2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Jumbo]

All these words in QB posts. I get it. It's a new world now for us, and besides, QB evals/predictions are more challenging than ever imo.

 

The two factors I used to emphasize most in recent years (what I call the 2H quotient---Hair and Height) have been arguably invalidated by the aforementioned Lawrence and Herbert, the latter who I was/still am especially wowed by in skillet and potential ceiling.

 

☹️

[illone]

6 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I'd focus on his very surprising lack of production in the middle of the year, and maybe those final 2 games, long and hard if I was a GM. What's the consensus explanation?

 

 

I watched most of his games this year (and last for that matter) as I am a Pac-12 fan and follow things fairly closely.

 

USC did make an attempt to fix their defense this year by bringing in Alexander from UGA and paying him over $400K, but it became fairly evident early on that it wasnt enough. Those guys just didn't tackle and didnt communicate all year. 

 

This forced Caleb to play hero ball when the team got into a bunch of shootouts and it worked a few times vs teams like Arizona and Colorado, but didnt work vs the better Pac teams like Oregon and Washington. USC defense couldnt close a screen door in a hurricane no matter what they tried so I dont think GMs will demote CW because of his slightly worse year this year statistically compared to last year.

 

He still flashed in every game when you turn on the tape and I think the ONLY potential issues we dont know much about are attitude and work ethic. The combine interviews will be telling assuming he declares in the next few days.

[RandyHolt]

2 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

I watched most of his games this year (and last for that matter) as I am a Pac-12 fan and follow things fairly closely.

 

USC did make an attempt to fix their defense this year by bringing in Alexander from UGA and paying him over $400K, but it became fairly evident early on that it wasnt enough. Those guys just didn't tackle and didnt communicate all year. 

 

This forced Caleb to play hero ball when the team got into a bunch of shootouts and it worked a few times vs teams like Arizona and Colorado, but didnt work vs the better Pac teams like Oregon and Washington. USC defense couldnt close a screen door in a hurricane no matter what they tried so I dont think GMs will demote CW because of his slightly worse year this year statistically compared to last year.

 

He still flashed in every game when you turn on the tape and I think the ONLY potential issues we dont know much about are attitude and work ethic. The combine interviews will be telling assuming he declares in the next few days.

Thanks for sharing.

 

Do you have concerns at all about him presume being reigned in and forced to learn a timing based, more structured or complex offense?

 

It seems like that unknown, and his height are things that may concern a GM. I am not sure the wonderlic matters but am curious about his score.

Edited January 12 by RandyHolt

[illone]

6 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Thanks for sharing.

 

Do you have concerns at all about him presume being reigned in and forced to learn a timing based, more structured or complex offense?

 

 

 

I personally dont have ANY questions about his football IQ or really anything related to his on field performance. 

 

He has only played under one system in college, Lincoln Riley's version of the "Air Raid" that he learned under Mike Leach. It's a fairly simple offense conceptually with a few core plays and multiple formations, and plenty of NFL Qbs have come from that offense.  Mahomes, Kyler, Goff, and Geno Smith come to mind as other NFL guys that came from similar college offenses.

 

As long as he plays with a coach that is willing to deploy similar concepts he should be fine. But some of these NFL OCs are hard headed and wont fit their offense to the personnel so a lot will depend on that. 

 

My only concern with him is his attitude and off field distractions which are tough to grade at this point in the process. The rumor that he wants a percentage ownership of the team that drafts him is worrisome. When I first heard about that I instantly thought of Lonzo and Lavar Ball. So far just a rumor though. 

 

I'm always a little concerned when a player comes in with this many endorsement deals as it could pose a distraction, but thats really just nitpicking. If he signs up for Dancing With the Stars then I will officially be worried.

 

 

[SkinsFTW]

Well lets all look at the bright side.

 

If this team picks a QB in the first round, presumably #2 overall, and he's actually a decent starter in year 2 this would be the first such occurrence since 1937.

 

The 2 decades of the 70's and 80's and until 1992 were the only time this team was actually any good since 1945. They went to 5 SB's drafting NO QB's in the first.

 

In fact during their worse run in the 50's and 60's they drafted 4 QB's in the Top 4 of the draft between 1955-1961 and all of them turned out to be crap.

 

I think this run of suck has at least equaled that one so they have to be due. Lets all hope they get the teams best first round QB in almost a century. 

 

A decade ago KC Chief fans were saying things just like this then they landed Mahomes. 

 

 

 

 

[RandyHolt]

@illone anything to share with respect to his 1.4 yard per carry average?  That is less than Tom Brady's career average of 1.6

 

I was expecting to see at least 5... or something to get excited about. You'd think he was a pure pocket passer with those numbers. i do see some negative rush yards games. Thanks.

[Ghost of]

Randy

 

In college sacks count against rushing totals.

[illone]

59 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

@illone anything to share with respect to his 1.4 yard per carry average?  That is less than Tom Brady's career average of 1.6

 

I was expecting to see at least 5... or something to get excited about. You'd think he was a pure pocket passer with those numbers. i do see some negative rush yards games. Thanks.

 

Look for rushing yards without sacks.

 

Also, just take a look at his first game in school

 

 

[illone]

59 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Randy

 

In college sacks count against rushing totals.

 

 

Ghost! Whats up my dude.  We gotta fire up a good ole Qb debate like the Brunell vs Ramsey days.

 

🤠

[LetMeSeeYourWarFace21]

3 hours ago, illone said:

 

Look for rushing yards without sacks.

 

Also, just take a look at his first game in school

 

 

 

 

Wow, what a great game. Caleb was amazing in his debut.......

[SkinsFTW]

5 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

Ghost! Whats up my dude.  We gotta fire up a good ole Qb debate like the Brunell vs Ramsey days.

 

🤠

Everybody knows that Ramsey would have won that playoff game.

[FlyBigBeard]

3 hours ago, LetMeSeeYourWarFace21 said:

 

 

Wow, what a great game. Caleb was amazing in his debut.......

Was he? Lots of miscues with the snaps and probably 3 or 4 passes that would have been picked off in the NFL. Though I have to agree that was a hell of a game to watch. 

[Thinking Skins]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:35 PM, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

So one of the measurements I started using on Twitter to grade and distinguish QBs is what I'm calling the WOW moments in college. People were hyping Daniels and comparing his numbes to Burrow and I was quick to correct them and say, no Burrow set the college world on fire and had a lot more WOW moments passing the ball. And I was told to restrict it to Burrow's first 12 games because Daniels had only played 12 as well.

 

Burrow had 1-6, 3-5, 2-4, and 4-3 TD games. That's 10 games and 41 TDs, kinda big time. (4.1 TDS / game when he's on) (He also has 3 rushing TDs)

Daniels had 1-6, 1-5, 3-4, 4-3 TD games. Thats 35 TDs in 9 games, not on the same level as Burrow.  (3.8 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

 

Maye's two years are 

Maye22 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 3-3, TD games. That's 28 TDs in 7 games by Maye. (4 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs 3 games by Maye. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 9 rushing TDs)

 

Looking at Howell's last two years are not nearly that impressive. 

Howell20 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 22 TDs in 6 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Howell21 had 0-6, 1-5, 0-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games by Howell. (3.67 TDs / game when he's on) (He also has 10 rushing TDs)

 

And just for fun (kinda boring and shows why he was Mr. Irrelivent)

Purdy18 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 5 rushing TDs)

Purdy19 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 15 TDs in 4 games (3.75 / game when he's on) (He also has 8 rushing TDs)

Purdy20 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 9 TDs in 3 games. (3.00 / game when he's on) (He also has 4 rushing TDs)

Purdy21 had 0-6, 0-5, 1-4, 2-3 TD games. That's 10 TDs in 3 games. (3.33 / game when he's on) (He also has 1 rushing TDs)

 

So if I were going by just the draft reports I would probably take Howell behind these guys and not think twice about it. But now that we have Howell in the building and know things about his character and humility and the fact that he can lead an offense in the NFL and that he has the work ethic that matters and the durability so much more about him, that matters. I have questions about Daniels size.

 

But the wole Brock Purdy being an MVP and building around Sam Howell is an active debate on Twitter and its got people from Kurt Warner and Cam Newton to joe schmoes talking about who is worthy to be called a franchise QB. I think the draft process is too built around the player himself and not around the player fitting into the system. I think its great to get a player who can "make all the throws" and has the athleticism. but it doesn't mean didly if you don't have a LT and guys who can catch. and a defense who can hold the lead. 

So I was talking to my my dad this morning about the draft and the likely scenario of us taking Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. So we were talking about the analytic I did on WOW plays on certain QBs and I was thinking of this post. I had expanded on it to include Williams and Maye (not included above) and others. Somehow, either I didn't post it or I don't know what happened. 

 

Anyway here it is. 

Caleb Williams

Williams21 had 1-6, 0-5, 1-4. 2-3 TD games. That's 16 TDs in 4 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 6 rushing TDs)

Williams22 had 0-6, 3-5, 2-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 32 TDs in 8 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 10 rushing TDs)

Williams23 had 1-6, 1-5, 1-4, 3-3 TD games. That's 24 TDs in 6 games. (4.00 / game) (He also added 11 rushing TDs)

 

And here's Drake Maye

Maye22 had 0-6, 3-5, 1-4, 4-3 TD games. That's 29 TDs in 8 games (3.625 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Maye23 had 0-6, 0-5, 2-4, 1-3 TD games. That's 11 TDs in 3 games (3.667 / game) (He also added 9 rushing TDs)

 

Just for fun, here's Daniel Jones

Jones16 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 2-3 games. That's 6 TDs in 2 games (3.00 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Jones17 had 0-6, 0-5, 0-4, 0-3 games. That's 0 TDs in 0 games (0.00 / game) (He also added 7 rushing TDs)

Jones18 had 0-6, 1-5, 1-4, 3-3 games. That's 18 TDs in 5 games (3.60 / game) (He also added 3 rushing TDs)

 

 

This is a simple metric that I'm playing with that I like to see in terms of a QBs ability to take over a game. I'm not looking at film or any of the other things like yards after catch and that stuff. I'm just looking at does the QB do things that fill the stat sheet enough times make me go WOW. I will later add interceptions to this because its a factor, but in this first version I didn't want to because I wanted to see (like Speilman said Bout Caleb Williams against ND after a bad first half) they if could carry their teams back. 

 

This doesn't mean anything, but I think that Daniel Jones has such a putrid WOW factor and some other guys have some good ones. I'm trying to get some time to actually write the analytic to do this so I'm not spending so much time doing it by hand because I think it is a fun exercise.

 

Doing this was a fun exercise because because it made me feel better about Williams the player over Howell the player in college. That 6TD game number comparison and 5TD game number is significant. What is it? 2 6TD games for Williams to 1 for Williams, and 4 5 TD games for Williams to 1 for Howell? And it just continues. 6 4 TD games for Williams for Williams to 1 for Howell. Its not that Howell was bad, its just that Williams was really as Heisman trophy winner. I respect that. 

 

[Warhead36]

Its not about who is better right now or who was more productive in college. Its about who has game that can translate to the NFL and who has the upside to grow into a top 10 QB and to me that's Maye when you factor in his age(he'll only be 22 at the start of his rookie year, which is a huge advantage), his elite physical traits, his character/coach-ability, and his experience.

[Thinking Skins]

While I'm

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Its not about who is better right now or who was more productive in college. Its about who has game that can translate to the NFL and who has the upside to grow into a top 10 QB and to me that's Maye when you factor in his age(he'll only be 22 at the start of his rookie year, which is a huge advantage), his elite physical traits, his character/coach-ability, and his experience.

First, could you understand that? 

 

I was mainly writing to myself. I tried to make it more legible but I never have an audience for my math writings so I never know who understands these things. 

[philibusters]

35 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

So I was talking to my my dad this morning about the draft and the likely scenario of us taking Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

 

 

I think the likely scenario is us taking Drake Maye (most likely) or Jayden Daniels.  While not impossible for us to trade up, the Bears probably will not be willing to trade that first pick given how good of a prospect Caleb Williams is.

[Thinking Skins]

4 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I think the likely scenario is us taking Drake Maye (most likely) or Jayden Daniels.  While not impossible for us to trade up, the Bears probably will not be willing to trade that first pick given how good of a prospect Caleb Williams is.

That's possible too. I had already done Daniels. I think my draft picks favorites are

 

1. Trade

2. Williams

3. Daniels

4. Maye

 

But its becoming

 

1. Williams

2. Trade

3. Daniels

4. Maye

 

I'm not high on Daniels or Maye. 

[Warhead36]

14 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

While I'm

First, could you understand that? 

 

I was mainly writing to myself. I tried to make it more legible but I never have an audience for my math writings so I never know who understands these things. 

Maye's upside translates best to the NFL based on a combination of his traits, character, and experience.

[Thinking Skins]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Maye's upside translates best to the NFL based on a combination of his traits, character, and experience.

Upside and character and maturity are things I can't look at. I hope Caleb has those things. I haven't seen enough of anything other than numbers to judge anything on this stuff. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Upside and character and maturity are things I can't look at. I hope Caleb has those things. I haven't seen enough of anything other than numbers to judge anything on this stuff. 

I mean we've seen him cry after games and paint "F... UTAH" on his fingers. Doesn't scream maturity to me. Then there's the angle of his dad seemingly being very involved, and the fact that he's from D.C. could bring out some demons.

[Est.1974]

No chance we can be sat at pick #2 and stay medium. Too many years of that ****. Let’s make a statement.

[Thinking Skins]

How is that for a better understanding?

[ThatNFLChick]

Mel Kiper and Field Yates debate Maye vs Daniels. 

 

Mel has Maye above Daniels. Field has Daniels above Maye.

 

 

 

Edited January 12 by ThatNFLChick

[profusion]

It'd be interesting to know what Adam Peters thinks of the top 3 QBs. Or, perhaps more pertinently, what qualities he's looking for in a new QB.

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, profusion said:

It'd be interesting to know what Adam Peters thinks of the top 3 QBs. Or, perhaps more pertinently, what qualities he's looking for in a new QB.

That's what everybody's waiting for. But short of him trading down or trading for Fields, we're not going to hear anything until after the draft