2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Skinsinparadise]

Listened to Aaron Schatz, the dude who founded Football Outsiders.

 

A.  Thinks this team is likely medicore.  His metrics have them at 7.8 wins.

 

B.  He is high on Daboll and Schoen but his metrics has the Giants with the toughest schedule in the NFC so he doesn't see it for them this season.

 

C.  Their numbers have Dallas as the best team in the NFC.  They've struggled in the playoffs but their regular season numbers are the best.

 

D.  He thinks with this team, the defense is for real and will remain good, "meh" as to the offense

 

E. He's high on Josh Harris' emphasis on anayltics, he thinks it will bode well for this team over time.  He goes that the only team that is heavy on anayltics and isn't good are the Browns.

 

F.  His point on Harris and the 76ers is you just want to have a shot at the dance every year and that's been the case for them.  

 

G.  Talked about how the Cowboys are going to town on building their anayltics team this off season.

 

H.  Not high on Howell.  He gets that the fan base here is excited but his point is that's normal, talk to a Pats fan and 2 years ago they were giddy about Mac Jones, now they are talking up Zappe.   Local fan bases get jazzed about their homegrown QB but explained why the rest of the league is skeptical and not phased by the normal local fan excitement about said QB.

 

I.  Doesn't think this team is a serious contender for the playoffs. 

 

J.  Expects Harris to make changes in the next off season if the season goes how he expects. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

None of those takes are really unreasonable to be honest.

[Going Commando]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:22 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

If it were me, I'd have shorn up left guard.  Nate Davis or Ben Powers or heck even if they wanted to go uber cheap Will Hernandez.   I'd have aimed higher at center Pocic, McGovern.  McGovern was even cheaper than Gates.   If they did that, i could deal with Wylie at RT.

 

It had to be a center in FA IMO.  We had no center prospects in the pipeline to call up for this season, and going with Howell at QB means we have to play a vet center to help with the protection calls in game.  Somebody with some experience reading fronts has to be on the field to give us a chance there.  At LG, we at least have two pipeline guys to try out this year.  They're athletic players, and I think Paul is promising and worth some patience, though he might be a more natural fit on the right side at either guard or tackle.

 

The problem for us with someone like Pocic is that he misses too much time every year.  Might as well roll the dice with Gates in that regard.  The center McGovern from Missouri is who I think you meant, agreed he would have been nice. But I think there was an Aaron Rodgers effect on his decision to stay for cheap with the Jets, and he's also already 30.  He would have been fine, but Gates might have more years in him plus position versatility to where we can move him to a guard spot if Stromberg comes on quick.

 

I'm hoping Stromberg develops really fast and holds down the starting C job sooner than later.  But we have to be realistic and acknowledge that Howell is in for a very tough road this year, and he has a million things on his plate.  Quarterback does such a good job of showing us how hard it is to manage the starting job week to week, where even ten year vets are desperately contemplating quitting midseason because of the extreme pressure and pain management and the prep work they have to start anew every week.  Howell will be going through this process for the first time, plus he is learning a new offense.  He's going to need a lot of help from the vets in our WR/TE groups and our OL with the coverage and protection reads.  We give him a better chance with Gates at C than a rookie.  If Gates goes down, then we have no choice but to play Stromberg and hope for the best.  But while we still have a choice, Gates is our best option.

 

If we're lucky, Stromberg red shirts and Howell grows a ton this season, to where a confident second season starter in 2024 is comfortable making all of the protection changes and takes the burden off an inexperienced starting C.  IMO these red shirt seasons for our day two and three picks like Forrest and Paul and Howell, and perhaps even the later bloomers like Hudson and Charles are really important.  They give these guys the best chance at success, and are a sign of a functional player development machine if/when they eventually move into big roles like Forrest did.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

F.  His point on Harris and the 76ers is you just want to have a shot at the dance every year and that's been the case for them.  

 

Probably not everyone here is an NBA guy, and I doubt Schatz is, so I want to explain that that line of thinking works for baseball and football but not the NBA.  The NBA doesn't have that kind of spontaneous parity, team building mistakes are so much more punishing in that league, and there is typically a HUGE gap in quality between the few genuine title contenders and the rest of the playoff field.

 

It's not a significant achievement, nor a sign of organizational quality/functionality/progress for a team to regularly make the postseason in the NBA.  If you have a transcendent player on your team, you will win enough regular season games every year they are healthy to make the playoffs.  That is the minimum amount of success just having that one player buoys you into.  Especially in the Eastern Conference of the past 25 years, and especially when that player is a seven footer like Joel Embiid.

 

However, it IS a significant failure to not be able to build a serious championship contender around a transcendent seven footer.  That has been the surest ticket to a title over the entire history if the league.  And it is incredibly damning that the 76ers have appeared to squander their shot with Embiid and steadily degrade in talent given they had two #1 overall picks, another #3 overall pick, and three other high lottery picks since Harris bought the team, all in a close proximity of drafting Embiid, and not a single one of those players made it more than a couple of seasons in Philly.  It's the richest bounty of draft resources an NBA team has ever squandered, and now Joel Embiid is already thinking he's on a dead end team and making comments to the media about how he just wants to win a championship and might have to leave Philly to do it.

 

I know you compare the frequency of Philly's postseason appearances in the Josh Harris era to the frequency of Redskins/Commanders playoff trips in the Snyder era as a sign of the quality of a Harris organization.  But it's an apples to oranges comparison.  Making the playoffs every year in the NFL IS a significant achievement and sign of organizational quality and stability.  It's not at all in the NBA.  Set aside that it is significantly easier for any team to make a postseason where ten our of 15 teams are in the running to do it every year.  All it really takes to make it into the playoffs in the NBA is having one great player or three to four pretty good ones, and you can accomplish this without ever even coming close to being a real title contender.  The Atlanta Hawks are the most consistent postseason berth team in the Eastern conference over the past fifteen years, and they are considered a very middling organization that has never even sniffed a realistic title shot during that time frame.  And yet they beat a favored Joel Embiid Sixers team in the playoffs one year, and have actually made it to a conference final a couple of times.  The Wizards are generally considered one of the worst and most dysfunctional Mom and Pop franchises in the NBA, and even they made the postseason routinely in healthy John Wall seasons, and even made the second round a couple of times like Philly has in the Embiid era.  So you can fall into that very modest level of success just from drafting a single transcendent player at the top of a draft.

 

Harris's ownership tenure of the 76ers is no kind of harbinger of success for his NFL ownership.  If Embiid ends up leaving without ever having won anything significant there, "The Process" is going to be remembered as one of the most spectacular team building failures and examples of mismanagement in NBA history.  We have to hope that Harris is a lot better with an NFL franchise.  His record with the 76ers is why I'm not in a hurry to see him come here and start breaking things and making a bunch of changes.

[mhd24]

11 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Probably not everyone here is an NBA guy, and I doubt Schatz is, so I want to explain that that line of thinking works for baseball and football but not the NBA.  The NBA doesn't have that kind of spontaneous parity, team building mistakes are so much more punishing in that league, and there is typically a HUGE gap in quality between the few genuine title contenders and the rest of the playoff field.

 

It's not a significant achievement, nor a sign of organizational quality/functionality/progress for a team to regularly make the postseason in the NBA.  If you have a transcendent player on your team, you will win enough regular season games every year they are healthy to make the playoffs.  That is the minimum amount of success just having that one player buoys you into.  Especially in the Eastern Conference of the past 25 years, and especially when that player is a seven footer like Joel Embiid.

 

However, it IS a significant failure to not be able to build a serious championship contender around a transcendent seven footer.  That has been the surest ticket to a title over the entire history if the league.  And it is incredibly damning that the 76ers have appeared to squander their shot with Embiid and steadily degrade in talent given they had two #1 overall picks, another #3 overall pick, and three other high lottery picks since Harris bought the team, all in a close proximity of drafting Embiid, and not a single one of those players made it more than a couple of seasons in Philly.  It's the richest bounty of draft resources an NBA team has ever squandered, and now Joel Embiid is already thinking he's on a dead end team and making comments to the media about how he just wants to win a championship and might have to leave Philly to do it.

 

I know you compare the frequency of Philly's postseason appearances in the Josh Harris era to the frequency of Redskins/Commanders playoff trips in the Snyder era as a sign of the quality of a Harris organization.  But it's an apples to oranges comparison.  Making the playoffs every year in the NFL IS a significant achievement and sign of organizational quality and stability.  It's not at all in the NBA.  Set aside that it is significantly easier for any team to make a postseason where ten our of 15 teams are in the running to do it every year.  All it really takes to make it into the playoffs in the NBA is having one great player or three to four pretty good ones, and you can accomplish this without ever even coming close to being a real title contender.  The Atlanta Hawks are the most consistent postseason berth team in the Eastern conference over the past fifteen years, and they are considered a very middling organization that has never even sniffed a realistic title shot during that time frame.  And yet they beat a favored Joel Embiid Sixers team in the playoffs one year, and have actually made it to a conference final a couple of times.  The Wizards are generally considered one of the worst and most dysfunctional Mom and Pop franchises in the NBA, and even they made the postseason routinely in healthy John Wall seasons, and even made the second round a couple of times like Philly has in the Embiid era.  So you can fall into that very modest level of success just from drafting a single transcendent player at the top of a draft.

 

Harris's ownership tenure of the 76ers is no kind of harbinger of success for his NFL ownership.  If Embiid ends up leaving without ever having won anything significant there, "The Process" is going to be remembered as one of the most spectacular team building failures and examples of mismanagement in NBA history.  We have to hope that Harris is a lot better with an NFL franchise.  His record with the 76ers is why I'm not in a hurry to see him come here and start breaking things and making a bunch of changes.

 

 

Yeah, the NBA is completely different from the NFL.  You must have a superstar to win a title.  There has only been one champion in the last 40 years that didn't have a top tier player (the Pistons in 2004) and they won with a complete team that bought into defense and Larry Brown.  And yet, if Karl Malone doesn't get injured that year, I think the Lakers could have taken them.  

 

The NBA kind of forced Philly to hire an incompetent GM in Bryan Colangelo who destroyed their resources to be fair.  Hinke was doing exactly what needed to be done in terms of accumulating draft assets.  

 

The NFL is a completely different ballgame.  You just want to make the dance.

55 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

It had to be a center in FA IMO.  We had no center prospects in the pipeline to call up for this season, and going with Howell at QB means we have to play a vet center to help with the protection calls in game.  Somebody with some experience reading fronts has to be on the field to give us a chance there.  At LG, we at least have two pipeline guys to try out this year.  They're athletic players, and I think Paul is promising and worth some patience, though he might be a more natural fit on the right side at either guard or tackle.

 

The problem for us with someone like Pocic is that he misses too much time every year.  Might as well roll the dice with Gates in that regard.  The center McGovern from Missouri is who I think you meant, agreed he would have been nice. But I think there was an Aaron Rodgers effect on his decision to stay for cheap with the Jets, and he's also already 30.  He would have been fine, but Gates might have more years in him plus position versatility to where we can move him to a guard spot if Stromberg comes on quick.

 

I'm hoping Stromberg develops really fast and holds down the starting C job sooner than later.  But we have to be realistic and acknowledge that Howell is in for a very tough road this year, and he has a million things on his plate.  Quarterback does such a good job of showing us how hard it is to manage the starting job week to week, where even ten year vets are desperately contemplating quitting midseason because of the extreme pressure and pain management and the prep work they have to start anew every week.  Howell will be going through this process for the first time, plus he is learning a new offense.  He's going to need a lot of help from the vets in our WR/TE groups and our OL with the coverage and protection reads.  We give him a better chance with Gates at C than a rookie.  If Gates goes down, then we have no choice but to play Stromberg and hope for the best.  But while we still have a choice, Gates is our best option.

 

If we're lucky, Stromberg red shirts and Howell grows a ton this season, to where a confident second season starter in 2024 is comfortable making all of the protection changes and takes the burden off an inexperienced starting C.  IMO these red shirt seasons for our day two and three picks like Forrest and Paul and Howell, and perhaps even the later bloomers like Hudson and Charles are really important.  They give these guys the best chance at success, and are a sign of a functional player development machine if/when they eventually move into big roles like Forrest did.

 

I think having Larson as a steady vet backup is also nice for Stromberg to ease into the eventual starter.  Our season collapsed when Larson went down last year.  

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

The problem for us with someone like Pocic is that he misses too much time every year.  Might as well roll the dice with Gates in that regard.  The center McGovern from Missouri is who I think you meant, agreed he would have been nice. But I think there was an Aaron Rodgers effect on his decision to stay for cheap with the Jets, and he's also already 30.  He would have been fine, but Gates might have more years in him plus position versatility to where we can move him to a guard spot if Stromberg comes on quick.

 

 

13, 13, 14 games the last three years, not bad, Gates missed more time.   I'd agree with your point if Gates was the better player but by reputation he isn't.   Pocic got paid just a little more too than Gates.  their contracts are similar. 5.5 million for Gates.  6 for Pocic.

 

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

 

I'm hoping Stromberg develops really fast and holds down the starting C job sooner than later.  But we have to be realistic and acknowledge that Howell is in for a very tough road this year, and he has a million things on his plate.  Quarterback does such a good job of showing us how hard it is to manage the starting job week to week, where even ten year vets are desperately contemplating quitting midseason because of the extreme pressure and pain management and the prep work they have to start anew every week.  Howell will be going through this process for the first time, plus he is learning a new offense.  He's going to need a lot of help from the vets in our WR/TE groups and our OL with the coverage and protection reads.  We give him a better chance with Gates at C than a rookie.  If Gates goes down, then we have no choice but to play Stromberg and hope for the best.  But while we still have a choice, Gates is our best option.

 

 

Agree with most of this.  I am OK with the idea of starting a veteran.   My point is if they want to juice the run game, Stromberg IMO could help do that.  Gates at least judging by PFF scores isn't that much of a run blocker but will see.

 

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Harris's ownership tenure of the 76ers is no kind of harbinger of success for his NFL ownership.  If Embiid ends up leaving without ever having won anything significant there, "The Process" is going to be remembered as one of the most spectacular team building failures and examples of mismanagement in NBA history.  We have to hope that Harris is a lot better with an NFL franchise.  His record with the 76ers is why I'm not in a hurry to see him come here and start breaking things and making a bunch of changes.

 

Good stuff as your basketball explanations.  I am not even a casual basketball fan.  I'll watch some of the playoffs and thats it.  I am becoming an intense but not yet a fantatic LFC fan but getting there, and know the premier league OK but mostly through that LFC lense.  And back in the day I was even bigger into baseball than I am football, but its been 20 years or so since I loved baseball.  So for me its this team, the NFL and LFC.  i wished i loved basketball and or hockey or heck still loved baseball.  

 

My son has tried to get me into basketball and watched the 76ers once Harris emerged as the likely owner.  So I ended up following them some in the later parts of the season.  There is a dude here forgetting whom, who knows basketball and is a big 76ers fan and loves Harris.  He posted a ton about Harris on the owners thread.  But forgetting the username.  Maybe someone else here remembers?  He could give you a better debate about the 76ers than I can dream of. 

 

So my take on Harris has been mainly driven by people who know him and have been interviewed about him, and reading a ton of clippings.  He's not universally loved but he mostly is.  Most of the ones who covered him in Philly are high on him.  But two reporters who covered ther Eagles but are 76ers fans hate him. 

 

Joe Banner who once ran the Eagles and thinks very little of this team and Dan Snyder -- he has interacted with Harris though and knows someone who knows him well.  He thought very highly of Harris as did the person who worked with him.  And a bunch of others with similar experiences have said the same.

 

I don't really hang wins and loses on the owner.  I want the owner to spend money and not just on players but for FO people and coaches and the top equipment and facilities.  Our owner didn't do that.   He did for a spell on players and coaches earlier in his tenure but not the rest of it.  Then in later years he spent less on just about everything.  Harris is willing to go top of the line.  Ritz level quality versus the Motel 6 stuff that Dan was about. 

 

I want an owner who lets his GM do his thing without interfering.  Even the Eagles reporter who hates Harris, admitted that Harris doesn't interferre.   Part of his beef with Harris is he wants him to interfere.  

 

I don't expect the owner to always cull the perfect coach, GM, facility, you name it.  But I want the mindset for going for the best.  And for most who know Harris, say that's his approach.   Heck Robert Kraft wasn't considered some genius until he hit on Belichick.  He made mistakes along the way but his mindset was right until he landed him.

 

I think being mediocre is the death knell of a football team.  You aren't good enough to compete for the big dance.  You aren't bad enough to easily get top talent, especially the rare franchise QB.  Harris seems to believe in the same. 

 

Dan on the other hand was never willing to take a step down to take two steps up.  It's insane to think of all of the draft picks given up by this organization during his tenure.  We got almost nothing back in draft capital.    As a reporter who covers this team likes to say, these guys are about aggressive mediocrity.

 

I don't live and die by anayltics but the fact that we are one of the two teams that continue to be derided for being the least involved in that dynamic while the Eagles who have owned this division for a good portion of Dan's run being the most active with it -- that bothers me.  The fact that Harris is very into anayltics and building a real staff to help on that front -- to me that's a plus. 

 

The Eagles use it for game planning and everything.  The Ravens, 49ers and other consistently good teams use every tool they can find including having big anayltics staffs.

Which NFL team is the least analytically advanced?

"I don't know much about [the Commanders and Titans]," one staffer said. Which is sort of the point -- analytics staffers often know each other and talk, the same way coaches know coaches and scouts know scouts.

That Tennessee and Washington have small analytics groups -- just one staffer each, to the best of my knowledge -- and their work isn't well known to their peers is a negative indicator. It doesn't rule out heavier quantitative involvement that isn't known to the outside, but when asked which teams are further behind from a data-analysis standpoint, those two teams are consistently brought up.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35189929/2022-nfl-analytics-survey-most-least-analytically-inclined-teams-overrated-underrated-players-more

 

 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Reg. the 76ers the only thing I'd blame Harris for is not going above the luxury tax to pay Jimmy Butler and pair him with Embiid. Beyond that, all you can do is ask the owner to hire smart people and let them do their job and that's exactly what he did. 

[MartinC]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I.  Doesn't think this team is a serious contender for the playoffs. 

 

 

 

I think thats just about the consensus on here as well. I think most of us have us at that 7 or 8 win mark.

 

Very few people are thinking we are a lock to contend for a playoff spot or go on a run.

 

Howell and the O'line are the swing factors (and kind of tied together). If they both play well we could easily get to 10 wins, if the O'line plays badly and Howell struggles and gets benched we could be 5 wins or less. But 7 wins is good over/under number for this team IMO.

 

By the way I would bet big money that the Cowboys don't end up with the best record in the NFC. Or likely NFC East for that matter!

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I think thats just about the consensus on here as well. I think most of us have us at that 7 or 8 win mark.

 

Very few people are thinking we are a lock to contend for a playoff spot or go on a run.

 

Howell and the O'line are the swing factors (and kind of tied together). If they both play well we could easily get to 10 wins, if the O'line plays badly and Howell struggles and gets benched we could be 5 wins or less. But 7 wins is good over/under number for this team IMO.

 

 

I was listening to Ross Tucker on a podcast today.  Tucker is usually nice to this franchise.   He was asked about why the national media, etc are so down on this team.  His point is that there are too many wildcards to bet on them.  His thought is its more about this team having some key unknowns where its hard to place your bets on them versus being negative about them.  The three variables he mentioned was:

 

A.  Howell is an unknown.

B.  New coordinator -- new offense is an unknown.

C. O line is a question mark

 

If these things all work out, the team should be good.  But he made a compelling case for why prognasticators aren't jumping on any bandwagon for this team.  It was all intuitive but he explained it well in my book.

 

15 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

By the way I would bet big money that the Cowboys don't end up with the best record in the NFC. Or likely NFC East for that matter!

 

Agree.  Something always seems to stop them especially in the post season.  The Football Outsiders guy point was he acknowledged that Dallas has been derailed in the post season but believes eventually it will click for them.  Citing the Colts years ago among other teams had that same issue but eventually they broke that cycle.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I was listening to Ross Tucker on a podcast today.  Tucker is usually nice to this franchise.   He was asked about why the national media, etc are so down on this team.  His point is that there are too many wildcards to bet on them.

 

A.  Howell is an unknown.

B.  New coordinator -- new offense is an unknown.

C. O line is a question mark

 

If these things all work out, the team should be good.  But he made a compelling case for why prognasticators aren't jumping on any bandwagon for this team. 

 

 

All fair points I think most of us would agree with. I don't think there is a bandwagon to jump on at this point.

 

We start with the Cardinals and Broncos. I could see us getting off to a hot start and people starting to get excited - next two games are Bills and Eagles so I'd wait until after that stretch before we start warming up the engine ...

 

(If we lose the first two it could get ugly fast.)

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 7/17/2023 at 10:01 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

64 in both games against Philly.  He only played one game against Dallas and as to a PFF score that was his best score that season by a mile, 82.

 

Against us, 47 and 66. 

Should I take this opportunity to point out PFF grades, especially OL grades. are assigned with a lot of thought but are as accurate as spinning a gigantic Wheel of Fortune style device to determine the outcome, the evaluators don’t know scheme or assignments, very few are former players or scouts, they are stats guys and GM wannabes who will amount to nothing more than pontificating talking heads?

 

Should I?

 

Oh, I think I will.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

32 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

All fair points I think most of us would agree with. I don't think there is a bandwagon to jump on at this point.

 

We start with the Cardinals and Broncos. I could see us getting off to a hot start and people starting to get excited - next two games are Bills and Eagles so I'd wait until after that stretch before we start warming up the engine ...

 

(If we lose the first two it could get ugly fast.)

For some reason I feel like the Bills might have a step back season this year, like their window closed a bit.  They still have Josh Allen, so they will be good.  (watch them go win the SB this year after I say that….)
 

I think Philly is going to come back to the pack a bit.  They got very lucky staying mostly healthy last year at key positions.  They’re still going to be good.  But as good? It’s tough to repeat that level over multiple seasons.  
 

We won’t be favored in either game, in fact we could be double digit underdogs in both.  
 

But I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat one of those teams if 2 things happen:

 

1. the defense is what we think it is. 
2. Howell is playing well.  Not just “better than Wentz” but well.

 

Is that going to happen?  Who knows.  But if it does they could win one of those games.  
 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

H.  Not high on Howell.  He gets that the fan base here is excited but his point is that's normal, talk to a Pats fan and 2 years ago they were giddy about Mac Jones, now they are talking up Zappe.   Local fan bases get jazzed about their homegrown QB but explained why the rest of the league is skeptical and not phased by the normal local fan excitement about said QB.

This is fair but it’s also the wild card.

 

I don’t think it’s possible for a Howell to be worse than Wentz/[REDACTED]. 

What most people are saying is Howell is essentially a rookie and is going to struggle, and be inconsistent.  
 

That’s the safe take.  And also the most likely scenario. 
 

Very few allow for the possibility Howell could actually be really good.  And there are plenty of examples of inexperienced QBs being very good quickly.  
 

What there isn’t is a lit of examples of a 5th round QB being good.  Like ever.  There are a handful.  But not many.  So that’s why the possibility of Howell being good is dismissed. 
 

But it COULD happen.  
 

Will it? 
 

unlikely.  
 

But if it does all of these national talking head idiots are going to look like fools and Vegas is going to have to pay a lot of overs….

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

All fair points I think most of us would agree with. I don't think there is a bandwagon to jump on at this point.

 

We start with the Cardinals and Broncos. I could see us getting off to a hot start and people starting to get excited - next two games are Bills and Eagles so I'd wait until after that stretch before we start warming up the engine ...

 

(If we lose the first two it could get ugly fast.)

 

Agree.  In the record prediction thread, I went 4-2 at the start.  i think the schedule starts off favorably.  But agree if they lose the first two, its a disaster but I don't expect that.  I am flying a long way for the Denver game so lol I am counting on a win. 

 

34 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Should I take this opportunity to point out PFF grades, especially OL grades. are assigned with a lot of thought but are as accurate as spinning a gigantic Wheel of Fortune style device to determine the outcome, the evaluators don’t know scheme or assignments, very few are former players or scouts, they are stats guys and GM wannabes who will amount to nothing more than pontificating talking heads?

 

Should I?

 

Oh, I think I will.

 

 

 

I think you are over the top with the PFF criticsims.

 

IMO you need to factor context when reading their grades.  I do so on the draft thread all the time.  Their grades are useful but you got to factor context.  Heck the PFF guys explain that well in their own takes, they aren't slaves to their own grades.  You see that well in their draft evaluations.  Their highest graded players aren't always the dudes they tout the most, etc.  They will explain, easier competition, better supporting cast are mitigating factors among other things. 

 

EVERY team subscribes and uses PFF.  It's not a clown show.  Rivera loves to quote PFF when it serves ones of his point.

 

They aren't the be all and end all but they also aren't a bunch of dummies.  Yeah they skewered Wentz and the deal we made last year and that made a lot of fans here sore.  But they weren't exactly wrong on that front, either.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.  In the record prediction thread, I went 4-2 at the start.  i think the schedule starts off favorably.  But agree if they lose the first two, its a disaster but I don't expect that.  I am flying a long way for the Denver game so lol I am counting on a win. 

 

I think you are over the top with the PFF criticsms.

 

IMO you need to factor context when reading their grades.  I do so on the draft thread all the time.  Their grades are useful but you got to factor context.  Heck the PFF guys explain that well in their own takes, they aren't slaves to their own grades.  You see that well in their draft evaluations.  Their highest graded players aren't always the dudes they tout the most, etc.

 

EVERY team subscribes and uses PFF.  It's not a clownshow.  Rivera loves to quote PFF when it serves ones of his point.

 

They aren't the be all and end all but they also aren't a bunch of dummies.  Yeah they skewered Wentz and the deal we made last year and that made a lot of fans here sore.  But they weren't exactly wrong on that front, either.

I’ve been out on PFF since … well a day when Cooley broke down film and challenged every grade to every player and said they had absolutely no idea what they were looking at.  He said they were so bad at grading film they didn’t have a clue that the player which was responsible for rge play and gave good grades based on lack of understanding of who was doing what.  That was a while ago.  Mid teens?  It hasn’t gotten any better.

 

Teams subscribe to them and they have some value with actual non-film related stats.  
 

The film study stuff is complete crap.  And Rivera looked like an absolute dope when quoting PFF grades to the media a couple years ago.

 

They stink.  And Chris Collinsworth is a self promoting know nothing hairdo which has made them worse.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This is fair but it’s also the wild card.

 

I don’t think it’s possible for a Howell to be worse than Wentz/[REDACTED]. 

What most people are saying is Howell is essentially a rookie and is going to struggle, and be inconsistent.  
 

That’s the safe take.  And also the most likely scenario. 
 

Very few allow for the possibility Howell could actually be really good.  And there are plenty of examples of inexperienced QBs being very good quickly.  
 

What there isn’t is a lit of examples of a 5th round QB being good.  Like ever.  There are a handful.  But not many.  So that’s why the possibility of Howell being good is dismissed. 
 

But it COULD happen.  
 

Will it? 
 

unlikely.  
 

But if it does all of these national talking head idiots are going to look like fools and Vegas is going to have to pay a lot of overs….

 

To combine Tucker's point and Schatz.

 

This fan base isn't unique as to touting hey our young guy is the right guy, trust us on this.  It's the nature of fans.    It's not just Commanders fans.  Atlanta fans touting Ridder.  GB fans selling hey we won't lose a beat with Love.  NE fans selling, hey Zappe killed it in this game or that game.

 

Typically these QBs nonetheless fail versus succeed.  And the national media in turn turns to brush off local fandom enthusiasm.  they want to see results before jumping on board on the train.  And they brush off local fan enthusiam because heck they expect local fan enthusiasm. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

27 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

For some reason I feel like the Bills might have a step back season this year, like their window closed a bit.  They still have Josh Allen, so they will be good.  (watch them go win the SB this year after I say that….)
 

I think Philly is going to come back to the pack a bit.  They got very lucky staying mostly healthy last year at key positions.  They’re still going to be good.  But as good? It’s tough to repeat that level over multiple seasons.  
 

We won’t be favored in either game, in fact we could be double digit underdogs in both.  
 

But I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat one of those teams if 2 things happen:

 

1. the defense is what we think it is. 
2. Howell is playing well.  Not just “better than Wentz” but well.

 

Is that going to happen?  Who knows.  But if it does they could win one of those games.  
 

 

We beat the Eagles last season - it could happen again but it would be a surprise. 
 

I think it’s really important that we win that first game at a minimum and probably the first two if we want to be playing meaningful games in December.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’ve been out on PFF since … well a day when Cooley broke down film and challenged every grade to every player and said they had absolutely no idea what they were looking at.  He said they were so bad at grading film they didn’t have a clue that the player which was responsible for rge play and gave good grades based on lack of understanding of who was doing what.  That was a while ago.  Mid teens?  It hasn’t gotten any better.

 

Teams subscribe to them and they have some value with actual non-film related stats.  
 

The film study stuff is complete crap.  And Rivera looked like an absolute dope when quoting PFF grades to the media a couple years ago.

 

They stink.  And Chris Collinsworth is a self promoting know nothing hairdo which has made them worse.  

 

Cooley's main criticism was about their secondary grades.  And ironically they acknowledge that their secondary grades are the most questionable.  I've talked about it plenty of times over the years.

 

They tout their O line grades as the best in the work they do.

 

I know we get sour when they don't agree with us.  But if you go through their grades they don't exactly look like a joke where you got great players with bad grades and bad grades for great players, etc. Their grades on the aggregate aren't wacky. 

 

As for agreement.  They thought Jonathan Allen was really good before it was cool.  they thought Heinicke sucked before some agreed.  They thought Curl was really good before it was cool, etc.

 

I don't always agree with them.  I've disagreed with them as to the draft on Stromberg and Martin among others.  But lets take Martin for example, I get why their grades aren't as high as i'd like because when he played outside corner, he wasn't good.  But I brushed that away because when he played nickle and FS he looked great and that's where the team is likely to play him which is a good example of factoring context.

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cooley's main criticism was about their secondary grades.  And ironically they acknowledge that their secondary grades are the most questionable.  I've talked about it plenty of times over the years.

 

They tout their O line grades as the best in the work they do.

 

I know we get sour when they don't agree with us.  But if you go through their grades they don't exactly look like a joke where you got great players with bad grades and bad grades for great players, etc. Their grades on the aggregate aren't wacky. 

 

As for agreement.  They thought Jonathan Allen was really good before it was cool.  they thought Heinicke sucked before some agreed.  They thought Curl was really good before it was cool, etc.

 

I don't always agree with them.  I've disagreed with them as to the draft on Stromberg and Martin among others.  But lets take Martin for example, I get why their grades aren't as high as i'd like because when he played outside corner, he wasn't good.  But I brushed that away because when he played nickle and FS he looked great and that's where the team is likely to play him which is a good example of factoring context.

 

Even the wheel of fortune hits the jackpot sometimes.  And bankrupt sometimes. PFF is the same.  
 

They’re film watchers see media analytic hacks for the lost part with cool accents and degrees in everything but football. 
 

You can continue to see value in them. Chris Collinsworth thanks you.

 

Im going to remain cynical since nothing I’ve seen for them for a decade proves they know more than I do.  And I admit I know Jack ****.

14 minutes ago, MartinC said:

We beat the Eagles last season - it could happen again but it would be a surprise. 
 

I think it’s really important that we win that first game at a minimum and probably the first two if we want to be playing meaningful games in December.

I have stated before if we lose either of the first  games the rebuild with EB as interim HC should start week 3 because at 1-1 or worse the chances of getting to 10 wins with their track record of starting slow is virtually non-existent.

And if you’re not getting to 10, you might as well fire Ron and everybody else and clear the deck for a new regime.  No reason to wait.  

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Even the wheel of fortune hits the jackpot sometimes.  And bankrupt sometimes. PFF is the same.  
 

They’re film watchers see media analytic hacks for the lost part with cool accents and degrees in everything but football. 
 

You can continue to see value in them. Chris Collinsworth thanks you.

 

Again, maybe you are a smarter evaulator than every other FO in the league and you find them to be fraud and the rest of the league misses what you see on that front as to PFF.   No way to know.  But its a good tool IMO if you watch the same player they evaluate and can factor context in their grades.  But every team in the NFL subscribes to them for a reason.

 

PFF from my experience is a tool that's useful.  I don't live and die with their overall grades.  Like I said, I've disagreed with them plenty.  But I find it useful in part because I don't have time to watch every game.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

Nobody in the football world is gonna bet on Howell.  That's the core reason everyone is down on us.  They see a coach in the midst of an ownership change going all in with a 5th round QB with one start to his name and it's just a bad bet for objective outsiders.

 

But the thing is, this defense is legitimately excellent.  Not just good with caveats, they are dominant.  That is getting overlooked in prognostications IMO.  With an upgraded secondary and a healthy Chase Young, they have a real shot at being a top 2 or 3 defense in the NFL.  And when one side of the ball is that good for your team, your floor is like 8 wins.

 

One thing the team didn't do this offseason, is get worse in any unit.  Offensive coaching got far better.  Quarterback could be better.  Offensive line didn't get worse.  Weapons are going to be better just off of the growth of Dotson and Robinson.  Special teams should be fine, we still have Reaves and Tress Way.  Defensive front will be better after getting two big players back from injury on the line.  Secondary probably got way better and we already had some good young players in the group.  Fourth year in Del Rio's system and Jamin Davis blooming as a third year Mike who has been through the wars.  They are going to murder teams and give the offense a lot of chances to figure things out and find a workable identity.

 

It's not like this team is likely to be worse than last year's team that went 8-8-1, and it's not like they were lucky last year to get that record.  Still had to go through the same damn gauntlet of rested teams with a back up QB and broken down OL as in 2021 last year.

 

If Howell can hold the job down this year, this team is due for 10-11 wins.

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Nobody in the football world is gonna bet on Howell.  That's the core reason everyone is down on us.  They see a coach in the midst of an ownership change going all in with a 5th round QB with one start to his name and it's just a bad bet for objective outsiders.

 

But the thing is, this defense is legitimately excellent.  Not just good with caveats, they are dominant.  That is getting overlooked in prognostications IMO.  With an upgraded secondary and a healthy Chase Young, they have a real shot at being a top 2 or 3 defense in the NFL.  And when one side of the ball is that good for your team, your floor is like 8 wins.

 

One thing the team didn't do this offseason, is get worse in any unit.  Offensive coaching got far better.  Quarterback could be better.  Offensive line didn't get worse.  Weapons are going to be better just off of the growth of Dotson and Robinson.  Special teams should be fine, we still have Reaves and Tress Way.  Defensive front will be better after getting two big players back from injury on the line.  Secondary probably got way better and we already had some good young players in the group.  Fourth year in Del Rio's system and Jamin Davis blooming as a third year Mike who has been through the wars.  They are going to murder teams and give the offense a lot of chances to figure things out and find a workable identity.

 

It's not like this team is likely to be worse than last year's team that went 8-8-1, and it's not like they were lucky last year to get that record.  Still had to go through the same damn gauntlet of rested teams with a back up QB and broken down OL as in 2021 last year.

 

If Howell can hold the job down this year, this team is due for 10-11 wins.

 

While i am more down on the O line than you.  I do agree with this.  

 

I think the issue is we had a soft schedule last year.  This one looks tough.  Some contend that you never know how hard or soft a scheudle is until it plays out.  I do agree with that to a minor extent.  There is a luck element to it.  Injuries and some teams are hot and cold whenever you face them.  Though I'll say, the season before, the projection was it was a tough schedule.  And last season the projection was it was an easy schedule.  Both thoughts turned out to be true.

 

If we had the same schedule as last year, I'd project them at 9-8 or maybe even 10-7.  But considering the schedule I expect a similar record from last year -- better team than last year (not by a lot but by half a peg) but facing a tougher schedule.   

Edited July 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Simmsy]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

For some reason I feel like the Bills might have a step back season this year, like their window closed a bit.  They still have Josh Allen, so they will be good.  (watch them go win the SB this year after I say that….)
 

I think Philly is going to come back to the pack a bit.  They got very lucky staying mostly healthy last year at key positions.  They’re still going to be good.  But as good? It’s tough to repeat that level over multiple seasons.  
 

We won’t be favored in either game, in fact we could be double digit underdogs in both.  
 

But I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat one of those teams if 2 things happen:

 

1. the defense is what we think it is. 
2. Howell is playing well.  Not just “better than Wentz” but well.

 

Is that going to happen?  Who knows.  But if it does they could win one of those games.  
 

 

 

Quit stealing my brain! This is how I feel in a nut shell, I've already said the Bills are trending down and the Eagles got lucky last year in so many ways that I can't see them repeating that success this year (not saying they won't be good, but they won't be as good). There are going to be games that we're "supposed" to win that we won't and there are going to be games that we're supposed to "lose" that we win, but no team on our schedule legit scares me. Even the games that I don't think we will win are games that I feel we have a chance to grab a win. 

 

I just don't get why everyone is down on us, it doesn't make sense. You want to say we will be average, give or take a few, that at least makes sense. Seeing as how all these analysts do is take last year's results and apply them to this year, we should at least be mid, right? I don't understand how all these other teams can get a new QB and they're going to be great! Us, not so much. Another team hires a new OC, they're going to be amazing! He's going to turn it all around. We hire a two time, SB winning OC and people are debating if he has even met Patrick MaHomes. Do these sports experts and talking heads even look at training camp? How can you look at training camp and think Howell is going to be worse than Heini or Wentz? Even if he's the same a Taylor, we should get at least eight victories. Why is it when pundits have to speculate, fill in the gaps and guess about our upcoming season, its all negative. Every other team in our division, the speculation is positive. Tired of all this, lets start the season and shut these fools up.

[Wyvern]

Assume it's possible that the newly revamped O-line may still have difficulties to provide reliable pass protection and Howell is forced to scramble even more than planned (and maybe still get hit a lot).  Looking at what happened to other scrambling QBs (Murray, Fields, etc) in 2022, there's a possibility that Howell might have to miss a game or two.

 

My question is how well does Brissett fit with Bieniemy's offensive game-plan?  I don't think Brissett has the same scrambling potential as Howell, but might have a quicker release.  Has anyone seen how well Brissett is getting used to a new scheme with fewer reps than the current QB-1?

 

I ask, because this might have an impact on Washington's W-L record, and any playoff chances.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Simmsy said:

 

Quit stealing my brain! This is how I feel in a nut shell, I've already said the Bills are trending down and the Eagles got lucky last year in so many ways that I can't see them repeating that success this year (not saying they won't be good, but they won't be as good). There are going to be games that we're "supposed" to win that we won't and there are going to be games that we're supposed to "lose" that we win, but no team on our schedule legit scares me. Even the games that I don't think we will win are games that I feel we have a chance to grab a win. 

 

I just don't get why everyone is down on us, it doesn't make sense. You want to say we will be average, give or take a few, that at least makes sense. Seeing as how all these analysts do is take last year's results and apply them to this year, we should at least be mid, right? I don't understand how all these other teams can get a new QB and they're going to be great! Us, not so much. Another team hires a new OC, they're going to be amazing! He's going to turn it all around. We hire a two time, SB winning OC and people are debating if he has even met Patrick MaHomes. Do these sports experts and talking heads even look at training camp? How can you look at training camp and think Howell is going to be worse than Heini or Wentz? Even if he's the same a Taylor, we should get at least eight victories. Why is it when pundits have to speculate, fill in the gaps and guess about our upcoming season, its all negative. Every other team in our division, the speculation is positive. Tired of all this, lets start the season and shut these fools up.

 

O line and schedule might be raining on the Howell parade some.  Atlanta for example has a killer O line with potentially a killer running game.   The Packers have a good O line, etc.

 

While I and some others here criicism of the work this team has done on the O line this off season isn't well received by give or take 5 people -- our take is by a mile the consensus view on it.

 

I think the other factor is this is rodeo number a zillion with this team with a new QB.  With the zillionth narrative that this time, we got it right.  They can easily do a Netflix 10 part series about all the comedy of errors at the QB spot alone with this franchise.  So we don't earn the benefit of the doubt. 

 

Ron specifically hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt on that issue.  He can all he wants for example defiantly defend the Wentz trade and said he did the evaluation himself and studied the anaytics which he said.  Some of Wentz's analytics ironically sucked where in total it was mixed.   So I had no idea what he was talking about -- I guess QBR?   But it just makes him look out of touch now.  Ron is also ranked near the bottom of the league in name that national coaching ranking poll, no matter who does it.

 

So a history of bad QB choices, a coach that isn't highly regarded for his acumen (though is highly regarded for his character), some say the worst O line in the league or close enough, and one of the toughest schedules in the NFL -- and bam the negativty comes.

 

But I do agree, they go too far.  While its perfectly in play for the offense to suck.  And while I agree with those that say Howell > Heinicke-Wentz -- I do get others from a distance say, maybe so, but will see especially with that O line.  the defense is clearly for real and should prevent them from sucking.  To me the team screams mediocre.  But to me that's the ceiling versus the floor.  The football outsiders guy saw it the same way.  So not everyone is negative.   There are some in the national mix who think Ron could pull another so so season out of his hat. 

 

My biggest push back on the national media would be I get you don't think that highly about Rivera and have questions about that team.  But Rivera doesn't suck.  He is really close to the national punchline about Jeff Fisher.  Fisher didn't suck.  Fisher was mediocre to a tee.  He lived in 8-8 land.  If you digest Rivera he's sort of the same thing -- he's a cooler guy than Fisher but he's similar as to net results.   High floor.  Low ceiling.   I used to push back on that idea some. 

 

But if this season goes the way i think it goes -- I concede Ron deserves that reputation.   I've defended the dude a lot and I stick by most of the points over the years which were mainly he's the best we can do under Dan.   But I'll back off of defending him on the mediocre label if they indeed end up medicore this season.  If it goes down like that, i was wrong, that label does indeed fit. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise