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Why 7-9 to 9-7 is ridiculous. Official prediction.


Art

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Sorry, can't sip the Kool Aid on this one.

The Russian novel kicking off this thread was simply unreadable.

Gibbs excitement is real but is more deeply rooted in the fan base than the players.

The players will benefit this year from:

(1) great coaching - that will keep them in games and give them the opportunity to win games, and

(2) the 12th man providing a larger home field advantage.

The constant shuffling in the coaching staff and locker room over the past 5 years coupled with the weak schedule requires 7-9 to 9-7 expectations.

That is a 2 to 4 game improvement expectation which is high but fair.

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Originally posted by DUSTINMFOX

Do you know where you can buy a cowbell? Seriously?

Cow Bells R Us... where else :rolleyes:

anywhere you can get farm supplies, I am sure you can find places online, heck even eBay. :)

Tell Red Bubba sent ya :D

http://www.redhillgeneralstore.com/cowbell.htm

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Originally posted by joeymag

Sorry, can't sip the Kool Aid on this one.

The Russian novel kicking off this thread was simply unreadable.

Gibbs excitement is real but is more deeply rooted in the fan base than the players.

The players will benefit this year from:

(1) great coaching - that will keep them in games and give them the opportunity to win games, and

(2) the 12th man providing a larger home field advantage.

The constant shuffling in the coaching staff and locker room over the past 5 years coupled with the weak schedule requires 7-9 to 9-7 expectations.

That is a 2 to 4 game improvement expectation which is high but fair.

Joey,

You're right, the Gibbs excitement is real, but is more deeply rooted in the fan base than the players. That's precisely the point. The fan base will convey that excitement to the players in a way that may bring about a level of play by the players we've not really experienced in a while.

As you've said in echoing what I said, we will benefit from great coaching and a 12th man providing a larger advantage than we've had in a decade. It may be that the shuffling of staff and roster is the overriding factor in how we ultimately finish. My guess, though, is if the excitement of the fan base does move the players, it will be that early emotion that will ultimately win out.

Just a guess though.

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Art

I'm with you on much of what you say. But I think you leave one important difference out between us and last year's Cowboys - the schedule.

Now, I know we don't technically know yet what kind of schedule we will play this year but it does look considerably more difficult than last season's was for the Boys.

Think of how many cake games the Cowboys had. They completely lucked out inside of the division - playing clueless teams like us and the Giants 4 of 6. They got Atlanta and NYJ without their star QBs. Detroit and Arizona - a few more patsies. I mean they had 2 quality wins - Carolina and Philly - both in Dallas. And even the Philly win was when they were overcome with injuries and at the depths of their tailspin.

If we get that same type of schedule and breaks, then even without the chemistry and cohesion - we should win 10-12 games. In fact, I bet HeHateMe $100 to back it up.

Dirk

PS - Artificial noismakers like cowbells or horns are illegal in the NFL and in most college stadiums.

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I didnt think I was being unrealistic before when I guessed that this would be at least a 10-6 season. The first few games are important but the team will do well because they believe in what Gibbs is doing and want to finally win.

This team has much more talent than the 81 Gibbs team (also the NFL is a parity league now Dallas/Philly arent as strong as the 81 teams) and even that team finished 8-8 after a 0-5 start and Gibbs was an unknown then, no SB rings, no crazed fans. That team was in a division that was just as strong as this one, the Eagles had just come off of a SB losing season and the Cowboys were a very strong team. The Giants finished 9-7 that year as well. The 81 team didnt have the talent that this one has or the massive amount of winning coaching experience. The 81 team started the year losing to all 4 divisional rivals and then later in the year beat all 4 divisional rivals proving how good a coach Gibbs was.

Losing the first 5 games this year won't happen. I predict 3-1 in the first 4 games and if we get lucky like Dallas did last year in a few games 12-4 or 13-3 isnt impossible with Gibbs coaching but it all rides on the first few games and whether or not there are many injuries. Gibbs Redskins teams always did better than the self proclaimed experts predicted and this year should be no different. Gibbs won 3 SB's with much less talent than the 49ers/Giants/Cowboys/Bears and even Raiders/Dolphins/Broncos had at the time and less talent than the Patriots and many other current teams have right now. The difference is that this year there are no teams with Montana/Rice/Taylor/Craig/Lott talent and I believe that the Redskins could be right there with the best teams in the league talentwise. Getting to know the system might take some time but there is enough talent and a pretty good early schedule. 10-6 minumum, 13-3 isnt out of the question if everything goes well.

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Great Post Art, well said.

Here's where my question would be... Last year, Parcells had a magical seson, everything went his way and he took a sorry team to the playoffs. If that had not happened, I don't think the "failure" attitude would have set in about last year's team as early as it did.

What happens this year if another coach pulls off the same type of season that Parcells did last year... Will the fans give Gibbs a pass if the Skins struggle early or will the "new, less patient" fans turn sour?

I asked that a while back, I'm patient, If the team struggles early, I have no problem with that. But many fans seem to be of the "what have you done for me lately" variety. I'm curious to see if Gibbs' history gives him the pass as he deserves or if the fans (in general) turn ignorant.

Hopefully, we will win early and this won't be an issue.

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NICE post, Art. I have been right with you on the "slow start" opinion all the way. I am also fading fast on that thought. The game against the "Falcones" is probably drugging me into a false bliss, but I cannot help it. We just looked too good that night and have stayed healthy since then.

I also thought all along that we would get better as the season goes on, but even if we do, it may not translate into late-season wins. With Philly, Dallas and Minnesota being 3 of our last 4 matchups it'll be a gauntlet of fire getting out of the season on an upnote.

At this point I actually have us starting REALLY well with a late fade, but the my prediction for season record has gone up. 10-6 is my call at this point, up from 8-8.

The Hopeless Homer in me is taking over. You are the most analytical mind on this board and you do keep proper perspective (almost) all the time, but are you sure you're not just feeling the euphoria, like me? :)

:point2sky

Hail to the Redskins!

PAICE. :peace1:

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I simply think we will be good because we have a better coach. Geez, with the Ball Coach and even Norv, we were in a lot of games, we just didn't know how to win them. That will change this year. Gibbs alone is worth two to three additional wins.

I believe his addition and his coaching acumen will turn a lot games we used to lose into wins If, for anything, his ability to adjust.

The Redskins have never been for lack of talent. We just have not been well coached. The best we were probably coached was in Marty's one year and perhaps Norv's playoff year.

Couching in the NFL is most critical. The level of talent is not that far off between teams. The difference is coaching and things out of your control such as injuries.

Now having said that, it is very tough to win in the NFL. Joe will have a learning curve. However, I think, he will get this team to play some of it's best football in years. I see us being very balanced.

I'm saying at least 10 - 6. Whereas Norv and the Ball Coach were more hype then substance, we know Gibbs is substance. And yes, this team will be better in November and Decemeber then it will be in Sept and October -- a classic Joe Gibbs coached team trait.

It's going to an exciting year. We will not be pushovers.

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I totally agree that this team will get better as the season goes along and I also agree that 11-5 is achievable if we get off to a good start. I'm just not 100% convinced we WILL get off to a fast start.

Art makes some very strong points that make me think a fast start is possible but, with so many guys playing together for the first time, I feel it's going to take a few weeks for them to feel totally comfortable with the system and with each other.

It will have very little to do with coaching and more with players playing with confidence in themselves, each other and the scheme. If we can eek out a game or two in the first three weeks, we'll be right there I thought we'd be. If we do better, I'll be the first to call Art a soothsayer.

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wellll....I think we have missed a critical part of the equation here: Joe Bugel. What has changed? zone/attacking defenses. what did the skins handle most poorly the last few seasons? pass blocking. this is the first real test - and something that will make or break us right out of the gate. if preseason stats are any measure - things are lookin good! the offensive performance will flow from how well this works. in an odd way 9even though the play mix won't refelct it) the excellence of the pass blocking will set up the run (i.e., if the feeling sets in that we can complete passes when needed, we can work around the ocassional run that doesn't gain much yardage).

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Loved the read, Art. Great work. I am guessing you do that offline first in Word or some such and than post, right?

I agree wholeheartedly with what you wrote but would add that there may be some logic to support better than 7 to 9 wins to go with that emotion.

In Gibbs first go around the Skins went 8-8 after starting 0-5. While there was not as much turn over in actual players that year, there was still considerable change. Especially on offense if memory serves. That was the first year for May, Grimm, Jacoby, Charlie Brown and Clint Didier. John Riggins was returning from a self imposed year off. On defense Manley and Grant were new. Not to mention the coaching staff.

The team changed systems and people. Sounds a lot like this year. There is one more big factor not taken into account though. Gibbs was a first year head coach who was used to being the coordinator, not The Man. Now he is comfortable as The Man rather than having to grow into that role. He will make adjustments faster. Things he waited weeks to change the first time will get changed in days or even hours this time.

Add to this the overall level of change that takes place in the league now that did not happen then. The teams that beat us in the first 5 weeks of 81 when Gibbs was new had been together longer than any we will face this year. I don't remember off had but I would guess that they all had the same coaching staff from the previous year (I am sure that if I am wrong someone here will point it out).

No, I think there is good logic to support the same conclusion your emotion has brought you to. I am with you on the emotion as well though. We, the proud and loyal, have suffered long enough and demand better.

I expect some tough games and I expect to lose some. And I am trying desperately to temper my growing enthusiasim and expectations. However, at this point both logic and emotion are telling me good things about this year.

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12-4....Not even a possibility.

Tempered enthusiasm goes out the window 3 days before kickoff in the annual "we will be great this year because _________ (enter rationalisation here)"

Good luck to you guys (except against the Eagles), but I have a feeling that you are setting yourself up for dissapointment again.

I mean, 12-4 may end up being the best record in the entire NFL at the end of the year- kinda ballsy.....

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Originally posted by f_dallas

12-4....Not even a possibility.

Tempered enthusiasm goes out the window 3 days before kickoff in the annual "we will be great this year because _________ (enter rationalisation here)"

An Eagles fan could not even begin to understand how Gibbs' return changes everything. :stop:

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personally, i'd be shocked with anything over 10 wins, excited by 10 win, happy with 8 or 9, and anxious to see gibbs' second year with 7 or below. your assessment that we'll start slowly and get stronger is right, as is the possible influence of a bloodthirsty crowd in the first game.

that being said, trying to predict final records before the season starts is just p!ssing in the wind. there are too many variables to make accurate predictions. sure some of us may guess correctly, but probably not for the reasons behind our guesses.

to conclude... nice post art. thank god meaningful football is back.

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