The Official 2024 NFL Draft Day Thread

[skinny21]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The talent available is not in the same "likely sure thing" zone as the best available guys. You reach for an OL here, you are reaching for a question mark. Everyone knew that there would be a huge OL run and it happened, nobody reached into round 1 the last 7 picks because the talent had already been peeled off. I suspect some teams will reach for OL in round 2, but there's not a lot of teams that are likely to do it at slot, the risk, if there is one, would be teams trading up, because most of the teams with big enough needs, already addressed it. Its just the Pats, Bears, Us and a few others, and if you're like me, you're just looking for the best available lineman, rather than position specific targets since OT got pillaged slot 5 through 29 w/Guyton. 

 

Play it smart, we need DB, WR, OT, G, TE, LB, we should be peeling off the best available talent at slot, and trading down if there are enough guys we like in a tier to justify the move. If the team is set on taking an OL in round 2, I'd suggest moving the 40 for a later 40 or early 50 slot pick and a late 3rd or day 3 pick (whatever is market value, I'm too lazy to look). Paul is probably the only OT worth 36th, and I don't see him good enough to justify passing on the DB and WR talent when there are another 2 or 3 guys I have around him in value at OT (as well as IOL guys). I really hope they trade down from 40 to recoup some round 4 capital in addition to whatever pick we get via moving in round 2. 

I’d add DE to your list.  I’d love to land one of these top ILBs, but I don’t love the value of taking one in the 2nd and having them sit until Wagner (and/or Davis) is gone next year.  Well, at least compared with taking one of the other spots that could contribute this year.  Now in the 3rd and beyond?  Sign me up

 

I think I’d be ok taking Paul or Suamataia at 36/40, but I’m also good with waiting on OT if guys like Dejean, Kool-aid and McConkey are on the board.

 

Edited April 26 by skinny21

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

AD Mitchell at 36. Dejean or Sua at 40. We are going to walk away with multiple starters tonight. The board is still stacked since 6 QB's went in round one. Add in reaches for Worthy, Pearsall and Legette and we are sitting pretty.

I am a Mitchell skeptic, Dejean at 36, Sua is one of my 3 fav OT's left, but I'd rather trade down for him then take him at 40 (if he lasts). I don't entirelly agree with the QB thing. Although betting markets were set at 4.5 it always looked like Penix was set to go top 15, and Nix was set to go 15-35, it didn't really change anything that 6 QB's went, they were always going between 1 and 35 anyway, before our pick. What's lucky, kind of, to me anyway, is that the guys that did fall into round 2, at least 4 or 5 of them fit right smack into our desperate DB-WR-OL-LB need cohort. I don't think any of the OL's are worth 36 or 40 for that matter, but the DB's, WR's and even LB talent could be, and we can trade down too. Having two top 8 picks in round 2 is huge just for potentially sweeping up late 1st talent AND for trading down to desperate teams. I hope we use 36 and move down with 40 unless someone crazy falls there.

 

Which of these round 2 targets came out with medical flags? I can't remember. Med flags and off the field alarm bells tend to drop guys like nothing else. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think we're in the part of our team building phase where we want to take on a contract like Aiyuk's. We're better off drafting someone younger and cheaper. Plenty of good WR options at 36 and/or 40.

 

This is exactly the part of the roster building phase that you overpay for a star WR.  Your cheapest QB cap hit + your most fragile point in their career, where they need the help of stud receivers.  Contract #2 is when you let your expensive wide outs walk and you draft cheap ones to continuously cost control the position group.

[Captain Wiggles]

Commies have five picks this evening? 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

All this talk of Aiyuk trades well HOW ABOUT THIS:

 

 

(Please note I do not endorse this idea, I'm just trying to create conversation)

1000% yes, but I'd offer probably 67 or the 7something pick, I'm not giving them a 2nd rounder for a former 2nd rounder who has 1 year left on his rookie deal. But yeah, I'd absolutely try to get him. After a slow september, he turned around and produced a solid last 3 months of the season. Not Sam Laporta good, but still solid for a rookie (26-302-2 in the 10 games between October 9th and December 12th including a 5-75, 4-46, and 4-39 games). 

 

I like Mayer WAY WAY WAY more than any TE left in the draft, but he's got 3 years left on the deal, no way I'm offering a high 2 for him, they took him 35 last year, and cheap rookie deal value has already been slashed by 25%. Ftr he's on a 4 year 9.4 mill deal. 

[Going Commando]

DeJean is probably going to be pick #33 and Suamataia is probably going to be #34.  If the Cardinals go pure BPA at 35, the. It'll be Johnny Newton.

 

Corum and Beebe would be my BPAs, but no one has them as high as me.  I think Kool-Aid will be the clear consensus BPA candidate at 36.  Either him or Jackson Powers Johnson.  My favorite play is to take Kool-Aid or trade back.

[method man]

I just don’t get good vibes about Sua. Something about him screams underachiever

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I'll pass on Mayer. I was one of the few who couldnt stand him as a prospect last year. He is slow and struggles to get separation. 

4.70 40, 72nd percentile speed score. Kelce was 4.66 a decade ago, Mark Andrews is 4.67, Trey McBride is 4.61, Laporta 4.59, Pitts is a freak (low 4's), Kittle was 4.52 back when he was healthy, Dalton Kincaid was 4.68. He's definitely on the slow end of the field behind like literally every single top 10ish guy in the league, but he's also not outside the realm of the athleticism you need, as shown by the 72nd percentile speed score. With TE's the more athletic the better though in terms of hit rate and his burst and agility scores are sub 50th percentile, so athleticially, his profile is meh, you've got a point, I'm not in the cant stand him area, I like him, but he is a floor TE. Better than the guys in this class other than Bowers, but not great. Just solid plus guy (to me anyway). I can see your point, maybe my trade idea is a bit silly, how about dangling the late 3rd and a future 7th lol. 

[bearrock]

What is the likely cost of getting Aiyuk?  Depending on the cost, couldn't we get him and frontload his contract to use up whatever unused cap space we have after rookie contracts to make him more affordable starting in year 2 of the contract?  

[The Consigliere]

27 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

My impression is that STs just got more important… or at least will lead to a change in how it’s approached.  So it kinda feels like teams will be scrambling to add guys that fit the new rules.  But yeah, definite de-emphasis on the “classic” return man.

Thanks, admittedly I am largely "confused" at what the hell the rule changes mean, I just get the sense that they are trying to deemphasize collisions for player safety, and it would not surprise me if they got rid of it entirely except for field goals in the next decade. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Ladd mcconkey in the slot would be an absolute menace. Next cooper kupp

[Koolblue13]

We are not trading for BA. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

May have dodged some bullets, if this metric actually means anything

 

To me, the analytics guys are hubristic in thinking they can use out of context metrics to fully explain and understand players and the game, and avoid doing all of the work of watching film.

 

Those guys aren't all the same.  You don't know why some of them took forever to break out, but it could have absolutely no bearing on their NFL careers.  Or it could be that they are lazy and give no effort on plays where they aren't the initial read, and it will have a bearing. That's what you have to suss out via actual scouting.

[zCommander]

13 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Commies have five picks this evening? 

 

Go to my OP and see the graphic as to how many.  

Okay I will save you the trip. Yes.  

[The Consigliere]

16 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

This is exactly the part of the roster building phase that you overpay for a star WR.  Your cheapest QB cap hit + your most fragile point in their career, where they need the help of stud receivers.  Contract #2 is when you let your expensive wide outs walk and you draft cheap ones to continuously cost control the position group.

I'd rather have a WR on a cheap contract, cost controlled, there were WR's worth signing in FA w/o giving away picks. We didn't. I imagine we're gonna draft one (I hope), I do not want to throw away money AND picks, when we could have just thrown away money a month ago. Could've grabbed Mooney or overpaid for Davis and Ridley for instance, avoided that. I'd like to think they're going after cheap cost control, rather than spending too much AND tossing draft picks in the bonfire. We have more WR's left in round 2. We should take one. 

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We are not trading for BA. 

 

They better NOT be trading for Bruce Allen!!!!

[DiscoBob]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We are not trading for BA. 

 

Can't bail the 49ers out of that situation.  If we get in the 3rd round, and the 9ers wanna talk, fine.... but the value just isn't there when the team that gets him has to throw him tons of $$$.

 

There has been a shift in the league where rookie WRs are hitting early.  Don't be the sucker who gives up high draft picks, and a big contact for a vet WR (exclusions for a very small number of players - Chase, Jefferson, Lamb....)

[MartinC]

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

DeJean is probably going to be pick #33 and Suamataia is probably going to be #34.  If the Cardinals go pure BPA at 35, the. It'll be Johnny Newton.

 

Corum and Beebe would be my BPAs, but no one has them as high as me.  I think Kool-Aid will be the clear consensus BPA candidate at 36.  Either him or Jackson Powers Johnson.  My favorite play is to take Kool-Aid or trade back.

I think it will be Kool-Aid as well. I’d be happy with that pick. 
 

I would be OK with Beebe with our later 2nd. People will scream it’s a reach for need but will forget all about that when he is plug and play at or around Pro Bowl level for the next decade.

[seantaylor=god]

3 minutes ago, DiscoBob said:

 

Can't bail the 49ers out of that situation.  If we get in the 3rd round, and the 9ers wanna talk, fine.... but the value just isn't there when the team that gets him has to throw him tons of $$$.

 

There has been a shift in the league where rookie WRs are hitting early.  Don't be the sucker who gives up high draft picks, and a big contact for a vet WR (exclusions for a very small number of players - Chase, Jefferson, Lamb....)

Yeah the max I would trade back to SF is the SF comp pick in late 3rd. 

[MartinC]

13 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Go to my OP and see the graphic as to how many.  

Okay I will save you the trip. Yes.  

Today is a big day. This is were the GM and his staff earn their salaries. If things go well we are about to draft the core of our team for the next 5-7 years.

[Kalu44]

Listening you to guys, I'm rethinking my thoughts on taking OT in round 2. I think a guy like Paul might be there in the 3rd. Si, I'd rather go with 2 of the 4 (Ladd, Cooper, Kool-Aid, or even Ja'Taveon).

[The Consigliere]

18 minutes ago, bearrock said:

What is the likely cost of getting Aiyuk?  Depending on the cost, couldn't we get him and frontload his contract to use up whatever unused cap space we have after rookie contracts to make him more affordable starting in year 2 of the contract?  

Personally I have zero interest. We already have an overage WR', we are not gonna be good this year, probably not next either as we build this thing up from scratch, I imagine they are targeting second half of '25, and '26 for being a .500+ to playoff team, in '26 dude will be 28, like McLaurin was last year, outside of his prime. I am not terribly interested in paying for a guy's decline when we aren't even likely to be competitive for half or more of the contract, I like these moves when we are getting good, I'd make a move like this 2 years from now, but now? No. Just don't see it. If we could get him cheap, okay, but I doubt it, and there were and will be FA classes pumping out quality options going forward as the WR classes of '20, '21 and '22 were all solid to superb. No need to overpay in $$$ and draft capital when we can do it just with $$$, and do it when they aren't bad calorie seasons. For me, this kind of signing (would definitely not due a trade) makes sense in '25 or '26, not in '24. We already have two vets on the roster, get the kid who he'll grow with instead. Plus there's the rumor that they're trying to move Deebo instead. 

[Conn]

1 hour ago, CommandB11 said:

If he did that, i wouldnt be so upset about the pick. But he just doesnt do that. He checks his 1st read and then runs. He will be broken in half by the end of the 1st quarter of game 1.

So the night’s sleep I prescribed didn’t help, I see

[Redskins 2021]

Paul will be gone by pick 50

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[The Consigliere]

10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I think it will be Kool-Aid as well. I’d be happy with that pick. 
 

I would be OK with Beebe with our later 2nd. People will scream it’s a reach for need but will forget all about that when he is plug and play at or around Pro Bowl level for the next decade.

I bet the foot injury and other issues in his career w/health has teams skittish. Wonder if he's one of those classic injury related falls down the draft boards.