Art Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Every year I spend the offseason measuring the moves the Redskins make. Adjusting my anticipation for the season based on knowledge of the staff, changes in personnel, schedule and the like coupled with moves around the league. Many of us go through this period of measurement. When the preseason concludes, I get to a point where I put all my thoughts into one massive core dump. To this point I have settled in nicely thinking the Redskins, reasonably and realistically, should expect a season ranging between seven wins and nine wins. I've previously expressed my belief that when 51 guys (only Brown and Barrow having played for Gibbs and Williams previously) are thrown together in unfamiliar systems, it's reasonable and realistic to expect some discomfort in the early going. Long have I believed when the holdover players (less than half the roster) are being deployed in RADICALLY different systems than run under Spurrier and Edwards, it will take time to assure they fit and for it to take root. A better team in November than September has been what I've believed we'd be. Nothing in the preseason has altered that belief. We will be a better team in November than September. What has begun to change in my mind, though, is what being a weaker team will mean in September. To me, losing games early in the year seemed likely as Gibbs learned his players and they learned him. Falling to 2-5 or 3-6 to start the year and head into midseason seemed about right. At that point things would begin to turn. A streak would happen. A couple of more games would be lost through the process. And next year we'd know what we have, why, and what to expect. Therefore, reasonably and realistically, a 7-9 to 9-7 seemed obvious. Grounded in football knowledge. Serious thinking based less on being a tremendously obnoxious fan of the Redskins, and simply applying years of acquired knowledge while alienating my wife six months a year through watching football. People point to what Dallas did last year as evidence there are exceptions to the rule of adjustment. But, Dallas is a poor example on many fronts. First, Dallas largely maintained the integrity of its roster. The wholesale changes we've made weren't made in Dallas. Personnel changes were there, obviously, swapping out better players like Noble and Hardy for lesser players like Blade and Singleton, while using Newman to stabilize a secondary in a dramatic improvement. But, in total, Parcells brought in a couple of his guys, added a couple of other guys and kept things largely the same. This, on a 10-33 team. Continuity of form, though not of substance. The Cowboys maintained Zimmer as their coordinator. And while his attack was highly different than any the Cowboys had run previously, the language was the same. The application was different, but, for the most part, the players knew what a play meant naturally by play call. They didn't have to interpret it piece by piece in their minds. The Redskins have major personnel changes. Incredible differences on both sides of the ball. Further, the language has changed. The team was speaking Spanish, now, it's speaking French, and has had six months to learn it. It's not fluent in the language of the defense or the offense. We will hear play call and players will have to think. Not react. That's why we will be better in November than we are in September. As players acquire the knowledge that allows them to play athletically within the scheme rather than processing the scheme and thinking through their play. There's another key difference as well between the example of the Cowboys under Parcells and what one should expect of this Redskins team under Gibbs. Parcells took the league by surprise running a very bad team differently. Aggressively. Hiding defect through shock treatment. A hyper aggressive defense supported by an effective intermediate-to deep-passing offense gave the Cowboys a break from the gate. Once teams started figuring them out, they came back to the pack, dialing back the defensive pressure, and finding the big play opportunities drying up. In essense, they were better in September than they were in November. The Redskins are a substantially better team from an individual standpoint than the Cowboys were last year. There are stars on the helmets there. There are actual stars here. Where they had an offense run by Carter, Hambrick and Galloway, the Redskins have Brunell, Portis and Coles to rely upon. Defensively the Cowboys had Williams and Glover, with strong support from Dat and a couple of aging, but still good guys like Coakley and Woodson, where the Redskins have Arrington, the promise of Taylor and Washington and the aggressive nature of scheme unseen in years. Once the Redskins find their footing, teams won't catch up. Teams won't scheme us in such a way that takes away what we can do. We have too much talent from a STAR level to see that happening as it happened with the Cowboys. The Redskins will finish strong. That is the premise by which this is all based. The Redskins will finish strong. The Redskins will be weaker to start than they are to finish. It's just that I no longer believe they will be weak enough to overcome the advantages inherent to Gibbs' return. Perhaps being a fan is winning out here. I think it is. I think I know how all of us feel about Gibbs. How our excitement now is so far above the excitement we've had in 12 years. How that WILL translate to a fury in the stands unseen in that time span. How that feeds a team. Disrupts the opposition. Ultimately creating belief. More than ANYTHING the Redskins need to believe. They can talk about buying into Gibbs and his system. They can even believe they do. But, losing early, as should be expected by the football brain in all of us, will feed into the "Here we go again," aspect of this team with these players. They've been through the offseason hype. A 1-3 start for this team will be more of a blow than it might be for a typical Gibbs team. We all saw the "Show me" aspect to comments made by many players in the offseason. Arrington and others essentially saying they aren't going to believe anything's different until they see it for themselves. They've now been through training camp. They see something has changed. But, they won't believe until they win. And they won't win until they aren't allowed to lose. For the first time in 12 years, as fans, we won't allow them to lose. We WILL win this game. We matter more than any of us realize after years of watching a struggling team. We cheer when appropriate. We try not to boo. We are generally constrained though because there's a feeling of dread that as accompanied Redskins football for 12 years. Even if we were to lose the opener against Tampa, the emotion and love for Gibbs and the joys he's provided us with previously, will not sap the crowd. There won't be dread at very many points of Gibbs' return. He can be 1-15 and we will never fully believe it's HIS fault. We'll always know he gives us a chance. And that will be in our bodies and voices at the game in such a way as to create such an atmosphere it will overwhelm this team that has never experienced anything like it. They will be awed. And they will be moved. Again, this is the fan part of me speaking, but, I anticipate an audience that is so rabidly into the game, it sends tremors through the television into our living rooms. The players will be looking into the stands, trying to figure out what's happening. They will see a crowd unleashed for the first time in a decade. Unfettered from worry, dread, Norvitis, or any of that. And it will feed similar play in them. Early. When they are their worst, they'll be their most emotionally high-pitched. They will have no choice. We believe. Once they really understand that, whatever hold-out worry they have about believing will be gone. While the logical side of me still thinks it's tough to believe we'll surpass 9 wins, the emotional side of me tells me, 9 wins is way too low. Not the emotional side of an adoring fan wanting desperately to boost his boys. But, the emotional side of a person cured of a terrible, lingering illness, who simply appreciates how today is different than yesterday, and how tomorrow is going to be alright, no matter what. People say, correctly, that Gibbs has been gone a long time and will have some adjustments to make. Those people need to realize the adjustments have already been made. When Gibbs left football, teams didn't run defenses as they do now. They run aggressive defenses. Attacking. Speed oriented. Zone blitzes. Complex layered coverages. Gibbs adjusted. He brought in THREE defensive coordinators from last year to run his defense. Everything he could ever see from anyone in the league he's seen in practice and in meetings and on the chalk board and while having dinner with these guys. He knew when he came back what he lacked. He lacked it for 12 hours before getting Williams on board. Gibbs will make mistakes he wouldn't have made before. But, there's no doubting he understands the differences in the game quite acutely given the experience he's surrounded himself with. The first game of the season will be won on emotion, not logic. It won't turn on Gibbs' 12-year-absence, either from the negative of being away, or from the positive of the opposition not really knowing what's to come. It will hinge on a home crowd getting the team amped up like a pack of crazed dogs. On the road and logic would win out. At home, logic is pointless. In Gibbs' home opener, logic is meaningless. I think this team WINS that first game now where I have not always thought so. And that FIRST win, to me, feeds an odd scenario where we won't actually be all that good all that consistently to start the year, but, we will come through in better shape than logic would allow you to believe. When making predictions in this case, opportunity seems to design a different course. A win against Tampa leads into a game against the Giants. While the Giants have enough offensive personnel to hurt us, like us, they are going through massive changes in scheme, but, they may not be quite as pleased with Coughlin as our guys might be with Gibbs. The second game may still go either way, but, it's impossible not to think a victory is exceedingly plausible and more likely than not in this contest. Week 3 is where the worm turns for us. The same emotion of the opener will now be magnified on a national stage fueled by a crowd tipsy after hours of tailgating before a 9 p.m. kickoff. Gibbs teams do not always start off exceptionally well. They do not always do well on Monday Night Football. But, remember, these have long been veteran teams in the past. Guys who were still a little gassed from camp being a bit older. Guys who'd been in big games. Guys who'd won big games. Guys who didn't get jazzed up simply because it's Monday Night Football. Other teams would be amped while we wouldn't be and often the emotion the other team had would be a deciding factor. Gibbs' teams were businesslike. Professional. Collected. Not this team. This team is generally young. Many have been around to get pushed around by Dallas. It's a win in this third game that throws all logic out the window. A 2-1 or 3-0 Redskins team won't finish just 9-7. And, right now, I can't see the Redskins NOT starting off in this way. A strong start fueled by the emotion of the return. Followed by a level period of uneven play and mixed results, followed by a strong finish. A minimum record of 10-6 is now where I stand. In the end, though, it'll be 11-5, because that strong start will fuel the engine for the season. Now, I'm done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 I have to say, I loved reading that. I tend to agree with most of what you stated above. I also think that this will be a team much better in Nov/Dec than Sept. One thing I'd like to add to what you've mentioned is that I think scheme alone will mask some of our September faults. Players may not be very comfortable early on, but I think our staff will put them in such great positions to succeed that they'll be able to do so more often than not. 2-1 would be a great start and, I agree, if we get there, we'll finish the year with double-digit wins. Great post Art!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nighthawk Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 10-6. Just because... Sorry, I can't match Art in the writing department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Given that fact that most teams in the NFL are really 8-8 teams with luck on or against their side, I believe the better personel of the redskins have and Gibbs should be worth @ least 2 wins there. 10-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 If the players execute..... :jump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conrad87 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Great post Art! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 omg man you need a new hobby... sooo damn long... lol but i do agree with about the conclusion.... i am thinking 10-6 or 11-5 season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLusby Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Well done as always Art! You are definitely a writer who expresses himself with well thought out points of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bird_1972 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Art, Great read. Sorry I didn't go through it in detail after the 3rd paragraph, but skimmed the rest (work is busy this AM). I just wanted to add, and I'm not sure if this was addressed, that I wouldn't be surprised if Gibbs is more conservative in his play calling the first few games. I know we've had 5 preseason games to get used to the playbook but let's face it, we almost never had the starters in more than 2 series each game. I can see Gibbs keeping it on the ground primarily and keeping the passing plays simple until he gains more confidence in the starters and feels more comfortable being back in "the mix". Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted September 9, 2004 Author Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by bird_1972 Art, Great read. Sorry I didn't go through it in detail after the 3rd paragraph, but skimmed the rest (work is busy this AM). I just wanted to add, and I'm not sure if this was addressed, that I wouldn't be surprised if Gibbs is more conservative in his play calling the first few games. I know we've had 5 preseason games to get used to the playbook but let's face it, we almost never had the starters in more than 2 series each game. I can see Gibbs keeping it on the ground primarily and keeping the passing plays simple until he gains more confidence in the starters and feels more comfortable being back in "the mix". Any thoughts? I think Gibbs won't be conservative with his playcalling so much as he'll set certain things up that won't come to fruition until several weeks later. I think Gibbs will want to enjoy TWO surprises on his fellow coaches out there. One, to open the season when guys don't really know what he's up to. Then, in four or five weeks, when there's coaching tape, maybe change things up going back to the more traditional Gibbs stuff to catch people off guard. I think he will be limited by how his players execute what he calls and if he goes overly complex on them and they keep screwing it up, he'll have to dial it back. Otherwise, I think he's planning on letting it go as loose as he otherwise would right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21dave Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by Art And they won't win until they aren't allowed to lose. That was the best part. Great post Art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big z Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 hell....i pick 10-6 every year, cuz that's usually the minimum required to make the post season...... one time in the last 11 years...... Thank God for Joe Gibbs....I feel confident this year....11 wins would be gravy.....hopefully a division title.... dreams do come true.....Hail Skins! :helmet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyRules Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Great post Art. I normally don't read long posts all the way through, but you were extremely interesting. While agreeing with your assesment, I really enjoyed your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbear Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 8-8 or 9-7, and that'll be impressive despite the high predicitions on this board. Sorry, I just can't get past the intellectual part. Gibbs is great, but how many coaches turn a franchise around in a year? Parcells did it once so now Gibbs should be able to? Sorry, I htink the part early in your peace about continuity of roster does play a part and not a small one. We have neither continuity of roster or coaching. It's a mark of my great respect/memories of Gibbs that my expectations are so high. I think the biggest problem with those saying our tallent level will allow us to do better than the Cowboys did last year is that there isn't enough appreciation for how good the "no name" tallent is in comparrison with name tallent. Give me an NFL average player who knows the system over a star learning a new system. I just think back to the COlts OL from a few years ago when they gave up only a handful of sacks for the year. It wasn't because they were emensly tallented (as we found out when we got their center). They had just played together with the same blocking scemes for a few years. Continuity of personnel and scheme is a huge factor in the success of a franchise. Honestly, I think that's where the Eagles as a franchise have done a really good job over the past 5 years. This is the first one in a few years where I've noticed more change at critical positions. Year after year, we and everybody else would run comparissons based on tallent and find them lacking. They played like a team that had been playing together for a while and they consistantly won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlskinsfan Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 great post art but i see our schedule as lining up to favor a 10-6 to 11-5 record, we have a lot of young teams we are playing this year with some inexpereince at qb, plus the fact that gibbs will have this team ready for anything with gameplanning and half-time adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helluvaskinsfan Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 if parcells can turn a 5-11 team into 10-6 wild card team,i beleive gibbs is good enough to do the same or better,not to mention,we already have better players i don't think i'm being unrealistic,if ever we will be good again,this has to be the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ax Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by bird_1972 Art, Great read. Sorry I didn't go through it in detail after the 3rd paragraph, but skimmed the rest (work is busy this AM). I just wanted to add, and I'm not sure if this was addressed, that I wouldn't be surprised if Gibbs is more conservative in his play calling the first few games. I know we've had 5 preseason games to get used to the playbook but let's face it, we almost never had the starters in more than 2 series each game. I can see Gibbs keeping it on the ground primarily and keeping the passing plays simple until he gains more confidence in the starters and feels more comfortable being back in "the mix". Any thoughts? What I remember about Gibbs is this, he is not afraid to try anything against anybody. To use a boxing metaphor, kill the body, the head will die. Joe will work the body, with plays that look more complex than they really are. (countless formations to run the same play)Running, with short to medium high percentage passing. But, if sees an opening, he will throw the haymaker. And, if he staggers you, he's one of the best closers in the business. Don't let his calm demeanor fool you. If he is confident in his players, the man is a ruthless offensive coach. I'm on record for 11-5 I also have Mark Brunell leading his new team back to the city he left, site of this years Super Bowl, and winning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art Posted September 9, 2004 Author Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by gbear 8-8 or 9-7, and that'll be impressive despite the high predicitions on this board. Sorry, I just can't get past the intellectual part. Gibbs is great, but how many coaches turn a franchise around in a year? Parcells did it once so now Gibbs should be able to? Sorry, I htink the part early in your peace about continuity of roster does play a part and not a small one. We have neither continuity of roster or coaching. It's a mark of my great respect/memories of Gibbs that my expectations are so high. I think the biggest problem with those saying our tallent level will allow us to do better than the Cowboys did last year is that there isn't enough appreciation for how good the "no name" tallent is in comparrison with name tallent. Give me an NFL average player who knows the system over a star learning a new system. I just think back to the COlts OL from a few years ago when they gave up only a handful of sacks for the year. It wasn't because they were emensly tallented (as we found out when we got their center). They had just played together with the same blocking scemes for a few years. Continuity of personnel and scheme is a huge factor in the success of a franchise. Honestly, I think that's where the Eagles as a franchise have done a really good job over the past 5 years. This is the first one in a few years where I've noticed more change at critical positions. Year after year, we and everybody else would run comparissons based on tallent and find them lacking. They played like a team that had been playing together for a while and they consistantly won. Gbear, I actually think I explained why using Parcells and Dallas is not a reason to latch onto as to why Gibbs might experience success this year. I hoped to convey that my belief in that success stemmed, really, from two thoughts. First, we'll be strong later in the year than earlier. Second, that early in the year we might win games on emotion we normally might expect to lose in a typical regime change year like this. But, franchise turnarounds, even dramatic ones, aren't exactly unheard of. Bobby Ross took a 4-12 Charger team before he got there to 11-5 his first season. Cowher's first Steeler team was 11-5 after 7-9 the year before with Noll. Ray Rhodes was 10-6 in Philly one year after 7-9 when he started there. Jim Fassel took over a 6-10 team in his first head coaching job with the Giants and managed 10-5-1 while taking the first NFC East team in history to not lose a division game. Jim Haslett was 10-6 with New Orleans in his first year after 3-13. Tony Dungy was 10-6 in Indy after 6-10. Wade Phillips took Buffalo to 10-6 after a 6-10 season. The circumstances of any of these substantial turnarounds may differ from our own. But, if we were inclined, we could make a logical assessment that history does not preclude dramatic turnarounds such as these. I don't envision this being why we might be a team capable of such. I really think it boils down to a favorable early schedule and the intense emotion of Gibbs simply being there that will be the biggest reasons. I see your point though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mania Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 True in most cases, however this season we will be playing several teams with rookie or 2nd year QB's. This is why I feel we will have 9 or 10 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by Art Perhaps being a fan is winning out here. I think it is. I think I know how all of us feel about Gibbs. How our excitement now is so far above the excitement we've had in 12 years. How that WILL translate to a fury in the stands unseen in that time span. How that feeds a team. Disrupts the opposition. Ultimately creating belief. ....... And they won't win until they aren't allowed to lose. For the first time in 12 years, as fans, we won't allow them to lose. We WILL win this game. We matter more than any of us realize after years of watching a struggling team. We cheer when appropriate. We try not to boo. We are generally constrained though because there's a feeling of dread that as accompanied Redskins football for 12 years. Even if we were to lose the opener against Tampa, the emotion and love for Gibbs and the joys he's provided us with previously, will not sap the crowd. There won't be dread at very many points of Gibbs' return. He can be 1-15 and we will never fully believe it's HIS fault. We'll always know he gives us a chance. And that will be in our bodies and voices at the game in such a way as to create such an atmosphere it will overwhelm this team that has never experienced anything like it. They will be awed. And they will be moved. Again, this is the fan part of me speaking, but, I anticipate an audience that is so rabidly into the game, it sends tremors through the television into our living rooms. The players will be looking into the stands, trying to figure out what's happening. They will see a crowd unleashed for the first time in a decade. Unfettered from worry, dread, Norvitis, or any of that. And it will feed similar play in them. Early. When they are their worst, they'll be their most emotionally high-pitched. They will have no choice. We believe. Once they really understand that, whatever hold-out worry they have about believing will be gone. . This is good Redskins writing.... I'm not sure we can fathom the level of excitement that will occur Sun. afternoon. The Skins put an ad in the front section of the Post today asking fans to be there at Noon and to give Gibbs' the welcome he deserves. I've had a lot of intereaction with fans the last couple of days and they're all saying they're going in early. Now I'm not expecting a 82/83 NFC Championship crowd, but something close to it. I encourage all who are going on Sunday to help get people off of their ass and in their seats at noon. When your walking in, encourage those on your way to do the same. When the stadium fills up early, it lets the players know we're behind them. Scream your head off on every down, not just third down.....I will do my part...make your friends and family do theirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louie 14 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 To me the clue is the 1rst game. A win will mean from 9 to 12 Ws, while a lost probably much less. The reason is the confidence factor that it will generate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Synergist Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Great Post, indeed 2-1 or 3-0 changes all expectations. I firmly believe that since we will be dedicated to the run with a breakout running back , this will allow us to stay in games that in the past we have been unable to compete in. Just having gibbs back and no more fun and gun makes me very happy that just perhaps, This year I can still think of playoffs when week 11 roles around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by DUSTINMFOX This is good Redskins writing.... I'm not sure we can fathom the level of excitement that will occur Sun. afternoon. The Skins put an ad in the front section of the Post today asking fans to be there at Noon and to give Gibbs' the welcome he deserves. I've had a lot of intereaction with fans the last couple of days and they're all saying they're going in early. Now I'm not expecting a 82/83 NFC Championship crowd, but something close to it. I encourage all who are going on Sunday to help get people off of their ass and in their seats at noon. When your walking in, encourage those on your way to do the same. When the stadium fills up early, it lets the players know we're behind them. Scream your head off on every down, not just third down.....I will do my part...make your friends and family do theirs bullhorns, cow bells, and war drums are optional... but fans are encouraged to bring them. :coach: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadKarma Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Good read thanks. I was thinking 12-4 though... My soapbox is positioned on the front of the bandwagon again this year so bear with me : Three years ago Snyder and the front office committed to make the Redskins the poster child for the free agent era. It has caused a lot of animosity from the rest of the league as well as a lot of embarrassment for Redskin fans. This year all the humiliation ends. We have the best coaching staff in the history of professional sports and we are back to Redskin football after 10+ years of too much passing. :doh: The term smash mouth football is overused but this year we are back to NFC East football. We have the best RB in the NFC and an offense designed to wear teams down late into games. This approach dominated in the 80's and early 90's and it will return the same results in 2004. Its "put up" or "shut up" time in DC this year. Its time for Arrington and Samuels to start living up to the hype and make some plays. Its time to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball and then go deep for a 50 yard score when the enemy loads up on the line. We have a back who has the potential to be the Redskins RB best of all time. There is absolutely nothing that can stop us this year, the NFC is weak and is ours for the taking. Gibbs would not have come back if he did not know we could win and win right away. Joe may play it down, probably b/c he is a humble man, but we are now a team of destiny. This team will not lose in September because come game time 3 long days from now, every player on this team is going to finally feel what its like to be a Washington Redskin. They will realize how truly blessed they are to play for a franchise with this kind of fan base and following. All we ask is 1. Leave it all on the field. 2. Beat Dallas. 3. Make the playoffs. Hail to the Redskins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Originally posted by bubba9497 bullhorns, cow bells, and war drums are optional... but fans are encouraged to bring them. :coach: Do you know where you can buy a cowbell? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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