2021 Playoff Tracker Thread

[88Comrade2000]

The competition:

 

49ers 8-6  TEN, HOU, LAR - San Fran will beat Tenn and Houston. Likely finish: 10-7

PHI 6-7  WAS, NYG, WAS DAL : Philly will win at least 2, maybe 3 if Dallas doesn't need their final game.  Likely finish: 8-9 or 9-8

MIN 7-7  LAR, GB, CHI : Minny will win one more game. Likely finish: 8-9

ATL 6-8  DET, BUF, NO: Atlanta will win one more game. Likely finish: 7-10

NO 7-7 MIA, CAR, ATL: New Orleans will win 2 more games, maybe all 3. Likely finish: 10-7 or 9-8

 

The only way Washington makes the playoffs is by going 4-0 and finishing 10-7.  That isn't happening.  Maybe a 3 way tie at 9-8 might get us in but I don't see going 9-8 either. 2-2 seems likely. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

17 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The competition:

 

49ers 8-6  TEN, HOU, LAR - San Fran will beat Tenn and Houston. Likely finish: 10-7

PHI 6-7  WAS, NYG, WAS DAL : Philly will win at least 2, maybe 3 if Dallas doesn't need their final game.  Likely finish: 8-9 or 9-8

MIN 7-7  LAR, GB, CHI : Minny will win one more game. Likely finish: 8-9

ATL 6-8  DET, BUF, NO: Atlanta will win one more game. Likely finish: 7-10

NO 7-7 MIA, CAR, ATL: New Orleans will win 2 more games, maybe all 3. Likely finish: 10-7 or 9-8

 

The only way Washington makes the playoffs is by going 4-0 and finishing 10-7.  That isn't happening.  Maybe a 3 way tie at 9-8 might get us in but I don't see going 9-8 either. 2-2 seems likely. 

 

It's not the only way.

 

Also, why are you sure the 49ers will beat the Titans?...and Miami has won 5 in a row, so they could dispatch the Saints when they play.

 

 

I didn't realize this, but if we beat the Eagles, and next weekend the Rams beat the Vikings and the Dolphins beat the Saints, we move back into the 7th seed--even if we lose to the Cowboys next week.

 

There's also a scenario where WFT, Minnesota, Philly, New Orleans, and Atlanta all end up 8-9...apparently WFT would hold a number of tiebreakers over all of those teams and would get the last wildcard spot.

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Califan007

[Cooleyfan1993]

We move back into the 7 seed with a win tonight, at least for the time being. 

[fearlessNelms]

There is also a scenario where we win out to go 10-7 and don't get in. Assuming Dallas, Arizona and TB all get at least one more win to get to 11 wins and if the Rams get at least 2 more wins to get to 11 wins and the 49er's won out to get to 11 wins, us and the Saints win out and Minnesota loses at least one more, that would leave us and the Saints at 10-7 in a tie for the 7th seed, with them winning the tie breaker based on their head to head win over us. 

 

I know that's a whole lot of if's and that scenario is not likely to happen, but it is a possible one that would leave us out at 10-7. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by fearlessNelms

[kleese]

8 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The competition:

 

49ers 8-6  TEN, HOU, LAR - San Fran will beat Tenn and Houston. Likely finish: 10-7

PHI 6-7  WAS, NYG, WAS DAL : Philly will win at least 2, maybe 3 if Dallas doesn't need their final game.  Likely finish: 8-9 or 9-8

MIN 7-7  LAR, GB, CHI : Minny will win one more game. Likely finish: 8-9

ATL 6-8  DET, BUF, NO: Atlanta will win one more game. Likely finish: 7-10

NO 7-7 MIA, CAR, ATL: New Orleans will win 2 more games, maybe all 3. Likely finish: 10-7 or 9-8

 

The only way Washington makes the playoffs is by going 4-0 and finishing 10-7.  That isn't happening.  Maybe a 3 way tie at 9-8 might get us in but I don't see going 9-8 either. 2-2 seems likely. 

Yes, if you go 15-0 on your above predictions, this is what would happen. Odds of that? Quite slim. Odds of us getting in at 9-8 remain VERY good. There are many paths we could take to get in at 9-8; one of those paths would take a hit if the Niners win in Tenn Thursday so that’s one to watch. 
 

Minnesota’s win in Chicago further LESSENS our chances to get in at 8-9, but probably INCREASES the chances we get in at 9-8. Remember, we can get in at 9-8 even if NOLA is 9-8 as long as someone else is also 9-8. It also technically keeps us in the 7 seed for now if we win tonight— as a matter of fact, I believe the winner tonight is the current 7 seed. 

[Warhead36]

55 minutes ago, kleese said:

Yes, if you go 15-0 on your above predictions, this is what would happen. Odds of that? Quite slim. Odds of us getting in at 9-8 remain VERY good. There are many paths we could take to get in at 9-8; one of those paths would take a hit if the Niners win in Tenn Thursday so that’s one to watch. 
 

Minnesota’s win in Chicago further LESSENS our chances to get in at 8-9, but probably INCREASES the chances we get in at 9-8. Remember, we can get in at 9-8 even if NOLA is 9-8 as long as someone else is also 9-8. It also technically keeps us in the 7 seed for now if we win tonight— as a matter of fact, I believe the winner tonight is the current 7 seed. 

I think the VIkes are the 7 seed if the Eagles win.

[kleese]

Philly game was a bummer. Bad luck really. Credit Philly for doing what they do quite well, but we were just decimated. Thought we played as tough as could reasonably be expected. Certainly with the injuries and rona, it FEELS over, but it’s not— not at all actually. 
 

Do we still control our own destiny? No. Technically, no. But I think, realistically, yes. 
 

If we win our final 3 games, I believe it is likely we would make playoffs. Not a lock. But likely. 
 

There are ways we could still get in at 8-9, but all of those scenarios are paper thin now and would take some serious gymnastics to get there. So for now, the focus should be on “three in a row or we don’t go.” 
 

Best way to look at it is like this— we need to go 3-0; we then need two of these three things:  

 

A- Saints to NOT go 3-0 

B-49ers to go 1-2 (or 0-3) 

C-Vikings to NOT go 3-0 

 

Now, the one thing we don’t want is to finish 9-8 and tied with ONLY NOLA. For example, let’s say the Niners win at least two and get the 6 seed. Well if we win out, Saints win 2/3, we’d need SOMEONE else to also finish 9-8. That could be Atl, Min, Phi, etc. I am 99% sure we are going to win ANY multi-team tie-breaker. I’ll work on that later to make sure, but I think that’s right. 
 

So, in other words, we pretty much need to go 3-0. 
 

But really, I think a more fun/better way to look at it is this: 

 

What do we need to do to be ALIVE entering week 18? 
 

For that purpose, just win the next two. Would almost certainly find ourselves in the mix heading into final game of year. 

[hail2skins]

2 minutes ago, kleese said:

What do we need to do to be ALIVE entering week 18? 
 

For that purpose, just win the next two. Would almost certainly find ourselves in the mix heading into final game of year. 

Beating Dallas and Philly and then losing to the Glennon-led Giants would be so on brand.

[BraveWarrior]

I don't know who needs to hear this tonight, but... paloffs is not now. 

 

 

[kleese]

So, after playing around with the Playoff Machine, I came up with some stuff that could make heads explode. The short of it is this… 

 

I actually think we have a better shot of getting in at 8-9 (if one win is vs Philly) than almost anyone is going to mention. The major key to that is NOLA losing 2/3. Not sure if we’d consider that a “stretch” right now, but I’d say more likely they win 2/3. But anyway, if we go 8-9, beating Philly and NOLA loses 2/3, we’d have a really good shot to get in— we’d need Philly to lose one to Giants or Cowboys— but on thing potentially trending in our favor is that the Rams, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, and Bucs have have plenty to play for— and probably will down to the wire. 
 

The one thing that kind of messed me up was that it looks like we would not win a tie-breaker if it’s us, NOLA, and Philly. That specific three-way tie appears to be the only multi-team tie-breaker we would not win (regardless of if its at 8-9 or 9-8). 
 

In our 3-0 or we don’t go scenarios, the one team to really watch in addition to NOLA is SF. They play at Tenn, Houston, and at Rams. The one in the middle should be an easy W. But the other two are absolutely potential losses. If they were to drop both, and we win out, I am pretty sure we’d be in automatically unless Minnesota were to win out. 
 

So, to start your week… here’s a very easy rooting interest game: 

 

Thursday Night root for the Titans over 49ers. Can update again after that. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

I’m looking for my fork. Covid stole it.

[88Comrade2000]

31 minutes ago, kleese said:

So, after playing around with the Playoff Machine, I came up with some stuff that could make heads explode. The short of it is this… 

 

I actually think we have a better shot of getting in at 8-9 (if one win is vs Philly) than almost anyone is going to mention. The major key to that is NOLA losing 2/3. Not sure if we’d consider that a “stretch” right now, but I’d say more likely they win 2/3. But anyway, if we go 8-9, beating Philly and NOLA loses 2/3, we’d have a really good shot to get in— we’d need Philly to lose one to Giants or Cowboys— but on thing potentially trending in our favor is that the Rams, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, and Bucs have have plenty to play for— and probably will down to the wire. 
 

The one thing that kind of messed me up was that it looks like we would not win a tie-breaker if it’s us, NOLA, and Philly. That specific three-way tie appears to be the only multi-team tie-breaker we would not win (regardless of if its at 8-9 or 9-8). 
 

In our 3-0 or we don’t go scenarios, the one team to really watch in addition to NOLA is SF. They play at Tenn, Houston, and at Rams. The one in the middle should be an easy W. But the other two are absolutely potential losses. If they were to drop both, and we win out, I am pretty sure we’d be in automatically unless Minnesota were to win out. 
 

So, to start your week… here’s a very easy rooting interest game: 

 

Thursday Night root for the Titans over 49ers. Can update again after that. 

The Titans aren't the same without Henry.  They have lost 3 of the last 4 games.  Texans, @ Pats, @Steelers. Their only win was Jags.

San Fran is good enough to beat them and I expect them to win. 

[BleedBNG]

22 minutes ago, kleese said:

I actually think we have a better shot of getting in at 8-9 (if one win is vs Philly) than almost anyone is going to mention. The major key to that is NOLA losing 2/3. Not sure if we’d consider that a “stretch” right now, but I’d say more likely they win 2/3. But anyway, if we go 8-9, beating Philly and NOLA loses 2/3, we’d have a really good shot to get in— we’d need Philly to lose one to Giants or Cowboys— but on thing potentially trending in our favor is that the Rams, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, and Bucs have have plenty to play for— and probably will down to the wire. 

Assuming we beat Philly at home, I think the team with the easier schedule the rest of the way is NOLA. They could finish out 10-7 and own the last seed. 

Vikes - Rams and Packers

Eagles - (assuming and hoping we beat them in the rematch) and Cowboys

Saints - Dolphins, Panthers and Falcons

49ers could go 9-8 and end up last seed but it's either them or the Saints

[kleese]

9 hours ago, BleedBNG said:

Assuming we beat Philly at home, I think the team with the easier schedule the rest of the way is NOLA. They could finish out 10-7 and own the last seed. 

Vikes - Rams and Packers

Eagles - (assuming and hoping we beat them in the rematch) and Cowboys

Saints - Dolphins, Panthers and Falcons

49ers could go 9-8 and end up last seed but it's either them or the Saints

I wouldn’t fall into the trap of being overly influenced by the most recent thing you’ve seen. As happens almost weekly in the NFL, things don’t translate all that much week to week— especially with the more flawed teams battling for the WC. 
 

Niners probably should have lost in Cincy two weeks ago and this past week the Falcons had the ball inside the Niners 10 on multiple occasions and kept blowing it. Not to say the Niners haven’t deserved their recent wins, but point being, margins are small. They could absolutely lose in Tenn and they would likely be underdogs in LA if that game week 18 matters to the Rams. 9 wins for them, not out of the question. And if the Niners end with 9 wins and we win out, then it doesn’t even matter what the Saints do. 
 

If the Niners take care of business, then it’s on to NOLA for us— if they win 2/3 (which I’d say is most likely) we’d need to win out and hope someone other than Philly also finishes with 9 wins (Minny being the most likely there). But it’s also not out of the question AT ALL to me that the Saints lose 2/3. Their offense is really bad. Every game will probably be a grind. Dolphins playing well— then they end with two division games. I don’t think NOLA going 1-2 down the stretch is some wild, impossible dream. 

[HigSkin]

 

[kleese]

17 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

One thing to note on this, the Vikings would need to lose to the Rams or Packers but not BOTH. Under this scenario we would need the Vikings to go exactly 1-1. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

2 minutes ago, kleese said:

One thing to note on this, the Vikings would need to lose to the Rams or Packers but not BOTH. Under this scenario we would need the Vikings to go exactly 1-1. 

Yep. I could see the Vikings losing both of those games easily though. 
 

but, gotta take care of Dallas first. SNF is a must win. 
 

as for the saints, our best bet is for the dolphins to beat them on MNF. I dont see the panthers beating them. 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Yep. I could see the Vikings losing both of those games easily though. 
 

but, gotta take care of Dallas first. SNF is a must win. 
 

as for the saints, our best bet is for the dolphins to beat them on MNF. I dont see the panthers beating them. 

 

The interesting thing with SNF is that the Cowboys don't seem to have much to play for. I know they eventually need to win a game, but they aren't in any hurry to clinch the division so I think they could have a letdown. 

 

I actually think the Skins are more likely to beat Dallas than Philly. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

4 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

The interesting thing with SNF is that the Cowboys don't seem to have much to play for. I know they eventually need to win a game, but they aren't in any hurry to clinch the division so I think they could have a letdown. 

 

I actually think the Skins are more likely to beat Dallas than Philly. 

I could be wrong, but didn’t Dallas win the division since we lost? Or do the eagles now have a chance to steal the division from Dallas by winning out and Dallas losing out?

[TD_washingtonredskins]

3 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

I could be wrong, but didn’t Dallas win the division since we lost? Or do the eagles now have a chance to steal the division from Dallas by winning out and Dallas losing out?

 

No, I know they haven't clinched...but they have a 3-game lead with 3 games to play. So, they just have a lot of margin for error is all I'm saying. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

Just now, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

No, I know they haven't clinched...but they have a 3-game lead with 3 games to play. So, they just have a lot of margin for error is all I'm saying. 

That’s interesting. I was playing around with the ESPN playoff machine just to see if Philly could win the division by winning all 3, and Dallas losing all 3, and the lowest seed the eagles could get would be 6th, not 4th. So if it’s not possible for Philly to win the division, then how has Dallas not won it now? 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

That’s interesting. I was playing around with the ESPN playoff machine just to see if Philly could win the division by winning all 3, and Dallas losing all 3, and the lowest seed the eagles could get would be 6th, not 4th. So if it’s not possible for Philly to win the division, then how has Dallas not won it now? 

 

There must be some 8th-level tie-breaker that the ESPN playoff machine isn't considering that Philly could still hit or they'd have the division clinched. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

Just now, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

There must be some 8th-level tie-breaker that the ESPN playoff machine isn't considering that Philly could still hit or they'd have the division clinched. 

Huh. Yeah that could be it. 
 

i did read that if we had tied with Philly last night, then Dallas would’ve won the division. But yeah I think it’s a long shot that they don’t win it now. Would take a monumental collapse 

[JSSkinz]

Last night was really a must win, anything can happen but the Saints play Miami, Carolina, and Atlanta and they've recently got some players back healthy.

 

I actually think we have a better chance of San Fran losing to the Rams and Titans but if they beat the Titans this weekend that goes out the window.

 

We also no longer own the conference tiebreakers like we did a few weeks ago due to the recent conference losses.

 

I would be shocked if we made it, we need some serious help.

[kleese]

32 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Last night was really a must win, anything can happen but the Saints play Miami, Carolina, and Atlanta and they've recently got some players back healthy.

 

I actually think we have a better chance of San Fran losing to the Rams and Titans but if they beat the Titans this weekend that goes out the window.

 

We also no longer own the conference tiebreakers like we did a few weeks ago due to the recent conference losses.

 

I would be shocked if we made it, we need some serious help.

The "serious" help isn't really true... win out and either the Niners lose 2 or Saints lose 1 and we are most likely in. The only way we wouldn't be is if we wound up in a 9-8 tie with ONLY the Saints. We would win almost all other multi-team tie-breakers.