC East teams by 1.5-2 games. That's half the schedule with only two easy games and 5 very tough games. All of the NFC East games should be competitive. It will be hard for anyone in the division to win more than 10 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, theTruthTeller said: I think playing the AFC West and NFC West instead of the AFC North and NFC North is bringing down all NFC East teams by 1.5-2 games. That's half the schedule with only two easy games and 5 very tough games. All of the NFC East games should be competitive. It will be hard for anyone in the division to win more than 10 games. They have the Cowboys at 6, Giants 11, Eagles 15. This isn't just about the NFC East its about a consensus that the Giants and Dallas are by a decent margin the two best teams in the NFC East and the Eagles have surpassed the Redskins. There are a few people that disagree but by and large the Redskins seem to be considered the bottom dwellers of the NFC east this year and judging by most current 2018 NFL mocks they will have a higher draft pick next year compared to this year. Personally I love it. It reminds me of 2015. You watch ESPN or the typical NFL pundit show and the Redskins aren't even in conversation to win the NFC East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saeth29 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Had we finished last season strong instead of laying three eggs against the Cardinals, Panthers, and Giants (all games with playoffs implications on the line), I'm sure we'd get more respect. Remember, we were 6-3-1 at one point last year. Finishing the season at 8-7-1 justifies what a lot of pundits said all along, that we weren't that good. Hopefully, this is the year that we make the jump to the next tier of teams, and become yearly playoff and division contenders. But, don't count on the media to buy in until we do it consecutively for a few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 I think the Eagles are getting too much love based on the above. I think we're a little underloved, but from a national perspective I buy it. Last year, the Redskins had a so-so year. We can claim to winning seasons, but 8-7-1 is about as meh as you can get. Combine that with the loss of two 1,000 yard receivers, the team's OC and DC not to mention GM, plus practically entirely new defense that has to figure out how to gel and a question mark at running back... and you can understand skepticism. It could all come together well. If Cousins is on point than the wrs should get up to speed pretty easily. Kelly's not exciting, but he's solid. Perrine has potential. The D has enough talent to make some noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theTruthTeller Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: They have the Cowboys at 6, Giants 11, Eagles 15. This isn't just about the NFC East its about a consensus that the Giants and Dallas are by a decent margin the two best teams in the NFC East and the Eagles have surpassed the Redskins. There are a few people that disagree but by and large the Redskins seem to be considered the bottom dwellers of the NFC east this year and judging by most current 2018 NFL mocks they will have a higher draft pick next year compared to this year.... I think you're putting too much emphasis on the ordinal ranking and not enough on the raw scores and projected wins. They have the Cowboys at 9.4 wins - that's a team that would have won 14 games last year if they didn't sit their starters in the final game. It's a huge drop for them. The Skins come in at 7.3 wins, which looking at the schedule is just about right. It's a tough, tough schedule - at least based on last year's results. The only teams I see above the Skins that I disagree with are Philly and NO, maybe the Chargers. Everyone else seems at least arguably as good or better than the Skins. The four teams directly below the Skins probably think they should be ranked higher. In any case, these things are just for fun, no one believes that they have any real merit. By the first week of the preseason, there will be enough injuries to turn all of these rankings upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theTruthTeller Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 If anyone wastes their money on being an ESPN Insider, you can look here and see how accurate they were last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, theTruthTeller said: It's a tough, tough schedule - at least based on last year's results. The only teams I see above the Skins that I disagree with are Philly and NO, maybe the Chargers. Everyone else seems at least arguably as good or better than the Skins. The four teams directly below the Skins probably think they should be ranked higher. In any case, these things are just for fun, no one believes that they have any real merit. By the first week of the preseason, there will be enough injuries to turn all of these rankings upside down. It's tough for me to give a positive spin for them ranking the Redskins being 22nd in the power rankings and dead last in the division. But my overall point is its consistent with most national pundits who don't even have the Redskins as part of the conversation when it comes to who will win the NFC East this season. I agree it doesn't have merit. And my other point is this season feels a lot like the beginning of 2015. I recall watching First Take early on that year where they were talking up Dallas and the Giants, some Philly and the Redskins were an afterthought until they had to talk about them when they simply wouldn't go away over the course of the season. And I recall Jay said all that negativity aimed at them was motivation. Zach Brown mentioned it himself in a recent interview saying no one is counting on them doing anything and they'd love to shock the world. But yeah the negativity is everywhere especially via ESPN. When asked which team got appreciably worst from last season 4 out of 5 of their analysts picked the Redskins. I was catching a First Take episode not long ago talking about the NFC East and Kellerman kicks in with something to the effect of the Redskins aren't even worth mentioning. Jumping to Fox, Sharpe was dismissive of the Redskins the other day as well and they constantly run shows about Dallas centered on whether the Giants can dethrone them -- the Skins not part of that dialogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreek1973 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 its typical ESPN rankings where the Redskins have never fared well. What is funny to me is no one from their analysts is giving us credit of the moves we have made on D while they harb on us for loosing DJax and Garcon, never mind the fact that they combined for 7 TDs last season. Sure they had over 1000 yards each but scoring production was horrid for the two combine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theTruthTeller Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: It's tough for me to give a positive spin for them ranking the Redskins being 22nd in the power rankings and dead last in the division. But my overall point is its consistent with most national pundits who don't even have the Redskins as part of the conversation when it comes to who will win the NFC East this season. I guess my point is that if you look at the projected wins - 9.4 for Dallas and 7.3 for Washington, it's really an insignificant difference. Just one head-to-head competition. Nothin' to get upset about. I still plan on watching the games to see what happens in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTskin Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 If I was a betting man, it'd be difficult for me to put my money down on the Skins finishing higher than the Cowboys and Giants. The Eagles however, being ranked 8 spots above us, is a joke. I believe the Giants will win the division. That D is top notch and they added another stud WR as well as a TE who's a receiving threat. Their OL is bad, but I think they will overcome it like they did last year. The Cowboys on the other hand lost A LOT, which somehow the media is completely disregarding. 5 or 6 defensive starters and 2 o-line. For a team that thrived on running the ball, eating up the clock, and keeping the D off balance with play action, there's a solid chance they take a step back this year. I could see the outsiders putting a negative spin on us losing McVay, Garcon, DJax, but I honestly believe we're in a better place. I don't see our offense missing a beat. But, the truth is that our defense is still a crapshoot. Its hard for me to believe we can be worse off this year with Swearinger and Cravens, but it seems that every year since the Reed Doughty days we've gone into the season expecting improvement out of our secondary. Our DL is improved because of the addition of Allen, but I don't see it being anywhere near a strength. And if what Keim writes is true and Compton somehow starts over Foster or Brown, then I'll most likely throw up in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 34 minutes ago, theTruthTeller said: I guess my point is that if you look at the projected wins - 9.4 for Dallas and 7.3 for Washington, it's really an insignificant difference. Just one head-to-head competition. Nothin' to get upset about. I still plan on watching the games to see what happens in reality. That's cool. I just came out of that article with a different impression. To me its another in a series of articles that discount the team versus hey this one isn't that bad. I didn't say I was upset, I said I liked it and explained way. You were zeroing in on division wins as a good sign since they don't have Dallas running away with the division but they play out most of the divisions in a similar way. They only give 3 teams more than 9 wins. They also only gave 4 teams in the NFL more wins than the Cowboys. They are just conservative across the board when it comes to wins for division winners. Other than their philosophy of not giving division winners many wins. You got the typical disrespect about their chances among them in that article including: The Eagles are almost twice as likely to win the division as the Redskins The Giants are about twice as likely to win the division Dallas is 4 times more likely to win the division Redskins have little chance to make the playoffs even lowly teams from last year like the Chargers have a better shot They basically have a 1-10 shot to win the division and 1-10 shot to make it as a wildcard Only 3 teams in the NFC has less of a shot to make the playoffs IMO there is as much negativity on that Redskins in that article as anywhere else. Them putting the Redskins 22nd in their power rankings isn't IMO misleading but fits the rest of their narrative very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyst Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Similar topic pops up every off season. When you can count the number of playoff appearances on almost one hand in the last 25+ years, this will happen until we prove people wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
actorguy1 Posted June 1, 2017 Author Share Posted June 1, 2017 Yes, overall they were mediocre last season, but most predictions play it safe and predict the same for this season but from what I have read most say regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 They're wrong as always. I just looked at the schedule and see no reason not to go 19-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theTruthTeller Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said: ... You were zeroing in on division wins as a good sign since they don't have Dallas running away with the division but they play out most of the divisions in a similar way. They only give 3 teams more than 9 wins. They also only gave 4 teams in the NFL more wins than the Cowboys. They are just conservative across the board when it comes to wins for division winners. Other than their philosophy of not giving division winners many wins. You got the typical disrespect about their chances among them in that article including: The Eagles are almost twice as likely to win the division as the Redskins The Giants are about twice as likely to win the division Dallas is 4 times more likely to win the division Redskins have little chance to make the playoffs even lowly teams from last year like the Chargers have a better shot They basically have a 1-10 shot to win the division and 1-10 shot to make it as a wildcard Only 3 teams in the NFC has less of a shot to make the playoffs IMO there is as much negativity on that Redskins in that article as anywhere else. Them putting the Redskins 22nd in their power rankings isn't IMO misleading but fits the rest of their narrative very well. The FPI is a mixture of subjective and objective data points to make up teams. Then the teams play each other 10000 times. The stats on winning the division, playoffs, wl record are based on the simulated play, not (directly) by subjective prognostication. The FPI process is described here. One key point: "In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength. The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations; the expected win totals and money lines for each team are an accurate representation of predicted team strength and provide a strong baseline for teams entering the season." Here are the Las Vegas future odds. The LV odds appear to be what is driving the Skins ranking to 22nd. One thing that makes the final W/L records so tight is that the games are simulated 10000 times. That takes out the luck factor. But NFL games are full of luck - good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, theTruthTeller said: One thing that makes the final W/L records so tight is that the games are simulated 10000 times. That takes out the luck factor. But NFL games are full of luck - good and bad. Agree about your point relating to luck. Heck for that matter its difficult to foresee in advance which teams are the risers and fallers. And I agree predictions like this are meaningless as to the bottom line. I happened to recall both D. Hall and Jay talk in 2015 that people's low expectations for the team helped give them a little extra juice throughout the season. Hall put up these negative articles throughout the locker room, etc. Just saying that article is right up there with a bunch of others from this off season. If you drill deeper into that article (regardless of how they arrived to their conclusion) they have little respect for the Redskins chances of winning the division or even making the playoffs. Only 3 teams in the NFC have worst prospects to make the playoffs. So that's as harsh as anything else I've seen this off season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffmark1 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 We need a nt and decent coaching to get past 10 wins. if we dont let our corners travel with wr we are likely at 7-9. Without cousins i would guess 3-5 wins. Not a great team outside of cousins and maybe three other players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 1 hour ago, actorguy1 said: Yes, overall they were mediocre last season, but most predictions play it safe and predict the same for this season but from what I have read most say regression. Yeah I get the we are the Redskins we don't deserve the respect because of all the historic losing. But times change. As far as I recall they are the only team in the NFC East to have winning records two years in a row and arguably if their field goal kicker didn't hit a slump, they'd have made the playoffs two seasons in a row. Their horrific defense is being overhauled. And that all adds up to a regression. And the kicker to me is the team that they've beaten 5 times in a row (the Eagles) have almost twice the odds of winning the division over them and are 7 points higher in their power rankings. But again this isn't me complaining. I like all the doom and gloom predictions. I just disagree that its deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefanskins Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Let me tell you what Melba Toast is packin' right here, all right. We got taller faster wide receivers... new RB who's a double thumper, ILB who was a pro bowler...Drafted two Bama boys who are turbo-jet 390 horsepower. We're talkin' some ****ing muscle. ill gladly don my burgundy n gold glasses with you Mr. McConaughey....*cough* *cough* "ActorGuy1*.....HTTR!!! alright..alright...alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo'sRangers Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said: Not a great team outside of cousins and maybe three other players. So, out of curiosity, who are the "maybe" three other players? Off the top of my head, and feel free to disagree, Trent, Kerrigan, Brandon Scherff, Kirk (per you), Crowder, Zach Brown, Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor (yes, he is real damn good), Swearinger, Tress, yes, a punter. Even better? How many unknowns? Jonathan Allen, Ryan Anderson, Su's Cravens, Josh Doctson, Junior Galette, Kendall Fuller, Fabian Moreau, Samaje Perine, and on and on. I am not pessimistic, but see a hungry young team. We can agree to disagree here; I see something totally different. Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffmark1 Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Riggo'sRangers said: So, out of curiosity, who are the "maybe" three other players? Off the top of my head, and feel free to disagree, Trent, Kerrigan, Brandon Scherff, Kirk (per you), Crowder, Zach Brown, Josh Norman, Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor (yes, he is real damn good), Swearinger, Tress, yes, a punter. Even better? How many unknowns? Jonathan Allen, Ryan Anderson, Su's Cravens, Josh Doctson, Junior Galette, Kendall Fuller, Fabian Moreau, Samaje Perine, and on and on. I am not pessimistic, but see a hungry young team. We can agree to disagree here; I see something totally different. Hail How many wins are we without cousins? if you are one of the "not much of a drop off to our backups" guy i guess we both see something totally different. I like all the players you mentioned but great players (standouts amongst their non redskins nfl peers): Kirk, trent, norman, and reed (who is often injured and 1 dimensional but it is a good dimension.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo'sRangers Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Hell, I like Cousin, very much! A long term deal should have happened long ago honestly. You know what? We are more unknown than anything this year, don't you think? How will Pryor mesh with Kirk? What will Jonathan Allen & RA bring? Doctson? Junior? Perine? We have to be one of the hardest teams (hardest imho) to forecast this year, truly. My glass is always half full by nature/nurture....but I really don't know either. It's just my thoughts. I didn't mean to disparage Kirk, he was just the one you mentioned. Love him as well. HTTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffmark1 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Riggo'sRangers said: HTTR I agree with all of that as well. Could be a big year especially if o clicks and d is upgraded and is well coached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 Don't know if anyone remembers this, but last year after the Skins beat the Ravens, ESPN's power rankings had the Ravens going up one spot from 15 to 14, and had the Redskins drop something like 3 spots, from 21 to 24 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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