Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[hail2skins]

2 hours ago, Fergasun said:

If 25 percent of voters are true undecideds -- and to the tailgate commetarist like us who are pretty decided it feels weird there are undecideds -- and those 25 percent believe the negative perceptions about Biden, and none of the negatives on Trump, Trump will landslide him.  Biden barely won the electoral college. 

 

I don't want to believe in such a gullible and uninformed electorate.  At the same time, I am not convinced that 4 years of Trump will bring on a facist dictatorship.  I think most people are sick of these guys.   And some people don't take things as serious. 

I think Trump will win the 2024 election, but can't fathom it being in landslide fashion. The electoral margin won't be any greater than he beat Hillary by in 2016 (which is also what Biden beat him by in 2020). And I don't at all see how Trump wins the popular vote.

 

But also think a Trump win doesn't bode well for the GOP in 2028. I agree that I don't think it'll bring on a fascist dictatorship, but see enough nonsense that it'll again turn off indies in 2028 and toward a Dem party who should have their stuff together more in 2028 (specifically, not having an old candidate running and not being the incumbent saddled with stimulus-caused inflation).

 

I just wonder if we're at a point where if the candidate on the opposite side wins, the voter won't personally consider the election of that person as legitimate. Trump has really poisoned our discourse in that significant way, and many GOP voters have bought it hook, line, and sinker.

[PokerPacker]

Trump's first term in office was a dress-rehearsal for bringing Fascism to America.  They poked and prodded around the system finding the weaknesses and personnel-wise figuring out who pushes back and who can be trusted to institute fascism.  A second term would be devastating compared to the first term, outside of the first term coming with 3 supreme court justices (two of which I believe were opened up through corruption;  you can't convince me Kennedy decided to retire during Trump's presidency to give up the deciding seat all on his own without some sort of bribe or blackmail.)

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Polls have been unreliable but Biden is overseeing an economy where it’s still difficult for many to get groceries and costs are still really high, concerns grow every day over global wars, and he is hemorrhaging support among young voters over his handling of the Israel/Gaza situation. 
 

doesn’t mean it will cause people to vote for trump but it could easily cause people to stay home and lead to 2016 again. His victory margins are razor thin so it wouldn’t take much apathy in a few states to put trump back in office

35 minutes ago, PokerPacker said:

Trump's first term in office was a dress-rehearsal for bringing Fascism to America.  They poked and prodded around the system finding the weaknesses and personnel-wise figuring out who pushes back and who can be trusted to institute fascism.  A second term would be devastating compared to the first term, outside of the first term coming with 3 supreme court justices (two of which I believe were opened up through corruption;  you can't convince me Kennedy decided to retire during Trump's presidency to give up the deciding seat all on his own without some sort of bribe or blackmail.)

they’re the raptors in Jurassic Park. They spent 4 years testing the fences. Now they know the vulnerabilities and how to attack. A trump 2nd term where they plan on replacing a large majority of the federal workforce with partisan yes men and he also doesn’t have to answer to voters again would be disastrous for our hope of democracy 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

19 hours ago, Larry said:

 

The country did not go downhill when Biden took office.  

 

And the only people who think that it did, have their head up Trump's ass.  

 

 

I do not see how you can explain the incumbent trailing a 4 time criminal in so many polls other than Biden is seen as a weak President.  How else would you explain it?  MAGA ain't nearly enough people to have that much influence on the polls    We see the polls above, fair or not people hold the current President accountable when prices are up, 401s are down and 2 wars started.  That's just the way it works. 

 

The Dems are in trouble, a stronger President was needed  

Edited November 6, 2023 by Darrell Green Fan

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[PleaseBlitz]

I'll just note that Trump is campaigning, Biden is not.  And in the GOP faux primary, nobody has the balls to actually attack Trump for his myriad failings.  

 

Also, by nearly every measure, the economy is REALLY good right now.  GDP grew 4.9% last quarter.  Inflation is down to 3.7% (down from 9.1% in June 2022).  The unemployment  rate is below 4%.  Wages are up (by more than inflation).  I guess perception is reality and people will believe what they want to believe, but if you feel the economy is bad right now, then you are just wrong.  

[TradeTheBeal!]

I’m fairly convinced that most folks concerns/feelings about the economy are based on the fact that they forgot how to live when interest rates weren’t lower than Daron Payne’s vertical.  
 

As we go forward in 2024, inflation will continue to subside and the Fed will likely relax rates and “feelings” about the economy (and Biden) will grow quite a bit rosier.

 

Or not.  I’m just a humble car salesman….

[Larry]

21 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I’m just a humble car salesman

 

Perhaps if you didn't describe your merchandise that way?  

[Darrell Green Fan]

I've been searching for a humble car and I may have found my man!

[tshile]

46 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I guess perception is reality and people will believe what they want to believe, but if you feel the economy is bad right now, then you are just wrong.  

Well this is what I’ve been saying for a while. 
 

the numbers you posted are correct. But things are still a lot more expensive than they were pre-covid and that’s what peoples day to day life shows them about what’s going on. No one gives a **** inflation is down, just what it currently costs them to go get groceries. And even though inflation is down, it’s still positive, and up toward 4%, which means things are continuing to get more expensive. 
 

until people accept the current prices as the new normal, they will continue to view it as bad and it doesn’t matter what numbers the economists put forward. No one is going to give a **** about gdp growth, employment percentages, and inflation percentages until they stop getting some angry/worried about the cost of their day to day expenses. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

14 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I've been searching for a humble car and I may have found my man!

 

[tshile]

Another thing to think about, and this is just an example of how economists can give you nice big overview numbers but completely gloss over important details, what I’ve seen with wage growth:

 

people at the bottom saw things like their 9$/hr wage go to 15. 
 

people at the top with the ability to demand more likewise have seen wage growth

 

but people in the middle making like 50k-70k/year, have been told times are tough and there isn’t any money for raises. Maybe they’ve gotten random small bonuses to “make up for it” but for the most part these people are seeing increased prices, hearing about increased wages, but only seeing their person buying power dwindle. 
 

which means when you ask them what they think about things, they say it’s not good and they’re not happy. 
 

I know someone that’s middle income that has to replace their car. Between higher prices and higher interest rates, they can’t afford the same level of car that they’re replacing. To them that means things are bad. And they don’t give a **** about GPD growth 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited November 6, 2023 by tshile

[PleaseBlitz]

Just now, tshile said:

Another thing to think about, and this is just an example of how economists can give you nice big overview numbers but completely gloss over important details, what I’ve seen with wage growth:

 

people at the bottom saw things like their 9$/hr wage go to 15. 
 

people at the top with the ability to demand more likewise have seen wage growth

 

but people in the middle making like 50k-70k/year, have been told times are tough and there isn’t any money for raises. Maybe they’ve gotten random small bonuses to “make up for it” but for the most part these people are seeing increased prices, hearing about increased wages, but only seeing their person buying power dwindle. 
 

which means when you ask them what they think about things, they say it’s not good and they’re not happy. 
 

I know someone that’s middle income that had to replace their car. Between higher prices and higher interest rates, they can’t afford the same level of car that they’re replacing. To them that means things are bad. And they don’t give a **** about GPD growth 🤷‍♂️ 

 

It'd be great if you could back up your assertions with any kind of data.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

 

but people in the middle making like 50k-70k/year, have been told times are tough and there isn’t any money for raises. Maybe they’ve gotten random small bonuses to “make up for it” but for the most part these people are seeing increased prices, hearing about increased wages, but only seeing their person buying power dwindle. 

I think you can even stretch that top end to $100k.  The bottom end of the wage scale has seen mass improvement, but those in the middle aren’t yet reaping any benefits of it.  They just see their money not going as far as it once did, and don’t want to hear about how the economy is doing swell.

[tshile]

Just now, PleaseBlitz said:

 

It'd be great if you could back up your assertions with any kind of data.  

Have you bought food, paid for daycare, had to take a loan out in the last 4 years?

 

now imagine you’re not a lawyer but instead making 40-80k a year and not seeing much in terms of raises. 
 

I follow the data just like you. And just like you I’m a high earner. So I’m able to deal with it. But maybe unlike you I know and socialize with a ton of people that aren’t high earners. So it’s not difficult for me to understand why these high prices aren’t affecting me the way they are others. Similarly it’s not difficult for me to understand why they’re unhappy and angry about it, and don’t care about things like gdp growth. 
 

and as we’ve all been discussing, it doesn’t help the news headlines are always negative even when the numbers suggest they shouldn’t be. 

[PleaseBlitz]

Also pretty funny that people "don’t give a **** about GPD growth" when it's great but cuts against their agenda.  When Trump was in office, that and jobs were all he talked about. 

[tshile]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I think you can even stretch that top end to $100k.  The bottom end of the wage scale has seen mass improvement, but those in the middle aren’t yet reaping any benefits of it.  They just see their money not going as far as it once did, and don’t want to hear about how the economy is doing swell.

Yeah I’m not sure what the actual dividing lines are. And I’m not trying to argue over those specifics. 
 

I just know generally what’s going on in the minds of a lot of middle-income people around where I live, because they talk about it and it’s not hard to understand. I see the higher prices just like they do, they are a burden to us too, they just don’t cause us anxiety because financially they aren’t as burdensome to us. 

[PleaseBlitz]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

Have you bought food, paid for daycare, had to take a loan out in the last 4 years?

 

now imagine you’re not a lawyer but instead making 40-80k a year and not seeing much in terms of raises. 
 

I follow the data just like you. And just like you I’m a high earner. So I’m able to deal with it. But maybe unlike you I know and socialize with a ton of people that aren’t high earners. So it’s not difficult for me to understand why these high prices aren’t affecting me the way they are others. Similarly it’s not difficult for me to understand why they’re unhappy and angry about it, and don’t care about things like gdp growth. 
 

and as we’ve all been discussing, it doesn’t help the news headlines are always negative even when the numbers suggest they shouldn’t be. 

 

I guess that's your way of saying you won't post any actual data.  YAY, more anecdotes about tshile's friends and their car trouble.  

[tshile]

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Also pretty funny that people "don’t give a **** about GPD growth" when it's great but cuts against their agenda.  When Trump was in office, that and jobs were all he talked about. 

the general public is not very smart and is very selfish and only cares about their personal problems.

more news at 11. 

Just now, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I guess that's your way of saying you won't post any actual data.  YAY, more anecdotes about tshile's friends and their car trouble.  

the polls seem to back up what I’m saying. 
Maybe you’re the one ignoring numbers that cut against your agenda?

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, PleaseBlitz said:

Also pretty funny that people "don’t give a **** about GPD growth" when it's great but cuts against their agenda.  When Trump was in office, that and jobs were all he talked about. 

As with most things, people don’t really know what they are talking about.

 

What they can recognize though is the price of gas and the cost of goods.  All that stuff is way up and the middle’s wages are not.  That’s where the rubber really hits the road.

 

Obviously, there’s a lot that goes into that - but that’s how people tend to vote.

[ixcuincle]

it just seems like we are just painting a broad rosy picture of the last 4 years. yes they were better than Trump but that's not saying much. **** like this is disturbing. 

 

"no president has done more for the American people" 

 

Obama anyone 

 

even Clinton 

 

Joe is a caretaker in office. his policies are okay but revisionist history paints him out to be Kennedy. he's not even close. 

 

[tshile]

All that’s really being shown here is how out of touch @PleaseBlitzis with the rest of America. 
 

it’s not hard to understand why the numbers are what they are, but people are personally upset/angry/worried about what’s going on in their day to day life, and why the polls would look the way they look. 

[PleaseBlitz]

3 minutes ago, tshile said:

All that’s really being shown here is how out of touch @PleaseBlitzis with the rest of America. 
 

it’s not hard to understand why the numbers are what they are, but people are personally upset/angry/worried about what’s going on in their day to day life, and why the polls would look the way they look. 

 

You've got to be kidding me.  I've (1) posted economic data and (2) asked you to post any data that backs up the statements you've made, which you refused to do and seem to be offended that someone would even ask. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by PleaseBlitz