2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Koolblue13]

We need to be adding to our pass rush, via a pass rushing LBer like Reddick/Parsons. Need to Keep the only guy to break 10 sacks for us this year.

 

If we draft or sign a good pass rusher, add some depth in the secondary and have an offense that actually scores points, while keeping the other team off the field, our sack numbers will rival the Eagles next year. We're so close and it looks like we have a QB

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig reacting to Brugler's mock, singing my song and others about Mayer

 

 

Also from Standig today

 

 

[RWJ]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Standig reacting to Brugler's mock, singing my song and others about Mayer

 

 

Also from Standig today

 

 

Payne had one good season. His contract year this year.  I don't pay the guy.  I tag him and then trade him for as much as we can get for him. I sign Sweat instead to a LTD. JMO.  

[Going Commando]

19 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Payne had one good season. His contract year this year.  I don't pay the guy.  I tag him and then trade him for as much as we can get for him. I sign Sweat instead to a LTD. JMO.  

 

He had one big sack total season, but he's been good here every year except his second season, and he got 10 AV in 2020 too.  He's averaged just under 8 AV per season, which is better than anyone else on the team except Jonathan Allen and Terry McLaurin.  He's easily been the third best player on the team since he was drafted, and he's been better, more consistent, and more durable than Sweat.  He's also not going to cost as much to extend as Sweat will either.

[Warhead36]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

He had one big sack total season, but he's been good here every year except his second season, and he got 10 AV in 2020 too.  He's averaged just under 8 AV per season, which is better than anyone else on the team except Jonathan Allen and Terry McLaurin.  He's easily been the third best player on the team since he was drafted, and he's been better, more consistent, and more durable than Sweat.  He's also not going to cost as much to extend as Sweat will either.

Yeah this notion that he came out of nowhere to be good this year is misguided. He's always been good. He entered the league super young so it makes sense that he'd break out around this time(he's only 25 which is really young for a guy with already five accrued years in the league). Also his first two years he was a 3-4 NT and those guys are asked to just be space eaters.

 

Maybe he doesn't put up double digit sacks again in the future but I don't expect his impact to just drop off after he gets paid.

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah this notion that he came out of nowhere to be good this year is misguided. He's always been good. He entered the league super young so it makes sense that he'd break out around this time(he's only 25 which is really young for a guy with already five accrued years in the league). Also his first two years he was a 3-4 NT and those guys are asked to just be space eaters.

 

Maybe he doesn't put up double digit sacks again in the future but I don't expect his impact to just drop off after he gets paid.

 

Me neither.  I also don't think his value is really measured in sacks.  They're nice, and they help bring attention to his play, but for him it's about getting interior pressure and helping to dominate the LoS in the run game.

 

Anyone else remember how bad our run defense was before we drafted him?  Back when we had Stacy McGee and Chris Baker as our interior line?  We're one Jonathan Allen injury away from that trash heap again if we lose Payne.  Don't care if we get Curl locked up and Jamin takes another leap, that team would be incapable of defending the run.  And if you can't defend the run, then you can't play championship caliber defense.  You can't really overstate the value Daron brings to the defense as an explosive, playmaking interior presence lining up in the A and B gaps 900 snaps a season.  He requires opponents to make plans and adjustments for the interior of our line.

 

Dealing Payne for a '23 first isn't going to happen.  Ron isn't going to give up on trying to get Payne back before April because he knows he needs him in what's going to be a make or break year.  And letting Daron walk when we have plenty of cap space and only two guys signed to long term second deals who are worth their money would just be god awful management.  If it's getting towards July and we know negotiations are over and he's determined to play the year on the tag, then OK, we can start talking trades.  And at that point I'm rooting for '24 draft capital and wholesale change to the FO and coaching staff.

[method man]

Franchise Payne and give him a LT deal once the new owner is on board

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

I would take that trade in a heartbeat.  I wouldn't mind keeping Payne, but I can get a mid first rounder for him, I would definitely do that.   He was really good this year, but this was his best year so far, I am not sure we can count on this type of production year in and year out.  Its a deep DLine class so  I probably use that 18th pick to draft his replacement.

 

I think the much harder decision is if you get offered a mid 2nd round for him.

It's not hard you cannot trade him for a 2nd rounder, tag him if all else fails.  I think the hard decision would be a middle round 1st.  

[skinsfan66]

Sorry , my mistake.

Edited January 19, 2023 by skinsfan66

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

We need to be adding to our pass rush, via a pass rushing LBer like Reddick/Parsons. Need to Keep the only guy to break 10 sacks for us this year.

 

If we draft or sign a good pass rusher, add some depth in the secondary and have an offense that actually scores points, while keeping the other team off the field, our sack numbers will rival the Eagles next year. We're so close and it looks like we have a QB

Have we ever had a DT have 11 sacks in a season?  OL and LB for me are the biggest needs, CB TE are down the list for me as far as the draft goes. But we need to keep our own players if possible. If the stud LB is there take him.  Sweat,Holcum,Payne, we need to find a way to keep them or just more holes to fill.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Dealing Payne for a '23 first isn't going to happen.  

 

Don't think so either.  My guess is 50-50 it ends up a tag and he hits FA next year.   Rivera I know (he's said it repeatedly) would want Payne longer. He referenced he regrets losing one of his top DT's in Carolina back in the day.  But I don't know if the stars align for it.  Hopefully it does.  

 

Payne just got into the pro bowl by the way because Danold isn't going to play.  I think Dexter Lawrence isn't going either because of the playoff game he's in. 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Chump Bailey]

7 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I don't post a lot in this thread because there are many people who know more than me, you're one of them--it's very informative and I enjoy the analysis. Keep up the good work.

 

Thank you! That's very kind of you to say and there are some very knowledgeable dudes on this forum for sure. 

[Chump Bailey]

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

We need to be adding to our pass rush, via a pass rushing LBer like Reddick/Parsons. Need to Keep the only guy to break 10 sacks for us this year.

 

If we draft or sign a good pass rusher, add some depth in the secondary and have an offense that actually scores points, while keeping the other team off the field, our sack numbers will rival the Eagles next year. We're so close and it looks like we have a QB

 

I'm not sure where he'll play or what teams may think of him, but Wisconsin LB Nick Herbig can sure get after the QB. 

[Chump Bailey]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

His QB was horrendous and the guy couldn't stay in the pocket to save his life. But it's something to be aware of for sure. 

 

I was just thinking the same thing - Shrader was awful against Clemson but Bergeron held his own for the most part even when matched up against Myles Murphy. 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

And if you can't defend the run, then you can't play championship caliber defense.

 

For the record, I think extending Payne is the best option. He's always healthy and has great endurance, that matters so much. But I'm not sure that's as true anymore. You need to be able to make stops on 3rd down. If you give up 5 yards a carry, but get occasional stops for no gain, that's fine as long as you get off the field on the 3rd down that will follow.

 

Current teams in the playoffs by DVOA against the run:

49ers - 2nd

Bills - 3rd

Cowboys - 5th

Jaguars - 11th

Bengals - 14th

Chiefs - 15th

Eagles - 21st

Giants - 32nd

 

Eagles are bad against the run, but have the best pass defense this season. 49ers, Bills, and Cowboys are all Top 10 against the pass too. For the record, we were 8th against the run but 13th against the pass.

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Thank you! That's very kind of you to say and there are some very knowledgeable dudes on this forum for sure. 

You’re one of ‘em.

[Skinsinparadise]

Ricky Stromberg.  4th-5th round?  After watching him, he sort of reminds me some of Chase Rouillier.  Real solid.  Not killer at any one thing but well rounded.

 

He anchors well in pass protection, strong hands.  In the run game he locks in on his target and gets in front of him, not a people mover typically but has his moments.  His balance on the move isn't always hot.

 

I watched a video about him, seems like a good guy who works hard and keeps trying to get better.  The type of player I'd guess Masko would have fun molding.   He has the size to move to guard if needed, he's just short of 320.

 

This is a decent draft IMO to find a center.    It's not loaded with killer prospects.  My favorite remains Michael-Schmitz.  But a lot of B level prospects and centers don't tend to go high so I think you can get a good one in the 3rd-5th round range.    I am watching some more of Luke Wypler, who I like, am guessing late third?  If they want a center who isn't too tall because of Howell's size as Keim hinted -- Wypler is 6 '3 which i think is short enough.  Stromberg is 6 '4.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

To push Wypler some more.  As a bonus he seems like the type of dude that Rivera would fall for in an interview.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.dispatch.com/in-depth/sports/college/football/2022/09/23/ohio-state-football-center-luke-wypler-lives-life-no-regrets/69498842007/

No 'what ifs': Ohio State center Luke Wypler seizes football like he does life

After a rough start to his Ohio State career, Luke Wypler won the starting job last year and works at it with the same passion he shows in his life.

 

The rest of spring ball was canceled. Players stayed scattered around the country and had to improvise workouts on their own. For Wypler, the couple of months away proved to be a turning point. He knew how hard he had to work to raise his game and welcomed the challenge.

“I didn’t want to come to a school where I walked in the first day and it was like, ‘Oh, this is easy,’ ” he said. “That wouldn’t be fun.”

 

He immersed himself in the Ohio State playbook. He made sure he stayed in shape and worked on his fundamentals, with an assist from an unlikely person – his mom, Michele Desimone.

“She would hold a blocking bag for me,” he said. “She’s pretty much the reason I was able to improve during COVID.”

 

During the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, Ohio State offensive lineman Luke Wypler would work out with his mom holding the blocking bag for him.

VIDEO PROVIDED BY LUKE WYPLER, THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Wypler played in only one game that abbreviated 2020 season but became the starting center unexpectedly last year and now is the leader of the Buckeyes’ offensive line.

 

“I love him to death,” quarterback C.J. Stroud said. “He's my brother for life. He’s super smart, the smartest O-lineman I've ever met in my life.”

Luke Wypler was 'non-stop'

Wypler credits his mom for his brains. He was close to a 4.0 student in high school, is a two-time OSU Scholar-Athlete and was Academic All-Big Ten last year.

Desimone is a longtime nurse, has a Ph.D. and has taught college courses.

“She’s the type of woman who worked Christmas, worked every holiday to always make sure that her patients were taken care of,” Wypler said. “My mom is just a giver. That’s the best way to describe her. She’s taught me some of the best lessons of my life.”

 

 

...“Luke is typical of a center,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “He's Type A. He wants to get everything right. He takes a lot of pride in his work and works really hard. I see him in here getting extra work, watching extra film.

 

“That's what you want out of your center because he's the guy who's got to get everybody together. He does a very, very good job of that. You’ve got to be a good communicator. You’ve got to be able to process high levels of information. You’ve got to be able to make in-game adjustments, and he really feeds off of that.”

Quarterbacks and centers are often tight. Stroud and Wypler bonded from their shared experience as first-time starters last year and the mutual respect they have for each other’s affinity for film study.

 

...My whole fear in life is I don’t want to look back and say, ‘What if?’ ” Wypler said. “I always try to go at everything full speed and never have any regrets.”

[KDawg]

Edges.

 

Will Anderson. I wasn't all that hot on him leading into this season. But he won me over a bit. I love how he played on both sides of the lines. I love how he stays square on contact. I love his coil. I love how twitchy he is. I'm not sure how well his pass rush is going to translate to the NFL, but his coil, pop, bend and degrade move is something fun for sure. He can be displaced at the LoS in the run game, but he is relentless. This guy is an absolute stud. 

 

Mules Murphy. Much different kind of player than Anderson. He's not fast twitch but he's still explosive. I know that doesn't make sense but his movement's arent quick and jittery. They are long limbed and purposeful. He explodes off the line and does a nice job on run option bending down after checking QB for ball. I love how he has a "get the ball arm" mentality as a defender. This dude has NFL star written all over him. He is stout as hell against the run, too. ANd he wins at the LoS on a routine basis. 

 

Tyree Wilson. He's kind of a hybrid of the two guys. He is more quick twitch jittery than Murphy, but is more stout on the LoS than Anderson. Has a good motor. Always looking for the ball. I noticed that he is susceptible to pulls, though. He comes across the LoS a bit high at times and a pull can knock him off balance. Doesn't have the same bend as Anderson or even Murphy. 

 

Isiah Foskey. It's hard not to notice his footwork. His feet won him a lot of reps before he ever used a move. He's stout and won't get dominated on the LoS. He has pretty decent bend. He's strong. But against Ohio State both Paris Johnson and Dawand Jones rendered him nearly invisible. 

 

Nolan Smith. Smallish and doesn't use his hands anywhere near enough. He looks like he is velcro at times to OTs. But his upside is high end. He has really good bend and a nose for getting the edge on tackles. He can be slow off the ball at times, too. He needs some development but is a traitsy guy that can overcome all of that as long as he has time to develop. 

 

Felix Unudike. He's a LoS guy. Meaning he's not a high win rate guy but he's also not a guy that gets moved or displaced a whole bunch. He peaks inside a lot, and I'm not sure if that's scheme, but he does it even at times where the force is a high safety. Don't love that either way. He gets a bit nosey. He's not a fire setter but he can take on doubles and maintain his low leverage to not get displaced and moves well in pursuit.

 

Zach Harrison is a dog. He's not a quick twitch guy. Or a long limbed destroyer. He doesn't have wild burst. But he is EXTREMELY disciplined. He feathers extremely well, moves well laterally without a ton of wasted steps, can get to space quickly and understands what offensive teams are trying to accomplish and can beat them to the punch. He has good hands, not great. But he has a good punch. Pursues real well down the line. 

 

BJ Ojulari is different than the other edges listed so far. I actually think he has tremendous scheme versatility. Uses a rip and a swim to his advantage and can make OTs look silly. Good chop move and he does a nice job of circling the prey and finding the sack. I have some concerns that he pass rushes too vertically and opens lanes. I also notice when he starts using his most effective rush moves he takes really big steps and opens gaps. But he's athletic and strong.

 

Laiatu Latu. Versatile, which is a good match for us. Can play some linebacker as well as edge. As a team that likes to use Ends in that kind of role it may be better suited to a guy like Latu. Good pass rusher that gets his hands up and is productive. His wins are mostly effort wins, which has its place, but he's not a "win the rep in the beginning and leave no doubt" kind of guy. Hustle and motor. Wuuld be valuable specs guy as well.

 

So far, this edge group is really talented. There's not a guy I've watched so far that I look at and say, "eh. Nah." There are a few who I'm not as much enamored with and I wouldn't go out of my way to promote. But this is a deep group. 

 

Little bit of a shocker at my #1, but I don't think it's all that wild.

 

1. Myles Murphy

2. Will Anderson

3. Tyree Wilson

4. Isaiah Foskey

5. Zach Harrison

6. BJ Ojulari

7. Nolan Smith

8. Laiatu Latu

9. Felix Unudike

 

The top 3 are high end prospect/potential dudes.

 

Next 3 are guy who I'm pretty sure can be steady contributors and could develop into more.

 

Smith has very high end potential but a slightly lower floor.

 

I think the last two are guys who can have steady careers and see time and make a difference, but not every down guys and won't dominate often. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by KDawg

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

You’re one of ‘em.

 

Coming from you KDawg that is high praise indeed and I thank you from the heart.

[RWJ]

Early, way early but here a crazy mock in which I trade and got a ton of players:

 

 

[ToaCommander]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Edges.

 

Will Anderson. I wasn't all that hot on him leading into this season. But he won me over a bit. I love how he played on both sides of the lines. I love how he stays square on contact. I love his coil. I love how twitchy he is. I'm not sure how well his pass rush is going to translate to the NFL, but his coil, pop, bend and degrade move is something fun for sure. He can be displaced at the LoS in the run game, but he is relentless. This guy is an absolute stud. 

 

Mules Murphy. Much different kind of player than Anderson. He's not fast twitch but he's still explosive. I know that doesn't make sense but his movement's arent quick and jittery. They are long limbed and purposeful. He explodes off the line and does a nice job on run option bending down after checking QB for ball. I love how he has a "get the ball arm" mentality as a defender. This dude has NFL star written all over him. He is stout as hell against the run, too. ANd he wins at the LoS on a routine basis. 

 

Tyree Wilson. He's kind of a hybrid of the two guys. He is more quick twitch jittery than Murphy, but is more stout on the LoS than Anderson. Has a good motor. Always looking for the ball. I noticed that he is susceptible to pulls, though. He comes across the LoS a bit high at times and a pull can knock him off balance. Doesn't have the same bend as Anderson or even Murphy. 

 

Isiah Foskey. It's hard not to notice his footwork. His feet won him a lot of reps before he ever used a move. He's stout and won't get dominated on the LoS. He has pretty decent bend. He's strong. But against Ohio State both Paris Johnson and Dawand Jones rendered him nearly invisible. 

 

Nolan Smith. Smallish and doesn't use his hands anywhere near enough. He looks like he is velcro at times to OTs. But his upside is high end. He has really good bend and a nose for getting the edge on tackles. He can be slow off the ball at times, too. He needs some development but is a traitsy guy that can overcome all of that as long as he has time to develop. 

 

Felix Unudike. He's a LoS guy. Meaning he's not a high win rate guy but he's also not a guy that gets moved or displaced a whole bunch. He peaks inside a lot, and I'm not sure if that's scheme, but he does it even at times where the force is a high safety. Don't love that either way. He gets a bit nosey. He's not a fire setter but he can take on doubles and maintain his low leverage to not get displaced and moves well in pursuit.

 

Zach Harrison is a dog. He's not a quick twitch guy. Or a long limbed destroyer. He doesn't have wild burst. But he is EXTREMELY disciplined. He feathers extremely well, moves well laterally without a ton of wasted steps, can get to space quickly and understands what offensive teams are trying to accomplish and can beat them to the punch. He has good hands, not great. But he has a good punch. Pursues real well down the line. 

 

BJ Ojulari is different than the other edges listed so far. I actually think he has tremendous scheme versatility. Uses a rip and a swim to his advantage and can make OTs look silly. Good chop move and he does a nice job of circling the prey and finding the sack. I have some concerns that he pass rushes too vertically and opens lanes. I also notice when he starts using his most effective rush moves he takes really big steps and opens gaps. But he's athletic and strong.

 

Laiatu Latu. Versatile, which is a good match for us. Can play some linebacker as well as edge. As a team that likes to use Ends in that kind of role it may be better suited to a guy like Latu. Good pass rusher that gets his hands up and is productive. His wins are mostly effort wins, which has its place, but he's not a "win the rep in the beginning and leave no doubt" kind of guy. Hustle and motor. Wuuld be valuable specs guy as well.

 

So far, this edge group is really talented. There's not a guy I've watched so far that I look at and say, "eh. Nah." There are a few who I'm not as much enamored with and I wouldn't go out of my way to promote. But this is a deep group. 

 

Little bit of a shocker at my #1, but I don't think it's all that wild.

 

1. Myles Murphy

2. Will Anderson

3. Tyree Wilson

4. Isaiah Foskey

5. Zach Harrison

6. BJ Ojulari

7. Nolan Smith

8. Laiatu Latu

9. Felix Unudike

 

The top 3 are high end prospect/potential dudes.

 

Next 3 are guy who I'm pretty sure can be steady contributors and could develop into more.

 

Smith has very high end potential but a slightly lower floor.

 

I think the last two are guys who can have steady careers and see time and make a difference, but not every down guys and won't dominate often. 

 

Thanks.. love the analysis and ranking.

 

Would you or one of our regular draftniks have one for the CBs? Looking at the various mock drafts out there, the rankings amongst who are the top 5 CBs of the draft varies alot... with the likes of Kelee Ringo, Joey Porter Jr, Devon Witherspoon, Cam Smith, Christian Gonzalez ,Brian Branch, Jaylon jones etc...

 

Thanks 

[Est.1974]

13 hours ago, RWJ said:

Payne had one good season. His contract year this year.  I don't pay the guy.  I tag him and then trade him for as much as we can get for him. I sign Sweat instead to a LTD. JMO.  

Interesting take, I’m the opposite. Give Payne a deal and move Sweat on if his demands are too high. I think our DE situation is mildly overrated. 

[Panninho]

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Interesting take, I’m the opposite. Give Payne a deal and move Sweat on if his demands are too high. I think our DE situation is mildly overrated. 

 

I agree that Payne is the better player out of the two and that our DE position is overrated.

 

But I would still like a tag & trade scenario for Payne. While I agree that Payne is a really good player who would be hard to replace when he is at his best, I am not 100% sure whether we'll get him at his best once he signed that contract. I feel like his athletic potential is almost limitless and we got some amazing games out of him (e.g. against the Buffalo Bills last year where he looked absolutely unstoppable) only for him to disappear for a couple of games afterwards. This year it felt like it was the first year where he was able to produce high-level play more constantly - and it was in a contract year.

He wants to get paid and I absolutely get that, but the way he makes it clear it's all about the big payday makes me a bit hesitant. Was it a learning curve that made him produce better this year or was it the hunt for the payday? I am not sure I would feel super stoked about him getting a contract that will likely exceed Allen's contract who I did not have any of these feelings for.

 

Some other factors that I think play into that wish of mine are:

1. A long-term deal for either Sweat or Payne seems unlikely anyways as the ownership situation is unclear as is the GM & HC position beyond the upcoming season. I don't think our front office is in the position to hand out big money this offseason. So Payne and Sweat will probably have to look elsewhere for money anyways and I want to get as much as possible in return - and not some (almost) 4th round picks one year later

 

2. The DT position in the league might be at the highest talent level in years and we drafted a guy in the 2nd round last year + have a good looking rookie in Ridgeway. So it's not like we open a gaping hole if we let him walk and we can probably sign someone decent for additional depth. There will be a dropoff in talent and production but I think we would still be fine.

 

3. I want us to load up on draft capital for 2024 in order to make the position of a GM (which will very likely be available) as attractive as possible. A new owner in itself will make us a better option for the top GM candidates anyways but if we have a lot of draft capital on top we might be able to land a really good GM.

 

The last point is also why I think we should entertain trade-down scenarios this season if there ain't a player available we absolutely love. The upcoming season is very likely not going to be a pretty one.