3rd Down Defense - Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage 38% 2020 to 50% 2021?

[TheShredder]

Why couldn't the defense get off the field in 2021

At one point WFT was the worst 3rd down defense in NFL history.

The comparison of results is the fact that in 2020 they gave up a 3rd down conversion 37.83% of the time, ranking them #7 in the NFL.

In 2021, they became historically bad and finished #31 only because of an inept NY Giants offense in week 18, couldn't get a 1st down. The final tally was 50%!!

 

Why? What did they do to fix it for Week 1 2022?

 

 

 

[TheShredder]

First excuse JDR makes is injuries, even though when they were at their worst, nobody was hurt.

When you have talented players and there's no results, that's the coach! That's the guy designing the scheme, positioning the players, and calling the plays.

That's not injuries. If an offense designs a game plan to get a QB going with some high percentage passes, why wouldn't a defense design some blitzes to get some pressure going?

As far as I can tell, JDR should have been replaced the morning after the season ended. What am I missing?

[skinny21]

Lack of OTAs sets back the new secondary additions from getting adjusted - McCain/Jackson

Collins/Bostic/Davis see significant snaps - Bostic is a weak link, Collins is too at SS, and Davis wasn’t ready

Back 7 struggles

Young and Sweat come in overconfident and then don’t fully play within the scheme.  

Secondary allows qbs to get rid of the ball faster, line doesn’t get the push needed to help the secondary.

Lots of offensive turnovers, heavy passing game means D is on the field a lot.

All of which leads to all around defensive sucktitude (while also playing a much tougher slate of qbs).

 

As the season rolls on, the back 7 improves (Collins in his new role and Curl at SS helps), the offense runs the ball more and sustains longer drives, but the inexperienced, backup DEs are pretty sucky.  Injuries, Covid and offensive ineptitude all hurt the D.

 

That’s my 2 cents anyway

[Conn]

—30% JDR

—30% remixed secondary with horrible communication not played to their strengths (also a subcategory of JDR imo)

—30% the defense knowing they couldn’t rely on the offense to score points which is a bad mindset to be in on big downs

—10% injuries, schedule, lack of team chemistry for various reasons 

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

The D thought they were something special based on 2020. They bought into the hype and didn't prepare/study..especially the Dline. They couldn't get to or hurry the "good" qb's who feasted on the secondary. Arrogance cost em early and they dug a hole they couldn't get out of and started pressing. Once the "talent" was off the field, the other players played to fundamentals and improved. Collins was a prime example of this..he thought he could cover when he just plain couldn't match the speed. That and the D was not mature enough to adapt to $%*t thrown at em by opponents. They schemed Young out of his pants...frustrated him..and he fell on his face.

 

You can coach a player schemes all day long but if they don't listen..it's not on JDR.

[NoVaSkins21]

The 3rd down D was bad from the jump in 2021.  Things should hopefully be better in 2022 with a better schedule, additions by subtraction,(Collins, Bostic) and better pressure from the front 4 which hopefully comes with better coaching on that end.

Edited July 3, 2022 by NoVaSkins21

[TheShredder]

1 hour ago, The Hangman- C_Hanburger said:

You can coach a player schemes all day long but if they don't listen..it's not on JDR.

It's JDR's responsibility to identify where the problems are and make the adjustments, so it is JDR.

JDR is a Clown

https://giphy.com/clips/christinaxingfilm-funny-reaction-clown-VaZCqsIK7gBRRPLPDl

Edited July 3, 2022 by TheShredder

[TheShredder]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Secondary allows qbs to get rid of the ball faster, line doesn’t get the push needed to help the secondary.

I agree with you and if it mattered I'd swap the Pass Rush ineffective allowing WR to get open easier. They go hand in hand so...

They should have done more and fixed issues faster. So frustrating to watch every other 3rd down be a new set.

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

11 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

It's JDR's responsibility to identify where the problems are and make the adjustments, so it is JDR.

JDR is a Clown

https://giphy.com/clips/christinaxingfilm-funny-reaction-clown-VaZCqsIK7gBRRPLPDl

Didn't JDR have top 10 defenses basically his entire career? Although he's a coach, I feel like he may have to be added to the highly successful elsewhere players who disappointmented after coming here. Such as Josh Norman, Dana Stubblefield, Albert Haynesworth, etc 😡😡

[TheShredder]

9 minutes ago, AlwaysBeRedskins2Me said:

Didn't JDR have top 10 defenses basically his entire career? Although he's a coach, I feel like he may have to be added to the highly successful elsewhere players who disappointmented after coming here. Such as Josh Norman, Dana Stubblefield, Albert Haynesworth, etc 😡😡

The D was good, top 10. He should have been able to identify what was wrong and make changes, adjustments, and bench a guy who wasn't doing his job and hurting the team. He gets paid to do just that. Frankly, I don't think he did, nor take responsibility for it. Definitely wasn't held accountable at all.

Edited July 3, 2022 by TheShredder

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

13 hours ago, TheShredder said:

 Definitely wasn't held accountable at all.

He got slammed and had to endure those questions at the press conference so he was held accountable...just to what degree. I don't think it was a firing offense, but it WAS a wake up call for 2022. If history repeats..I agree..out he goes.

[TheShredder]

5 hours ago, The Hangman- C_Hanburger said:

He got slammed and had to endure those questions at the press conference so he was held accountable...just to what degree. I don't think it was a firing offense, but it WAS a wake up call for 2022. If history repeats..I agree..out he goes.

You're talking about his off-field failures. I didn't say anything about that. So NO! He's not been held accountable or answered any more than fluffy Julie Donaldson 'set-back' questions for his negligence in his position.

[bowhunter]

20 hours ago, Conn said:

—30% JDR

—30% remixed secondary with horrible communication not played to their strengths (also a subcategory of JDR imo)

—30% the defense knowing they couldn’t rely on the offense to score points which is a bad mindset to be in on big downs

—10% injuries, schedule, lack of team chemistry for various reasons 

20% JDR not making adjustments to the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

10% remixed secondary getting picked apart by the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

10% defense couldn't rely on offenses to match the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

20% They played the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

20% Chase and Montez got too big for their britches

20% Letting J.Davis learn on the job meant a learning curve that the other factors couldn't coverup

 

 

[Conn]

10 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

20% JDR not making adjustments to the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

10% remixed secondary getting picked apart by the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

10% defense couldn't rely on offenses to match the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

20% They played the Best lineup of opposing QBs in the league

20% Chase and Montez got too big for their britches

20% Letting J.Davis learn on the job meant a learning curve that the other factors couldn't coverup

 

 

A good defense will give up points to great QBs but they won’t be almost historically bad in the ways that we were. I weight our tough schedule for sure, but not as heavily as you do. Our performance in many key areas was abysmal regardless of opposing QBs. Facing a lesser schedule should help exaggerate our bounce back for sure though if we end up playing well on defense this year, it can’t hurt. 

[bowhunter]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

A good defense will give up points to great QBs but they won’t be almost historically bad in the ways that we were. I weight our tough schedule for sure, but not as heavily as you do. Our performance in many key areas was abysmal regardless of opposing QBs. Facing a lesser schedule should help exaggerate our bounce back for sure though if we end up playing well on defense this year, it can’t hurt. 

Ultimately it falls on the DCs shoulders. I just think it was a perfect storm of or DEs feeling that they were above the fray and a MLB trying to learn. Didn't have the depth to effectively pull them

[Voice_of_Reason]

I’ve posted this a bunch but they tried to make too many changes and broke everything.  The biggest offense was benching Curl for Collins. But overall, they just had so many different moving pieces and it took them half a year to figure out what the hell was going on.

 

 

[TheShredder]

23 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’ve posted this a bunch but they tried to make too many changes and broke everything.  The biggest offense was benching Curl for Collins. But overall, they just had so many different moving pieces and it took them half a year to figure out what the hell was going on.

 

 

That's a coaching flaw.

+Why change what wasn't broken?

+Why experiment with 'IF' a player can do something, instead of putting them in position to do EXACTLY what they do well?

+Position Flex...REALLY!? What happened to scheming for talent?

These are all coaches making dumb choices.

FYI Cole Holcomb is slow AF - not Luke Kuechly. Decent LB'er that OC's fall in Love with every Sunday because he's dependable for 4-5 yds per play.

[FootballZombie]

NFL.com ranked Allen and Payne the third best DT duo in the league a couple of days ago, so I guess you can say they are not part of the problem.

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-ranking-top-duos-at-11-key-position-groups

[Warhead36]

The truth is the D wasn't that good in 2020. We got shredded by every decent or better QB they faced, but also just happened to face a disproportionately large # of backup QBs and/or OL combinations to pad the numbers. If you look at the box scores, I think we gave up 30+ points to every QB you'd consider above average or better except maybe Russel Wilson(but they killed us on the ground).

 

Last year was the other end of the spectrum. We faced an absolutely brutal schedule of top QB after top QB after top QB. 

 

The truth is the D is probably somewhere around league average. The DL is above average(but should be better considering the investment put in them). The LBs are terrible. The secondary is probably about average(maybe could be above average if Juice takes that next step and WJ3 returns to his previous form).

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 hours ago, TheShredder said:

That's a coaching flaw.

+Why change what wasn't broken?

+Why experiment with 'IF' a player can do something, instead of putting them in position to do EXACTLY what they do well?

+Position Flex...REALLY!? What happened to scheming for talent?

These are all coaches making dumb choices.

FYI Cole Holcomb is slow AF - not Luke Kuechly. Decent LB'er that OC's fall in Love with every Sunday because he's dependable for 4-5 yds per play.

It's more than a coaching flaw.  It's a personnel flaw.

 

- They flipped Darby for WJIII, who didn't exactly fit what they were doing.  

- They brought in St. Juice, who they really liked

- They brought in McCain

- Collins came back from injury

- They drafted Davis

 

They literally couldn't keep everything the same because the personnel changed.  

 

I've said from the beginning, they tried to enhance what they did well, but in the process, they did a mini-Gibbs 2006 off-season, and broke everything.  

 

What Jack gets 100% blame for is not realizing Collins on the field and Curl off the field was a horrendous idea after about 10 plays.  He was stubborn in trying to make that work, and it bit him in the ass.

 

However, every season is new, and the personnel does change, and you might upgrade at spots, and players might improve.  So, there's always SOME experimentation, just by the way the league works.  It's going to happen, and I'm fine with that.  

 

But you've got to adjust more quickly.  And that I put on Jack.  

 

That said, after a while, and amazingly after Young and Sweat were out, the defense DID play much better.  The secondary gelled, and the coordinated pass-rush was better.

 

Which can lead you to think there is a lot of accountability on the players here, not just the coach.

18 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The truth is the D wasn't that good in 2020. We got shredded by every decent or better QB they faced, but also just happened to face a disproportionately large # of backup QBs and/or OL combinations to pad the numbers. If you look at the box scores, I think we gave up 30+ points to every QB you'd consider above average or better except maybe Russel Wilson(but they killed us on the ground).

 

Last year was the other end of the spectrum. We faced an absolutely brutal schedule of top QB after top QB after top QB. 

 

The truth is the D is probably somewhere around league average. The DL is above average(but should be better considering the investment put in them). The LBs are terrible. The secondary is probably about average(maybe could be above average if Juice takes that next step and WJ3 returns to his previous form).

If the DL isn't outstanding after spending 4 firsts and now a second, it's time to break them up.  

 

We'll see how the LBs do this year, especially since they have decided not to use LBs much. I think Holcomb is actually a pretty good player.  He's a not an all-pro, but he's good enough.  The second LB, we'll see.  Since I don't give up on draft picks after one year by general rule, I am anxious to see if Davis has improved and can play more freely.  If he can, then the two of them possess a lot of athleticism and speed.  

 

WJIII is the big question in the secondary.  Curl is a playmaker.  McCain played well towards the end of the year.  Fuller is fine.  If WJIII plays up to his contract, they will be good.  If he doesn't, they won't. It's kindof that simple.

[Voice_of_Reason]

18 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

NFL.com ranked Allen and Payne the third best DT duo in the league a couple of days ago, so I guess you can say they are not part of the problem.

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-ranking-top-duos-at-11-key-position-groups

I mean, maybe.  It's just Bucky Brook's opinion, and I don't know how much film he's watched to come up with these.  It kindof reads as though he "read the press clippings" and put it together.  I'm not saying he's wrong, but I'm also not taking Bucky's word for it either.  

 

I don't study DT combinations league wide, so maybe it is true.  I actually think they are better than the #2 group of Williams and Lawrence for the Giants. 

 

Allen is a beast, though.   

 

But they have gotten run on a lot.  Is that the DTs?  LBs?  DEs?  All of the above?   

[TheShredder]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

But they have gotten run on a lot.  Is that the DTs?  LBs?  DEs?  All of the above?   

When I watch replays I see slow LB'er play, bad LB'er play, and poor execution. Blocks will be clearly forming a target gap and the LB'er won't enter the gap until they've already given up 3 yds. It happens too often. This constantly offers easily converted 3rd downs. They can't stop a 3rd and long 50% of the time, so 3rd and 4 or less is almost a guaranteed conversion.

Look, I know everyone loves Ron Rivera, but he's not getting it done. I don't think he's on the hot seat like JDR but Scott Turner will be the HC after year 5 if RR doesn't fix the defense.

[Voice_of_Reason]

52 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

Look, I know everyone loves Ron Rivera, but he's not getting it done. I don't think he's on the hot seat like JDR but Scott Turner will be the HC after year 5 if RR doesn't fix the defense.

Everyone does not love Ron.  I like Ron.  I agree, though, the defense needs to step up.  I also agree that Jack is on the hot seat this year. If they don't perform better, he is going to be on the chopping block.  

 

Ron has 2 more years no matter what.  Then he will either be extended or fired.

 

I doubt Scott Turner would take over from Ron if Ron is fired, just like McVay wouldn't take over for Jay if Jay was fired.  That said, Scott Turner hasn't shown HC qualifications just yet, so let's not get ahead of ourselves with that.  

[TheShredder]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I doubt Scott Turner would take over from Ron if Ron is fired, just like McVay wouldn't take over for Jay if Jay was fired.  That said, Scott Turner hasn't shown HC qualifications just yet, so let's not get ahead of ourselves with that.  

Yeah that part was my Hot-Take!  There is a road for that happening, when the offense takes off and the 1st RD D fails.

[Master Blaster]

On 7/4/2022 at 6:08 PM, TheShredder said:

FYI Cole Holcomb is slow AF - not Luke Kuechly. Decent LB'er that OC's fall in Love with every Sunday because he's dependable for 4-5 yds per play.

 

 

Comments like this are what make this board so difficult to read.

 

Cole ran a 4.48 40 with the highest marks for a LB in the three cone and broad jump.

 

His greatest asset his his speed/athleticism.  He definitely isn't "slow AF"