The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

I am going to enjoy the next two weeks.  Not often we are taking a QB this high on a touted draft for QBs.  I want Maye but am good with Daniels if that's what they do.

 

Will see.  In the meantime I'll throw another match into the fire by bringing in the polarizing example of this very discussion.    If RG3 weighs in, it must be important....

 

 

 

[skinsfan66]

56 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

 

GMAP is a smart guy.  As a smart GM he brought Penix in for the standard duel dilligence.  I think he also brought him to get information on him.  Never know when you might need that information in the coming years.  I also think he brought him in to learn.  Meaning, develop a draft profile and see it that profile works in the coming years.  Have to do the work and research to get better at drafting.

I think they brought him in to see if he fits their team and if they can build with him. Along with McCarthy, Daniels and Maye the same thing. Just like they have been doing in the Coach and Free Agencey searches. It turned out Quinn was the best for them after taking their time and doing their homework on each. They had not decided on anyone in the process.  F.A. no big singings and what fit their team was the theme. It's not going to surprise me if they trade down and take a different QB rather than the other 2. The media, experts, fans have been fooled twice now why not 3. It's going to be what they think and their choice. It will not because they did not leave a stone unturned. That's what I am thinking. 

Edited April 11 by skinsfan66

[mistertim]

RG3's endorsement should basically be a hint that we should draft Maye.   

[triggered]

For every RG3 is a Haloti Ngata lurking somewhere

[Ghost of]

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

It's not like the medical field, or any field where the experts within it are genuine, super smart, highly professional, constantly renewing and cultivating their knowledge, and can't perform even the most basic functions of their job without authentic expertise.  

 

Hell, you can apply that to the entertainment business outside of sports. I mean someone greenlit Ghostbusters 2016.

 

But as to the quote, I have personal experience with friends and family who would cause you to question the above. I don't mean flubbing taking your temperature or diagnosing a broken arm, obviously. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

RG3's endorsement should basically be a hint that we should draft Maye.   

Yeah its kinda like when Rivera said we should draft Daniels. Just go the complete opposite way.

 

We should ask Dan Snyder who he'd take. Guarantee that guy will bust and the opposite will be in Canton one day.

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

am going to enjoy the next two weeks.  Not often we are taking a QB this high on a touted draft for QBs.  I want Maye but am good with Daniels if that's what they do.

Got to be honest, part of me hopes that we have no idea at all what’s coming right up until the pick is in. That would be great.

[Warhead36]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

This is why I can never turn off my brain, forget my opinions, and just accept these sorts of appeals to authority.  The NFL has always been full of hacks that got where they were based on friendships and nepotism.

 

It's not like the medical field, or any field where the experts within it are genuine, super smart, highly professional, constantly renewing and cultivating their knowledge, and can't perform even the most basic functions of their job without authentic expertise.  It's an entertainment business centered around a ****ing kid's game.  It's also not like finding a QB is some impossible riddle to solve either, even the God Damn Jags, Bengals, Bills, and Chargers all managed to do it.  If we can't manage to do it with everything served up on a plate for us, then we are hopeless.

So this might sound crazy but I think this notion that people in the NFL are automatically smarter than fans all of the time is not necessarily true anymore. Not nowadays when there is so much more information out there. We have access to film and can analyze etc. Its not like the 80s or 90s or even early 00s. The average fan is not only MUCH smarter now, but they have access to almost the same amounts of information.

 

I mean look at how often coaches bungle simple things like timeout usage and clock management. I guarantee there are fans whos only experience is playing Madden that could manage those things better.

 

Look at our last few drafts with Rivera. You can compare them to who people on this message board would have preferred and our guys would have done a better job then supposed "experts" like Rivera, Mayhew, Hurney etc.

 

Just about everyone here would have taken Gonzalez over Forbes last year. And that was 100% the right choice. But our "experts" got that wrong. Just like they got Jamin Davis over christian Darrisaw or JOK wrong. Just like they got Jahan Dotson over Chris Olave or Kyle Hamilton wrong. And this isn't hindsight being 20/20. It was general consensus on here.

 

Blindly accepting authority figures is dumb. They are just as prone to effing up as anyone else. And often times, those of us on the outside actually end up getting it right more than they do.

Edited April 11 by Warhead36

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Got to be honest, part of me hopes that we have no idea at all what’s coming right up until the pick is in. That would be great.

 

I think that's possible.  Agree it would make the draft fun. 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

this might sound crazy

I think this Drake Maye experience has been life changing for you.

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think that's possible.  Agree it would make the draft fun. 

It would be wild, right.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

15 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

So I take it that the perceived "dumb thing" you are referring to is to draft Daniels?  

There is also a similar chance that they draft Maye and he ends up being added to your list and ends up being the "dumb thing".   

 

I recall nearly 100% of us thinking Chase Young was the no brainer pick.  Turns out it was the dumb thing.  

 

Exactly. 

[Idaho fan]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think that's possible.  Agree it would make the draft fun. 

Except someone here will report it before our pick and ruin it for everyone.  OR they will go to a commercial and just let us know when they come back before talking about the Patriots.  lol

[Ghost of]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

So this might sound crazy but I think this notion that people in the NFL are automatically smarter than fans all of the time is not necessarily true anymore. Not nowadays when there is so much more information out there. We have access to film and can analyze etc. Its not like the 80s or 90s or even early 00s.

 

I mean look at how often coaches bungle simple things like timeout usage and clock management. I guarantee there are fans whos only experience is playing Madden that could manage those things better.

 

Blindly accepting authority figures is dumb. They are just as prone to effing up as anyone else. And often times, those of us on the outside actually end up getting it right more than they do.

 

Crazy? we had this same discussion back in the 00s. There are ways of intuiting things that go beyond statistical measures. Say, for instance, you're a Michigan student telling other people at school that Tom Brady had a magic about him and he'll be good in the NFL.  But what round did he go in? By qualified NFL scouts and GMs?  Why did that student at Michigan get it right?  Why did some nutjob on Extremeskins not only call Brunell from the first game of 2004 as a disaster but then broke down his drops and explained one reason why he was failing?  Did he know something Gibbs and company did not?

 

Perhaps so.

[Est.1974]

I hope JJ absolutely nails his visit with us.

[MartinC]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am going to enjoy the next two weeks.  Not often we are taking a QB this high on a touted draft for QBs.  I want Maye but am good with Daniels if that's what they do.

 

Will see.  In the meantime I'll throw another match into the fire by bringing in the polarizing example of this very discussion.    If RG3 weighs in, it must be important....

 

 

 

We desperately need a face palm emoji.

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

Don’t get why there seems to be a load of fuss on socials etc, what a great problem to have Maye, Daniels or even JJ, it’s an awesome position to be in, no Snyder, no Ron.

 

I’m just sat back chilling, looking at the upside of all of them and getting excited 😎

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I hope JJ absolutely nails his visit with us.

JJ is such a wild card. Like honestly, I actually don't really hate him. He checks a lot of boxes. But the sample size of him throwing is just so small and he hasn't shown the ability to elevate a program. But I've started to turn around on him.

 

If we were picking like in the teens I'd be thrilled with him. I don't like him at 2 but at this point honestly I'd prefer McCarthy to Daniels. At least he looks like an NFL QB albeit much smaller sample size. I don't think taking McCarthy would be as much of a disaster as taking Daniels would be.

[BMagic]

1 hour ago, Blanka said:

Interesting that the basketball analogy was brought up because through this whole cycle the Maye pre draft talk reminds me so much of Anthony Edwards coming out. For AE the percentages from the field were nothing special 40% & 29% from three but you pick any game and at least a couple times a game he’d do something that only a handful of guys in decades could do. You’d see that every shot was super contested due to teams playing off the others giving him all the attention. Drake gets knocked for completion percentage but then you watch and see drops and poor separation from pass catchers, poor line play.
 

Both were big time recruits who stayed home at lesser schools. Drake was originally an Alabama commit that flipped to UNC. Edwards was thought to be Kentucky’s to lose before staying home to play for UGA. UGA in basketball is worse than UNC in football but Drake’s 23 season and Ant’s one and done season were one and the same. The supporting cast just made everything tougher. Even the pre draft process he alongside LaMelo was seen as the most risky to be a bust. This was head scratching to me because AE was SO easy to see coming when taking everything into context. Like Maye is to me.

 

AE developed somewhat of a hitch in his jumpshot as the one and done season progressed which clearly came from poor coaching on UGA staff. Early in that season there was no hitch and by midseason of his rookie season the hitch was gone. Similar to Drake’s footwork becoming more sloppy under Lindsey’s tutelage.
 

AE was said to not be a winner because they didn’t make the tourney and it’s like the team he played on didn’t matter to pundits. As is the talk with Drake with this year’s team. Now the Wolves are one of the best teams in the tough Western Conference with him leading the way at 22. This feels like football deja vu. If the downtrodden Wolves didn’t overthink it hopefully we don’t either. 

 

I remember that draft! I had both LaMelo and AE rated as star players after they developed. AE was a freak athlete and I remember people questioning his love for basketball, but dude is as intense a competitor as it gets. Projecting is really hard even for the best of the best GMs. I still think about what if Josh Harris' very own 76ers had drafted Jayson Tatum instead of Markelle Fultz to pair with Embiid.

 

I'm more calm in this situation because Kingsbury had the eye to convince Mahomes to come to Texas Tech and to quickly jettison Josh Rosen in favor of Kyler Murray. Kyler hasn't been a slam dunk, but the traits were there and it seems to be because of his work ethic regarding studying his playbook more than him just outright not having "IT" Kingsbury seems to have an eye for the traits to look for in a prospect and will help Peters, whom I sure has an eye for the traits as well since the 49ers ended up taking Purdy. He even admits in a redraft, he'd take Purdy a lot earlier of course.

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Going Commando said:

@Skinsinparadise you are right that there is a very real possibility we pick Jayden over Maye.  You've made that point clear.  What you haven't made, and will never make, is a convincing case that it isn't a completely obvious and damning mistake.

 

There is no equivocation on this, it's a huge mistake.  It's taking RGIII over Andrew Luck, or Justin Fields over Trevor Lawrence.  I would immediately lose belief in this regime and this rebuild if they make this mistake, and have to spend my time waiting for it to fail and this group to be fired before we can try again.  And under no circumstances would I be willing to give Adam Peters another crack at QB.  You **** up like this and you are done.

Pretty much exactly what I feel. What also bothers me is that I keep not seeing any kind of counter to the alarm bells with him: 1 why did it take 5 freaking years and the one of the 3 best WR prospects of the past decade, and another elite mega prospect along with a flagship college football team to rehab his falling stock 2. what do you do with that frame and the hits he takes 3. what about the working through progressions, throwing to all fields, and on and on and on....

 

when I look through that athletic piece actorguy quoted:

Assistant Coach Quote on Daniels: Really? Soo much far ahead than Maye and JJ? Want to explain why he didn't produce a season remotely as good as Maye's first season as a starter until he'd played in college for FIVE <EXPLETIVE> YEARS!!!

 

Scout1: Gee, he made progress in 5 or 6 years? Shocking!!! Who would have guessed playing for half a decade, getting the best supporting cast of pass catchers in football, and getting a mulligan on 2019-2022 would suddenly make him look like a great prospect. Hmmm, can we get a Mulligan on Maye's '23, you know, Maye's 2nd season, the one that was better than literally any Daniels season ever save his last?

 

Former Head Coach/Personel Man: Wanna explain what evidence you had for any of this until '23? His fifth year? and if its sticky or if its about having two college superstars having career years? What we like to call, outlier years.

 

On Maye, it's so bad its ridiculous. The Herbert comments. He's Herbert Light. Well, all of you idiots said Herbert was Meh in '20. I remember. Now look at former gm and exec 1 quotes. If you wonder why some of us don't take these mechanics and accuracy quotes seriously, its because of precisely those quotes. One guy says he's hopeless in terms of accuracy, the other says his accuracy is elite. 

 

Its comically stupid.

 

Maybe Daniels hits, I have no idea. Maybe Maye hits, I have no idea. The only thing I know for sure is #1 Daniels concerns are much more deeply correlated to busting, then the nebulous bull---- takes I see on Maye, and #2 the argument that Daniels is ready now is belayed by what happened over his 5 years, FIVE freaking years, and the pile of examples of prospect we see that hit at the very end, then go to the league and stink, the Pickett effect. Now add in that he's a run guy, its just crazy pills time to me. I don't know if even either of them are gonna hit, they could both bust, but the arguments I see are such unmitigated bull----, I don't even know what to say beyond, "bollocks" and boy oh boy, read those quotes and why would anyone trust any of these GM's, execs, scouts. So many of the quoted arguments are such ridiculous bull----. Nothing evidence based, just tape grinding bull----, and no sense of history ("lets pretend we all knew Herbert was one of the two best QB prospects in a decade, when in fact, the same way we are trashing Maye now is exactly the way we lit up Herbert as a distant third to Burrow and Tua four years ago"). 

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, BMagic said:

 

I remember that draft! I had both LaMelo and AE rated as star players after they developed. AE was a freak athlete and I remember people questioning his love for basketball, but dude is as intense a competitor as it gets. Projecting is really hard even for the best of the best GMs. I still think about what if Josh Harris' very own 76ers had drafted Jayson Tatum instead of Markelle Fultz to pair with Embiid.

 

I'm more calm in this situation because Kingsbury had the eye to convince Mahomes to come to Texas Tech and to quickly jettison Josh Rosen in favor of Kyler Murray. Kyler hasn't been a slam dunk, but the traits were there and it seems to be because of his work ethic regarding studying his playbook more than him just outright not having "IT" Kingsbury seems to have an eye for the traits to look for in a prospect and will help Peters, whom I sure has an eye for the traits as well since the 49ers ended up taking Purdy. He even admits in a redraft, he'd take Purdy a lot earlier of course.

Rosen sucked and sucked hard. It was obvious to move on from him when they ended up with the #1 pick with Murray being available. He gets no real credit for that.

[Est.1974]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

JJ is such a wild card. Like honestly, I actually don't really hate him. He checks a lot of boxes. But the sample size of him throwing is just so small and he hasn't shown the ability to elevate a program. But I've started to turn around on him.

 

If we were picking like in the teens I'd be thrilled with him. I don't like him at 2 but at this point honestly I'd prefer McCarthy to Daniels. At least he looks like an NFL QB albeit much smaller sample size. I don't think taking McCarthy would be as much of a disaster as taking Daniels would be.

JJ is the absolute wildcard. He potentially has the most untapped potential of the lot. Or he has nothing. GMs job is to determine that isn’t it. He’s being slept on though.

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

What gets me is they're just wrong about Daniels's processing.  They push that bull**** narrative about some magic VR machine teaching him how to read a defense and that's why he could finally make plays in his fifth year as a starter, and nevermind the fact that he's playing for a great coach now and had clean pockets to throw to a bunch of elite receivers where the reads were easy and he had all day to make them.

 

One of the scouts even recognizes the parallel to Fields, but doesn't seem to recognize that Fields was a bust, and that building an NFL offense around his running ability didn't work.

 

And then the big justification for Daniels over Maye is because he'll be ready to play year one?  The kid who took five years of college ball for the lightbulb to come on is a better bet to play well in year one than the kid who was one of the best players in the country his first year as a starter?

 

It's so dumb that it literally makes me angry that these morons have the jobs that they do.

And you're soft selling how dumb it is. I know people will laugh, but the people that play high stakes fantasy are freaking smarter than these idiots. They can't afford to make such seriously fallacious arguments with their careers and $$$ on the line. The NFL recycles failures left right and center, and even gives a ton of them media jobs. If you fail in high stakes fantasy, you're done. Look at the data driven analysis you see from rotoviz, and DLF, and player profiler, and then you look at this most basic, mathematical analysis, and they are stumbling all over the place as you can see.

 

It took him FIVE YEARS. Did You not notice who he was throwing to? Malik Nabors, who would have been the WR1 in the 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 draft classes, and their other WR almost scored 20 TD's last year and was a top recruit from his class before he did that, its freaking LSU!!! 

 

I am firmly of the believe that the coach centric, coach worshipping, front office worshipping nature of the media fumbles away the truth of this which is that a lot of these guys are not much smarter than joe average idiot fan. Evan Silva and Matt Kelley did franchise breakdowns analyzing some of the stupidest front offices/GM's around back in 2021, 2022, 2023 (maybe 2020 I cant remember), they did it in April, and it was such a tour de force in illustrating how back ---ward this stuff could be. This whole story underlines it. Look at those idiotic quotes on Maye, Daniels etc? Im not even saying who will be better, just look at the gaping wide holes in the reasoning and logic being used, the lack of evidenciary support that makes any kind of workable sense. It's mind numbing. 

 

And yeah, odds are 2 of 3, and 3 of 5 or 4 of 5 of these guys are gonna bust and none of these guys are gonna own where they were wrong. You see any of these idiots owning that they totally botched the Herbert eval in '20? The Mahomes eval in '17? The Lamar eval in '18? The Howell and '22 class eval in '22? The Bryce Young eval in '23? Nope, everyone pretends they weren't wrong, or that they had Stroud #1 lol, when we know they didn't. Carolina weren't the only chuckleheads. They're all, largely, chuckleheads. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

So this might sound crazy but I think this notion that people in the NFL are automatically smarter than fans all of the time is not necessarily true anymore. Not nowadays when there is so much more information out there. We have access to film and can analyze etc. Its not like the 80s or 90s or even early 00s. The average fan is not only MUCH smarter now, but they have access to almost the same amounts of information.

 

I mean look at how often coaches bungle simple things like timeout usage and clock management. I guarantee there are fans whos only experience is playing Madden that could manage those things better.

 

Look at our last few drafts with Rivera. You can compare them to who people on this message board would have preferred and our guys would have done a better job then supposed "experts" like Rivera, Mayhew, Hurney etc.

 

Just about everyone here would have taken Gonzalez over Forbes last year. And that was 100% the right choice. But our "experts" got that wrong. Just like they got Jamin Davis over christian Darrisaw or JOK wrong. Just like they got Jahan Dotson over Chris Olave or Kyle Hamilton wrong. And this isn't hindsight being 20/20. It was general consensus on here.

 

Blindly accepting authority figures is dumb. They are just as prone to effing up as anyone else. And often times, those of us on the outside actually end up getting it right more than they do.

 

"Experts" get things wrong in the draft all the time.  No doubt.   Especially at QB so many of them bust.

 

Not directed at you but some of the posts I am reading.  And they are all good and entertaining so this isn't me hitting anyone but explaining how some come off like walking paradoxes to me.

 

I responded to a post the other day where someone said this is what he deems to be the most important variables to judge a QB.  And implied that any FO who doesn't look at it the same way is off.  And then hit the idea of "experts" being just as wrong as we are.  So my response to that was aren't they actually saying he's better than the "experts" at judging QBs not just as good but better?     I've seen other posts like that, too.  And look its cool but the logic seems to be a contradiction in places.

 

Considering if we are just as good but not worse as the scouts our criteria can't still be better than theirs.   The point should be with that logic that the "experts" could be right but our takes could be right too.  It's a wash and we don't know who is right in that case.   If we are making the case that ours is better and with authority.  Then isn't the point is we are smarter than the front office people and we should be running things?  

 

I got a strong opinion about these QBs and made my case many times.  But it hits me that I've not cracked the college QB code where I know with authority who is the right pick or the wrong pick.  I know some of the hard takes of some on this thread about other QBs in the past that they've been wrong on.  And big time so.  And then sometimes right, too.  For me its the same so am not picking on anyone judgement's its all good stuff and interesting.  

 

But yeah in real time it often feels that THIS time we are right.  Last time this or that went amiss and hence that's why we were wrong. Often its some justification that we brush off or say we learned from it.   But with all the fresh new information and new narrative this time our confidence is sky high that we get it nailed.    Fans get it wrong.  FO get it wrong.  Do I think fans do it better?  Nope.  I get the argument that the FO might not get it better.  But if we take the argument to why we are right and they are wrong -- then we aren't saying we are just as good as them, we are saying we are better at judging than they are.

Edited April 11 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

"Herbert lite" for Maye is an interesting take. I guess in terms of actual size, sure. I think their arm strength is comparable. But Maye is much more aggressive than Herbert was, so I think he's actually closer to Josh Allen in that regard. There was some tweet posted here not long ago that was funny: "Maye = Herbert after doing 6 lines of coke"

[BMagic]

11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Rosen sucked and sucked hard. It was obvious to move on from him when they ended up with the #1 pick with Murray being available. He gets no real credit for that.

 

I agree. The Commanders had the chance to move on from Haskins to take Tua/Herbert and didn’t pull the trigger. Few understand the law of diminishing returns. The Bears should have gotten out of the Justin Fields business in the Stroud/Young/Richardson class, if not earlier, and are very and I mean very fortunate to be in the position to pick Caleb Williams. For Kliff to walk into a new situation and convince them to move on from the dude they just took in the very last draft still took some stones.