2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Warhead36]

I'm against drafting TE high out of principle but I'm not gonna lie, Bowers would be tempting, and would fit the bill of the dynamic blue chip game changing type player that we need. Kid could be the best TE in the league by 2025.

[The Consigliere]

29 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The Ts are good but I don't think any of them are slam dunk studs in that Ogden/Pace category. Alt projects to be more of a RT which I don't mind(could be our Lane Johnson)but the value isn't as high then.

And do recall the notorious top of the '13 draft, with Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel. Those were outlier misses, usually things go far better (though not always), but good lord, for back to back OT's to top the draft, and for neither to become ALL Pro talents or close to it was brutal and crazy, and they weren't the only exceptionally high OT prospects to bust that decade, or underperform against expectations. I definitely like Fashanu, I'm alarmed at the high floor nature of Alt write ups. You should not be picking a high floor guy after a 5-12 or 6-11 season, aim for high floor in free agency, and day 3 OL prospects, not top 10 picks (we'll probably take him anyway. I just hope he's better than some seem to think. Gives me nightmares of how I kinda liked that Seattle OL better than Trent Williams a decade plus ago and how he became a joe average OT in his career. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

There aren't any 100% studs at LT, but there is at WR and TE. This draft is absolutely loaded with OTs.

 

Drafting need based is about to get GM RonMart fired. It's not over thinking it, it's not thinking at all.

 

I am right now open to anything.  Trade down.  Take a tackle.  Take Harrison if they land at #3 but assuming they won't pick #3.  And Bowers.  My only argument is with anyone (not you) who says there is a clear right way to do this.

 

I am a little higher it seems on Fashanu and Alt than some on the draft thread.  While I agree neither is Joe Thomas both potentially are super good.  

 

Fashanu -- his freakish talent is easy to see.  Wicked fast first step which helps against some of the speed rushers in this division.   His legs-anchoring ability seem freakish.  I get why he ended up on Feldman's freak list for his agility.  He sometime loses leverage with his hands, his hands can be sloppy, yet he can hold up to bull rushers, etc because he anchors so well because of the strength and bend of his legs.  And he recovers so fast when he loses leverage initially.    He's just OK right now IMO in the run game. 

 

Alt --he might have like 36 arms.  His length is insane.   He doesn't get beat.  I wish he had more upper body strength.  He mirrors very well.  And for a 6 '8 dude he sinks his hips really well.  He's good with some nasty in the run game.  High floor prospect IMO.  He reminds me on some front of Chris Samuel.    He doesn't wow you with killer plays but he's so steady and consistent and that's what you want from your LT.

 

Both players also with special intangibles-smarts and work ethic from what I read.  So overall I wouldn't hate them taking either dude.

 

But conversely, I love Fauga and like Guyton and haven't watched the others yet.  So I can see a trade down. 

 

Harrison Jr, is a no brainer pick on the off chance they could take him.  As you know, I love TEs.  And Bowers look special.  I do value a LT over a TE.  But Bowers as a TE is more special IMO than Fashanu or Alt. 

 

And also lets not forget as Standig just ironically mentioned on 980 and Cooley harps on from time to time -- there is a value for a team lacking elite players to take a potential elite player.

 

I know some say we don't know if they are elite.  But look especially in the top 5, dudes who look elite in college have a very good chance to be special in the NFL.   Just because there isn't a perfect way to pick players doesn't mean we just disregard the scouts rating of said players if for example their scouts believe Bowers is elite.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Then trade down and get more then one OT if it's that deep.

 

RonMart is getting fired at minimum because he completely neglected the oline, not because he drafted for need for that position group.

 

These talking points for BPA vs Need do not change how big a need overhauling the oline is.  That includes starters and depth for the injuries we seem to incur every year. 

I hope we double dip OT and draft one of Powers or Van Pran. We need depth players on the OL too, that OL room is empty, Strom, Cosmi, that's it.

 

The BPA vs Need argument is annoying. They're both important in varying ways and at varying times.

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think my opinion is clouded because I don't trust any of the evaluations, because the bust rate at every pick is so high. When you say "best player available" it's based on somebody's evaluation.  That somebody, even the best somebodies, are wrong more than they are right.  

 

So, yeah, you don't want to draft for need.  But you also have needs.  What you need to be able to do is fill the needs in some way, or they will persist, and you will also get fired.

 

I have complete and total hatred of all of the talking head draftnik morons who want to tell me player A should be picked at spot 8, but picking him at spot 6 is a reach, and picking him at spot 13 would be amazing value.  That is complete and total stupid on steroids. There is absolutely no way to know that.  It's a world invented by Mel Kiper, who should be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame because he almost single handedly made the draft what it is and created an industry of draft predicting and big boards, but is all for a TV show. I love Mel.  And his hairdo. 

You don't trust any analyst and you don't watch any college football, but you're full of opinions about it.

 

We have 5 picks in the top 100 and then a few more and they're all important.

 

There are certain positions that go off the board at certain points of the draft and some who rise above that and some slip[ past. It's a crap shoot, but you can't ignore production, measurables, and a bunch of other stuff and yes, a full media market has been built around it.

 

If you read this thread religiously, you'll see a group of about 7 or 8 posters conversing back and forth about a bunch of players they like and then every once in a while some random poster comes in declaring player X the generational must have and everyone moves on.

 

Unless you are making the point like you made in the preseason about how it's impossible to tell if any team is going to be better than another team, because then I don't want to talk to you.

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am right now open to anything.  Trade down.  Take a tackle.  Take Harrison if they land at #3 but assuming they won't pick #3.  And Bowers.  My only argument is with anyone (not you) who says there is a clear right way to do this.

 

I am a little higher it seems on Fashanu and Alt than some on the draft thread.  While I agree neither is Joe Thomas both potentially are super good.  

 

Fashanu -- his freakish talent is easy to see.  Wicked fast first step which helps against some of the speed rushers in this division.   His legs-anchoring ability seem freakish.  I get why he ended up on Feldman's freak list for his agility.  He sometime loses leverage with his hands, his hands can be sloppy, yet he can hold up to bull rushers, etc because he anchors so well because of the strength and bend of his legs.  And he recovers so fast when he loses leverage initially.    He's just OK right now IMO in the run game. 

 

Alt --he might have like 36 arms.  His length is insane.   He doesn't get beat.  I wish he had more upper body strength.  He mirrors very well.  And for a 6 '8 dude he sinks his hips really well.  He's good with some nasty in the run game.  High floor prospect IMO.  He reminds me on some front of Chris Samuel.    He doesn't wow you with killer plays but he's so steady and consistent and that's what you want from your LT.

 

Both players also with special intangibles-smarts and work ethic from what I read.  So overall I wouldn't hate them taking either dude.

 

But conversely, I love Fauga and like Guyton and haven't watched the others yet.  So I can see a trade down. 

 

Harrison Jr, is a no brainer pick on the off chance they could take him.  As you know, I love TEs.  And Bowers look special.  I do value a LT over a TE.  But Bowers as a TE is more special IMO than Fashanu or Alt. 

 

And also lets not forget as Standig just ironically mentioned on 980 and Cooley harps on from time to time -- there is a value for a team lacking elite players to take a potential elite player.

 

I know some say we don't know if they are elite.  But look especially in the top 5, dudes who look elite in college have a very good chance to be special in the NFL.   Just because there isn't a perfect way to pick players doesn't mean we just disregard the scouts rating of said players if for example their scouts believe Bowers is elite.

This was a great post. I totally agree.

[CommDownMan]

The trick here (even when talking about Chase) is who is doing the evaluating.  When we selected Jamin Davis, Darrisaw was available.  Looking back and "re-doing" Kerrigan and Watt doesn't mean much if they weren't going to pick Watt either way.  I'm not saying they wouldn't, but it's easy to look back and see the better choice.  

 

I want a solid talent evaluator that has a plan. 

 

If a QB is coveted that isn't a big improvement from Howell (based on new GM eval) and they rank the top 10 OT closely and expect the first 10 all go by pick 40, trade back from 5, get pick ~15 and use some of that ammo to trade back up to ~20 and get your bookends.  Fuaga, Mims, Latham currently projected around here.  Still likely end up with a extra 3rd from starting point, so another 4 picks in the 40-100 range.  

 

However, if MHJ is there and is rated well above everyone else, get the blue chip player and hope you get what you need in the second round.  

 

I get why people would be for/against trade backs, but with a good evaluator of talent, I hope to see movement in both directions as it makes sense.

 

edit: Darn work got in the way and SIP already, more eloquently, made this point.  Haha.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by CommDownMan

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Then trade down and get more then one OT if it's that deep.

 

RonMart is getting fired at minimum because he completely neglected the oline, not because he drafted for need for that position group.

 

These talking points for BPA vs Need do not change how big a need overhauling the oline is.  That includes starters and depth for the injuries we seem to incur every year. 

 

I would argue he's getting fired for far more than that:

#1 Totally ignored QB with blue chip assets, instead mining for cheap gap filling options via trades and cheapy signings. Taking a QB in the 5th round is not a remotely serious investment. They were lucky, not really smart, but at least they took the right one unlike the patriots right in front of them.

#2 They addressed a strength, the DL, and wasted a key blue chip asset on a luxury player who was a developmental prospect (Jamin), and generally invested far more attention, free agent $$$, and draft capital on the D then on the O when we play in a league that tremendously rewards investing in the offense w/rule changes. 

#3 They ignored the OL, and playmaking positions, and when they addressed the playmaking positions, they drafted guys with JAG written all over them (the TE's, Brian Robinson, and Dotson, were all "ummm, meh" selections.

 

If you basically invest primiarly in defense, and draft busts or disappointments, and sign at best needle not movers, and your moves on offense barely move the needle above replacement level, you're gonna suck. Now consider they also ignored QB with serious investments (via trade or the draft) all four offseasons, and you get why they suck. It's ALL OF IT. Everything they did was basically 101 level wrong. The only smart thing was Leno, and even that was more inexplicable luck, like Howell, than genius, at the time, and after nobody I know of could understand why he was allowed to move on by the Bears, it made no sense then, and less now. That was flukish luck, and the only smart piece of it, was we took advantage of the screw up, like we took advantage of teams taking reaches over Howell in '22. Good that we did, but when it requires teams to screw up a gazillion times in the draft, or in FA or whatever, well, part of that is a luck thing more than a smart thing.

 

Overhauling the OL is fine btw, I don't have an issue with that, but we can be flexible in how we choose to address it. We have the $$$ to go after anyone we want in FA, and there are a couple of move the needle guys available, and we will have 3 top 45 picks (maybe top 40 and likely 4 in the top 70-75. We have plenty of ammo. We could use our first, but we absolutely do not HAVE TO. I'd probably do it for the Penn State kid if he's there, but otherwise I'd trade down, or take a QB, or if Harrison falls, Harrison. I'd also have Bowers in the back of my mind depending upon whether he falls or not due to the injury. 

[Conn]

56 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

To get boring and technical. Amon-Ra was an outlier selection. He was a mid 4th rounder, the hit rate on mid 4th round WR's is exceptionally low (and far worse 5th-7th rounds). To bet on being able to land a top 5-10 WR with pick 112 is a fools errand, hell we couldn't do it with a top 20 pick a gazillion times the past thirty years (Desmond Howard in '92, Michael Westbunk in '95, Rod Gardner in '01, Josh Doctson in '16, and Jahan Dotson in '22). 

Thank you. That **** drives me crazy. “I’d rather just draft Stefon Diggs in the 5th round than take a stud prospect early on”. Yeah, everyone would. Outliers are outliers for a reason. Stupid ass hypotheticals. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I want another first rounder in 25.

Depends what team it would be from. The Chicago trade with Carolina last year was genius. Bad Defense, no weapons on offense, young, tiny QB? That pick was guaranteed to be top 10 in '24. Kinda like when we stole two firsts from Carolina 25 years ago for Sean Gilbert (and then wasted on on a Brad Johnson rental). My big issue w/trading the pick is that for now anyway, while not as bad as '22, the the '25 QB class looks a bit similar to '19, with maybe one super blue chipper, and not a lot of depth, especially 1st round depth. I don't know how valuable the pick is, I also don't know how good the class is. 

[The Consigliere]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am right now open to anything.  Trade down.  Take a tackle.  Take Harrison if they land at #3 but assuming they won't pick #3.  And Bowers.  My only argument is with anyone (not you) who says there is a clear right way to do this.

 

I am a little higher it seems on Fashanu and Alt than some on the draft thread.  While I agree neither is Joe Thomas both potentially are super good.  

 

Fashanu -- his freakish talent is easy to see.  Wicked fast first step which helps against some of the speed rushers in this division.   His legs-anchoring ability seem freakish.  I get why he ended up on Feldman's freak list for his agility.  He sometime loses leverage with his hands, his hands can be sloppy, yet he can hold up to bull rushers, etc because he anchors so well because of the strength and bend of his legs.  And he recovers so fast when he loses leverage initially.    He's just OK right now IMO in the run game. 

 

Alt --he might have like 36 arms.  His length is insane.   He doesn't get beat.  I wish he had more upper body strength.  He mirrors very well.  And for a 6 '8 dude he sinks his hips really well.  He's good with some nasty in the run game.  High floor prospect IMO.  He reminds me on some front of Chris Samuel.    He doesn't wow you with killer plays but he's so steady and consistent and that's what you want from your LT.

 

Both players also with special intangibles-smarts and work ethic from what I read.  So overall I wouldn't hate them taking either dude.

 

But conversely, I love Fauga and like Guyton and haven't watched the others yet.  So I can see a trade down. 

 

Harrison Jr, is a no brainer pick on the off chance they could take him.  As you know, I love TEs.  And Bowers look special.  I do value a LT over a TE.  But Bowers as a TE is more special IMO than Fashanu or Alt. 

 

And also lets not forget as Standig just ironically mentioned on 980 and Cooley harps on from time to time -- there is a value for a team lacking elite players to take a potential elite player.

 

I know some say we don't know if they are elite.  But look especially in the top 5, dudes who look elite in college have a very good chance to be special in the NFL.   Just because there isn't a perfect way to pick players doesn't mean we just disregard the scouts rating of said players if for example their scouts believe Bowers is elite.

 

I would recommend that while I tend to agree that plenty of elite TE's can be found in later rounds. All the best TE's in the league right now are basically later draft picks, either day 2 or 3 (Kelce, Andrews, Kittle) or later day 1/2 turn style guys like Laporta and Kincaid and Goedert (constantly injured), Trey McBride whose waking up now etc. So you can definitely get a top 10 pick outside the blue chip zone, but people thinking about showing Pitts as an example of why not to do it, should note that Atlanta's build has been incomprehensibly stupid, not taking OL's or QB's when they should, then adding weapons for a QB not on the roster, and then not actually using them. They were using Jonnu more than Pitts earlier in the year, Bijan was a majority back in a semi-committee, they only pepper London with targets occasionally. Pitts has been wasted by an incompetent organization just like our DL was by this one. A total luxury waste pick. 

 

Bowers could be legit for us, but we need to know something before we take him, namely: how stupidly obsessed will the coaching staff be about getting his "in line" game to acceptable levels? You simply cannot waste a players talent because they aren't elite at a job that has little to do with what makes them special in the first place. Its always better to get a TE with elite chops at both, but those guys are pretty rare. The saving grace here is that he seems to be at least solid in terms of in line game, but I have nightmares of stupid coaches and organizations like the Browns with Njoku, wasting talent for a half decade because they want him to do perfectly, what has very little to do with what makes him special. 

[Warhead36]

I want 2026 1sts for Arch Manning.

 

I'm only half kidding.

[Conn]

42 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

You don't trust any analyst and you don't watch any college football, but you're full of opinions about it.

I was trying to think of a nice way to say it but sometimes it’s best to just be blunt. It did make me laugh though 

[88Comrade2000]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Depends what team it would be from. The Chicago trade with Carolina last year was genius. Bad Defense, no weapons on offense, young, tiny QB? That pick was guaranteed to be top 10 in '24. Kinda like when we stole two firsts from Carolina 25 years ago for Sean Gilbert (and then wasted on on a Brad Johnson rental). My big issue w/trading the pick is that for now anyway, while not as bad as '22, the the '25 QB class looks a bit similar to '19, with maybe one super blue chipper, and not a lot of depth, especially 1st round depth. I don't know how valuable the pick is, I also don't know how good the class is. 

A smart Gm can do it. Eagles got more picks and then when there was a player they wanted , they traded up.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Conn said:

I was trying to think of a nice way to say it but sometimes it’s best to just be blunt. It did make me laugh though 

Gotta keep our draft threads on point. Most of need to just read and not heard from. Usually myself included.

[Renegade7]

@The Consigliere

 

It goes both ways for me, if needs can addressed via free agency then so can elite players.

 

I'd like to see a combination of addressing needs and need for elite talent via the draft and free agency. 

 

Selecting BPA when I believe they will fit the scheme of the coaching staff or culture the new GM is trying to establish.  It shouldn't be a blank check to take whoever Kiper says is the best player in the board, otherwise let him do the draft for us.

 

Bowers has my attention, but only if he's actually really good at blocking.  That would help adding a weapon and improving our blocking at the same time, which would make a lot of people happy.

[Warhead36]

I do like the idea of getting future 1sts though. They tend to be undervalued, especially by teams making desperation short term moves. Plus its pretty fun rooting against a team because you want a high pick from them. It'll be fun for example rooting vehemently against the Bears tonight and that's only for their 2nd rounder. Imagine if we had their 1st...

[Renegade7]

10 minutes ago, Conn said:

I was trying to think of a nice way to say it but sometimes it’s best to just be blunt. It did make me laugh though 

 

You and "nice way to say things" dont belong in the same sentence...

 

"I'm going to kill you..." *has to elbow you again "...with kindness."

Edited November 27, 2023 by Renegade7

[The Consigliere]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

Thank you. That **** drives me crazy. “I’d rather just draft Stefon Diggs in the 5th round than take a stud prospect early on”. Yeah, everyone would. Outliers are outliers for a reason. Stupid ass hypotheticals. 

 

A few years ago to stream line my dynasty research I collected the bust/replacement level/hit rate of guys taken on the 5th round or later at WR and the hit rate was so low. You would not believe how few of the top 50 seasons from 2001-2020 were produced by guys drafted 5th-7th round or signed as UDFA's. It was so minisculue as to make addressing the position after round 4 utterly nonsensical. Round 4 was bad, really bad, but 5th round or later was basically tossing your pick in the garbage at a significantly higher rate than even QB because there were so so so so many more busts selected. 

 

WR's is a position to address on day 1 or day 2, the only selling point of using a 4th (and don't use lower) is that, yes, if they have ST's talent, you can stash them justifiably. It's also worth noting that Diggs was an elite prospect coming out of college, and part of the reason he went low was because of mental make up issues and the craptacular nature of Maryland. A lot of concerns supposedly with a suspension, and a fight involving Diggs. Sometimes if you look under the hood, you can see why a guy was better. With Diggs, and with our own Howell, there was plenty of data to suggest why they would make a smart investment on day 2, well before day 3. You need to look for those profiles. It's basically a twist on the reason why the Dolphins got Dan Marino instead of Todd Blackledge, or Tony Eason, or Ken O'Brien. Dig into that profile. RB is particularly valuable for this. Over the years guys like Aaron Jones made obvious sense on day 3, and other 2nd round and late 1st rounders like Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne represented 10x the value of reaches for guys like Zeke, Gurley, Bijan, Josh Jacobs etc inside the top 10ish and top 20ish area. 

[CommDownMan]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I do like the idea of getting future 1sts though. They tend to be undervalued, especially by teams making desperation short term moves. Plus its pretty fun rooting against a team because you want a high pick from them. It'll be fun for example rooting vehemently against the Bears tonight and that's only for their 2nd rounder. Imagine if we had their 1st...

 

There used to be a general rule that future picks were downgraded a round from a value perspective (draft pick value has changed, so I don't know how true that is now).  For teams that are not ready for a deep playoff run, getting future picks at a 'discount' is well worth evaluating.  

[The Consigliere]

16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I want 2026 1sts for Arch Manning.

 

I'm only half kidding.

Well, considering how much they botched the rebuild the last four years, it's not impossible. 

13 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

A smart Gm can do it. Eagles got more picks and then when there was a player they wanted , they traded up.

The Golden Loom approach, when you can pull it off, it's the right thing to do. It's what I argued they should do with picks in '19 and '22 because the QB classes sucked, but the overall class was okay, just build a loom for better classes, but the team decided to go after Haskins and Jahan Dotson instead. 

[The Consigliere]

11 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

@The Consigliere

 

It goes both ways for me, if needs can addressed via free agency then so can elite players.

 

I'd like to see a combination of addressing needs and need for elite talent via the draft and free agency. 

 

Selecting BPA when I believe they will fit the scheme of the coaching staff or culture the new GM is trying to establish.  It shouldn't be a blank check to take whoever Kiper says is the best player in the board, otherwise let him do the draft for us.

 

Bowers has my attention, but only if he's actually really good at blocking.  That would help adding a weapon and improving our blocking at the same time, which would make a lot of people happy.

It's a waste to take Bowers and then use him as an extra blocker. Use him for what makes him special, elite passing game weapon chops. In line skills will help the same way drafting a bell cow back that has passing game chops will (allows you to better disguise play calling), but it shouldn't be the priority. 

 

With 4 top 75 picks, we can draft with flexibility, even trade down or out if we wish. The rebuild is gonna take a while. Plenty of ways to address everything, and I'm still open to QB, still lots of people wondering if we have 4 QB's go top 10-15 instead of just 2 or 3. A lot of weirdness likely to happen over the next 5 months. 

[Renegade7]

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's a waste to take Bowers and then use him as an extra blocker. Use him for what makes him special, elite passing game weapon chops. In line skills will help the same way drafting a bell cow back that has passing game chops will (allows you to better disguise play calling), but it shouldn't be the priority. 

 

If you want a target where it doesn't matter if they can block, draft a WR.

 

TE's can be instrumental in run blocking and chipping even when they go out if passes.

 

We've had TEs that can't block for ****, I'm not interested in anymore.

 

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

With 4 top 75 picks, we can draft with flexibility, even trade down or out if we wish. The rebuild is gonna take a while. Plenty of ways to address everything, and I'm still open to QB, still lots of people wondering if we have 4 QB's go top 10-15 instead of just 2 or 3. A lot of weirdness likely to happen over the next 5 months. 

 

A lot of opinions on how long this will take.  I believe Howell is good enough QB isn't a high priority and the team could be competitive very quickly depending on where we focus our resources first in context of how long it may take to address different position groups. 

 

It will take longer to be competitive if we don't prioritize oline, imo, I've watched this position group ruin multiple games this year.  It only takes one or two loses to be in our out the playoff race as a wildcard.

[method man]

13 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's a waste to take Bowers and then use him as an extra blocker. Use him for what makes him special, elite passing game weapon chops. In line skills will help the same way drafting a bell cow back that has passing game chops will (allows you to better disguise play calling), but it shouldn't be the priority. 

 

With 4 top 75 picks, we can draft with flexibility, even trade down or out if we wish. The rebuild is gonna take a while. Plenty of ways to address everything, and I'm still open to QB, still lots of people wondering if we have 4 QB's go top 10-15 instead of just 2 or 3. A lot of weirdness likely to happen over the next 5 months. 

The point of Bowers at least being a threat as a blocker is 1) it is less of a giveaway of what we are going to do when he is on the field and 2) a big reason our run game is not very good is because our receivers and TEs can’t block (Gruden keeps calling this out). As great as Kittle and Kelce are as receivers, both guys are also fantastic blockers

[Warhead36]

Yeah we need a TE who can block AND catch. But thankfully, Bowers fits the bill. He's a heck of a blocker on top of being a tremendous receiver.

[Conn]

21 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

A few years ago to stream line my dynasty research I collected the bust/replacement level/hit rate of guys taken on the 5th round or later at WR and the hit rate was so low. You would not believe how few of the top 50 seasons from 2001-2020 were produced by guys drafted 5th-7th round or signed as UDFA's. It was so minisculue as to make addressing the position after round 4 utterly nonsensical. Round 4 was bad, really bad, but 5th round or later was basically tossing your pick in the garbage at a significantly higher rate than even QB because there were so so so so many more busts selected. 

 

WR's is a position to address on day 1 or day 2, the only selling point of using a 4th (and don't use lower) is that, yes, if they have ST's talent, you can stash them justifiably. It's also worth noting that Diggs was an elite prospect coming out of college, and part of the reason he went low was because of mental make up issues and the craptacular nature of Maryland. A lot of concerns supposedly with a suspension, and a fight involving Diggs. Sometimes if you look under the hood, you can see why a guy was better. With Diggs, and with our own Howell, there was plenty of data to suggest why they would make a smart investment on day 2, well before day 3. You need to look for those profiles. It's basically a twist on the reason why the Dolphins got Dan Marino instead of Todd Blackledge, or Tony Eason, or Ken O'Brien. Dig into that profile. RB is particularly valuable for this. Over the years guys like Aaron Jones made obvious sense on day 3, and other 2nd round and late 1st rounders like Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne represented 10x the value of reaches for guys like Zeke, Gurley, Bijan, Josh Jacobs etc inside the top 10ish and top 20ish area. 

Preaching to the choir here, I delve into this same stuff for dynasty and very frequently nod along to your posts on the topic. I drafted Diggs in a devy league after his Freshman year, absolutely loved him. Held him through his leaner Soph season and then through his draft fall the next year, and enjoyed his rise with the Vikings greatly. 

[Koolblue13]

18 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's a waste to take Bowers and then use him as an extra blocker. Use him for what makes him special, elite passing game weapon chops. In line skills will help the same way drafting a bell cow back that has passing game chops will (allows you to better disguise play calling), but it shouldn't be the priority. 

 

With 4 top 75 picks, we can draft with flexibility, even trade down or out if we wish. The rebuild is gonna take a while. Plenty of ways to address everything, and I'm still open to QB, still lots of people wondering if we have 4 QB's go top 10-15 instead of just 2 or 3. A lot of weirdness likely to happen over the next 5 months. 

You make it sound like either Bowers has to catch a pass every play or he's a waste. His blocking ability makes him an every down player, which is fantastic.That's what makes him so valuable.