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The Fully Analyzed 2015 NFL Draft Position Thread *Thread cleared, Redskins pick 5th in 2015*

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SlinginSammy HOF '63

SlinginSammy HOF '63

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That Jags win cost them a few spots in the draft, good for us, but it kept the Giants in the mix.  Most everyone else got blown out.  We'll have to see how the Jets do Monday.

 I mentioned in another thread, this is going to be a bad year to go 4-12. Whoever goes 4-12 is going to be picking sixth or seventh. I think it's going to take 3-13 to slide into the top 5. If the season ended today we'd be picking sixth.

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Aireskoi

Aireskoi

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I don't really see us winning any more games at this point.

 

We'll probably lose to the Giants, so were OK there.

 

Jags, Jets, Bucs, or Titans need a win or were still 6th at best.  Raiders don't appear to be giving up the #1 pick.

 

Titans still play the Jets and Jags, so we can still move a couple spots depending on those games.

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SlinginSammy HOF '63

SlinginSammy HOF '63

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The problem is, I see a possible one more win in us (Sad I said possible win. This is where we are as a fan base and franchise). That probably puts us squarely at the sixth spot. We all know that offensive tackle isn't shiny enough for Snyder. He wants a Maserati, not a Ram 3500. Knowing Snyder, we'll throw out first  and round 2nd picks from this year and next to try to move up from four to the top spot for Marioti.  .

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Aireskoi

Aireskoi

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With us having beaten both the Titans and the Jags I think it will be very hard for us to be in the top 5.

 

So the Bucs and Jets winning would be best I guess.  Whoever wins when the Titans and Jags play will hopefully win one other game.

 

I think there are still 3 spots at play, as high as #3 is still realistic.

 

I don"t know which game I see us winning, I think we're safe there:

 

Sun, Dec 7 vs Rams 1:00 PM
Sun, Dec 14 @ Giants 1:00 PM
Sat, Dec 20 vs Eagles 4:30 PM
Sun, Dec 28 vs Cowboys 1:00 PM
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carex

carex

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The problem is, I see a possible one more win in us (Sad I said possible win. This is where we are as a fan base and franchise). That probably puts us squarely at the sixth spot. We all know that offensive tackle isn't shiny enough for Snyder. He wants a Maserati, not a Ram 3500. Knowing Snyder, we'll throw out first  and round 2nd picks from this year and next to try to move up from four to the top spot for Marioti.  .

 

 

He's picked Trent Williams.  He also picked Chris Samuels.

 

Since Snyder owned the team and we've had a first round pick we're taken the following:

 

3 LB(well one LB and two DE who were converted)

3 QB

2 OT

2 S

1 WR

1 CB

 

Two of the QBs were late round trade back into the first round when we got a new coach rather than the high "sexy" pick you're talking about.  I think the only times we traded up high in the first was moving up to get RG3 and Samuels. 

 

So the Bucs and Jets winning would be best I guess.  Whoever wins when the Titans and Jags play will hopefully win one other game.

 

I think there are still 3 spots at play, as high as #3 is still realistic.

 

I don"t know which game I see us winning, I think we're safe there:

 

Sun, Dec 7 vs Rams 1:00 PM
Sun, Dec 14 @ Giants 1:00 PM
Sat, Dec 20 vs Eagles 4:30 PM
Sun, Dec 28 vs Cowboys 1:00 PM

 

 

the Giants seem to be as bad as us and we've beaten the Cowboys once

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Forehead

Forehead

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With us having beaten both the Titans and the Jags I think it will be very hard for us to be in the top 5.

 

I go over this every year (unless I'm misreading your post) but head to head results mean nothing when determining draft order.  We'll be #5 if the Jets win tomorrow night.

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carex

carex

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So the Bucs and Jets winning would be best I guess.  Whoever wins when the Titans and Jags play will hopefully win one other game.

 

I think there are still 3 spots at play, as high as #3 is still realistic.

 

I don"t know which game I see us winning, I think we're safe there:

 

Sun, Dec 7 vs Rams 1:00 PM
Sun, Dec 14 @ Giants 1:00 PM
Sat, Dec 20 vs Eagles 4:30 PM
Sun, Dec 28 vs Cowboys 1:00 PM

 

 

the Titans play the Giants, Jags and the Jets so they could win two or even three

I go over this every year (unless I'm misreading your post) but head to head results mean nothing when determining draft order.  We'll be #5 if the Jets win tomorrow night.

 

 

if we all finish 3-13 don't they count?

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Aireskoi

Aireskoi

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He's picked Trent Williams.  He also picked Chris Samuels.

 

Since Snyder owned the team and we've had a first round pick we're taken the following:

 

3 LB(well one LB and two DE who were converted)

3 QB

2 OT

2 S

1 WR

1 CB

 

Two of the QBs were late round trade back into the first round when we got a new coach rather than the high "sexy" pick you're talking about.  I think the only times we traded up high in the first was moving up to get RG3 and Samuels. 

 

the Giants seem to be as bad as us and we've beaten the Cowboys once

 

I would be happy if we won either one of those games.  Screw the future at that point, especially if somehow the Cowboys need to beat us for the playoffs.  How sweet would that win be?

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Forehead

Forehead

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if we all finish 3-13 don't they count?

 

No, strength of schedule is the first tie breaker, then it goes to divisional and conference records.  That's why I have everyone's SOS in the OP, it's the most important thing to consider right now.  If we lose out, and other teams win at least three games, the only team that has an SOS advantage over us right now is Tampa, and Tennessee slightly.  Anyone else gets to three wins at the moment, and we'd jump over them.

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Forehead

Forehead

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Alright guys, we're fully updated.  We did not gain any draft position this week and are still in slot six.  However, there were several smaller victories this week that could work in our favor later.  One, the Jags beating the Giants realistically brought the #2 draft pick back into play.  Secondly, every 4 win team in the NFL won this week, meaning that we now have a two game buffer between the three win and five win teams.  There are no four win teams.  Meaning that if we stumble into winning a game, we won't drop more than two spots.  Our "floor" has effectively been lowered three-four spots, and our "ceiling" in draft slot terms rose a bit, though we ourselves did not move.

 

I've added the remaining schedules for each team to go along with the analysis, and I've added the Week 14 slate of games.  Our big ones this week are the Giants-Titans and the Jets-Vikings.  I also cut down the part of the OP showing older results, for brevity sake.

 

Lastly, I added a Dream scenario section which lays out a semi-realistic, not completely implausible path to the #1 overall pick.  Short answer, we'd need help, but it's just realistic enough that I'm not willing to shut the door on it yet.

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Forehead

Forehead

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Not as far as moving up.  But, the Panthers and Giants winning basically cemented them finishing behind us, so even though we didn't raise our ceiling, we're in no danger of our floor going any lower unless we shock the Eagles or Cowboys while they're playing for a division title.  We're pretty much guaranteed finishing no lower than 6th, and some of the teams ahead of us play each other.

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Rufus T Firefly

Rufus T Firefly

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Not as far as moving up.  But, the Panthers and Giants winning basically cemented them finishing behind us, so even though we didn't raise our ceiling, we're in no danger of our floor going any lower unless we shock the Eagles or Cowboys while they're playing for a division title.  We're pretty much guaranteed finishing no lower than 6th, and some of the teams ahead of us play each other.

Yeah, but it would have been nice to see a win that helped us move up. I've said for a while that if we lose out I think we move into the top 3. But this week didn't help us. The most "positive" thing is the Giants showing life, I guess.

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Mocountyskins

Mocountyskins

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I was looking at everyones schedules and as long as we lose out we are going to get to #4 at worst.

 

Jets play Titans next week. One team has to win both have 2 wins.

 

The week after that Ten plays Jax. Both have 2 wins right now

 

TB plays Carolina next week. If TB does not beat Carolina they will lose out. So that is the most important game imo.

 

Ideal Scenario is going to be Jets beat the Titans. Next week so we move up to 5

 

then Jax beats the Titans and we move up to #4

 

And TB beats Carolina that might put us at #3.

 

Idk I have to double check schedules 

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Forehead

Forehead

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I was looking at everyones schedules and as long as we lose out we are going to get to #4 at worst.

 

Jets play Titans next week. One team has to win both have 2 wins.

 

The week after that Ten plays Jax. Both have 2 wins right now

 

TB plays Carolina next week. If TB does not beat Carolina they will lose out. So that is the most important game imo.

 

Ideal Scenario is going to be Jets beat the Titans. Next week so we move up to 5

 

then Jax beats the Titans and we move up to #4

 

And TB beats Carolina that might put us at #3.

 

Idk I have to double check schedules 

 

It's all in the OP dude, including the schedules.  Go read the first post.  TB beating Carolina would not put us at #3 at the moment, they have a worse SOS.  They'd have to win twice unless their uncommon opponents start lighting things up.

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Mocountyskins

Mocountyskins

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It's all in the OP dude, including the schedules.  Go read the first post.  TB beating Carolina would not put us at #3 at the moment, they have a worse SOS.  They'd have to win twice unless their uncommon opponents start lighting things up.

 

Okay well still #4 is the worst case scenario I think if we lose out. Which is likely. I mean I don't see how we beat Phi or Dallas they will be home games for those teams with our tickets being $5. And the Giants I mean our D is going to get slaughtered. Imo it is crucial that we get a top 3 pick because that guarantees that Williams, Mariota or Jameis will be on the board which gives us the best chance of being able to trade for a 1st round pick in next years draft since imo this draft class is really week at the postitions we need the most. 1 safety worthy of a top 10 pick, 2 O lineman, 0 DBs, and 2 QBs who I'm sure only 1 will pan out and the other will be a bust

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