Renegade7 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said: I want trump as the nominee. I think he is the easiest to beat of the bunch. He would do the most downballot damage, for sure...but cancer is cancer..."look at all the weight I lost"...is not something you typically brag about during chemo... Speaking of chemo...I know a lot of people have no fn shame, but there's part of me that hope some folks do feel like they have egg in their face rushing head first into looking for a scandals when Austin basically wasn't ready to talk about having prostate cancer yet. This **** might kill him, hoping for best for him... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 hours ago, Fergasun said: Christie needs to drop out. Christie claims he wants to stop Trump, yet he is taking 12 percent of votes at the moment. His voters could likely go to Haley. This is in NH. Iowa... if Trump doesn't win by 20+ he will look weak. So in my own world DeSantis and Christie drop out and throw their political weight behind Haley. Because I think there is a strong argument on the GOP to dump Trump. Good Allahpundit article today on this: https://news.yahoo.com/offer-chris-christie-000716433.html 5 hours ago, FootballZombie said: I think that a Biden v Trump straight up election would be a massive beatdown in Biden's favor. I'm pretty sure we've had this discussion before, but define "massive beatdown." From an electoral votes perspective, I see this election as closer than 2016 or 2020, where the winner will get 300 electoral votes at most. I think Biden wins the popular vote, but by a lesser amount than in 2020. Maybe close to what Hillary did in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootballZombie Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 55 minutes ago, hail2skins said: I'm pretty sure we've had this discussion before, but define "massive beatdown." From an electoral votes perspective, I see this election as closer than 2016 or 2020, where the winner will get 300 electoral votes at most. I think Biden wins the popular vote, but by a lesser amount than in 2020. Maybe close to what Hillary did in 2016. bigger gap in both electoral college and popular vote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Turnout will drop from 2020 and probably be closer to 2016. If Biden wins, he wins the popular vote but probably only barely cracks 270. If Trump wins, Biden still wins popular vote but Trump probably gets close to 300. I think 3rd party: West, Kennedy, No Labels will be a factor in this election. They will either tip key states to Trump or Biden or they outright win a state or two, deny either candidate 270 and sending election to House. This election will be unlike any election before and you thought 1/6 violence was bad; wait for election and post election violence this year. Blood will be spilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, FootballZombie said: bigger gap in both electoral college and popular vote If 50% to 60% are tuned out to the political noise (as pundits claim) than I can't wait to see how they take the Trump trials, channeling Hitler and loser, whining attitude. If we have significant GOPers saying "I am voting for Biden and not Trump" it could turn into a landslide. At the same time, polls showing Trump besting Biden by 8 in Michigan - dropped today just scare me. I get the sense the "Abandon Biden" movement being pushed in Michigan (and other places) is a right-wing dark money funded movement. "Lets pay some Muslim leaders (who legit are unhappy about Biden and Gaza) to tweet and organize against Biden (even if that leads to worse policy for Muslims". That makes more sense in explaining why Muslim leaders would want to throw the election to Biden. Sure, maybe they are conservative enough that his anti-abortion and anti-LGBT are attractive. But his foreign policy is not, especially when Trump will be more pro-Israel. It really sucks that I have to double think about every website that I read... "who is publishing this." People with 9 to 5s don't have the energy and bandwidth to push out the politcal dreck I read some places. Tea party chat GPT. It's like we he thousands of Rush Limbaughs hiveminding people. If I see Biden get attacked by Trump over Afghanistan... gonna be livid. You didn't really have the balls to rip that bandaid off (when even Obama was pushing to leave, but couldn't). Trump saying, "I hope our economy crashes in 12 months." Michael Steele is calling that ssss out. Now we get the old "Biden is dividing us!! How dare he!" Playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry.Randolphe Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 From talking to my Muslim friends, they just aren't planning to vote in the next election because of Biden's stupid foreign policy decisions. Low turnout benefits Trump and I think that's why you're seeing him +8 in Michigan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootballZombie Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) 2 hours ago, Fergasun said: Trump and his endorsed candidates have been drastically under-performing in every election for the past 6 years. That's not gonna suddenly change. Trump is getting blown out in Qtr by Qtr fundraising by Biden. Last Quarter saw Biden raise almost double what Trump did Trump is also paying his legal fees thru his campaign. Fees that are set to drastically grow moving forward. Makes the earnings disparity even greater. Speaking of finances its important to also follow spending. Only one guy was actively primarying until recently, which means Trump has been spending while Biden has been saving. Biden spent 1.1 mil in Q2. 12.7 in Q3... Trump spent more than that on his legals fees let alone campaign stuff, and keep in mind he is making less. If current pathways continue, by the time the republican primary ends Biden may have the financial liquidity to outspend his opponent by margins never before seen in a presidential election. The obvious hot button issue will be abortion rights and that drastically favors democrats. It has also dominated every election its been a part of since the repeal of Roe v Wade, even in red states. Democrats can't control the course of a Republican primary, but you can bet your buttons they will make that the central focus of a national election. Dude might be in prison before the election. Dude might be disqualified from even holding office before the election. I don't put a lot of stock in polls a year before an election, especially one where only one party is even primarying and spending a disparity of the money. In the mean time we have actual election results and data we can look at and see the disparity on display. And looking at that data, there is no way anybody should be feeling good about a guy who is facing a six year rebuff by voters, is getting substantially out fundraised, with massive mounting legal fees and/or punishments and the possibility of getting disqualified. All that spells is a one way course to Trump getting absolutely taken behind the woodshed in a natty election. The only possible argument against it is the total unforeseen, like health issues or economic collapse that could criple Biden's standing, and those things are rightfully not taken into consideration in a discussion such as this. Without them, as things are today, we are looking at a beat down... if Trump can even limp his way to the nomination and ballot. If things hold as is, Biden enters the presidential election with substantially more money in the bank while earning more liquidity at a near 2:1 clip while Trump has to send half his campain paycheck to legal defense... good luck. Edited January 10 by FootballZombie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 hours ago, Barry.Randolphe said: From talking to my Muslim friends, they just aren't planning to vote in the next election because of Biden's stupid foreign policy decisions. Low turnout benefits Trump and I think that's why you're seeing him +8 in Michigan Hilarious. Fwiw I just looked. Estimated Muslim population in Michigan is 2.5% of total population there. That's not insignificant but if that population chooses to empower a fascist who has promised to deport them Day 1 over a sitting President who they disagree with over Palestine, then so be it. Sometimes you can't just help people. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 hours ago, Barry.Randolphe said: From talking to my Muslim friends, they just aren't planning to vote in the next election because of Biden's stupid foreign policy decisions. Low turnout benefits Trump and I think that's why you're seeing him +8 in Michigan Biden has had some pretty bad foreign policy. and I like blinken but ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, ixcuincle said: Biden has had some pretty bad foreign policy. Such as? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samy316 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) 37 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Such as? This Gaza-Israeli conflict is doing damage to his support with the under 30 crowd. They don't like the fact that our foreign policy is basically giving Israel a blank check to do as much damage as humanly possible to Gaza. Maybe the wine and cheese moderate version of the Democratic Party can hold their nose at what's going on, but younger people are definitely NOT. I don't know what Biden can do to turn his numbers around with the Muslim base/younger Gen-Z, but it's going to take more to get those people to vote than to just blindly hold their nose and "vote blue, no matter who" at the Ballot box in November. He's going to have to do more than "Orange Man bad, democracy is on the line". He should be actively trying to get his economic successes and policies to the forefront. He's actually been very good when it comes to job numbers, inflation and infrastructure. What he's been horrific at is actually promoting his wins. The Dem party is just horrific when it comes to tooting its own horn. Let me reiterate this one more time: I think that Biden is going to win if he runs against Trump. Trump can't beat Biden at this current state, because he's lost way more voters since 2016 than he's gained. The only way that Trump can keep it close with Biden, is if the vote is suppressed (especially the younger vote). If the younger crowd doesn't show up to vote like 2020, it's going to be closer than it should be. If Michigan is a toss-up, or goes to Trump, he has a legit shot at winning the EC. Trump will probably lose the popular vote by 8-10 million, but the EC is one way for him to keep it within striking distance. Those voters in Michigan (an area that has a large Arab population) is a lot more important than people realize. You can't just write off millions of Arabs in Michigan who are frustrated or take them for granted. Biden should be listening to their concerns (especially in an election year). Edited January 10 by samy316 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I dont believe Biden had given anyone a blank check on Palenstine/Gaza. But really that's on them then. If Muslims and/or the under 30 crowd think there is no difference between Biden and Trump, they cannot be helped and they deserve the blowback if or when Trump comes to power again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samy316 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) 3 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: I dont believe Biden had given anyone a blank check on Palenstine/Gaza. But really that's on them then. If Muslims and/or the under 30 crowd think there is no difference between Biden and Trump, they cannot be helped and they deserve the blowback if or when Trump comes to power again. There's that arrogance again by the moderate Dem wing. You can't just brush off people's frustrations, and tell them to piss off if they don't like what's going on. Instead of telling voters that they deserve what's coming to them with a possible Trump 2nd term, Dems should be out there telling voters why Biden is the best choice. Biden's campaign can't be "I'm less horrible and actually sane, compared to the other guy". He's got to give younger voters a reason to show up at the ballot box. This is why nobody likes Biden-Trump II. No one wants Trump back in office again (especially me). The Democratic Party shouldn't be focusing all its attention on Trump and how horrible he is. They should be focusing in on how great Biden is, and how better off we'd be if he gets a 2nd term. Edited January 10 by samy316 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I said it before I'll say it again. Democrats are beatable and the poll numbers look awful for Biden. Do not take this election for granted. People already saying there's no way Biden loses or that this election is over, it's not. Trump has a disturbing command of the GOP even with all the scandals and continues to have a grip on the nomination I've seen this song and dance before...there was no way Hillary was going to lose to Trump. Just ignore all the rust belt and assume you have the presidency. Then look what happened. I'm far from a Republican stooge but I'm a realist moderate with no blinders on. And what I'm seeing is very disturbing for the Dems. They need to step up their game, and fast. Don't take nothing for granted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, samy316 said: There's that arrogance again by the moderate Dem wing. You can't just brush off people's frustrations, and tell them to piss off if they don't like what's going on. Instead of telling voters that they deserve what's coming to them with a possible Trump 2nd term, Dems should be out there telling voters why Biden is the best choice. Biden's campaign can't be "I'm less horrible and actually sane, compared to the other guy". He's got to give younger voters a reason to show up at the ballot box. This is why nobody likes Biden-Trump II. No one wants Trump back in office again (especially me). The Democratic Party shouldn't be focusing all its attention on Trump and how horrible he is. They should be focusing in on how great Biden is, and how better off we'd be if he gets a 2nd term. It's not arrogance (and I'm a California liberal tyvm). Biden and Trump are not equals in a zero sum game. Choosing Trump (or simply not voting) is 100x worse for any minority (religious or racial). If people cannot make the binary choice between Biden and Trump, then they cannot be helped. Fwiw, i do wonder strategically what bending to the whims of roughly 1.1% of the US population on this one issue means for the 1.9% of the US Jewish population? Is that even discussed in DC? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samy316 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) 12 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: It's not arrogance (and I'm a California liberal tyvm). Biden and Trump are not equals in a zero sum game. Choosing Trump (or simply not voting) is 100x worse for any minority (religious or racial). If people cannot make the binary choice between Biden and Trump, then they cannot be helped. Fwiw, i do wonder strategically what bending to the whims of roughly 1.1% of the US population on this one issue means for the 1.9% of the US Jewish population? Is that even discussed in DC? We know they're not equals. That's very clear. If they're not equals, then Biden should have no problems wiping Trump off the mat right? Except that that's not the case. I'm seeing the same mistakes being made and the same blasé attitude about Trump that I saw in 2016, and we know how that turned out. The same dismissiveness that you have about the Arab population in Michigan, is the same kind of dismissiveness that Hilary had about Mich/Wisc/Penn, and look how that turned out. This should be a layup for Biden and the Dems, but they're turning a layup into a halfcourt shot blindfolded, and that's not smart or strategic. By the way, Biden might actually be lucky that Trump is probably the frontrunner for the GOP. If GOP voters smartened up and nominated someone more sane like Haley or DeSantis, Biden probably loses to both. Trump is literally the ONLY candidate Biden can beat (barely). Edited January 10 by samy316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) Fwiw I'm dismissive to all religions these days. I'm not agnostic or atheist, I just chose a long time ago to not let my religious choices define who I am or who I support. So I do admittedly have problems understanding people who still do. You likely are 💯 on this issue. Doesn't mean that I'm wrong though that the choice is binary and that Americans who choose to not vote due to a perceived difference with Biden over 1 issue in an area outside of the US aren't asking for repercussions when Trump gets elected. The karma is going to be instant. Shouldn't they worry about that more? Also, what should Biden do on this issue? What specifically can he do to win back the perceived loss of young/Muslim voters? Edit..without losing the 2 to 3 million more in American Jewish population? Edited January 10 by The Evil Genius 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) I will say that Biden has moved the US in ways that hadn't happened before and that Trump wouldn't that can help Palestinians. The banning of some Israeli settlers is a pretty big move. The direct calling out of the Israeli politicians that are talking about depopulating and resettling Gazans so that Israel can claim the land is good. I don't think a Trump administration would have done either of those things. They've also done some other things that Trump wouldn't do that long term might benefit Palestinians. Maybe they need to spend some time talking about those things. I do think this election is going to be close, especially at the electoral college level. But I'm also not sure there is much the Democrats can do about it at this point in time. ~40% of the population has decided to reject reality. That isn't something that can easily/quickly be fixed and certainly not by somebody on the other "side". I have a hard time blaming the Democrats over where we are or that they might lose this election or that Hillary lost in 2016. (Though I will again point that the idea that Hillary loss in 2016 is because she "ignored" certain states isn't well supported by the data.) Edited January 10 by PeterMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 38 minutes ago, PeterMP said: I do think this election is going to be close, especially at the electoral college level. But I'm also not sure there is much the Democrats can do about it at this point in time. ~40% of the population has decided to reject reality. That isn't something that can easily/quickly be fixed and certainly not by somebody on the other "side". I have a hard time blaming the Democrats over where we are or that they might lose this election or that Hillary lost in 2016. Very reasonable assessment. I would've expected Trump as a former president to be competitive in the primary, but not dominating it in the fashion he is ( if you believe the polls). And it won't take many votes to switch due to how inflation impacted folks plus concerns about Bidens age to swing the election to Trump. I'm not sure what to say about 2016. I didn't read that one book that was a synopsis of the campaign. Reportedly Bill Clinton wasn't happy with the way things were ran. It seemed to be a combination of Hillary's unlike ability and the appeal of Trumps Americs First message. And did the investigation into Anthony Weiner at the last minute make the difference? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) The age thing is hilarious to me. Biden at 81 right now is 20 years younger cognitively and physically than morbidly obese word salad Trump at 77. Must be the magnets. Edited January 10 by The Evil Genius 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Trump needs to win all the states he won in 20 and just 3 states that gets him to 270. Arizona, Georgia likely flipping back to Donny so he needs to flip one of the higher ev Midwest states and he has a good chance to do it. Dem turnout will be lower than 20. Despite what people believe, I don’t view abortion or democracy will be the issue that will motivate the voters who will make a difference. I think the voters who feel they were better off economically under Trump will vote for him over Biden. If a voter is upset with Biden over a particular issue, they will either stay home or vote third party. 3rd party will be a factor this year. The margins between winning or losing will be close and it won’t take much to flip states one way or the other. It won’t matter if Trump comes off crazy or even in prison. Voters will assume if Trump is in jail, his veep will be president. If they don’t want to vote for Biden, they aren’t and the fear of what happens under Dictator Trump or Handmade Takes gop, won’t move them. Biden is almost reaching the point where the views on him hardened and nothing will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Sentiments like this fall on the deaf ears of the GOP voting bloc: https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/01/republican-voters-can-and-should-rethink-nominating-trump/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) I disagree 88. Turnout will be historically high if/when Trump is on the ballot. Edited January 10 by The Evil Genius 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 @Barry.Randolphe and why do they think that moderate Dems aren't also holding our noses on certain issues in support of Biden. Would we get this with Trump? https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/22/politics/un-security-council-resolution-israel-gaza-resolution/index.html Anyone that I talk to who complains about Biden, when I mention Kamala or Gavin they cringe. Something the GOP does well is hold their noses in support of candidates. There is a certain truth you are voting for the party policy over the specific candidate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now