The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

who says they have to?  We're talking two or three spots and a decent chance to still get who we want.  One extra first, or a second and third would still be worth it

 

We're almost certainly not getting Maye or Daniels if we move down 2 or 3 spots. Even when one of them slips to 3, someone else will leapfrog us.

 

This obsession some people have with trading back while we're in a prime position to pick up an elite blue chip QB prospect for the first time in over 10 years (and without giving up a king's ransom to move up) is utterly baffling.

Edited April 7 by mistertim

[MrJL]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

We're almost certainly not getting Maye or Daniels if we move down 2 or 3 spots. Even when one of them slips to 3, someone else will leapfrog us.

 

This obsession some people have with trading back while we're in a prime position to pick up an elite blue chip QB prospect for the first time in over 10 years (and without giving up a king's ransom to move up) is utterly baffling.

dude, if we trade back two spots our pick would be used for MHJ,, then one of the QBs would be taken at three by the Pats and then there's no other place to leapfrog us

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, MrJL said:

dude, if we trade back two spots our pick would be used for MHJ,, then one of the QBs would be taken at three by the Pats and then there's no other place to leapfrog us

 

Dude, nobody is going to give that much up for a WR when he's almost certainly going to slip past 3 anyway. If someone trades up to 2 it would be for a QB.

 

We're not trading back; it would be so dumb and such a huge risk because we'd then be out of control of our own destiny. We're staying at 2. Can we please stop with that silliness and get back to the regular silliness of debating between Maye and Daniels?

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, MrJL said:

dude, if we trade back two spots our pick would be used for MHJ,, then one of the QBs would be taken at three by the Pats and then there's no other place to leapfrog us

 

Why would Arizona trade up to 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr? 

[MrJL]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Why would Arizona trade up to 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr? 

because the Chargers could try to swing a trade to jump to 2 or 3 since they lost Allen and Williams.  There's been trades in the NFL draft of one spot to ensure no one else jumps

[mistertim]

12 minutes ago, MrJL said:

because the Chargers could try to swing a trade to jump to 2 or 3 since they lost Allen and Williams.  There's been trades in the NFL draft of one spot to ensure no one else jumps

 

Nobody is paying the cost to trade up to #2 for a WR. Especially in such a stacked WR class where you have, at minimum, 3 elite blue chip prospects at the position without a ton of difference in their quality.

 

The Cards will wait and see who falls to them. 98% chance Harrison is still there when they pick anyway, as they'll know QBs are probably going 1, 2, and 3. Even if something nuts did happen and some loon gave up a king's ransom to move to 3 for Harrison there are still 2 elite WR prospects left.

 

This is a pure fantasy.

[Warhead36]

Good grief are there still people actually advocating trading down again? 
 

I thought we were past this madness.

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Good grief are there still people actually advocating trading down again? 
 

I thought we were past this madness.

 

Loons gonna loon.

[MrJL]

16 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Nobody is paying the cost to trade up to #2 for a WR. Especially in such a stacked WR class where you have, at minimum, 3 elite blue chip prospects at the position without a ton of difference in their quality.

 

The Cards will wait and see who falls to them. 98% chance Harrison is still there when they pick anyway, as they'll know QBs are probably going 1, 2, and 3. Even if something nuts did happen and some loon gave up a king's ransom to move to 3 for Harrison there are still 2 elite WR prospects left.

 

This is a pure fantasy.

 ah, the things I'd heard suggested MHJ was a quite a bit better than Nabors

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, MrJL said:

 ah, the things I'd heard suggested MHJ was a quite a bit better than Nabors

 

It's not happening. Just give it up please. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

For those who summarily dismiss, even the idea of considering offers to trade back in the draft, here’s a pretty interesting graphic on the last 10 qbs that teams that have traded up to take….

 

 

 

gg

 

 

Even giving Bryce Young the benefit of the doubt going into his second year and admitting that Goff is a solid qb, this isn’t exactly a list of future hall of famers.

[mistertim]

Yes the talk of trading back can be dismissed completely because it's not happening.

 

The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pick, and there's no reason whatsoever to think that. They haven't really even bothered to put up a smokescreen.

[skinsfan66]

11 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Drake May does not have 1000 drop backs, (952)   J.J. M. (723) per ESPN.  So what would be the rates per 700 or is he left off list for not having 1000? 

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

It seems like every PFF metric favors Maye over Daniels and a number of them, May over Williams.

J.J.  has got his share of the metrics over....too. 

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Drake May does not have 1000 drop backs, (952)   J.J. M. (723) per ESPN.  So what would be the rates per 700 or is he left off list for not having 1000? 

McCarthy didn't make his "Joining this year" cut anyway. Maye is a bit short of 1000 but 952 is close enough anyway that an extra 48 probably doesn't skew the results much.

[bird_1972]

18 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I think he means room for growth.

 

Thank you - better way of describing what I meant.

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Drake May does not have 1000 drop backs, (952)   J.J. M. (723) per ESPN.  So what would be the rates per 700 or is he left off list for not having 1000? 

 

[skinsfan66]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Dropped back to pass but ran or sacked or fumbled 167 times? Is this a pass only stat or is the running and sacks, fumbles figured in too?  I thought it was a passing metric. 

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 

Dropped back to pass but ran or sacked or fumbled 167 times? Is this a pass only stat or is the running and sacks, fumbles figured in too?  I thought it was a passing metric. 

 

Even if you're right, are you really going to split hairs over 952 vs 1000? Seems like an odd hill to die on.

[skinsfan66]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Even if you're right, are you really going to split hairs over 952 vs 1000? Seems like an odd hill to die on.

No. I got my answers not a big deal, not in the Daniels camp either, but was wondering about J.J. my no.2 pick w/small trade down and that was there.

[CommanderInTheRye]

46 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Yes the talk of trading back can be dismissed completely because it's not happening.

 

The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pick, and there's no reason whatsoever to think that. They haven't really even bothered to put up a smokescreen.

 

 

The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pic

 

What if they're currently deadlocked on Maye, Daniels and JJ?

 

Suppose after weeks of analysis, exhaustive interviews, psychological exams, analytics, private investigations, and so forth they've come to the conclusion that they like them about equally.

 

Their consensus opinion is that they are equally good (in different ways) and equally questionable (again, in different ways), so that no single qb is viewed by our decision makers as demonstrably better than any of the others.

 

That is to say they think that they are all deserving of being selected with the second overall pick and they'd be elated to draft any of them.

 

In this instance a trade down that secures them one of the three would be a win win for the Commanders.

 

Highly unlikely scenario, to be sure, but a non-zero probability nonetheless.

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

The only way it would happen is if our FO truly believed that the QBs available at 2 are absolutely not that good or worth that pic

 

What if they're currently deadlocked on Maye, Daniels and JJ?

 

Suppose after weeks of analysis, exhaustive interviews, psychological exams, analytics, private investigations, and so forth they've come to the conclusion that they like them about equally.

 

Their consensus opinion is that they are equally good (in different ways) and equally questionable (again, in different ways), so that no single qb is viewed by our decision makers as demonstrably better than any of the others.

 

That is to say they think that they are all deserving of being selected with the second overall pick and they'd be elated to draft any of them.

 

In this instance a trade down that secures them one of the three would be a win win for the Commanders.

 

Highly unlikely scenario, to be sure, but a non-zero probability nonetheless.

 

 

I mean...ok, sure it's non-zero. But so is a black hole passing by the earth and destroying it in the middle of the draft.

 

At the end of the day, the final decision is for GMAP to make. He'll take everyone else's opinion into account, but he's ultimately in charge of the draft. So I think it's almost impossible that there would truly be a "deadlock" unless GMAP himself is truly 100% torn between Maye and Daniels, which I think is extremely unlikely.

[actorguy1]

It doesn't surprise me that most coaches prefer Daniels. They are not grinding tape like scouts and GM's do, their too busy preparing for games and/or designing plays. They will watch highlights. 

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, actorguy1 said:

It doesn't surprise me that most coaches prefer Daniels. They are not grinding tape like scouts and GM's do, their too busy preparing for games and/or designing plays. They will watch highlights. 

Yeah, agree. I think even Jay Gruden (who McCloughan used to praise as an evaluator) admitted he typically only watches the highlights of a given prospect. And justified it by saying he only cares about what a prospect can do. Not surprisingly, he prefers Daniels as well. 
 

I usually take coaches’ opinions on prospects with a grain of salt - unless they’re foolishly granted the ultimate decision-making authority during the draft… as we did with Rivera. 

[Bifflog]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I mean...ok, sure it's non-zero. But so is a black hole passing by the earth and destroying it in the middle of the draft.

 

Anyone still in this thread is definitely already trapped in a black hole

 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, Whiskeypeet said:

 Great post, and I agree with you about Maye, Prefer him myself.  But you are off base about Penix's injuries.  He is healthy now and has been the last 2 years.  His injuries all occurred while he was at Indiana and he hasn't had an issue since then. To say he has rarely finished a season healthy is just false.

Well, if thats the limit of the package for trading down, I'd not do it and take Maye.  Really don't want any part of Daniels, although I can see his floor might not be poor.  Again, prefer Penix of the prospects but part of that is definitely the value that would be added from the trade down.  If the value in the trade isn't there, the move is questionable for me.

He suffered catastrophic injuries in 2 seasons (ACL's) and severe/serious injuries in 2 others (SC and AC Joint) and then there's the litany of normal injuries that knocked you out of games or temporarily. The idea that he's fine because he just had 2 seasons where he wasn't knocked out for the year by a catastrophe strikes me as absurd. His CV is his career and his career is littered with serious injuries occurring over and over and over again.

 

I like Penix a lot, but the medical red flags are real, and I really dgaf that he managed to make it through '22 and '23 w/o a total catastrophe happening when he had one or a serious one in virtually every other season he's ever played since high school.