3rd Down Defense - Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage 38% 2020 to 50% 2021?

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

On 7/6/2022 at 12:49 PM, Master Blaster said:

 

 

Comments like this are what make this board so difficult to read.

 

Cole ran a 4.48 40 with the highest marks for a LB in the three cone and broad jump.

 

His greatest asset his his speed/athleticism.  He definitely isn't "slow AF"

Yes, that " Holcomb is slow " comment had me scratching my head. Very strange thing to say. One can argue if he is a good linebacker or not but his speed is legit.

[skinny21]

He’s pretty darn fast, yep.  Of course, it’s not just about physical speed for backers… so maybe it was more a reference to his diagnosing/processing speed?

 

On a related note, one thing I’ve never quite understood is Del Rio essentially saying we’re a one gapping defense and that keeps our backers “clean”.  I mean sure, I can see it happening at times - if your Dline gets to the backfield and makes the tackle, if they cause the back to hesitate or bounce, or if they disrupt the blockers enough that they can’t reach the backers.  
Don’t know that I count those first two as keeping the backers clean, but more importantly 1) that goes against the conventional wisdom as I’ve always heard it, 2) (to @TheShredder’s point) how often have we seen Holcomb 3-4 yards deep, wrapping up the ball carrier who falls forward for a 4-6 yard gain?  And 3) I feel like I’ve seen our DTs 2 gap pretty often. 

 

As usual, I’m probably just missing something…

[TheShredder]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Don’t know that I count those first two as keeping the backers clean, but more importantly 1) that goes against the conventional wisdom as I’ve always heard it, 2) (to @TheShredder’s point) how often have we seen Holcomb 3-4 yards deep, wrapping up the ball carrier who falls forward for a 4-6 yard gain?  And 3) I feel like I’ve seen our DTs 2 gap pretty often. 

Yeah, the point is the tackle is happening way too late. You said it better than I did. For sure, the coaching scheme isn't good. A good NFL RB avg is a tick past 4 yds per carry. Your leading tackler can't allow more than that if you're going to win. They have to find a way to be faster to the tackle. I've seen enough that the blame lands on JDR IMO.

[skinny21]

3 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Yeah, the point is the tackle is happening way too late. You said it better than I did. For sure, the coaching scheme isn't good. A good NFL RB avg is a tick past 4 yds per carry. Your leading tackler can't allow more than that if you're going to win. They have to find a way to be faster to the tackle. I've seen enough that the blame lands on JDR IMO.

For me, I’ve noticed that I’ve always been pretty forgiving about defensive coaching, and I think that’s for 2 reasons.  One, I’m a laymen in terms of schemes/play calls, and two, it’s a lot easier to grasp when players are screwing up or are deficient in some way (especially when people break down film highlighting it).  On top of that, DCs are limited by their personnel - can’t be easy to hide the weaknesses of Bostic, Collins, Jamin, etc, or to have much success when you’ve got UDFAs/late round rookies on the field.

 

So when I see a video comparing how Mayo made an adjustment call and then filled his assignment vs Holcomb, I can say that’s the player needing to act/react quicker.  When I see Jackson beat over the top because he expected safety help that didn’t come, I tend to blame the safety/communication, rather than put it down to a schematic issue.  Now, to be fair, those examples do also point to coaching to some degree - it’s the coaches job to prepare their players after all.

 

With Del Rio specifically, I don’t know if he’s a good coach.  I do know that he’s had some very successful defenses, which leads me to think his issues have more to do with the variable nature of rosters.  Could he be doing a better job dealing with those variables?  I don’t know, and that uncertainty is why I don’t know what exactly to think of him.

 

[Zim489]

IMO everything stems from the abysmal coverage across the middle. None of our LBs can cover. Landon was woeful in coverage. Whether thats from this ridiculous buffalo nickel, LB, or Safety. Kam is about the only plus starter in the middle of the field and we have done next to nothing to upgrade it.

 

[TheShredder]

17 hours ago, skinny21 said:

With Del Rio specifically, I don’t know if he’s a good coach.  I do know that he’s had some very successful defenses, which leads me to think his issues have more to do with the variable nature of rosters.  Could he be doing a better job dealing with those variables?  I don’t know, and that uncertainty is why I don’t know what exactly to think of him.

There's a huge misconceptions about JDR being a good coach.

He became a commodity as part of the 2000 Ravens super bowl coaching staff as a LB'er coach. How much he contributed to the breakout of DPOY Ray Lewis is debatable.Ray Lewis would have been DPOY with any decent LB'er coach. JDR parlayed that into a DC job in Carolina where they dramatically fell apart from one of the best defensive teams to a 1-15 record. In 2003 he started his career losing record as a Head Coach (W93-L94). JDR turned the JAX D into the #1 NFL D. His best coaching year and he topped out there, 19 years ago!!

He tried to motivate with a mantra of "Chopping Wood" meant to mean something like work hard. Had guys filmed actually chopping a stump with an axe, which resulted in the kicker almost chopping his foot off! Brilliant🤣

So, the history is clear. JDR is a 50/50 coach. One year he's good and then you can bet the farm he's wetting the bed the next. Good coaches consistently put together good results. JDR is consistently inconsistent, for going on two decades.

Uninventive, unoriginal, predictable, old school antiquated 50/50 coach.

3 hours ago, Zim489 said:

IMO everything stems from the abysmal coverage across the middle. None of our LBs can cover. Landon was woeful in coverage. Whether thats from this ridiculous buffalo nickel, LB, or Safety. Kam is about the only plus starter in the middle of the field and we have done next to nothing to upgrade it.

 

The defense was the worst on 3rd Down in NFL History and the solution was to do nothing and run it back. Negligence defined.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, TheShredder said:

The defense was the worst on 3rd Down in NFL History and the solution was to do nothing and run it back. Negligence defined.

I think we need to see how it plays out a bit.  

 

The reason is they tried to change things up so much, and arguably had multiple "upgrades" and it all imploded, mostly because there was just too much change, and people were not in the right positions.   

 

Honestly, they just tried to get too cute.  

 

The defense was playing much better for a period of time, until a confluence of events caused it to collapse.

 

And no matter what they did, the defense is going to rest on Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jon Allen, Daron Payne, Kendall Fuller, WJIII and Kam Curl.  Those are the players who have to play up to their level of talent, which all should be somewhere between "very good" and "great."  If that happens, the rest of it will take care of itself.  

 

Could they have plugged in another LB?  I mean, sure.  But honestly, I am ok with them going in with the same group that finished last year kindof strong because it builds continuity, something they lacked early in the season.  

 

If the guys I named above play well, then the defense, even if the LBs and other role players are just "ok," will be fine.  If Davis, Holcomb, another safety, whoever play somewhere between "Ok" and "Good" then it could be a real rebound year.

 

One of the other things I think Jack learned at the beginning of the season was he could not depend on the front 4 to get pressure, and he had to be more creative.  

 

I will say this: I'm somewhat surprised they didn't get something of an insurance policy for Young, who might miss at least 3 or 4 games, maybe more, at the beginning of the season.  

 

I think the LB stuff is overblown at this point, assuming that they are going with 2 LBs and 3 safeties.  The question is going to be, who is the 11th defender.  My guess is it's going to rotate between one of the safeties and St. Juste.  A safety in early downs, and St. Juste in known passing situations.  

 

Holcomb is actually pretty good and developing.  We've wanted the team to draft and develop talent for decades.  We do that, and then there is part of the fan base who wants to hit FA for upgrades.  Can't have it both ways, and "developing" doesn't mean overnight.  It takes time.  Holcomb is entering his 4th year as a 5th round pick and is a good LB.  

 

Davis, we'll see.  But he was a rookie, and anybody who passes final judgement on a player after a rookie season is not just a fool but a damn fool.  (Said like Brian Mitchell)

[Zim489]

I think its just too easy to bypass the line in 3rd and mediums and shorter. I dont think the back end is good enough to be on an island as this team will have to sell out to stop the run game early. I dont think the stat exists but Id wager we were on the low end f average 3rd down to go against. Our LBs and and safeties outside of Kam just arent good in pass defense. Any team with a good QB will pick them apart. You know where good QBs are? IN the playoffs. Were just not building to win in the playoffs. Were building to not lose games in the season just so we can actually make the playoffs. 

 

I personally think the people underselling the LB dont understand that the more you can have your LBs on the field the better and more difficult it is to scheme against. If they are athletic enough you can stay in base all game long on anything less than 4 Wide as zone becomes more and more vital in coverage because of the growing threat of mobile QBs. 

 

I think the the Holcolmb love is wildly overstated. Hes good to great at see ball go to ball but I think hes sub par in the pass game. The far more important aspect to LB play in 2022 along with blitzing capability. 

[Conn]

I think when people start realizing nickel is now a base defense, they’ll realize that much of the league spends the majority of every game in their base defense.

Sure, if you’ve got good LB’s that cover like DB’s it’s an advantage. But you want teams to run on you in neutral situations if you have a good offense. You want to bait them into doing the least efficient thing available to them. So enticing that with more DBs on the field is a fine decision…again, if you can score points. Which we hope to be able to do.
 

 

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, TheShredder said:

There's a huge misconceptions about JDR being a good coach.

He became a commodity as part of the 2000 Ravens super bowl coaching staff as a LB'er coach. How much he contributed to the breakout of DPOY Ray Lewis is debatable.Ray Lewis would have been DPOY with any decent LB'er coach. JDR parlayed that into a DC job in Carolina where they dramatically fell apart from one of the best defensive teams to a 1-15 record. In 2003 he started his career losing record as a Head Coach (W93-L94). JDR turned the JAX D into the #1 NFL D. His best coaching year and he topped out there, 19 years ago!!

He tried to motivate with a mantra of "Chopping Wood" meant to mean something like work hard. Had guys filmed actually chopping a stump with an axe, which resulted in the kicker almost chopping his foot off! Brilliant🤣

So, the history is clear. JDR is a 50/50 coach. One year he's good and then you can bet the farm he's wetting the bed the next. Good coaches consistently put together good results. JDR is consistently inconsistent, for going on two decades.

Uninventive, unoriginal, predictable, old school antiquated 50/50 coach.

The defense was the worst on 3rd Down in NFL History and the solution was to do nothing and run it back. Negligence defined.

Hmm… well I’d say it’s fair to ignore his positional coaching and head coaching jobs when evaluating him as a DC, right?  So his 1 year in Carolina, the team was 2nd in yards, 5th in pts, 7th in takeaways.  

 

In Denver, he had:

Yds: 2 very good years, and 1 below average year

Pts: 1 very good year, 1 average, 1 below average

Takeaways:  3 average years (16th, 16th, 14th)

According to TeamRanking.com, 3rd down D ranked 1st, 16th, 6th

 

In Washington:

Yds: 2nd, 22nd

Pts: 4th, 25th

Takeaways: 7th, 21st

3rd down%: 7th, 31st (worth noting we were 32nd in 2019)

 

So there’s some support for your argument for sure (though he’s only had consecutive DC duties twice now).  Also worth noting that (depending on how you want to evaluate defenses) one could argue he fielded good defenses 4 of 6 times, and the other two outings were below average and pretty bad.

Factor in (just some of the) context the past two years -  he had the benefit of going against an easier slate of offenses/qbs in 2020, but it was also his first year.  Then in 2021, he had to deal with a much harder group of qbs, new additions in the secondary not getting OTAs (he’s said this lack of chemistry played a big part in their issues - take that for what it’s worth), and the other personnel issues (guys playing out of alignment, injured DEs, a raw, inexperienced LB, etc).  But it was also his 2nd year and coaches are paid to overcome/manage those types of issues.

 

It’ll be interesting to see what this defense looks like playing with a (hopefully) much improved offense.

[TheShredder]

You all watched the same games I did...tell me how you felt on 3rd and long?? Does it go something like 'there's no way they're converting on this'...then, sure as gravity, they give up another 1st down. This happened all year with only short reprieve moments. They have done nothing to fix it except cut Collins.

Who knows what happens when you run it back like this, as the middle of the field, between 0-20 was always open. I see poor mismatched defensive alignment. I see slow reactions in developing plays. I'm pretty amazed that after they look at the replays, they refuse to make any changes. Very frustrating!

[TheShredder]

6 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Could they have plugged in another LB?  I mean, sure.  But honestly, I am ok with them going in with the same group that finished last year kindof strong because it builds continuity, something they lacked early in the season.  

I mean sure, they could have took the premise that your 1st round draft pick isn't a bust and he'll be better as a sophomore. They can try to coach the scheme to better continuity. However, we're talking about THE WORST in NFL HISTORY on the most important defensive down. Fan comes from the word Fanatic = A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause. I'm trying to take the fan out and find a logical conclusion for neglecting to address the elephant on the couch. Smells like 💩 at this point.

[Master Blaster]

On 7/20/2022 at 5:04 PM, TheShredder said:

There's a huge misconceptions about JDR being a good coach.

 

So, the history is clear. JDR is a 50/50 coach. One year he's good and then you can bet the farm he's wetting the bed the next. Good coaches consistently put together good results. JDR is consistently inconsistent, for going on two decades.

Uninventive, unoriginal, predictable, old school antiquated 50/50 coach.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and checkout Bill's winning percentage without Brady please.