The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[JamesMadisonSkins]

What I am sensing here ... we can't really go wrong.

 

We've heard from various different sources/angles that each of these 3 QBs would go #1 overall in many recent drafts. 

[DogofWar1]

I think someone in here mentioned a possibly scout/coach split on Maye/Daniels as one theory as to the inconsistent scuttlebutt and that theory is an interesting one.

 

Rich Eisen when talking about Daniels being QB2 mentioned that defensive coordinator/coaches at the combine were saying Daniels is their nightmare, and that SEC defensive coaches were saying the same thing.

 

But obviously defensive coaches are only part of the equation.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

I think someone in here mentioned a possibly scout/coach split on Maye/Daniels as one theory as to the inconsistent scuttlebutt and that theory is an interesting one.

 

Rich Eisen when talking about Daniels being QB2 mentioned that defensive coordinator/coaches at the combine were saying Daniels is their nightmare, and that SEC defensive coaches were saying the same thing.

 

But obviously defensive coaches are only part of the equation.

Yeah I could see that. Coaches would want Daniels because he presents a more immediate threat to the opponent and is probably better in the short term with his mobility. But scouts/FO people see Maye's upside and potential and see a superstar by year 3 or 4.

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

but the main draw with him has been his elite rushing ability/upside, something that Fields has already shown at the pro level

 

Too much focus on the rushing. Its great, but its just an X-factor.

 

Every QB will have to be able to produce w/ their arm, even those that run a lot.

Fields has not demonstrated a consistent ability to be even a decent passer. Every season has been below 2.6K yards w/ barely 60% completion percentages. Its very hard to find team success with production like that.

 

The general idea for JD is that he can be an NFL passer far beyond what Fields is and that is what makes him a way better option of the two.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

But in the meantime, the reason some in the media turn me off has nothing to do with Daniels.  It's 100% about how I recall how all of them were royally wrong about plenty of other QBs in the past.  So it's beyond me how they can feel this level authoratative about their opinions.  I got for example Sheehan touting Merril Hoge about how he's typically right about QBs.  And I am thinking dude, just google the dude and spend 5 minutes looking at his record on this -- and you'll find his track record is atrocious and probably even worse at getting it right than name the average fan.  I recall him back from the RG3 >>> Luck days but it goes well beyond that as I posted days back.

No question, none of these mediots had Herbert as 1B to Burrow's 1A, none of these mediots consistently warned us Zach Wilson would be the worst QB prospect to step on a field since Akili Smith, none of these mediots thought Trevor Lawrence would be Meh, none of these mediots thought Darnold would basically be a permanent backup within 3 years, none of them aggressively warned us that not only was Trubisky not worth a top pick, but that Trubisky wasn't worth a 7th rounder, or that Mahomes would be the best QB since Brady, over and over and over again they are as utterly hopeless as a golf fan, that's never watched a football game, being blind folded and told to pick up whichever football card most likely belongs to the Dan Marino Career rather than the Todd Blackledge career. None.

 

There is a monstrous lack of humility, and an arrogance about how and why....

 

I used to have it with QB's and still have it with other prospects, but after 36 years of watching Drafts and what not, I've been disabused of the idea that I know which QB's will hit and why. It's obvious at this point that while there are traits and skills that make you more likely to hit than joe random QB, it's largely impossible to tell who will hit and who wont and why amongst any Draft year's top 5 QB's. You just don't know, ever. The only thing that seems fairly reliable is that hit rate improves a bit as you climb into the top 10, and top 25ish, as compared to say, 60th-150th or whatever. 

 

I continue to believe the only thing most of us may or may not have some skill in is smoking out when a guy is more likely to suck, rather than when a guy is more likely to hit. As evidence, it was damn hard to find Brandon Weeden Fans, Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert fans, Mitch Trubisky fans, Danny Nickels or Haskins fans, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance fans, '22 class fans, people that were excited by Bryce Young's permanent membership in the Lollipop Guild etc There might be disagreements on whose gonna hit, but on this board? Few were fans of any QB going in the top 10 in '22, or of Wilson or Lance in '21 (I hated Wilson but was willing to take a crazy swing at Lance for the upside), Nickels and Haskins were both seen as 2nd/3rd round talents by nearly everyone, who liked Trubisky? Who liked those two "no chance there's a super bowl winning QB ever, named Blake or Blaine unless it's in a Key and Peele bit etc. 

 

It's weird that scouts, GM's, and especially draft media don't have a similar humility about who will hit. We'll see. The craziest thing for me here is I honestly believe all 3 will probably hit, and the only one I'm worried about at all is Daniels, mostly because of weird technical issues which crop up on QB Bust autopsies all the time (throwing with anticipation/throwing WR's open, using all parts of the field, staying in the pocket and using all those progressions to make a throwing decision etc), but I still see a lot of futures where his arm talent and athleticism make him a star unless he gets hurt (but he has to be willing to throw with anticipation and risk picks which even McShay talked about).  

[SoCalSkins]

18 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

I don’t think you do. You have him for two years, for the cost of a low third round pick. The Russell Wilson situation was very different because of what they gave up to get him. 

His fifth year option is 25 mil next year. If you don’t give him a deal prior to 2025, he will pull a Cousins. Franchise tag for a qb is 38 mil and will be well over 40 in 2026. 
 

Regardless, the guy simply sucks at playing football. Howell has way more upside. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, mac8887 said:

I just can’t get that Thursday night football game out of my head, he shredded us, and most of it was with his arm. I know our D was bad, but still, he showed out that game, and really showed what he is capable of.

 

His problem is inconsistency throwing the ball. If he can fix this, he can really break out, but that is a giant if, because he as yet to do so.
 

He still is somewhat intriguing because of how physically gifted he is, and I’m sure that some OC out there believes he can fix him and make him a top half of the league guy. 

He's got two entire collective seasons where he was basically a bottom 5ish QB. He's got one season where he was basically league average.

 

I wanted us to trade up for the guy three years ago and lost my mind at how stupid we were to take Jamin Davis (and we were) rather than trade up for Fields or trade down for JOK. I should be defending Fields, hell, have him on a bunch of dynasty teams (though I traded him in two leagues where I got offered enough to justify it), but we've seen 3 years worth of starts and the most improvement we've seen is at times, he's gone from god awful as a thrower to average. The difference between him and Wilson, is he can make the throws unlike Wilson, is a legit weapon, and as an athlete, can be a difference maker, but he simply hasn't improved enough as a passer to convince anyone he'd ever be above average, let alone good or great.

 

It's why its not worth it to go after him unless you're trapped in that zone of teams where your roster is too good to get you anywhere near the blue chip zone for QB classes in '24 and '26 etc. Then, sure, trade for him, if you look like an annual 13th-19th picking side, okay, but otherwise, its insanity. We're a bottom 3-6 team, easy, no need to go for Fields, it would be insanely stupid. 

[woodpecker]

6 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

His fifth year option is 25 mil next year. If you don’t give him a deal prior to 2025, he will pull a Cousins. Franchise tag for a qb is 38 mil and will be well over 40 in 2026. 
 

Regardless, the guy simply sucks at playing football. Howell has way more upside. 

We don’t agree on JF vs Sam but that’s cool. Curious what you would do at QB? Seems like you think they all suck and the rookies are all busts.

[mac8887]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

He's got two entire collective seasons where he was basically a bottom 5ish QB. He's got one season where he was basically league average.

 

I wanted us to trade up for the guy three years ago and lost my mind at how stupid we were to take Jamin Davis (and we were) rather than trade up for Fields or trade down for JOK. I should be defending Fields, hell, have him on a bunch of dynasty teams (though I traded him in two leagues where I got offered enough to justify it), but we've seen 3 years worth of starts and the most improvement we've seen is at times, he's gone from god awful as a thrower to average. The difference between him and Wilson, is he can make the throws unlike Wilson, is a legit weapon, and as an athlete, can be a difference maker, but he simply hasn't improved enough as a passer to convince anyone he'd ever be above average, let alone good or great.

 

It's why its not worth it to go after him unless you're trapped in that zone of teams where your roster is too good to get you anywhere near the blue chip zone for QB classes in '24 and '26 etc. Then, sure, trade for him, if you look like an annual 13th-19th picking side, okay, but otherwise, it’s insanity. We're a bottom 3-6 team, easy, no need to go for Fields, it would be insanely stupid. 

I don’t suggest or think we will trade for him, but I’m not as sure that he is a bust. He might pleasantly surprise whatever team he lands on. It won’t be this team. More than likeley he flames out at his next stop and hangs around the league as a backup.

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, woodpecker said:

We don’t agree on JF vs Sam but that’s cool. Curious what you would do at QB? Seems like you think they all suck and the rookies are all busts.

There are 10 humans on planet earth who can play QB at an elite or close to elite level any given year. Their ages range from 20 to 40. Given that age span, the amount of players who spend their entire lives from a young age with QB coaches and day after day of training, all that money available and yet only 10 people can do it well. 
 

It is far more likely a QB in a draft will be a bust than not. My preference is to trade up for Caleb because to me he is the most likely not to bust. I would give him a 15% chance of success. Maye would be my plan B. I give him a 10% chance of success. Daniels I believe is already a bust. He’s a train wreck waiting to happen and I have zero interest in that disaster. 
 

Fields is a proven bust in my opinion and Howell is 98% there. 
 

My option C would be if Peter’s doesn’t have a high grade in Maye is to trade back with a team for 2 future 1s plus their 1 this year, preferably a team that has a decent chance to end up with a top 5 pick. I don’t think this will happen because I believe Magic made some assurances to Kingsbury about what we will do to get a qb when he poached him from the Raiders. So most likely scenario is Maye.

 

 

[RWJ]

49 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I could see that. Coaches would want Daniels because he presents a more immediate threat to the opponent and is probably better in the short term with his mobility. But scouts/FO people see Maye's upside and potential and see a superstar by year 3 or 4.

Agree.  I think and view Rich Eisen as more of a host than analyst.  Some see today and some see the future.  I believe there is quicker potential with Daniels but more growth leading to better stats and play in the future with Maye.   

Edited March 6 by RWJ

[woodpecker]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

There are 10 humans on planet earth who can play QB at an elite or close to elite level any given year. Their ages range from 20 to 40. Given that age span, the amount of players who spend their entire lives from a young age with QB coaches and day after day of training, all that money available and yet only 10 people can do it well. 
 

It is far more likely a QB in a draft will be a bust than not. My preference is to trade up for Caleb because to me he is the most likely not to bust. I would give him a 15% chance of success. Maye would be my plan B. I give him a 10% chance of success. Daniels I believe is already a bust. He’s a train wreck waiting to happen and I have zero interest in that disaster. 
 

Fields is a proven bust in my opinion and Howell is 98% there. 
 

My option C would be if Peter’s doesn’t have a high grade in Maye is to trade back with a team for 2 future 1s plus their 1 this year, preferably a team that has a decent chance to end up with a top 5 pick. I don’t think this will happen because I believe Magic made some assurances to Kingsbury about what we will do to get a qb when he poached him from the Raiders. So most likely scenario is Maye.

 

 

Thanks. Pretty pessimistic I’d say, but not unreasonable. Seems like option C would be best if you think Maye is a 90% bust. And trading up at the probable cost of at least next years first seems like a terrible idea if you really think Caleb is 85% bust. Agree most likely scenario is Maye, which I will be happy with.

[Warhead36]

Those %s are awfully low. You might be right, but over the last ~25 years QBs taken in what were considered strong QB draft classes actually hit at over a 60% rate and it shoots up over 70% if you take out expansion teams and the Jets.

 

The QB hit rate plummets because of QBs taken high in bad QB classes.

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, woodpecker said:

Thanks. Pretty pessimistic I’d say, but not unreasonable. Seems like option C would be best if you think Maye is a 90% bust. And trading up at the probable cost of at least next years first seems like a terrible idea if you really think Caleb is 85% bust. Agree most likely scenario is Maye, which I will be happy with.

Last QB we drafted in the first who wasn’t a bust was Sammy Baugh! 
 

10% chance of success to be elite is not bad on my scale. I would draft Maye in a second. The only way you get an elite qb is to draft one for all intents and purposes. You are likely to miss every time so you have to keep swinging. 
 

I still think we can end up with Caleb and he pulls some craziness like Eli but if not Maye is fine by me. Regardless of who we get let’s not fall for a sunk cost fallacy. If the guy sucks cut our losses after 2 seasons max and move on. It’s a numbers game. You gotta keep trying. And by not suck I mean not elite potential. You pretty much know right away is a dude has a chance to be elite. We saw it with Sean Taylor. We saw it with Terry. We got fools gold with RG3 but still you normally know right away. 

[DiscoBob]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

I think someone in here mentioned a possibly scout/coach split on Maye/Daniels as one theory as to the inconsistent scuttlebutt and that theory is an interesting one.

 

I'm hoping that this is mostly our fan base reacting to a front office that doesn't consistent leak their plans to the media.

 

Here's to hoping, right?

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Playing into the theme of people all over the place.  Russini was on Sheehan.  She's hit and miss granted on stuff.

 

And again all this chats about who loves whom more is meaningless and just pure entertainment

 

A.  Thinks this team is staying pat at #2 and taking a Qb.

 

B.  This FO considers every possibilty as the nature of how they go about their business and not every FO operates that way

 

C.  Daniels and McCarthy had more buzz than she expected and feels they can go higher than expected.  Sheehan goes then well does that mean Daniels is going 1 and she said no.  All the smoke is the Bears want Caleb

 

D.  Sheehan asked her to pick who she thinks Washington takes.  Her response Drake Maye.   She said she's guessing

Edited March 6 by Skinsinparadise

[SoCalSkins]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Those %s are awfully low. You might be right, but over the last ~25 years QBs taken in what were considered strong QB draft classes actually hit at over a 60% rate and it shoots up over 70% if you take out expansion teams and the Jets.

 

The QB hit rate plummets because of QBs taken high in bad QB classes.

Given how many are drafted and how many are elite and their age span difference, it’s not possible to have the hit rate you are describing. We need an elite level QB. Not a okay one and not a slightly better than ok like Cousins. We need a guy unanimously considered top 10 or top 5 year after year. 10% hit rate on those in top 5 of the draft is about right in my opinion.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

I would give a 2 and Jon Allen or both 2s. No future firsts. 

I would initially offer #2 plus our 2025 first and 2026 second.

 

Get Caleb and retain all other 2024 picks.

[DogofWar1]

How are we defining "elite" here?

 

Or I guess, how are we defining "not a bust?"

Edited March 6 by DogofWar1

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, Est.1974 said:

I would initially offer #2 plus our 2025 first and 2026 second.

 

Get Caleb and retain all other 2024 picks.

The first next year could be a top 10 or top 5 pick. Only way we get Caleb is if he pulls an Eli and if he does that then that devalues his trade compensation. I would leave first out of it. You throw in a pro bowl player it makes it an easier sell for Chicago to their fans. 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Given how many are drafted and how many are elite and their age span difference, it’s not possible to have the hit rate you are describing. We need an elite level QB. Not a okay one and not a slightly better than ok like Cousins. We need a guy unanimously considered top 10 or top 5 year after year. 10% hit rate on those in top 5 of the draft is about right in my opinion.

By that standard yes. When I mean hit I just mean guys who end up as quality(as in above league average)starters.

 

Finding true stars, the elite best of the best is ridiculously difficult, but you gotta keep trying. Having that guy is the best way to ensure long term success and is basically like playing the league on Easy mode.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What I am sensing here ... we can't really go wrong.

 

We've heard from various different sources/angles that each of these 3 QBs would go #1 overall in many recent drafts. 

I want to feel that way but I don't. The concerns with Daniels to me are just more substantial: Whispy injury risk, took 4/5 years to finally actually look elite as to a few games with Maye, does not use the whole field, does not throw with anticipation consistently, production makes for a question as to whether this a Burrow scenario where everyone was great, or is a more common example of a player taking advantage of elite weapons which made him? 

 

Maye has really none of those concerns, at all, he's got two: mechanics and feet, and falling off a bit in his second year as starter instead of improving, but the latter one and the former are both explicable (terrible OL play, and terrible talent in general, especially in his second year). 

 

I'm very happy we're in the blue chip zone, but to me, the same kind of mistakes that have caused GM's to make stupid decisions like Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, Trubisky etc, seem in place here with Daniels. There are real, very tangible concerns that are harder, to me, to fix with Daniels than maye, and among what they do well, I view Maye's traits as more valuable, and more rare. I'm basically more impressed by what Maye does well, than what Daniels does, and more fearful over what Daniels doesn't do well versus what Maye doesn't, and in terms of the concerns in the profiles in general. 

 

I am hopeful we won't go Daniels, but the chances we might just ramped up for me, with this reporting. 

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

How are we defining "elite" here?

 

Or I guess, how are we defining "not a bust?"

I’m defining elite as Mahommes, Burrow, Payton Manning etc. 

 

Not a bust is getting second contract from the team that drafted you. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

21 hours ago, dyst said:

If every QB could improve; then every QB would become god-tier. Some guys don’t have the motivation and others just can’t get better no matter how hard they try. We have to hope we land a guy that translates to the NFL and then has the drive to keep getting better.  

 

 

To my eyes based on this one single  criteria— “quantifiable ability to consistently improve each year in college”— there is a demonstrable leader on that one factor.

 

Of the top 3 qbs, two of which by all accounts, we will be choosing from at pick two, only one consistently and quantifiably improved every year he played.

 

However, even that is not enough for me to make a definitive choice of which quarterback I would select in the draft.

 

 

Now for the weird stuff…

 

 

Is past always prologue?

 

If one only examines acorns will they miss the miracle of the Oak tree?

 

Predicting who will, or who won’t, fulfill  human potential is more the province of mysticism than science.

 

For me, such a task is like trying to divine the contours of a 4th dimension by examining  a tesseract, or put another way, examining what an ephemeral shadow of a 4th dimension looks like in our 3 dimensional world.

 

What we need is a connection with the “future” to insure that we make the right choice—

 

Or rather, a connection to what Einstein called “the persistent illusion of time” that in our linear locked existence we mislabel as “future”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So to guarantee that we make the right choice all we need is the equivalent of Murph, her dad, a wormhole, a super black hole, and a benevolent Commanders loving intelligence from the 4th dimension to assist us and we’d have the answer.

 

Until then it’s up to Adam Peters, Quinn and the rest of our brain trust.

 

 

[Est.1974]

Just now, SoCalSkins said:

The first next year could be a top 10 or top 5 pick. Only way we get Caleb is if he pulls an Eli and if he does that then that devalues his trade compensation. I would leave first out of it. You throw in a pro bowl player it makes it an easier sell for Chicago to their fans. 

If we get Caleb, keep all other picks, and make a proper run in FA, I’m fine with the risk associated with trading those future picks. 
 

Ultimately you would do it with confidence you are getting your franchise QB. If you don’t think that’s what Caleb can be, you don’t trade up.