Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

Re: the poll above ^^^

 

The high level takeaway was made into the headline, but the poll itself has a ton of interesting shtuff...

 

Here are a few quick ones:

 

 

 

This speaks to what I've said before: that the reasoning behind the responses people give in polls is wildly different from the reasoning people vote the way they vote (if they actually do vote). "To show support against charges" is the type of reasoning you give for selecting Trump in a poll...With polls, you don't need another reason than that. But people are far less likely to actually drive to a polling place and stand in line for hours to give Trump the most powerful office in the world...simply show support against the charges. Hell, they can show support on Twitter from the comfort of their couch lol...

 

And that's quite a large percentage of people who say they haven't considered the charges against Trump when deciding to vote for him. That could indicate a number of different things when it comes to actual voting in November. But I imagine some will only interpret it as people who won't consider the charges when deciding to vote for Trump, no matter what. The closer we get to the actual election day, the more people from this ground will indeed start considering them.

 

And hell, 23% of likely Trump voters already have concerns about the charges...that's significant. Again, 10 months out from the actual election you can compartmentalize those concerns and just keep supporting "your guy," especially when it comes to answering polls. But make no mistake, those concerns are still there...and over the upcoming months those concerns will be ready to rear their heads at the most unexpected moments and over the most unexpected things.

 

So that's a whopping 65% of likely Republican voters who either have concerns about the charges or just haven't been thinking about them--yet.

 

 

 

 

The others went about as expected, but the two I highlighted (to me) where the GOP's weaknesses are. So yeah, keep harping on abortion, guys...and trot out those videos of Boebert strutting on stage and telling the audience that there should NOT be a separation between church and state. Republican voters love it, just love it lol...I was, though, kinda surprised that "Makes liberals angry" was as close as it was...I expected it to be more like the "woke" percentages lol. Also, it looks like the constant "rigged election" talk has been wearing thin on GOP voters, since only about half of them want candidates to keep harping on it.

 

 

 

 

So among likely Republican primary voters, 63% of them think DeSantis either might beat Biden or feel he has no shot at beating Biden...and 69% of Repub voters think the same things about Haley. That's a glaring lack of confidence in two candidates that the poll says are leading Biden among likely voters lol. That lack of confidence, if it continues, could suppress GOP turnout at the polls should Trump find himself otherwise unable to run (not on the ballot, in jail, both--my preference lol).

 

Imagine those same percentages if it were about parachutes: 64% of voters either think that the parachute might open, or are positive it won't open. To paraphrase BIll Burr: "Then, **** it, I ain't jumpin'..."...or in this case, "I ain't votin'..."

[The Evil Genius]

I guarendamntee you when it's just Biden v Trump, Biden is actively campaigning with the full might of Obama behind him this time, and we are more into Trump trials that these polls will look quite different. 

 

Polling right now is really meaningless.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

Another one:

 

 

 

 

 

You can't analyze what these results mean unless you understand what each respondant "expected" from Biden. Because if, say, a Republican voter expected a poor performance from Biden while a Democratic voter expected a good performance by Biden, they could both choose "About what was expected" depending on how they view his job so far.

 

Put another way, If someone expected Biden to get 100 out of 100 on a test and he got 80, then he did "Less than expected"...if someone else expected Biden to get a 60 out of 100 and he got an 80, then he did "More than expected"--even though he got the same grade both times.

Edited January 14 by Califan007 The Constipated

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

Lastly, this one jumped out at me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats can rightly point to a strong economy under Biden, and a dysfunctional democracy and a do-nothing government under House GOP control.

 

Send out political ads saying "You've seen Republican ineptitude in action in the House: in-fighting, backstabbing, sham hearings that go nowhere and fizzle out, members holding up photos of my son's genitals as if they are what the country cares about right now, 27 different Speaker nominations with seemingly never-ending votes, the constant threat of government shutdowns. It's an embarrassing circus, on display for the entire world. You deserve better. We all deserve better, and we all should require far better than they are capable of."

[Larry]

5 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

Lastly, this one jumped out at me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats can rightly point to a strong economy under Biden, and a dysfunctional democracy and a do-nothing government under House GOP control

 

Both groups should vote Dem. 

 

But then, Group Two is in denial about that, too. 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[GhostofSparta]

3 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

Haley fares best against Biden as GOP contenders hold national leads https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-fares-best-against-biden-2024-presidential-election-poll/

 

While Republican primary voters think Donald Trump is their best shot in November, it's Nikki Haley who right now holds a bigger lead over Joe Biden than either Trump or Ron DeSantis in potential head-to-head match-ups.

 

In fact, as the GOP presidential nomination kicks off, Trump, Haley and DeSantis all have at least a slight national edge on President Biden right now, were they to emerge as his challenger. (Haley and DeSantis have tougher roads to get that chance, of course, since they trail Trump substantially in the race for the nomination.) 

I'm not going to discount the ability of Republican voters (or "independent" voters who always vote R but will occasionally vote for a Democrat running unopposed for local Coroner or something) to ignore everything to just pull the lever for the R candidate in any election.

 

However.

 

Call me skeptical that there won't be a not-insignificant number of Republicans who, in a Haley vs. Biden matchup, might finally find themselves hesitating to vote for a candidate who is:

 

1. A woman

2. Not white

3. A children of immigrants (she's already started facing her own "Birther"-style backlash from the nervous part of the MAGA crowd)

And

4. Has a funny sounding name

 

I think the normal "Better Red than Dead!" type of Republicans who can normally ignore every single red flag because the candidate is almost always a white man. Or occasionally a woman, as long as she's white. Nikki being "Not Donald Trump" is already gonna cost her a chunk of the MAGA cult that would affect literally any candidate that isn't named Donald Trump. I do find it interesting as a former Republican that 2 of the 4 top candidates are Nikki and Vivek, but I also recognize that this isn't a real primary and they realistically have no shot. Call me a cynic, but I think if something happens to Trump (jail, death, whatever), that the party is still likely to give Ronny the nomination. And Vivek is kind of a joke candidacy anyway, he's just trying to raise his profile for financial gain....but a lot of people think that's what Trump did in 2016 and he still won anyway, so I'm not discounting Vivek having some type of future if he wants it.

 

I know Nikki was the Governor of SC. So I know she can win in the Deep South despite all my reservations.

 

But.

 

I also think overcoming enough "Good Old Boy Bigotry" in your own deep red state to become governor is a little easier than overcoming enough GOBB in critical swing states to win the Electoral College. I may be proven wrong, but I think there's a very real reason to Big Guns funding the Republican party haven't just gone 100% to Nikki already, and I suspect it's because they know that they've cultivated enough misogyny and racism in their hardcore base to make it very difficult for anyone who isn't white (and probably a man, but even that can be overcome with an enthusiastic enough "Pick Me!" woman candidate) to win nationally when your margins in key areas are already razor-thin at best that you can't afford to lose any of your voters to their own biases. I mean, people are still arguing just how big a role Covid deaths played in costing Trump a very close (EC wise) election in 2020 or what role those deaths played in the disappointing (for Republicans) 2022 midterms.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

Poll: Nearly half of Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821

 

Most likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump in the general election if he’s the GOP nominee, regardless of the candidate they’re supporting on caucus night.

 

That is, except supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, with nearly half of them — 43% — saying they’d vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.

 

If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the general election in November, would you vote for him, vote for Joe Biden, vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or vote for some other third-party candidate?

 

[Fergasun]

That's crazy because I've also seen that Haley attracts Independent voters, and even some Dems.  I really do think the GOP would have a better chance with Nikki rather than Biden. 

 

We haven't recognized it yet, but I think the Trump era may hearken a time where we are upset with incumbent President's across the board.  At the same time, I haven't seen polling that indicates that Gavin or Kamala would be stronger.   Biden certainly attracted a more moderate Independent and potential folks unhappy with Trump as well.  Maybe it's just these two guys and our general post COVID politics.  

 

I'm already done with 2024 election, but it could be wild.  We could see something like Trump President, Democratic House, GOP Senate.... 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

38 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

That's crazy because I've also seen that Haley attracts Independent voters, and even some Dems.  I really do think the GOP would have a better chance with Nikki rather than Biden.

 

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Captain Wiggles]

🤪

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[Cooked Crack]

Not ideal if you're trying to win a Republican primary

[Momma There Goes That Man]

21 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

You can't analyze what these results mean unless you understand what each respondant "expected" from Biden. Because if, say, a Republican voter expected a poor performance from Biden while a Democratic voter expected a good performance by Biden, they could both choose "About what was expected" depending on how they view his job so far.

this is what I’ve said about the “is the country going in the right direction” polling. I voted for Biden and I’d still answer that No because of all the **** happening with the other major political party and the aggressive push toward fascism but in the poll result it would be used as a knock against Biden

[LadySkinsFan]

The pressure of Trump's trials are starting to show. All of them, civil and criminal. He's going to really lose it when the appeals court then the supremes rule against him regarding immunity. So all of this trials can go forward. Even Judge Cannon will have to proceed with the classified documents case. Even if some trials don't happen before the election, Trump won't win that because some voters will either sit home or write in someone else or vote third party if they get on ballots. 

 

It's almost over for him. 

5 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

this is what I’ve said about the “is the country going in the right direction” polling. I voted for Biden and I’d still answer that No because of all the **** happening with the other major political party and the aggressive push toward fascism but in the poll result it would be used as a knock against Biden

 

That's where I'd differ and respond in the positive because regardless of the Fascists and Christian Nationalists trying to take over, the courts are blocking them, the Biden administration is going about their business of administering the laws passed before the House became a **** show. That's our country going in the right direction.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

23 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

this is what I’ve said about the “is the country going in the right direction” polling. I voted for Biden and I’d still answer that No because of all the **** happening with the other major political party and the aggressive push toward fascism but in the poll result it would be used as a knock against Biden

 

Exactly exactly exactly...

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

1 hour ago, LadySkinsFan said:

The pressure of Trump's trials are starting to show. All of them, civil and criminal. He's going to really lose it when the appeals court then the supremes rule against him regarding immunity. So all of this trials can go forward. Even Judge Cannon will have to proceed with the classified documents case. Even if some trials don't happen before the election, Trump won't win that because some voters will either sit home or write in someone else or vote third party if they get on ballots. 

 

It's almost over for him. 

 

That's where I'd differ and respond in the positive because regardless of the Fascists and Christian Nationalists trying to take over, the courts are blocking them, the Biden administration is going about their business of administering the laws passed before the House became a **** show. That's our country going in the right direction.

 

Ironically, your response pretty much makes his overall point lol...that "going in the right/wrong direction" can't be assigned to one meaning, so we can't derive much of value from that polling question.

 

For me, I focus on the "going" part...as in, where have we been headed compared to where we used to be. And before:

 

- Roe was the law of the land

- Election results weren't trying to be 100% controlled and determined by Republican state legislatures instead of by voters

- Death threats to politicians and judges weren't the norm

- The words "groomer" and "pedophile" weren't being shouted at teachers for simply displaying a rainbow in their classroom

- People understood saying "white power" out loud and with pride was out of bounds, and the few who did usually were bald and had swastikas tattooed on their necks

- Conspiracy theories were fringe elements of society and not the foundation of significant political platforms

- Congress didn't have 6 different Speakers of the House in a 3 week span

- We weren't trying to figure out if a man who used the office of the President to spread massive disinformation for the sole purpose of overthrowing our democracy, should be officially allowed to try and do it again...because "before," no one had actually tried

 

So for me, it's a bit like if my house was on fire and I was using the garden hose to put out the flames...if someone walked by and asked me "How are things going," I mean, well, yeah, I'm putting out the flames--but my damn house is on fire lol. But there is also a list of things that ARE going better than where we were in the recent past, much better...and you mentioned some of the huge ones.

Edited January 15 by Califan007 The Constipated

[Fergasun]

There's so much mis/dis information pushed out there to everyone.  We hosted our daughters boyfrirnd last night and politically, thought he he's just so MAGA -- but he's actually gone the full Q.  

 

He mentioned "deep state", I asked him to define it... "it's the wealthy Blackrock people that control everything."  Oh, does that include the CIA?  "Unelected men in suits tell the President what to do.  Trump doesn't listen to them."

 

We got into immigration a bit.  He looks at people as a function of economic output and even with low unemployment, still thinks immigtants are taking American jobs.  I basically explainec we can have a secure border right now if there was an amnesty deal again.  Even he admitted he had classmates who didn't have legal status. 

 

He talked about Trump's econony. I pointed to Obama, and with Biden I discussed the shock to system COVID was rather than policy driven. 

 

The coup de gras was the Trump trials.  He said (of course) "there was somethimg off with 2020".  So all the other elections were fine, including 2016?  "Political witchhunt" is how he described the January 6 trial.  When I explained to him Trump's scheme to replace electoral college voters he admitted, "I hadn't heard that.  oh, I need to look into that some more, I am going to do research."  He started talking about Nikki Haley being funded by Democratic donors and essentially being a secret globalist democrat.  

 

I guess the other coup de gras was talking about Hillary (and others) being satanic pedophiles, or at least they were taking the blood from young kids and getting transfusions (on Epstein's Island). He dropped some fancy term for aomething at the end of chromosomes.   Also, Obama was on the Epstein flight logs and so was Hillary (why would Bill Clinton be on there but not her?). I dunno, maybe because she was serving the government as Senator and Secretary of State.   Oh... the full Q or whatever Q has morphed into

 

I guess wherever he gets his information and research is where Aaron Rodgers does.  I suppose it's also not limited to teenage men, as I have a female friend in her 30s who is full into this BS as well. 

 

It's like some weird religion where our public, and at least somewhat transparent government is just one big layer of conspiracy piled onto another.  There's some weird obsession with human trafficing, conspiracy theories (9/11  being an inside job?), great men like Hitler, and glorification of the great Greek and Roman empires.  

[Cooked Crack]

Good decision. Democrats really love Elon Musk and Bill Ackman

[Captain Wiggles]

13 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

We hosted our daughters boyfrirnd last night and politically, thought he he's just so MAGA -- but he's actually gone the full Q.  

 

[Jabbyrwock]

39 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

He dropped some fancy term for aomething at the end of chromosomes. 

 

Telomeres.

 

Basically repetitive bits at the end of the chromosome.  Every time ur cells divide, they get a bit shorter.  So naturally people have locked on to the idea that its an "aging clock"...though obviously the process doesnt boil down to one simple thing like that.  Any way, the "lore" thats developed around them is that if you can somehow stop the telomere from shortening, you can stop aging.

 

I recall a study, that Im too lazy to find, that indicated a compound in red wine helps with telomeres.  Obviously you'd have to drink an unreasonable amount to get enough to make a difference...as a Commanders fan my response to this was "challenge accepted".  I suspect the liver damage has offset the telomere gains.

 

What this has to do with Q these days...no idea.  Not gonna have that in my google history either.  I'll speculate drinking babies blood or sone such does something with telomeres in their fantasy world.

Edited January 15 by Jabbyrwock

[Cooked Crack]

1 hour ago, Fergasun said:

There's so much mis/dis information pushed out there to everyone.  We hosted our daughters boyfrirnd last night and politically, thought he he's just so MAGA -- but he's actually gone the full Q.  

Is your daughter into Q too because this would be a deal breaker in a partner for me?