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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


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21 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The reason I’d feel okay whether we draft Maye or Daniels (though I strongly prefer Maye) is that I know both have an excellent work ethic. That, to me, is the #1 criteria to becoming a great QB at a young age in this league. 

 

 

With you Maye #1 but if Daniels and really, we don't know it could be Daniels too but I have been had Maye #1.  I hope they dedicate themselves 110% like CJ has.  

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I don't really question Daniels's intangibles either. My issue with him is his age diluting his upside and production and the fact that his passing is reliant on his running ability. Those type of QBs do not sustain and mobility/athleticism drops off quick. Look at Lamar Jackson. He's 27 and already not as fast as he once was(he's still super fast). And Jackson came into the league at 21, not 23 like JD will be(he'll actually turn 24 his rookie year).

 

And then of course there is the one read and run style of offense, the body type/durability issues...yikes. Now if we were picking 3rd he'd still be absolutely worth taking a shot and I'd be thrilled with the upside, but taking him over Maye, who is also extremely high ceiling without having anywhere near as low a floor, just isn't logical to me.

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I say we just admire Chicago's trade prowess, point our fingers and laugh at the Panthers, and otherwise stay out of that fray.

 

Nothing we can do trade-wise would be better than taking Maye or Daniels and developing them with our new massively improved coaching staff. No goofy Snyder-esque business, please.

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11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't really question Daniels's intangibles either. My issue with him is his age diluting his upside and production and the fact that his passing is reliant on his running ability. Those type of QBs do not sustain and mobility/athleticism drops off quick. Look at Lamar Jackson. He's 27 and already not as fast as he once was(he's still super fast). And Jackson came into the league at 21, not 23 like JD will be(he'll actually turn 24 his rookie year).

 

And then of course there is the one read and run style of offense, the body type/durability issues...yikes. Now if we were picking 3rd he'd still be absolutely worth taking a shot and I'd be thrilled with the upside, but taking him over Maye, who is also extremely high ceiling without having anywhere near as low a floor, just isn't logical to me.


Valid concerns. I wonder if the age factor can be mitigated as he develops more and more into a traditional pocket passer, less reliant on his scrambling ability.

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36 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't really question Daniels's intangibles either. My issue with him is his age diluting his upside and production and the fact that his passing is reliant on his running ability. Those type of QBs do not sustain and mobility/athleticism drops off quick. Look at Lamar Jackson. He's 27 and already not as fast as he once was(he's still super fast). And Jackson came into the league at 21, not 23 like JD will be(he'll actually turn 24 his rookie year).

 

And then of course there is the one read and run style of offense, the body type/durability issues...yikes. Now if we were picking 3rd he'd still be absolutely worth taking a shot and I'd be thrilled with the upside, but taking him over Maye, who is also extremely high ceiling without having anywhere near as low a floor, just isn't logical to me.

40-4 TD to int in the SEC is nothing to sleep on. vs. 23-9 for Maye in the ACC. I just don't see "it" with Maye; yes, he has the measurables. Also, I think Daniels has more experience as a starter than Maye.     

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I’ll trust this administration and staff to make the right call between Maye or Daniels.  However, if they trade the farm for Williams, they’ll have to earn any trust back because the history on those kind of draft trades is not great (see RG III, Lance, and Young).

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15 minutes ago, jlevy08 said:

I’ll trust this administration and staff to make the right call between Maye or Daniels.  However, if they trade the farm for Williams, they’ll have to earn any trust back because the history on those kind of draft trades is not great (see RG III, Lance, and Young).


Agreed. I went back and looked at the last ~10 years of drafts, and all the trades into the top 3 to select QBs were massive failures for the organizations that traded the farm away to go get them. 
 

2023: Young at #1 - TBD but not looking good so far

2022: No QBs in top 3

2021: Trey Lance at #3 - failure that SF was fortunate enough to overcome by good drafting/trades elsewhere 

2020: No QB trades in top 3

2019: No QB trades in top 3

2018: Sam Darnold at #3 - failure that NYJ still hasn’t recovered from

2017: Mitch Trubisky at #2 - failure that CHI still hasn’t recovered from

2016: Jared Goff at #1 and Carson Wentz at #2 - both teams had success initially, but ultimately moved on (both teams eventually won a SB b/c they had great rosters elsewhere and great GMs + neither won had to give up as much as it would typically take to trade up to these spots as neither QB prospect was considered generational or “can’t miss” 

2015: No QB trades in top 3

2014: No QB trades in top 3

2013: No QBs in top 3

2012: We all know how this went 

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17 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:


Agreed. I went back and looked at the last ~10 years of drafts, and all the trades into the top 3 to select QBs were massive failures for the organizations that traded the farm away to go get them. 
 

2023: Young at #1 - TBD but not looking good so far

2022: No QBs in top 3

2021: Trey Lance at #3 - failure that SF was fortunate enough to overcome by good drafting/trades elsewhere 

2020: No QB trades in top 3

2019: No QB trades in top 3

2018: Sam Darnold at #3 - failure that NYJ still hasn’t recovered from

2017: Mitch Trubisky at #2 - failure that CHI still hasn’t recovered from

2016: Jared Goff at #1 and Carson Wentz at #2 - both teams had success initially, but ultimately moved on (both teams eventually won a SB b/c they had great rosters elsewhere and great GMs + neither won had to give up as much as it would typically take to trade up to these spots as neither QB prospect was considered generational or “can’t miss” 

2015: No QB trades in top 3

2014: No QB trades in top 3

2013: No QBs in top 3

2012: We all know how this went 

That also demonstrates the failure rate of QBs selected that high….

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Just now, Est.1974 said:

That also demonstrates the failure rate of QBs selected that high….


I only listed the QBs that teams traded up for. There are definitely QB success stories for teams that stood pat and drafted a QB in their original position in the top 3. 


Those teams didn’t have to give up any assets for a top QB prospect, which increased their chances of success. 
 

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1 hour ago, NOLA2DC said:

40-4 TD to int in the SEC is nothing to sleep on. vs. 23-9 for Maye in the ACC. I just don't see "it" with Maye; yes, he has the measurables. Also, I think Daniels has more experience as a starter than Maye.     

 

Dwayne haskins td/int ratio in His final year in the big ten was 50-8

 

Josh Allen's td/int ratio his final year in the mountain west was 16/6

 

Stats like this are just one small part of projecting nfl success.

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Sports Illustrated stole my trade suggestion 😂 :
 

Washington Gets 

- QB Justin Fields

- 2024 NFL Draft: No. 9 and No. 110 Overall Picks

- 2025 NFL Draft: 2nd Round Pick (Carolina Panthers)

 

Chicago Gets

- 2024 NFL Draft: No. 2 Overall

 

That's an egregious overpay. They're moving up from #9 to #2, we'd need at least a future 1st.

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23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK.  And apparently this FO likes Lockett.   Jay admitted this in a recent podcast.  But not sure how they had them tiered.

 

 

OK, yeah that's pretty how I look at it.  Don't jump down a tier but if you have multiple targets close, trade down.

 

 

Daniels could work.  But he's thin and looks breakable.  

 

I prefer Maye for multiple reasons.  And the dude is mobile too -- not to the extent of Daniels but he's more in that Daniel Jones-Josh Allen category of mobility.


I'm kinda intrigued by the whole weight and injuries thing in the NFL, especially for quarterbacks. People say being heavier makes you less prone to injuries, right? Gonna dig into that for fun. Noticed the dude's size, but not sure how much it really matters – not that I'm saying it's the right way to look at it. Just my two cents.

 

19 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

This is where @wit33and I have had debates before. He seems to lump all QBs who have the ability to run into one category: "dual threat QB". But I have two categories: "dual threat QB" and "running QB"

 

A dual threat QB is a guy who's first weapon is his arm, but who has the ability to extend plays and make you pay with his legs if you let him or try to take away the passing game. That's guys like Mahomes, Dak, Wilson, Tua, Stroud, Rodgers in his prime, and to a certain extent Burrow.

 

Haha, never claimed Mahomes, Tua, Stroud, Rodgers in our debates. If you toss them into the dual-threat QB mix, it feels like 80-90% of QBs should be on that list. They're not exactly running the show in the ground game or imparting it heavily. The league's gotten more athletic at QB, ditching those old-school ideas—the baseline is John Elway athleticism now 😳. Younger Wilson, back when he was crushing it in multiple SBs, now that was an elite dual-threat dude – and that was like 15 years ago!

 

19 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

A running QB is a guy who's first weapon is his legs and second is his arm. These QBs are usually only mediocre passers and tend to struggle when a defense schemes to take away or limit their running ability. That's guys like Lamar, Cam, RG3, and now Richardson. Obviously with Richardson we have next to no sample size, but we saw with the other three guys that without the threat of their legs, their passing didn't really scare anyone.

 

You seem a bit closed-minded on this, not catching the ongoing shift in the NFL. The basic athleticism at QB is on the upswing – maybe not at the extreme elite level, but the baseline is definitely climbing.
 

It’s not to say your precious ideas of what makes a great QB don’t remain in many ways, but there’s different paths to get there.

 

In the 80s it was believed a shooting guard/wing player  couldn’t be the best player on an NBA championship team. In the 2000s shooting too many threes and not playing inside out was considered bad basketball. I love using the NBA because it always seems 10-15 years ahead of the NFL. Another example for the fun of it is the middle of the field becoming more position less to counter the high octane passing offenses, much like the NBA became position less 15 or so years ago. 

 

19 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

The big hope for running QBs is that they actually evolve into dual threat QBs, but it rarely happens. Allen was closer to a running QB at first but then did manage to evolve. He's really the only one though. Wilson maybe as well.

 

So IMO his whole "dual threat QBs drafted in round 1 rarely bust and have the highest floors" argument is very disingenuous, because while dual threat QBs do fit that narrative, the jury is still very much out on running QBs. Lamar isn't a bust, neither was Cam (though I think they're both a bit overrated), RG3 was a bust. Richardson we won't know for another year or two.

 

My bad if it came off as disingenuous; never tossed those guys into the dual-threat QB mix. Usually, I'm talking about Jackson, younger Wilson, Newton, Kaepernick, Tebow, Allen, Hurts, Murray, RG3, etc., as the elite dual-threat crew.

 

In my observation, QBs with elite dual-threat skills drafted in rounds 1 or 2 tend to bust less than those less athletically gifted. While I'm up for a chat about the ceiling, it seems the floor is higher for early-drafted athletic QBs. I reckon the NFL might have this wrong, but getting rid of the old guard takes time. Many teams still have dinosaurs running the show – not denying there's truth in their approach, but they're often limited by their old-school thinking.
 

No model's flawless in the NFL, but the floor looks solid today. I'll admit, the elite dual-threat advantage has dwindled compared to 15 years ago with the whole league getting more athletic at QB.

 

It's wild – if you can't create, extend, and take off, your draft stock seems to take a hit in today's analysis! Imagine saying that 20- 25 years ago. 

 

 

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't really question Daniels's intangibles either. My issue with him is his age diluting his upside and production and the fact that his passing is reliant on his running ability. Those type of QBs do not sustain and mobility/athleticism drops off quick. Look at Lamar Jackson. He's 27 and already not as fast as he once was(he's still super fast). And Jackson came into the league at 21, not 23 like JD will be(he'll actually turn 24 his rookie year).

 

Just a heads up: Lamar was the NFL MVP at 27.

The age factor seems a bit weak; not sure it holds much water with this logic.

 

I'm hooked on Daniels' height and smooth throwing mechanics – a bit of an anomaly among elite dual-threat guys in the past two decades.

Initially pegged him as a mid-4.5 40-yard dash guy, but there are reports he might be sub-4.4. If that's the case – a definite 100000% all-in on that floor and upside.

 

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

 

And then of course there is the one read and run style of offense, the body type/durability issues...yikes. Now if we were picking 3rd he'd still be absolutely worth taking a shot and I'd be thrilled with the upside, but taking him over Maye, who is also extremely high ceiling without having anywhere near as low a floor, just isn't logical to me.

 

Daniels brings an elite run game floor that directly affects time of possession, often reduces turnovers, keeps your defense and the opposing team's offense off the field, and holds the potential for a dynamic red zone offense.
 

Just to be clear, I'm generally inclined toward athletic freaks at any position, including QB. However, I'm not counting Caleb out; getting him would be fantastic. Currently leaning towards Drake Maye at the 3rd position on my list due to not knowing his potential superpower entering the league. Not suggesting his arm talent won't develop, but many powerful arms are active in the league and on sitting the bench.

 

I'm not firmly taking a stance on him right now, and it probably won't change during this process. If Washington drafts him, I'll be hoping he becomes a savant and studies the game maniacally for his arm talent to flourish and becomes a wizard at reading the field. With Caleb and Daniels, there's no hoping needed – even as a casual fan, I'm confident they'll bring instant impact and known variables to a game full of chaos.

Edited by wit33
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12 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Bears with Calebitis - it sure seems like Fields will be ripe for the taking on the cheap. Hoge makes note how he's had 3 OCs in 3 years (cough same as Sam) so he's not a write off. I feel like Chicagos terrible OCs and injuries have held him back most. He abused our D maybe better than any QB we faced.

 

The key to nabbing Fields is not having to grossly overpay him in his next contract.

We're not doing that. Somebody is probably going to trade for him but it's not us. It's a real interesting debate because he hasn't advanced too much as a thrower if at all, '22 was some improvement, but '23 looked like a regression, and he's never looked the part either, he just looks like an elite athlete with a strong arm. He's a weapon, but can he be a starter for a top 8 or top 4 team? I'm not seeing it. He's just not consistent enough, what kind of salary does he get, knowing there's only 1+1 left, you've got to pay him. I don't know, Kyler was far better '19-'21. 

 

Kyler was 15th in QBR in '19, 

Kyler was 13th to 15th in QBR in '20 depending upon how you set the minimums for passes thrown

Kyler was 8th in QBR in '21 (a HUGE decline in QBR performances that year, kind of weird)

Fields was basically worse than all starters and a pile of backups in '21, basically only Glennon with his few starts at 40th, rated worse in QBR than Fields amongst the top 40. 

Then he bounces back with around a 15th finish in '22, with Kyler struggling more in '22. 

Then Fields drops to the low 20's again in '23.

 

To me the key is avoiding him entirely. I mentioned the other day, if we'd been screwed in slotting, too far away to really commit to a trade up, I really would have considered a trade for him, but I probably wouldn't have paid what they wanted (not giving up a 2nd unless I get a legit pick back) and I would've wanted any '25 compensation to include QBR performance upgrade of pick only. IF the dude sucks in '24, I'm not giving them a 3rd or a 4th for that in addition to a 3rd or even a second in '24. 

 

So they probably dont bite. Im fine with that, give me JJ then, 4+1 contract is better anyway, because after 3 years Fields looks more bust than hit, or moderate floor QB as thrower. He's had two horrendous seasons and 1 average season. Not exactly inspiring, and he costs a ton of money after '25? Straight pass. 

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13 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

Dwayne haskins td/int ratio in His final year in the big ten was 50-8

 

Josh Allen's td/int ratio his final year in the mountain west was 16/6

 

Stats like this are just one small part of projecting nfl success.

 

 

 

True and Mahomes came from the mighty Texas Tech. People are looking at the 2022 season with Maye when he had 38-7 td/int. I think Daniels having more experience as a starter is a good thing, and people forget Burrow was an older guy who's last year as a grad student. Granted, it boils down to the system your OC/HC prefers. Hopefully, they can sit for a year.

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4 hours ago, MrJL said:

 

nope, only the drafting team gets that.  I mean I suppose they could invoke it then trade the guy

 

Personally, I don't want Fields. He's had three years of failure to the point the team that drafted him is giving up on him.  At least Howell only has one year of failure if we're not drafting a QB

In fairness to the guy, he was a league average QB in '22, after being horrible in '21, and god awful in '23. But the idea that Fields makes sense in anyway when we have the 2nd pick is 1000% insanity to me. The cheap contract is donezo after '24, AND we are going to suck in '24, so its not like we can take advantage of the cheap deal like the seahawks did with Wilson or the Chiefs did with Mahomes. We are basically gonna have a cheap deal with him during a 4-6 win season next year, then pay through the nose for what has for now been a bottom 5th percentile starting QB in '21 and '23? In what world does that make any sense at all? Any? None. 

 

If you're dead set against Maye and Daniels (which is insanity to me to begin with) and want to trade down, trade down take JJ and go from there, but you see, the trade down folks can't do that, because 90% of them want to trade down for something other than QB in which case we're beyond totally ------ then, because what do you get for QB? One of the horror show losers in the garbage '25 class? Trade for a crap vet like Fields or Cousins? None of those ideas make any sense at all, and if you take JJ later, you're not getting your OT or Bowers or MHjr, or Nabers in the trade down unless you decide we can somehow solve the 21st century version of the rubrik's cube of winning without a QB worth a ----. Good luck with that.

 

It's not a plan, it's a prayer. And it will go unanswered just like the previous 29 years of them. 

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2 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

True and Mahomes came from the mighty Texas Tech. People are looking at the 2022 season with Maye when he had 38-7 td/int. I think Daniels having more experience as a starter is a good thing, and people forget Burrow was an older guy who's last year as a grad student. Granted, it boils down to the system your OC/HC prefers. Hopefully, they can sit for a year.

 

I think the evaluators put less stock in numbers than we do.

 

I'd imagine it's more about watching film and seeing what they're physically capable of doing and then trying to project those traits to the nfl and then combine that evaluation with how smart are they, how football knowledgeable are they and what kind of person are they, do they inspire confidence in those around them, are they a good person off the field etc.

 

Numbers alone can be very misleading, put too much stock in them and you have the Colt Brennans of the world going in the first round.

 

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1 hour ago, NOLA2DC said:

40-4 TD to int in the SEC is nothing to sleep on. vs. 23-9 for Maye in the ACC. I just don't see "it" with Maye; yes, he has the measurables. Also, I think Daniels has more experience as a starter than Maye.     

Using raw stats compare college prospects is an awful evaluation tool.

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4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

That trade is horrendous

It's like they were listening to Kiper in his dumb--- podcast where he suggested Atlanta do that, and his cohost didn't have the balls to call him flat out nuts to suggest Atlanta is going to trade a top 10 first for a QB they didn't want in the top 10 when he actually carried infinitely more upside three years ago. Instead, now the cheap contract is donezo, but Atlanta is going to spend a top 10 pick on Fields, now that he's played 2 horrific, straight garbage seasons, and has to be signed to a cap killing contract after he fails in '23? In what universe is that happening? The only one is one in which the new staff are ---- canned immediately after one season. It's the height of idiocy. NEVER HAPPENING, and if it does, the fans should give the owner and FO empty seats for every game until the idiots who made the decision are cashiered. 

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18 minutes ago, wit33 said:


I'm kinda intrigued by the whole weight and injuries thing in the NFL, especially for quarterbacks. People say being heavier makes you less prone to injuries, right? Gonna dig into that for fun. Noticed the dude's size, but not sure how much it really matters – not that I'm saying it's the right way to look at it. Just my two cents.

 

 

He's a slight build guy.  But its not just that, he runs into contact and when he gets hit, he comes off like he was hit by a freight train

 

 

 

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Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He's a slight build guy.  But its not just that, he runs into contact and when he gets hit, he comes off like he was hit by a freight train

 

 

 

Yep and he aint gonna beat guys like Thibodeaux or Parsons to the edge very often. 

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4 hours ago, DWinzit said:

I am not sold on any of the QB's in the draft. Those added picks this year and next would be incredible in setting the team up for now and the future. But the idea of Fields running the team makes me nauseous.

and you'd have no QB, so good luck with that team stacked with players with no QB. Check out Atlanta's record the last 3 years to find out how that plan works for a team, ask their, checks notes, recently fired coach for what he thinks of his ex-GM's plan of ignoring QB, and drafting best non-QB available for the offense 3 years straight, well, you can ask the GM too because he's out on his rear.

 

The plan doesn't work. We'll suck next year too, so if you want trade down goodies, we can always do it then. We're probably not picking 2nd, but I'll be completely stunned if we don't have a top 10ish pick after '24. 

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My question for those who want to completely punt at QB this draft is: wtf exactly are you looking for? There are no guarantees either way, but the big 3 this year are all legitimate blue chippers. Realistically youre not gonna be in a position to draft someone this good again for a long time if ever. 

Also I think people are underselling Maye’s athelticism and all around physical tools. This isnt some stiff in the pocket or low upside tomato can like a Kenny Pickett. Maye will probably run around a 4.5-4.6 40 paired with his big tall frame to go along with a top notch arm and ability to attack every part of the field. I dont think there is much difference in ceiling between Maye and Daniels, in fact Ill go ahead and say Maye being younger and a better passer gives him a HIGHER ceiling while also having a higher floor. He truly is the best of all worlds.

 

We are incredibly lucky the 2nd best QB in this class is this good. Hed be a slam dunk 1/1 almost any other year.

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7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep and he aint gonna beat guys like Thibodeaux or Parsons to the edge very often. 

 

I can't find that stat anymore but I recall one that showed when he's flushed out of the pocket he just takes off an insane amount of times, miles more than the average QB in the NFL.  He will have to adjust and learn to lean on throwing off platform versus taking off in the NFL.  That is likely another big adjustment for him.

 

I noticed that some who tout Daniels, just ignore that stuff and focus on what he does well.  That's cool.  But IMHO they miss the big picture in the evaluation.  If all i did is focus on what Daniels does well, he might be the first QB taken in the draft.

 

But there are things he doesn't do much of that he has to learn how to do in the NFL.

 

A.  throw with anticipation on the first-2nd level

B.  throw off platform a lot more than he does now

C. Protect himself as a runner

D.  throw contested balls

E. throw to the 2nd level.

 

If you look at Daniels in a vacuum he's fantastic.  I was watching him against Alabama against this morning because I was watching Bramwell and wow did he have a lot of time to throw the ball.  Great protection.  Great receivers -- who are wide open and can go get the ball on his deep throws.   I then watched Maye again -- the Virginia and South Carolina game and the dude had no help.  Heck, LSU's 3rd WR, Lacy would be Carolina's #1 guy. 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep and he aint gonna beat guys like Thibodeaux or Parsons to the edge very often. 

That was the SEC, so the speed does translate, and you're talking about all-pro guys who very few players out run.  

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2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can't find that stat anymore but I recall one that showed when he's flushed out of the pocket he just takes off an insane amount of times, miles more than the average QB in the NFL.  He will have to adjust and learn to lean on throwing off platform versus taking off in the NFL.  That is likely another big adjustment for him.

 

I noticed that some who tout Daniels, just ignore that stuff and focus on what he does well.  That's cool.  But IMHO they miss the big picture in the evaluation.  If all i did is focus on what Daniels does well, he might be the first QB taken in the draft.

 

But there are things he doesn't do much of that he has to learn how to do in the NFL.

 

A.  throw with anticipation on the first-2nd level

B.  throw off platform a lot more than he does now

C. Protect himself as a runner

D.  throw contested balls

E. throw to the 2nd level.

 

If you look at Daniels in a vacuum he's fantastic.  I was watching him against Alabama against this morning because I was watching Bramwell and wow did he have a lot of time to throw the ball.  Great protection.  Great receivers -- who are wide open and can go get the ball on his deep throws.   I then watched Maye again -- the Virginia and South Carolina game and the dude had no help.  Heck, LSU's 3rd WR, Lacy would be Carolina's #1 guy. 

 

Yep in total agreement. If were picking 3rd Id be thrilled at taking a shot at Daniels. At 2nd there is no way you take him over Maye unless Maye just completely bombs the interview process.

Just now, NOLA2DC said:

That was the SEC, so the speed does translate, and you're talking about all-pro guys who very few players out run.  

We face those guys four times a year. We aint beatin em with our QB taking off 10 times a game and getting killed.

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